No, 109 average is pretty good. I did play Sir Henry's brother once and he beat me on the double. Lovely guy he was so apologetic that he beat me. Class.

I think it isn't too difficult to gather whether or not the group of horses is above, below or on standard. There are so few horses at the top of each distance and that generally remains constant throughout so it is easier. I know it is difficult with wfa to assess properly across ages but it isn't impossible. If Kingman retires this season and Toronado stays in training and rules next season do you think he will have improved or the opposition has lessened? There will be pointers that make that decision easier to make. It isn't a certainty but it can be a pretty good guide.

I never suggested you hold any form down but there will be pointers. I remember when Frankie was discussing the King George and he was all praise for Daylami and how he improved at 5. Yet when you look at his form though Royal Anthem and Swain he was the same horse at four. He just fell onto a run of weak Group 1 races. There is a lot of hype about and it's up to the reader whether he goes with it or not.

Good for you. I didn't. For every backer there is a layer. That's racing.

I would be so disappointed if Mukhadram won and staggered if Noble Mission won. The 3 year olds look to have a clear edge and providing they turn up I think they will take the spoils easily. Even if Mukhadram ran them close I would be extremely disappointed. I really thought this bunch of 3 year olds was the start of a progression and as yet I haven't changed my mind. I did wonder about Ruler f the World but he is entered in a G3 around the same time as Yprk so it looks clear that Australia will run but I will hold fire for a while longer and see what the bookies say when they all price up.

Thinking Australia should win is one thing but I don't see how anyone could be disappointed or staggered by Mukhadram or Noble Mission winning when the result basically revolves around the running of one horse, Australia. If that one horse runs below form, or isn't as good as some people think, then those two horses are capable of winning this on their best form. A lot of people casually dismiss Camelot as a poor Derby winner now but not too many were saying it until his Leger defeat. I don't see what other 3yos have a clear edge and can take the spoils easily? Arod and True Story? Surely not. That leaves Kingston Hill, who isn't a definite runner and judging by the way they ducked out of taking on Australia over 12f on good to firm it would be an absurd decision to want to take him on over 10f unless there's significant rain. Aside from that he was well beaten by Mukhadram in the Eclipse.

That's correct about the Eclipse Figgis, but I don't remember too many thinking that he would win it. Until it is proven otherwise I will treat that result with extreme caution. Obviously I mean't Australia and Kingston Hill as the three year olds meaning if it was fast then Australia and if it was soft and Australia swerved the gig then Kingston Hill. Both were respectable, even top class, and well thought of as two year olds. They both ran respectably in the 2000Gns from which Kingman has confirmed the quality of the form. They both ran respectably in the Derby, while the Irish Derby and Eclipse were 'no races'. Neither Mukharam nor Noble Mission could be called classic horses and both have only come to the for this season as almost a complete surprise to most.
Realistically Australia bolts up given his quality and wfa allowance. If the ground is soft I really cannot see Noble Mission being anything other than a lead horse for Kingston Hill. I forecast an annihilation.

Well, I was banging on about what a good thing Australia was before the Derby, so I wouldn't oppose him for the sake of it, but for me he's no superstar. The Guineas excuses were just that, excuses, as for all the talk of the speed he's got he simply wasn't fast enough. I expect him to win here but I doubt there will be any annihilation. As for Kingston Hill, he is what he's looked, a horse without the speed to trouble the best over 1m or 10f but capable of running a place over 12f. The campaigning of him has been poor since the Derby and is about to get worse if they aim him here. The Eclipse was run in too fast a comparative time for there to be any fluke about it, the winner won on merit. I'd go along with the view that some behind weren't given the best rides including KH. He ought to have beaten Somewhat but was it excuse enough for him to turn around a 4 length beating by Mukhadram? Not for me.

Few? I think you were the only one Sin, weren't you. I thought you were mad but I was completely wrong.

The thing is I just don't see Mukhadram or Noble Mission being anywhere near fast enough for York. A solid grinding track where their strengths are work but York is flat and fast and I see Australia absolutely mullering them. He has enough speed to make Kingman think so these two will be left for dead. Even Kingston Hill's Guineas and Derby form will be too fast on this track.

Kingston Hill's Guineas form too fast? An unusual opinion.

I'd forgotten The Grey Gatsby was priced as an intended runner. I don't rate his best as good enough but if he can return to form after his mud slog last time in France I'd have him over Kingston Hill at this trip.

I would still see a course that takes longer to run as one requiring more stamina, but each to their own. Even if it was a more speed favouring course I can't see how Kingston Hill could be seen as more of a speed horse than Mukhadram or Noble Mission.

Personally I'd take the form of a race result over the pre-race betting market on most occasions, but if the market is to be used as a guide then Mukhadram is priced shorter than KH here so there appears to have been a change of viewpoint since the Eclipse.

The reason KH is bigger than Muk is because he is more likely to run in the Great Voltigeur. Well Alleged Varian ran him in the 2000 Gns and Eclipse so he thought he had enough speed.

And even though KH was taking on Kingman and Australia over a mile on good to firm ground, first time out of the season he still started shorter in that race than Mukhadram did in the Eclipse.

*bears

did I? thought I said some thinkers, its no guide to me just other folks opinions.....

You know what I mean Alleged. Allegedly. You pointed it out as a guide. And it is a guide. It may be a guide as to whether or not a horse runs. It may reflect its chances. It's a guide. Not foolproof but a guide.

You think KH is a fastest horse than Mukh based on the most tenuous ''guide'' of the lot .. the market. Let's all back the favourite of every race today and make a fortune. Honestly Brig, i've never heard such twaddle in trying to build a case for a horse. If the Eclipse was run again today then KH would be in double figures. THEY got it wrong.

Don't do it Fig. Don't lay him because of his price unless you think he cannot win because his price has nothing to do with the race. Lay him because of the trip, the ground or because you don't think he can win but laying a horse because you think his price is wrong is not the way to go. Lay a horse because you think he cannot win, that's OK. Lay a horse because you can get a better price in running, like Kingman, that's OK but laying a horse simply because of his price is not OK in my book. I just wouldn't back him. I certainly wouldn't lay him. If, as you hope, the main opposition turns up his price isn't going to be ridiculous in fact it is likely to be quite the opposite. Mukhadram may have been flattered by finishing upsides an over rated Telescope and Noble Mission is more than fully exposed. And The Grey Gatsby just is not good enough. The GG, Muk and Noble have all had much harder seasons and this race is at best an after thought whereas if Australia turns up he will have been trained with this in mind. The trip is ideal for him, the ground is likely to be ideal for him and the track is likely to be ideal for him. Whatever you do don't lay him simply because of his price.

Don't lay him because of his price unless you think he cannot win because his price has nothing to do with the race.

I don't really understand this, as the price is absolutely vital in betting.

Lay a horse because you think he cannot win

It's only rarely I think a horse cannot win, I prefer not to think in those terms, even if a horse has a 25/1 chance it can win.

Mukhadram may have been flattered by finishing upsides an over rated Telescope

I don't rate that run as his best, I have his Eclipse run as better and his POW second last year.

Noble Mission is more than fully exposed

Noble Mission is exposed but he is being judged unduly harshly because of his form when younger. Whichever way you look at it, on his best form this year he's beaten horses far better than the moderate horses Kingston Hill has beaten in his whole career so far.

The GG, Muk and Noble have all had much harder seasons and this race is at best an after thought whereas if Australia turns up he will have been trained with this in mind.

This is the one point I agree with you on, it's a very valid point, however, that has to be factored into his price.

I won't be laying him yet, as I don't know how the race will shape up. If I do lay him it's because I don't rate him as a particularly fast 3yo but he's being priced up as one. 4/5 is the best available price now but I'll be surprised if he's bigger than 4/6 when the final runners are known. There are a couple of older horses that can at least run him close if running to their best. I reckon the more he goes back down in trip the more he's vulnerable to older horses. Personally I would've run him in the KG with the 12lbs advantage, although in hindsight he wouldn't have had it easy against the filly.

I fancied him strongly for the Derby because he'd shown enough in the Guineas to win an average Derby. It wasn't a great Guineas with Kingman running below par but was still a good Derby trial. Most Derbys, and I'm including those from years ago, are full of horses guaranteed to stay but with little speed or horses with a bit of speed but unlikely to stay, this year's was no different. Winning an all age 10f race in receipt of 8lbs is a big step up from that. If Mukhadram or Noble Mission can find their best form  again then Australia is going to have a real battle and I don't believe that makes him a 4/6 chance.