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Calipto does look a worthy favourite with his weight, trainer and course form.
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What's the maximum field size for this race please?
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Pretty sure it's 24.
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Thanks shockster... I've had a nibble at Arzal at 46 on here... needs about ten to come out though... also like Seedling but not at the present price... cheers...
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I'm kicking myself as I had had Calipto in mind for this for a while, and just missed the boat. Didn't think he'd get this smashed this quickly. The other one I really like is Nicholls' other runner, Emerging Talent, who looked to be going just as well as L'Ami Serge lto before falling. It's interesting that he was entered tomorrow (been taken out now), and has plenty of entries in the next few days as well, just after the weights have come out. He'll need plenty to come out to get in, but a win in a novice this weekend would serve the purpose of getting him a penalty, which would practically guarantee him a run.
If he wins well, which the collateral form with L'ami Serge suggests he could, he could go there a very very well handicapped horse. I wouldn't be worried that Nicholls also has Calipto, as he has run a few in this race plenty of times. 14s seems way too big to me. |
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I've had a wee bet on Ebony Express, who looked pretty good winning his first two hurdles races this year. In trainers stable tour he likened this one to Overstrand, who he trained to be a close 2nd in this race. He's aiming Ebony Express at the race, so I'm thinking if he doesn't get in he'll be balloted out and stakes returned.
Some might be put off by his last run, finished 6th, but I watched that race again and he was not put into it at all, as far as I'm concerned it was spin to keep him ticking over for this. Dr Newland is a fantastic target trainer. Try as I might I couldn't find any superstars lurking (imo) so a wee punt on this one is worthwhile at 25/1 as I believe there is more to come, interestingly Lards are as low as 14/1. |
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"Calipto is very much on course for the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury next month. He has had a breathing operation after choking at Cheltenham first time up in October - I said as much immediately after the race - and I think that he can be competitive off his mark. Newbury has been the long-term plan for him since Cheltenham". Paul Nicholls
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What penalty does Top Notch get if he wins today?
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Top Notch gets a 5lb penalty, jumps up from 47th to 34th in list so will get a place. really impressed with it's quick jumping today and looks right type for race
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1 Garde La Victoire21 6 11-12 Philip Hobbs
2 Get Me Out Of Here98 11 11-9 Jonjo O´Neill 3 Sign Of A Victory43 6 11-7 Nicky Henderson 4 Hawk High37 5 11-4 Tim Easterby 5 Sea Lord70 8 11-4 John Ferguson 6 Cinders And Ashes330 8 11-3 Donald McCain 7 Seedling57 6 11-2 Warren Greatrex 8 Pine Creek49 7 11-2 John Ferguson 9 Vasco Du Ronceray77 6 11-1 Nicky Henderson 10 Calipto112 5 11-1 Paul Nicholls 11 Activial49 5 11-1 Harry Fry 12 Aso21 5x 5 11-1 Venetia Williams 13 Lucky Bridle20 6 11-0 W P Mullins 14 Dawalan63 5 11-0 Nicky Henderson 15 Goodwood Mirage49 5 11-0 Jonjo O´Neill 16 Royal Irish Hussar231F 5 11-0 Nicky Henderson 17 Sleepy Haven28 5 11-0 Jennie Candlish 18 Cheltenian29 9 10-13 Philip Hobbs 19 Ballyglasheen49 5 10-13 Evan Williams 20 Jolly´s Cracked It35 6 10-12 Harry Fry 21 Starluck42 10 10-12 David Arbuthnot 22 Amore Alato35 6 10-12 Nick Williams 23 Wicklow Brave72 6 10-12 W P Mullins 24 Mijhaar36 7 10-12 John Ferguson 25 Arzal43 5 10-11 Harry Whittington 26 Blair Perrone28 6 10-10 A J Martin 27 Bordoni70 6 10-10 John Ferguson 28 Daneking38 6 10-10 W P Mullins 29 On Tour77 7 10-10 Evan Williams 30 Minella Present85 6 10-10 Neil Mulholland 31 Baradari21 5x 5 10-10 Venetia Williams 32 Balgarry35 8 10-9 David Pipe 33 Laser Hawk52 8 10-7 Evan Williams 34 Swing Bowler28 8 10-7 David Pipe 35 Chieftain´s Choice53 6 10-6 John Quinn 36 Forced Family Fun32F 5 10-6 John Quinn 37 Ebony Express30 6 10-6 Dr Richard Newland 38 Violet Dancer17F 5 10-4 Gary Moore 39 Gassin Golf49 6 10-4 Richard Lee 40 Karezak42 4 10-4 Alan King 41 Ballybolley42 6 10-3 Nigel Twiston-Davies 42 Fascino Rustico32 7 10-2 Dan Skelton 43 Snake Eyes20 7 10-0 Nicky Henderson 44 War Singer28 8 10-0 Johnny Farrelly 45 Hello George28 6 10-0 Philip Hobbs 46 Lightentertainment56 7 9-12 Chris Gordon Top Notch, Emerging Talent & Arctic Fire 3 notable absentees. |
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Thanks for posting the latest entries shockster... I've gone in again on Arzal... average odds just shy of 50 now... pleased to see it's up to 25 on the list...
May I ask where you found the list of entries listed in weight order? Was looking earlier today but with no luck... |
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Try Racing post my friend. Normally there. Also has a filter for horses name, horses weight & OR.
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Try Racing post my friend. Normally there. Also has a filter for horses name, horses weight & OR.
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Thanks KSI... searched Arzal entries on the RP site and it shows the race on Feb 7 with '65 runners' which was the original amount of entries... scrolling down I can see the list is updated with my pick sitting pretty at 25... cheers...
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fascino rustico looks fairly weighted imo could run a big race....
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Needs 18 to come out though Alleged. Has to be doubtful to get a run.
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Does anyone know what the penalty structure is for the race? Ie. How many lbs for a win?
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Aso and Baradari got 5lb Penalties according to RP racecard, don't know if penalties linked to class of race or just 5lb a winner?
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fascino gets 5lb rise that should get him in imo
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Violet Dnacer been kept under the radar for this, hope it gets in
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Fascino Rustico has no penalty (Racing Post) unfortunately, but if he gets in would have a favourite's chance.
Swing Bowler is another that needs defectors but she is well handicapped, seems to go on any ground and has run well in this event before. At 33/1 she looks e/w value. She needs about ten to drop out. Royal Irish Hussar is unlikely to run but is on a very good mark at present. |
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Fascino Rustico has no penalty (Racing Post) unfortunately, but if he gets in would have a favourite's chance.
just think he,s much better than his current mark, poised to win and fell a couple of times, beat decent sorts at kemp last year, had the ulcer problem, theres a lot to like this year.... ![]() |
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I think you'll find F.Rustico DOES have a penalty to carry. Can I suggest you look at the conditions of the race.
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Penalties after January 11th, a winner of a hurdle race 5lb; of 2 hurdle races 8lb
thanks fact find ![]() |
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I suggest that you take it up with the Racing Post as they see fit to leave the said beast on 10:2.
I also suggest with some justification that the best part of you ,Fact Find, ran down your Mother's leg. |
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is there really any need for those kind of comments dunlaying
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Time of the year isn't it alleged, you get these types of people on here as we approach Cheltenham sadly.
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32 left in,sign of a victory the new top weight.
done baradari ew myself so glad he stood his ground,feared they might have kept him to the longer trip and pulled him out. |
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Looks like a dry week, wonder if it'll be testing or not. Only soft going right now.
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Short List:
Activial (assuming improvement and weight pull from Ascot to get past the one below) Pine Creek (seems overpriced @ 25 on here compared to the above, runner?) Balgarry (lightly raced for it's age and respected Trainer) Violet Dancer (could be a sneaky one at 38 on here with the Trainer's race record and an AWT prep run) |
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Very poor renewal methinks, will have to invest a shilling on something but will wait for declared runners.
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Cant see any rain all week, going to be minus 2 overnight before the race, not sure what affect covers will have on the ground too.
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Fascino rustic I have just noticed has an entry in the deloitte the day after, back up plan maybe should he not get a run here.......?
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Chieftain's Choice looks to have a bit of class about him. Improver, front runner, so lot to ask, but I like him. Good fast hurdler, like the 20-1, just hope he runs.
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Sign of a Victory being overlooked here imo. Without the Xmas Hurdle run he'd be 4/1 max imo, and that's easy enough to forgive. Would want reasonable ground though.
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Vasco du Ronceray looks overpriced at 25-1. Not a great race he won last time but did it tidily enough and not off a bad mark considering his novice form.
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3" of snow in Newbury overnight
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I have gone for Seedling. Form is good as anything that finishes placed behind it wins next time.
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As with last weeks Sandown handicap, this is another big race that seems a shadow of it's former self. Was always my favourite handicap hurdle of the year - Large Action just beating Oh So Risky, Geos chinning Rooster Booster on the line, Decoupage hosing up etc, but this years entries are hardly worthy of a supporting race on a big Saturday card.
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