mental to take 13 tonight!!

Chieftain's Choice & Ballyboley still in , they tick all the boxes for this race and Wicklow Brave for the combination tricast

Fascino Rustico solid e/w chance

sixth in the Supreme last year I have taken the 33/1 about Wicklow Brave

Sign of a Victory big chance off top weight. Can't remember the last time the top weight in this wasn't rated over 150. Has it ever even happened?

Don't mind Henderson saying the ground won't suit. There is absolutely ZERO evidence that the horse must have good ground. Going by the horses action and breeding he is in fact much more likely to PREFER softer going. The biggest problems this horse will have are: 1. Will he settle? 2. The fact that Geraghty will have him 6 horses wide all the way round. 3. Because Geraghty & Henderson have decided he doesn't like the ground and has it all to do with top weight, will Geraghty even bother riding him properly? Remember Oscar Whisky in the Paddy Power? They went into that race with the exact same fears they have for this race and as a result Geraghty didn't really even try to win when the horse would certainly have won if given a chance from 3 out rather than just trying to win up the run in. Forgot he was in a race there that day. If Geraghty can't come there on the bit after the last then I can see him giving up. Must take this into consideration if backing the horse.

Overall CALIPTO is certainly the most solid. Sure to be on the premises.

Both Ferguson horses have a chance also as does the Quinn horse by Kings Theatre.

just the 4 CV?

STS will be pleased


just fascino rustico  e/w for me

nice trade cvb

Aso @ 50/1 for me.

Alleged, there isn't just one horse who is value in a big handicap, there are many. The differing stake levels of the backable horses accounts for how much I fancy their chances in relation to their price. Dig up last years betfair hurdle thread and see who my main pick was and who my secondary one was.

Noc asked me to do an analysis on more than one bet in the same race and it came out as more profitable to not stick to one bet than to force yourself to just back one. After all £5 @ 100.0 on a horse you believe should be in the 20/1 region is always worth it.

Made my final shortlist for this very competitive field(in random order):

1. VASCO DU RONCERAY has standout form being pitched at the highest level last seasons. His soft ground form looks very good being 7 lenghts behind Far West 2 seasons ago and beating last time out De Boitron by 5 lengths. Has a useful 3lb claimer on board and I see him getting involved @ E/W at 33/1

2. LIGHTENTERTAINMENT has climbed the ladder steadily but surely. His wins are by short margins however last time out he was in front of both Dell Arca and Royal Irish Hussar(admittedly receiving chunks of weights from them) but the handicapper only put him 5 pounds up for that. Its incredible to think he's still capable of more after already improving 34 pounds from the end of last season but I admit I don't know why but he always seem to find a bit more when put against better company. This one will either be in front at the finish or will finally get exposed and finish way down the line so WIN only @ 20/1

3. AMORE ALATO is a consistent type bar the aintree novices hurdle in which something went amiss. Has a very interesting form line behind Irving on level weights and also on todays soft ground. The 7lb claimer could be of huge help however she needs to get the fractions right up front, otherwise will finish out of placings. WIN only @ 25/1

4. CHIEFTAIN´S CHOICE was impressive on his last outings, handicapper penalised him 7 lb but could still have lots in hand considering his famous sire has produced so many top quality jumpers. He puts his best foot forward on soft conditions and is a live contender. Nice value as well @ 16/1 E/W

The official going is Soft / g to s in places. It's forecast to be a dry and breezy day, so its possible the going may change, worth keeping an eye on this as it will make a big difference to some.

Also Clerk of Course said wind gets under the covers there unlike tracks so could be less holding than people might think.

good luck all, I'm off to Newbury today. :)

Good luck Sonko. We can both celebrate if Ballybolly wins

just setting for newbury  meself

Leaving at 11, as it is a 15 minute walk

Fine morning for racing......envious of CVB,A22 AND IBRA as newbury was once my local track,have a great day and a profitable one.

Devilish handicap with history of producing some good winners,some good cases made for plenty and like GI shortlist as long as you like.Gone with the lightweight/novice improver route,and the pin has fallen on Ballybolley.Same stable as last years winner,and won the same race at aintree that S O Ginge did,form going into today not quite as strong as that one,weighted accordingly.Regardless result,one for the video,plenty have been well beaten here but gone on to run well at the bigger meetings coming up.
GI stuck the winner up last year at 66/1,lets hope someboby covers todays winner in this thread.

Good Luck All.

Had a quick run through of the trends, and this is what it came up with:

Chieftain´s Choice 88%
Forced Family Fun 88%
On Tour    87%
Arzal 81%
Fascino Rustico    80%
Sign Of A Victory 79%
Amore Alato 79%
Activial 78%
Aso 78%
Ballybolley 74%
Wicklow Brave 74%
Bordoni    73%
Balgarry 73%
Jolly´s Cracked It 73%
Calipto    72%
Pine Creek 71%
Vasco Du Ronceray 69%
Ebony Express 67%
Violet Dancer 67%
Goodwood Mirage    66%
Sleepy Haven 55%
Cheltenian 50%
Swing Bowler 47%
Lightentertainment 44%

Qewy win just now gives Aso's claims a boost

Looks like decent ground, which rules out a few from my shortlist, but it will suit Ballybolly who I've backed. It may be that Sleepy Haven has reached his peak mark and doesn't have anything more to come, but 80/1 is a huge price for a young progressive sort so needs backed. I have those two and my antipost punt on Ebony Express running for me.

GL everyone.

It was a lame excuse