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Juddmonte International York
Juddmonte International York
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id imagine everyone on this thread is above AVERAGE at maths brig
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The other big prob with backing (or already backed) Oz, is that he isnot yet a certain runner as far as I know. So unless very much in with "The Lads" or AOB, the horse is not a play until raceday, if u don't mind playing at short odds (not for me)
Oz is a smart horse in my book, but still with things to prove yet. AOB has never hidden his high opinion of this 3yo colt & he (Oz) has went some of the way to showing that class in winning The Epsom Derby. Over 10f on fast ground I expect him to better that performance (we shall see). On the price thing, I don't think he should be short/ish odds-on for this race imo. |
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I never brought up maths Alleged.
Just answer the question dodger Figgis. Australia is way shorter than you thought he was so why are you not laying him? Dpo you not have the courage of your convictions? Are you all talk and no do? This must be a golden opportunity after what you have written why are you not seizing it both hands? Cat got your tongue? And as Miller said he is not even a certain runner. Get in ffs!!!!!! You know you will be thanking me later. |
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Just answer the question dodger Figgis. Australia is way shorter than you thought he was so why are you not laying him?
Try reading these words very slowly, brigust, then think about them before you dribble your next post. If Mukhadram, Noble Mission and TGG turn up then I said Australia would be a lay for me around 4/6. If one or more of those horses drop out then I would have to reassess the price I'm willing to lay. Quite obvious really You, on the other hand, said you'd be disappointed if Mukhadram won, staggered if Noble Mission won and TGG was not good enough. Australia would annihilate them and daylight would be second. So it shouldn't matter whether they run or not, only the ground should matter. However, given the prospect of good to firm ground you still can't say what price you'd be prepared to take. |
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Try reading this slowly Fig!!!
You wrote: If Mukhadram, Noble Mission and TGG turn up then I said Australia would be a lay for me around 4/6. Are you kidding me? Are you??? You would lay at 4/6 KNOWING the dangers were running but you wont lay at 1/2 when there is still a chance that NONE of the dangers will run??????? Plus Australia himself might not run. Wakey wakey!!!! Are you serious. And you have the temerity to say I know nothing about maths or betting!!!! It's a fooking gift. |
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You would lay at 4/6 KNOWING the dangers were running but you wont lay at 1/2 when there is still a chance that NONE of the dangers will run???????
I do believe he's finally lost it  |
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Go to bed Fig. You are obviously delusional, drunk or tired. It's sad really. Go to bed and get some rest will you. Tomorrow is another day. Take it easy. You've been working too hard.
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you wont lay at 1/2 when there is still a chance that NONE of the dangers will run???????
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No you are right I should have written ALL of the dangers will run. Far too quick to stick the knife in.
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Great minds! Anyway you know what I mean don't try to hide now. The point is still the same.
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No it isn't the same at all. If I'm left with only one of the horses I think I have running for me then it would be dumb to lay him at 1/2 when I'm bound to get more than 2/1 for the opponent.
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At last. Took your time there boy. That wouldn't be any good in the City ffs. I was just going to point out the prices of the possible runners to you but as you know the prices are no good at all when they lose. Are they?
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I was just going to point out the prices of the possible runners to you
Of course you were. The trouble is they're only possible runners ffs. |
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as you know the prices are no good at all when they lose. Are they?
Ah, the old 'a winner is a winner and a loser is always poor value' maxim  |
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How many clues do you want? Well I've managed to get you to 'average' the older horses, criticise and downgrade the 3 year olds and almost had you thinking about a lay. All in a good nights work.
No old maxims from me. I don't use value as a betting term. It is either the right price, a poor price or a great price. Value, what the flying fooks value? Why do you think bookies do 'specials'? to try to attract those people looking for value. |
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It is either the right price, a poor price or a great price.
Hmm, so which one is Australia? |
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Now we're talking. What price will the winner be? I will let you into that special secret on the day. If you are good. I wont tell you how much I will be having on but a zoo comes readily to mind. Could be a good day. Could be a very good day.
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What price will the winner be?
No. I'll try it again, which one is Australia in your right price, poor price, great price method of evaluating whether a runner should be backed or not? |
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Is he a runner? What's a runner? Do you think I'm a fortune teller? Don't be silly. I will tell you on the day. Be patient. You know it makes sense.
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I'm not asking if you're backing the horse now, I'm asking if the market stands as it is now, all runners in, all prices the same, which bracket does Australia fall into?
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Now, now, now. Stop being so impatient. A runner is only the right price, a poor price or a great price if he is a runner. You know that. Be patient. It will come to him who waits. Now take my advice and go to bed. It's late and I've been talked into another cycle ride again tomorrow morning, normally once a week is enough for me but it's Shergar Cup and all of those handicaps. And it could be wet. Rain, you know. The kind of thing that affects a price. Good night Figgis.
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RP Sat 9th Aug.
O'Brien to hold fire on Australia International call until next week. O'Brien said: We haven't finalised plans just yet but Australia is back in full work following a break after the Irish Derby. He's being trained with the International in mind. However we will wait a little longer before deciding if he'll travel. There's also the Quipco Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown on September 13th to consider. |
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Looks like they are waiting on the Weather ,O'brien already said Australia would not run on soft , though that was over a Derby distance . If the ground was clearly soft would be interested in KH , on G/f TGG looks interesting e/w, he dotted up in the French Derby and the ground may have been a little soft for him last time and also a little further than he wants , fascinating to see if Mukhadram can continue his heroics going left handed , get that Horse in a Rhythm up front and anything is possible , that I imagine is Ballydoyle's only real worry , if they have any about the opposition .
Tough Older Horses do have a fair record against younger Horses over ten furlongs going all the way back to Royal Palace beating odds on Sir ivor in the Eclipse many moons ago . |
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Royal Palace never won that day Mac.
I watched it live and I was absolutely convinced Taj Dewan had won. The angle did it. Derby winners have a pretty good record in the Juddmonte I think three have won it and three beaten. The three beaten though were Quest for Fame and Benny the Dip neither were top Derby winners and Grundy who had just won the King George battle so had excuses. |
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I remember the close finish Brig three heads crossing the line together , three quality Horses . Is Australia in a class of his own ? probably ....but i would like to see him beat at the price they have him at , that may sound a perverse thing to say but I hate the way the Hype machine got ahead of the Horse and his achievements so far and is still leading .
Ok ten furlongs looks ideal and he will probably go off at odds on and win , but hope not , he is not a Horse of the people like See the Stars was , or as The Brigadier through hs courage and excellence became , if the Ballydoyle massive are ashen faced after the race it will not be out of a huge passion and pride they have in their Horse being dented , it will be grim misery due to a future cash cow failing to deliver the milk , I exclude O'Brien himself from these cynical ruminations . On a more cheerful note if i can get evens on the day , will get on the project !! |
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Good, the bickering seems to have stopped for now thank goodness.
 As per the Derby will make a decision about Australia once the 48 hour declarations are made. Have backed The Grey Gatsby ante-post at 15.5 for peanuts. If he runs surely too big a price and should be able to trade, if he doesn`t no real harm done. |
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This is a different year and old results have no effect on what will happen this year but they can give you a guide as to how difficult a race this can be for an average Derby winner. The last 2 Derby winners to win here were Sea The Stars and Authorized. I think most form students, whether using times or other methods, would've been in agreement that Sea The Stars had already shown he was well above an average Derby winner when winning the Guineas beforehand and the Eclipse afterwards. Authorized's demolition job in his Derby was also above average, on form and on the clock. While I'm sure Australia is better than Benny The Dip and Quest For Fame, who most would agree were below average Derby winners, his achievements going into this race don't measure up to the two recent winners. I'd argue that Camelot would've been a similar price or probably shorter had he been aimed here instead of the Leger and while it's convenient to say in hindsight that he was a poor Derby winner, at this stage in 2012 some people on here were saying he could still possibly be mentioned in the same breath as Frankel.
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It's also interesting that O'Brien makes no mention of the ground. If there was supreme confidence in the horse's ability I would've expected him to say that all being well Australia will be going to York if the ground isn't soft. Sounds to me like they are keeping an eye on the likely opposition and I reckon if they think they'll get an easier ride at Leopardstown they'll wait.
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Quite possible. It's all about the breeding £££ for Aus.
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Figgis I may have misunderstood you but you think Camelot would have been odds-on in Frankel's Juddmonte?
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Incidentally IMO unless it's soft ground Australia will definitely run here - a Ballydoyle exercise gallop in the Irish Champion Stakes won't fool anyone.
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A_T, no, I phrased it badly, I meant hypothetically if Camelot was coming into this race with his profile up until he was beaten in the Leger. Meaning I don't think Australia has achieved anything more than Camelot at the same stage of their careers. People now say Camelot was a poor Derby winner but before the Leger he was regarded similar to how some people are speaking of Australia now.
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And Camelot would have won the Juddmonte (without Frankel). Especially if he had targeted it instead of the St Leger. St Nic was an unlucky 2nd and Camelot beat him when they met in the Arc in his next race. So it is quite reasonable to think he would have beaten St Nic, Farhh and Twice Over who, I think, represent a stronger group than might oppose Australia.
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Anyone who takes the 2012 Arc form literally has to be on hallucinogens. They were also better back in the day, apparently
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Camelot was 2/1f and St Nic was 14/1 for the Arc and it was the only time they met. So it is not inconceivable that Camelot would have won the Juddmonte. Add to that he had just run in the St Leger and been beaten so it is likely Camelot would have beaten St Nic in the Arc by further. There is nothing unreasonable in that.
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So what? Camelot was 2/5 for the Leger, Encke was 25/1. It is not inconceivable that any result could happen in somebody's mind. It is inconceivable trying to substantiate the opinion by providing a piece of form which if taken literally means Haya Landa was lengths better than both horses. Ludicrous.
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Don`t start
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If you read the thread Felt I never brought Camelot up. I am simply comparing his probability with Australia's possibility. This is about the Juddmonte.
AIDAN O'BRIEN has revealed that Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe seventh Camelot will likely stay in training next year, becoming the second Qipco 2,000 Guineas winner in as many years to race again at four. The 2011 Guineas winner Frankel went on to further his reputation at four and O'Brien will be hoping the horse he has refers to as "without doubt" the best he has trained can do the same. "He's done an awful ot for a three-year-old and he'll be something to look forward to next year," said O'Brien. "The lads are very sporting and they want their horses to compete. "Hopefully if he has a good winter he'll be unbelievable next year. I've no doubt he's the best I've trained and everyone will see it next year. "I always thought a mile and a quarter was his perfect distance but that he would get a mile and a half. Next year he could go a mile, a mile and a quarter and probably a mile and a half. He's a great traveller, he's determined and he quickens. "Camelot has had a long, hard season and it was very bad ground. It was sporting of the lads to have a go. Joseph always said he wants better ground. "I didn't think so before the race, but the Leger obviously left its mark. Today he just flattened out." On the Arc 11th, O'Brien added: "St Nicholas Abbey will very possibly stay in training. He'll hopefully go to the Breeders' Cup.We've experimented a lot with him." |
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It is reasonable to assume AOB thought Camelot was at least as good as St Nic so he must have had a favourites chance in the Juddmonte.
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O'Brien will be hoping the horse he has refers to as "without doubt" the best he has trained can do the same.
I've no doubt he's the best I've trained and everyone will see it next year. "I always thought a mile and a quarter was his perfect distance Judging by those comments it is reasonable to assume that we shouldn't base the outcome of hypothetical races on O'Brien's comments. |