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Juddmonte International York
Juddmonte International York
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every forum has a resident clown i suppose so we cant be too harsh
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What so many on here fail to understand is that this is a forum. Different people with different views put forward their ideas for discussion. They may be wacky ideas and they may be well founded but as long as they are food for thought it shouldn't be a problem. We don't all think the same. For every backer there is a layer. That is good. And the fact that horse racing fans like to discuss points on opposing sides shouldn't mean they are open to abuse and insult. Then some of the comments like those posted by Sintonian are just not necessary. In fact he should be ashamed of himself. But he does it day in and day out. It doesn't bother me any more because I have gotten used to it. But a newcomer reading these threads would definitely swerve adding their views.
I have very few views on most things and I post on about one thread in a thousand and only when I think there is something worth discussing. I am open with my views and the are varied. I accept they are my views and not everyone else's and I have no problem with that. I have also posted my bets, winners and losers before they run. Yet still some, like Sintonian, feel the need to be abusive. I hope the day comes when sensible grown up people can have sensible grown up debate. That may be some way off but that is what I hope. Sin you really should not keep embarrassing yourself. St Nic went off at a shorter price than Camelot in possibly a much better 2000 Gns. He has won six Group 1 races and was a thoroughly good and genuine horse. In the 2012 Juddmonte he finished alongside Farhh with JOB making the minimum use of his whip so it is not unreasonable to think St Nic is as good as Farhh. I will leave the rest to you. I've met guys like you all of my life so why don't you just concentrate your time on second guessing John Gosden. And the warped nonsense last October was that I thought Australia would run in the 2000 Guineas, he did. Or that I thought War Command would struggle to win a Group 1 again. So far he has. |
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Aidan O'Brien talking about St Nic after the Guineas disappointment.
"His times at home were as good as all of the good milers we have had here, but the difference was that he was doing it easier. That was what was exciting us about him. All of his work was half-speed work. He was never asked anything." So they had a middle distance horse on their hands that was clocking times as good as any of their best milers while doing half-speed work. Times, like any other method of reading form, are open to interpretation, but that was how they'd interpreted it, so I think it's fair to say they must've thought they potentially had their best horse on their hands at that stage. The only difference is O'Brien was a bit more forthright about it when talking about Camelot and Australia. |
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Figgis you and I have been through this Australia thing from Day 1. I have always made it abundantly clear that I am following Australia BECAUSE of what AOB has said. I know his form doesn't yet add up but I committed myself to this project last year and made my bets accordingly. Hopefully the race still has some laps to run but until then I will remain true to my cause.
You will also know, from reading my Coolmore thread, that I am no lover of that set up or AOB as a trainer and sometimes his comments make me wince but they are is comments and I have to respect from a man in his position. And my comments about Camelot were largely based on AOB's views not my own. I know Camelot's form does not add up I have said it enough times and you know how much I hate the tidal wave of hype we get nowadays. |
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Good afternoon brigust
 ,agree about the AOB comments,they sometimes make no sense,and neither do their tactics. |
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Hi MJ. Hope you are well. I've been working on a project I will let you know more about shortly. Although I expect I will be leaving the country again at any time I wont be going to my other place until early November so I will look for those weights then and message them to you. I agree the AOB thing has been a bit of a struggle but there you go.
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I don't think it's all hype. Sure, some of O'Brien's comments sound a bit OTT, but as Sandown said in the past, a lot of it is just over enthusiasm and similar happens in other sports. I don't believe O'Brien was making up any of those comments about St Nic or the fact that they got excited about Australia because of his times. I believe they genuinely thought and hoped they might have a superstar. With Camelot and Australia they were proved right in thinking they were future Derby winners so they weren't too far off the mark, both horses were just a few pounds worse than they'd hoped, just like any of us can overrate a lightly raced horse.
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aww poor you Brig. Clearly your ego has taken a bump to try and get some sympathy now. You're a saint, right? You've not met anyone like me, and don't know me from Adam so don't think otherwise.
What is quite clear on here t is that you are not prepared to listen to anybody, even when you ask questions looking for answers and they're given you dismiss them straight away. I couldn't give a sh1t if you want to dress it up as abuse. You are clueless, arrogant, smug and foolish. A fcuking amateur. I have said it, and so have several other people from months back. Petty, nonsense, whatever. I've no time for foolish arrogant ar53holes like youself. This time I will block you like I said before. I only wish there was a way of blocking you from reading my posts. Well done with fcuking the thread and every other you've been on. I'll leave it to you to tell everyone what they don't already know about Australia.  |
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Charming.
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Brig
Correct me if I'm wrong but you feel that if Australia runs he is a certainty - and will 'annihilate the field'. You have already also said that price and value are irrelevant to your betting - so presumably if he is given the green light, and the weather forecast holds no fears about late going changes, you will put every single penny you have on him at the best price after declaration - irrespective of what that price is (4/6, 1/2, 2/9 etc)? If not why not? *For the record I feel Australia is far and away the most likely winner given suitable going, but depending on the final declarations his price will determine whether I actually back him or not. |
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No you are wrong uncle. Using the term certainty etc. is a racing term. It doesn't necessarily mean what it does in other walks of life. I try to refrain from using that word and say things like 'blinding' etc. But when you are thinking of having a decent bet then if you have done your homework and weighed everything up 'certainty' is a term you may use. AFTER a horse has won I often hear people saying 'he was a certainty'. Haven't you? It's term used to show how strongly you feel about his chances.
Then strangely you make comments about the going, the price etc. Of course price is important but to me it is only important as to how much I will risk for reward. I had a bet on Frankel to go through his 4 year old career unbeaten at 7/4 with PP. This risk to reward was very fair. I prefer to have bigger bets on longer priced selections if I think they are as near 'certainties' as you can get because the risk/reward is very favourable. Your final sentence is a bit baffling. 'whether I actually back him or not'. If you think he is the most likely winner then you should back him anyway. A winner is a winner. That is if you trust your own judgement of course. The price should determine the likely risk/reward. If, for example he is 1/5 and those odds truly reflect his chances in your opinion then just put a monkey on and have a good meal out of it. If he is 1/5 and you don't think it truly reflects his chances then either lay him or leave him. If you decide not to lay him then you are going against what you think. Imo. As you clearly observed there are still many variables to consider so at his current price I prefer to wait until the day. He is not a horse I can lay or back and then trade, like Kingman, because I think if everything is right he will always look like the winner and his price will only shorten and shorten during the race. There was a time when I would put every single penny I had on a horse. It certainly focuses your mind and makes winning and losing more worth while. However it is not something I do now but I do like a really good bet sometimes. |
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brigust,did Nashwan get any of your hard earned? I got that one all wrong
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gets more amusing by the day this thread...still no real chat about the juddmonte
what i would say to posters who don't appreciate what brigust may think, of which i have my moments, is just move on the abuse is not necessary... sometimes he puts up a decent post as above imo sometimes he doesn't but hey ho i don't have to read it...for me the ante post forum is just a chance form me to get away from the day to day stuff of which gets tedious at times so i come on here for a break and a chat, not to read some of the muck i have had to dredge through on this thread and others this year...anyway back to the amateur riders race at thirsk that no punter will be interested in  be lucky |
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. A winner is a winner.
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. A winner is a winner.
Forgot to add the smiley - thought that brigust1 would use the term sooner or later |
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I missed the big prices MJ mainly because his work was too good to be true. Some of the lads went mad and one sold his car for about half what it was worth. Looking back it was a great opportunity but I always thought I had to be closely involved because some of the stories were a bit OTT. Not this tome though. I know I may get slaughtered for this but it wasn't the greatest of races. You know the old 'wish I knew then what I know now' saying. Well that is certainly true. I did bet 12s about BG for the 2000 Gns and 33s about Highclere for her Guineas. I doubled her up with Red Rum at 10s. I remember going in to get my money and most in there knew about it and gave me a round of applause. Long time ago though but then if you really fancied anything you had to go all in. No credit cards then etc.
My problem S is that I bet in so few races so missing something I thought would win is more painful. If I bet every day etc then it probably wouldn't be so important. Fewer bets larger stake works for me. |
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hope your well sandown...
i bet you got the tissues out for the kingman 10.23 sectional sandown  ...out of interest have you seen many faster sandown?? |
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"A" level maths eh brigust1. Guess you must have forgotten it all
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No I haven't Harry - the last 2f were sub 21 secs - wow!
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people were saying frankel had run a 10.48 furlong i believe but that was obviously in a race run at a decent pace it just shows how good frankel was...gosden was right after the race when he said kingman could of won a july cup imo, shame he didn't have a go at the race, just to show how fast he is
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Sometimes it's helpful S with structural calculations, loadings, percolation testing and buying materials but other than, like most things your learn at school, you don't use it. The books you read have never been on my read list.
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Not that I'm into betting 1/5 chances in a horse race, but I'd have thought if the horse "is 1/5 and those odds truly reflect his chances in your opinion", then it would be no bet? Apart from that I don't think there are many people out there who could truly distinguish between a horse having a 1/5 chance and 1/8 chance before a race.
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brigust1
Respect. But obviously your education was neglected in respect of gambling |
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So peaceful and serene on here now, can you feel the love again Brig? Hope those nasty tempered,rude people stay away.[:grin
I found `A` level Physics more useful than `A` level maths though the latter did teach me about probability and how to put up a 140% book. These days are gone sadly with the advent of the betting exchanges.I am no Luddite and have now become an armchair on-line trader.You know it makes sense. Just for Harry and to repeat myself I will not back Australia,if at all, until the 48 hour decs are available but have taken a chance ante-post on The Grey Gatsby, hoping he turns up. |
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interesting feltfair...
given arod and the grey gatsby like for better ground i wonder whether a wager could be struck on a match bet between the two?? i'll take arod but would want 7-4 for obvious reasons...on the day of course when we know the ground and will ask for a market on here but would be happy to accommodate...of course you would have the edge feltfair having the course specialist and ryan moore aboard and i have just a mere maiden winner with frank spencer up...stacked in your favour feltfair as always!! but could be a tad of fun |
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Evening lads.
Seems to have been a bit of ££ on here for Trading Leather? Sure I heard it on one of the racing channels his next run would be in the US or Can? Hope he is another that turns up at York, the more gd horses the better for the race, |
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Had a shilling on Arod in the Derby Harry but it is a giant leap of faith to think he can turn round the Derby form with Australia.
Just behind The Grey Gatsby in the Dante I know but the aforementioned really stepped up in the French Derby and if he runs I can`t believe he`ll be anywhere near the 15.5 I backed him at and will trade him hopefully. Peter Chapple-Hyam along with Henry Cecil my favourite trainers of all time and I wouldn`t put it past him to have Arod spot on for the race. |
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Lightly raced 3yo (Arod) does need to improve but is open to a fair bit of that & I do think 10f is his trip.
With u on the Henry Cecil (Sir) thing Felt, our Greatest trainer imo  Just started reading his book, excellent so far in, (Lesters return)  . |
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PS: What a "looker" Henrys mum was
fab looking woman & a very well bred filly as well |
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Just back from a nice evening meal Sausage, mash and onion gravy with a cold shandy. Must support the local hostelries.
I am a Sir Henry fan but one thing he did say was that he never bought a horse. Every horse he trained was from the top owner breeders so he obviously had a better chance that Richard Hannon for example. He, RH, who Sir Henry had high praise for has plied his trade buying horses the top owner breeders didn't want etc. Very interesting point I think. He and his brother were top blokes though. Real class. You may think my gambling ability is restricted S but I'm very happy with it. Thank you. Mind you if you cannot make good money now you would never have survived the betting tax years. Why would it be a no bet Fig? Odds on in a Group 1 at York is far better, in my opinion, than odds on in a Grade 5 maiden at Brighton. In the former the favourite is clearly the best horse and the number of horses around with the ability to beat him are very, very limited indeed. Unlike the Brighton race where the number of potentially higher rated horses around is huge. |
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Would've thought it obvious, the horse's price is 1/5 and you think he's a 1/5 chance.
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I don't look at things like that. And I have never made a 'book' Felt. I think, probably stupidly, that's it's the horses chance of winning I concentrate on. The price is something I can do little about. When I decide on the horse to back I then decide what level of bet I think it is. Anything from a punt to a blinding bet. Then I look for the best price. That will not change my bet. The better the price the better I like it. You can either bet on here or try best odds guaranteed with the bookies. Sometimes its a mix depending on what can be got on and what price it is on here. Usually the punts are long shots I am waiting for running in a race they really shouldn't win but sometimes they do. It works for me.
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Of course I don't only bet to win I have a list of possible bets written down and when I get a suitable race to bet in I go through the list to see what bet suits that particular race.
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But what is the horse's chance if you don't know what price it should be?
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FELTFAIR
11 Aug 14 20:13 Joined: 01 Jun 10 | Topic/replies: 3,415 | Blogger: FELTFAIR's blog Had a shilling on Arod in the Derby Harry but it is a giant leap of faith to think he can turn round the Derby form with Australia. i don't disagree feltfair australia should take the beating and in all fairness i kind of like the grey gatsby too at the prices...thought arod really didn't like the camber and a more conventional track should see him in a better light but he has a lot to find in all fairness... i do see him as very unfurnished and he will be a good horse in time... tough betting heat but if i knew it was fast ground and the horses that are priced up on oddschecker were all runners i would have a decent poke ew on arod, however that is all subjective at this stage and ante post betting isn't for me much anymore because half the time you are getting a better price on the day |
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I told you isn't the way I look at it Fig. Say, for example, the selection is the only possible winner I can see, a bit like Torinado or J Wonder, and there are no obvious dangers then the strength of my belief will tell me how much to bet. I then look for the best available price. I sometimes save at a greatly reduced price in running relative to the price I have got just in case I get mugged. If it is slightly more complicated I will use one of the other types of bets.
I thought Kingman would win the Sussex but I also thought he would trade much bigger than his odds in running. So I laid him then backed him. I never backed him at the odds he did trade at but my bet was successful. The reverse of backing and laying in running.The bet is covered. The Juddmonte should be easy. I couldn't save on any other other horses because, in my opinion, nothing else can win. So I will have a good bet and try to get the best price I can. I doubt he will trade longer in running because of his running style so it is win or nothing. |
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*Toronado
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nothing else can win
What does this mean? |
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the selection is the only possible winner I can see, a bit like Torinado or J Wonder, and there are no obvious dangers
Hard to believe anyone could've thought J Wonder was the only possible winner and there were noobvious dangers. |
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he couldn't get boxed in, he couldn't be given a crap ride , he couldn't actually be not good enough, he couldn't come cruising and then get oubattled by a more experienced rival, he couldn't be ill and the stable staff not know he,s a dead cert then brig, nice retirement fund |