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2015-2016 HANDICAP PREVIEW

2015-2016 HANDICAP PREVIEW

06 Aug 15 19:02
I have added the Season 2014/2015 to the results I published at the start of last season to give as accurate analysis as possible.

Looking at the results of each League in turn, I hope to find trends in the results which will help us locate the League handicap winners for the upcoming season.

I have used the handicap results for the last 6 or 7 seasons using the “average” handicap of all the main bookmakers who offer this betting option. The bookmakers used are, Corals, Hills, Bet 365, Ladbrokes, VC, PP, Betfred, Stan James and ****.

Some of the trends are very interesting, to me anyway, and can be used to add or delete a team to your short list .

I have found betting on the League handicaps very profitable and have landed a number of decent multiple bets over the years and I'd just like to share my methods and my enthusiasm for this betting medium.

Those who remember last years thread will have noted that my recommended selections would have landed a return of £1663.75 for an outlay of £32 if done in 2x2x2x2 = 16 x £1 each way fourfolds.

Of course you have to source out the best handicaps. That may not necessarily be with the bookmaker who is giving your team the greatest start as you also have to factor in what start the bookmaker is giving to the competition.

For example in the Scottish Premiership, Ladbrokes have Hearts on 33 and Dundee Utd on 35, whilst Corals have the teams on 28 and 38 points respectively, that is a massive 8 point swing in favour of Dundee Utd by playing at Coral.

PREMIERSHIP RESULTS USING THE LAST 7 SEASONS

2008-09 Stoke(P) 52 Fulham 44 Liverpool 9 Man Utd Scr (Final League Positions Were: 12 / 7 / 2 / 1)
Europa League Teams: Aston Villa, Everton, Man City, Portsmouth, Tottenham.
2009-10 Birmingham(P) 48 Tottenham 22 Aston Villa 26 Blackburn 40 (Final League Positions Were: 9 / 4 / 6 / 10)
Europa League Teams: Aston Villa, Everton, Fulham, Liverpool.
2010-11 Blackpool(P) 52 WBA(P) 47 Bolton 40 Fulham 37 (Final League Positions Were: 19 / 11 / 14 / 8)
Europa League Teams: Aston Villa, Man City, Liverpool.
2011-12 Newcastle 36 Swansea(P) 45 Norwich(P) 45 Man City 5 (Final League Positions Were: 5 / 11 / 12 / 1)
Europa League Teams: Birmingham, Fulham, Man City, Man Utd, Stoke, Tottenham.
2012-13 Man Utd 3 Everton 27 Swansea 41 WBA 39 (Final League Positions Were: 1 / 6 / 9 / 8)
Europa League Teams: Chelsea, Liverpool, Newcastle, Tottenham.
2013-14 Liverpool 16 Everton 25 Crystal Palace(P) 49 Southampton 35 (Final League Positions Were: 2 / 5 / 11 / 8)
Europa League Teams: Swansea, Tottenham, Wigan
2014-15 Swansea 39 Southampton 35 Crystal Palace 44 Stoke 36 (Final League Positions Were: 8 / 7 / 10 / 9)
Europa League Teams: Everton, Hull, Liverpool, Tottenham

Only 1 scratch team made the top 4 (Man Utd in 2008/09) in the 7 season sample @ 3.5% - rules out Chelsea.
Only 6 of the 28 possible place positions were filled by one of the big 6 – Average of 21.4% of which there were 3 winners of the title.
Only 2 teams that played in the Europa League made the top 4 in the same season @ 7.1%. This demonstrating what the additional demands that that competition have on a teams League performance. This seasons entrants are: Liverpool, Southampton, Tottenham and West Ham.
An average of 1 promoted team makes the top 4 every season, including 3 who have won, so it is quite probable bookmakers were underestimating the strength and resolve of the promoted sides, but only 1 of the promoted teams has been placed in the last 3 year. Have the bookmakers got it right with Bournemouth, Norwich and Watford or have they once again underestimated their chances?

THE MOST LIKELY FINISHING POSITION TO HIT THE TOP 4 OF THE HANDICAP IS TO FINISH 5TH TO 12TH IN THE LEAGUE.
20 OF THE 28 PLACES IN THE 7 SEASON SAMPLE AT 71.4% DID SO AND ALSO NOT PLAY IN THE EUROPA LEAGUE.
WHO ARE THOSE 2ND TIER TEAMS?
STATS SUGGEST WE CAN SWERVE CHELSEA, MAN CITY, ARSENAL, MAN UTD, LIVERPOOL, SOUTHAMPTON, TOTTENHAM AND  WEST HAM. THE OTHER SIDES LIKELY TO BE IN THE RELEGATION DOG FIGHT ARE SUNDERLAND, WEST BROM, ASTON VILLA, LEICESTER  BOURNEMOUTH, NORWICH AND WATFORD. THIS LEAVES ONLY EVERTON, STOKE, SWANSEA, CRYSTAL PALACE AND NEWCASTLE WHO FIT THE 5th TO 12th PROFILE AND DO NOT HAVE A EUROPEAN DISTRACTION.
ON THE EXCHANGE HANDICAP THE ABOVE ANALYSIS SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN FACTORED IN AS THE HANDICAPS GIVEN ARE (BEST BOOKMAKER HANDICAP IN BRACKETS):
EVERTON 28 (29 with 3)
STOKE 32 (37 with 2)
SWANSEA 34 (37 in 1 place)
CRYSTAL PALACE 35 (39 in 1 place)
NEWCASTLE 40 (40 in 2 places) TRADING AS 13.0 FAVOURITES

CHAMPIONSHIP RESULTS USING THE LAST 6 SEASONS

2009-10 Newcastle(R) Scr Blackpool 29 WBA(R) 1 Nottm Forest 12 (Final League Positions Were: 1 / 6 / 2 / 3)
2010-11 Norwich(P) 11 Swansea 14 QPR 5 Cardiff 11 (Final League Positions Were: 2 / 3 / 1 / 4 – top 4 in league)
2011-12 Southampton(P) 14 Reading 10 Watford 28 Blackpool(R) 14 (Final League Positions Were: 2 / 1 / 11 / 5)
2012-13 Crystal Palace 27 Hull 15 Watford 17 Cardiff 11 (Final League Positions Were: 5 / 2 / 3 / 1)
2013-14 Burnley 24 Leicester 6 Derby 15 Blackburn 13 (Final League Positions Were: 2 / 1 / 3 / 8)
2014-15 Bournemouth 16 Brentford(P) 22 Middlesbrough 12 Watford 7 (Final League Positions Were: 1 / 5 / 4 / 2)

The top 2 – figured in all 6 seasons and teams finishing in the top 6 filled a staggering 22 of the possible 24 place positions.
Only 1 scratch team made the top 4, Newcastle who collected over 100 points in 2009-10, so cross off Derby C for this season.
3 teams relegated from the previous season and 3 teams promoted to the division from the previous season made the top 4, two of those promoted winning the handicap.

EXCLUDING WATFORD IN 2011-2012 AND BLACKBURN IN 2013-14  ALL POSITIONS HAVE BEEN FILLED BY TEAMS WHO FINISHED IN THE TOP 6 – A MASSIVE 91.7%.
SO WHO WILL BE TOP 6  THIS SEASON?
CONSIDER: MIDDLESBORO, HULL, WOLVES, BURNLEY, BRENTFORD and QPR.

DIVISION 1 RESULTS USING THE LAST 6 SEASONS

2009-10  Swindon 24 Norwich(R) 6 Millwall 13 Charlton(R) 8 (Final League Positions Were: 5 / 1 / 3 / 4)
2010-11  Brighton 12 Exeter(P) 32 Bournemouth(P) 28 Rochdale 31 (Final League Positions Were: 1 / 8 / 6 / 9)
2011-12  Charlton 4 Stevenage(P) 26 Sheff Utd(R) 5 Sheff Wed 2 (Final League Positions Were: 1 / 6 / 3 / 2)
2012-13  Yeovil 28 Walsall 31 L Orient 27 Doncaster(R) 10 (Final League Positions Were: 4 / 9 / 7 / 1)
2013-14    Leyton Orient 19 Wolves Scr Brentford 6 Rotherham(P) 12 (Final League Positions Were: 3 / 1 / 2 / 4)
2014-15    Bristol C 4 MK Dons 10 Swindon 17 Preston 4 (Final League Positions Were: 1 / 2 / 4 / 3)

The divisional champions figured in all 6 seasons and teams finishing in the top 9 filled all 24 place positions.
The teams filling the top 4 positions in the league in the last 2 seasons have also been the top 4 in the handicap.
Only 1 scratch team has made the top 4 in 6 seasons, so cross off Sheff Utd this season.
4 teams promoted to the division from the previous season and 5 teams relegated from the previous season have figured.

NO TEAM FINISHING OUTSIDE OF THE TOP 9 FIGURED AT ALL IN THE 6 SEASON SAMPLE.
SO WHO WILL BE TOP 9 THIS SEASON?
CONSIDER: WIGAN, MILLWALL, BARNSLEY, BRADFORD, DONCASTER and COVENTRY

DIVISION 2 RESULTS USING THE LAST 6 SEASONS

2009-10   Aldershot 25 Notts Co Scr Bournemouth 10 Rochdale 11 (Final League Positions Were: 6 / 1 / 2 / 3)
2010-11   Accrington 26 Bury 9 Chesterfield 5 Shrewsbury 9 (Final League Positions Were: 5 / 2 / 1 / 4)
2011-12   Cheltenham 31 Swindon(R) 6 Torquay 17 Southend 17 (Final League Positions Were: 6 / 1 / 5 / 4)
2012-13   Burton 27 Port Vale 18 Gillingham 12 Cheltenham 16 (Final League Positions Were: 4 / 3 / 1 / 5)
2013-14    Rochdale 14 Scunthorpe(R) 10 York 19 Dagenham 28 (Final League Positions Were: 2 / 3 / 7 / 9)
2014-15    Wycombe 23 Burton 9 Southend 10 Shrewsbury 4(R) (Final League Positions Were: 4/ 1 / 5 / 2)

Teams finishing in the top 6 in the league filled 22 of the 24 place positions, a massive 91.7%, only York and Dagenham in 2013-14 buck that trend.
Only Notts Co, under Sven, made it to the top 4 as a scratch team, so Portsmouth are a massive swerve.
No promoted team has figured and only 3 relegated teams were placed.

NO TEAM FINISHING OUTSIDE OF THE TOP 9 FIGURED AT ALL IN THE 6 SEASON SAMPLE.
SO WHO WILL BE TOP 9 THIS SEASON?
CONSIDER: LUTON, OXFORD, NORTHAMPTON, NOTTS CO, BRISTOL RVRS and CAMBRIDGE.
YORK – WHO DISAPPOINTED LAST SEASON AND MAY HAVE BEEN SUFFERING A PLAY OFF HANGOVER– MAYBE OF SOME INTEREST AT HILLS OFF 23.

CONFERENCE RESULTS USING THE LAST 6 SEASONS

2009-10   Stevenage 7 Rushden 17 York 15 Salisbury 31 (Final League Positions Were: 1 / 4 / 5 / 12)
2010-11   Crawley 5 AFC Wimbledon 17 Wrexham 17 Fleetwood(P) 17 (Final League Positions Were: 1 / 2 / 4 / 5)
2011-12   Southport 33 Wrexham 11 Fleetwood 2 Gateshead 25 (Final League Positions Were: 7 / 2 / 1 / 8)
2012-13   Newport 22 Dartford(P) 39 Kidderminster 14 Hyde(P) 42 (Final League Positions Were: 3 / 8 / 2 / 18)
2013-14    Braintree 28 Luton 1 Salisbury(P) 33 Nuneaton 34 (Final League Positions Were: 6 / 1 / 12 / 13)
ONLY 2 BOOKMAKERS PRICED UP IN 2014-15
2014-15    Macclesfield 24 Barnet 8 Dover 26 Grimsby 6 (Final League Positions Were: 6 / 1 / 8 / 3)

Teams finishing in the top 8 in the league filled 20 of the possible 24 place positions.
No scratch team in any of the top 4's (although Luton were Scratch in places (2013-14) Forest Green's handicap average was lower) .
5 league winners have figured in the top 4.
4 promoted team have figured but no relegated team has been placed.

83.3% OF POSITIONS HAVE BEEN FILLED BY TEAMS FINISHING IN THE TOP 8 AND NO POSITIONS FILLED BY RELEGATED TEAMS. SO WHO WILL BE TOP 8 THIS SEASON?
SWERVE TRANMERE AND CHELTENHAM.
CONSIDER: GRIMSBY, EASTLEIGH, FOREST GREEN, WREXHAM, WOKING and GATESHEAD.

In conclusion I fancy:
PREMIERSHIP: 15/1 C Palace + 39 – Hills and 15/1 Newcastle + 40 Betfred
CHAMPIONSHIP: 18/1 Brentford +8 – Ladbrokes and 18/1 Middlesboro +2 Ladbrokes
LEAGUE ONE: 18/1 Barnsley + 11 – Ladbrokes and 18/1 Coventry + 14 – Ladbrokes.
LEAGUE TWO: 18/1 Luton +5 – Ladbrokes and 18/1 Cambridge + 13 – Ladbrokes.
CONFERENCE: NO PRICES AT PRESENT -Boreham Wood +35 to 40 would interest me.
SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP: 8/1 Hearts + 33 Ladbrokes and 9/1 Dundee Utd + 38 Corals

Good Luck With Your Picks
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