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The way I look at it is that it was Hamdan's idea to supplement Taghrooda. So put yourself in Lady Bamford's position having to fork out £75k to supplement Eagle Top. Wouldn't she say to Gosden "Do you think we can beat your filly?" If he said No, she would hardly throw away £75k. So I would imagine that he would have given her some confidence.
At the prices, Eagle Top must be better value of those two. |
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some decent prize money up for the places.
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Magician is over 8/1 on here comparted to a best price 11/2 with the bookies (which is perhaps a touch worrying
) but with the going likely to be blindingly fast he looks the best play for me. Reckon this has been the main aim for him all season and his previous 3 runs have been good stepping stones. Main concern is that Ascot might not be his track, bit like SNA.![]() The Oaks form was hardly enhanced in Ireland last weekend, and Eagle Top beat trees at Ascot so at the prices neither of the 3 year olds appeal to me (I'm assuming Romsdal won't run). Telescope was impressive enough last time but his price is definitely influenced by the 'Harbinger factor'. Mukhadram will surely struggle to get home unless he gets a very easy lead (possible of course). Trading Leather and Flintshire are reasonable e/w pokes. |
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Big rust
I remember Dahlia as well, an absolutely brilliant filly, not sure how many King George's she hacked up in. I remember the brilliant Time Charter as well. I was really very impressed with Taghrooda and I don' t think personally that the Epsom form was let down at all in the Irish Oaks. The well thrashed 3rd at Epsom was only beaten about 2 feet on Saturday. This just makes Taghrooda miles better than those contesting the Irish Oaks. I think she is the likely winner and looked to me like a filly capable of getting close to 130 in time although she does have a bit to prove purely on form. She won the Oaks though with a ton in hand and as others have said could be anything from 120 to 130. She is though a shortish price and in a race as competitive as this she is unbackable for me. The price of |
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With Eagle Top now into the race it looks a cracker of a KG
.Hopefully they all line-up come Sat on g/fast ground. Like the Filly myself & at 7s ante p she looked a bet for me, but she is way to short now & am sure she will be bigger come Sat morn than the around 9/4 she is now, would expect 3s the field come Sat. Think Telescope is still the main danger atm. Both want g/fast ground & are both still open to more improvement imo, esp the Filly, just like her sire (Sea The Stars) now their was some tool of a horse who just kept getting better with each run as a 3yo. Hope his little girl keeps doing the same (& she will need to, if going to win the Big 1 this Sat). Very much looking forward to a CRACKER ![]() ![]() |
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The form of Flintshire's G1 win is dire. Though in fairness he does need this Good ground.
Bare in mind Eagle Top only needs to finish in the first 3 to recoup the fee, so given his C&D win it's worth a shot. Gosden supplemented Romsdal for the Derby who made the frame. If you don't buy a ticket you can't win the lottery. |
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Soumillon let cda finish the race at epsom without putting too much pressure on him. CDA trainer says cirrus would have won the coronation by 6-10 lengths if he wasn't feeling iffy during the latter stage of the race.
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Is Mukahdram a definite runner. He's a bigger price than Flintshire, even though he has the much better form. I think the Taghrooda hype has kind of had too much of an effect on the market. How can she be 16 points shorter than the eclipse winner. Thats a bit loopy.
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For the record Dahlia, among her 10 Group 1 wins, came back as a 4 year old to win the King George in 1974 beating the 3 year old Highclere who had won the 1000 Guineas, beating the Oaks winner Polygamy, and the Prix Diane. Can you even imagine a horse doing that today even though they have significantly more Group 1 races throughout the world to run in?
You may be right Sin but after all Battle of Marengo was 5.5 lengths back in that race after just being beaten a length by Hillstar. So considering Flintshire won impressively certainly puts him in the frame with Telescope. Graeme CDA's trainer said he was 100% fit and back to his best almost every time he has run and has been beaten 8 times in the last year so you can listen to her if you want. What I do know is that Fabre said it was Flintshire's first run since the Arc and he was only 80% fit and would need the race. Plus it was CDA's third race this season. I think the Eclipse form is a bit loopy. |
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Brig - the horse picked up a problem mid race. She never sent him there like that. As you know, he's out because of it. Flintshire is interesting, but only at current prices on the machine. The top notchers ought to be putting up more of a fight than he did at Saint Cloud, whether he got his ground or not. He's worth a few bob at 14s and higher, inxase the ground completely transforms him, but might not be one to get carried away with.
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Great news from a personal perspective regarding the supplement of Eagle Top. I've backed him for the Arc so I'm hoping for a big run here. I'm annoyed with myself as I think the Arc is the best betting race of the year but I never normally get involved this early. I was very taken with his RA win and got overly excited. The more I look at his win the more annoyed I get.
Any way less about me. Figgis, I agree. The point I was trying to make is he 3yo allowance isn't enough to get me to back a horse in the George. A good Derby winner certainly has the edge. But you still need to be a very good, tough mature 3yo. Other 3yo like Alamshar and Nathaniel have prevailed too. With the fillies though its very different. Yes they have had success in the Arc but hat is much later in the season. If Taghrooda does win here it won't be the biggest shock but I'm prepared to take her on at the prices as she has not proved she is special yet. Telescope could be a class horse but is too short to find out. Magician has grown on me but we know where we are with him. A mid to high 120's horse Mukhadram is likeable and deserved a win latest, but we can pick more holes in that race than a fishermans net. I'm going to take a chance on Flintshire at the prices if he is declared. I know he hasn't produced much as of yet but I can not have a man like Fabre entering him in top race after top race. He could of easily found a lesser race to win by now but he has faith in the animal to produce at the highest level. Sorry for the long post but I'm on holiday. Just got to persuade the son to nip off the beach for 20 mins on Saturday to watch the big race. Good Luck All |
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I thought the trainer said he went lame after the post. Anyway it wasn't a great race and neither is this at the moment on paper. That is why I have chosen Flintshire. If there is something in there unexposed I am in trouble but on the face of it he ticks all of the boxes. There are holes to be found in every runner but as Brandy put so succinctly Fabre has run this horse like he thinks he is a good horse. A Group 3, a Group 1, a rest, an Arc prep, the Arc. This season a travel over for the experience, a Gr1 for his fitness and now the target. Hope he gets a bull. Not sure you can say that about any other horse in the race.
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Add to that AF has always said he wants fast ground, a strong pace and 12f. I cannot think of another race he could have planned to aim him at to get that set of requirements met. Only the King George.
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Wouldn't put anyone off him Brig, chipped away at bigger prices myself. You'd really want any potential rain to miss the track. He's not a horse that should be going off at single figures, in my opinion. He has alot to prove.
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You are right about the rain G and if there is something special in there that could mean trouble but when I went through the race his case stood up better than most and, after all, he is reasonable price as well. We may both need a bit of luck but it does come around sometimes. Good luck.
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Telescope lookes a different horse going right handed take a very good horse to beat him
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Heisen. I don't think he should be 2/1. That price is a bit shabby, and he ought to be more than that on Saturday. Anyway fellas, good luck.
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Flintshire has way more questions to answer than most of the opposition so to say otherwise is nonsense. I can understand backing him at a big price, and I think punters are doing so on the skill of the trainer, which could well be enough, and the ''reputation'' of the horse itself. But he has proven very little so far, particularly for a top notch race like this. There were two fillies not far behind him at Epsom. One gets beat 5 lengths on her next start against her own sex, and the other gets dropped in grade and against her own sex, and still beat. He has no form to suggest he is Group 1 class, but that's why he is 16/1. Too make out he is on a par with some at the head of the market then you should be having the biggest bet of your entire life really, Brig.
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Actually, he is 12/1 now. Maybe tipped up in the papers to force price in that much.
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Sin he was beaten 2 lengths by supposedly the best horse in Europe when having his first run and you say that's nonsense. And the 3rd horse Ambivalent had just beaten Magician. He has run twice against last seasons Derby winner and been beaten under 2 lengths having a prep run and three quarters of a length on ground he hated. That's nonsense too I suppose? On form through Ruler of the World AND Cirrus des Aigles AND Al Kazeem he beats Mukhadram. On form through several of these he beats Trading Leather sand on form through CDA and Ambivalent he beats Magician. That only leaves Telescope and he has met Noble Mission twice this season beaten 2 and a quarter lengths and 9 lengths that puts Flintshire right in the picture. I don't know how good the 3 year olds are but my guess is they are not the best in the country so you may think Flintshire has questions to answer but I suggest you are wrong and it's the others all of whom have questions to answer.
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Trying to compare soft ground form with fast ground form is not sound, norm far from it imo. How far would Telescope beat Noble Mission on fast ground??
Your right about 1 thing brig, Flint wants fast ground to show his best & granted that on Sat he would have a sound ew chance in what is shaping up into a very hot race. As for Q to answer, I suppose they ALL have that to do on Sat to some extent, that's have they got what it takes to win the KG. |
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There is no law that prevents three or more selections in a race , my third selection is Mukhadram , he has twice run more than well over Sandowns stiff ten furlongs , the more i watch of his eclipse win the more i like it , was he stopping at the line ?.... don't think he was , will he stay out of trouble on Saturday ? , yep , straight to the head of affairs as usual , will he hang on into the final furlong ummm don't know but, will be on that one anyway.
I hope |
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then why are you, by your own admission, having a modest bet by your standards?
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This is a race for modest bets imo, Sintonian
By the way, interesting stuff elsewhere about Hanagan "choosing" Tagroodha. "Told" would be more accurate. |
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Not if you believe a horse that is priced in double figures has a chance to win that stands up as good as any of the others, Blackbarn.
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Bigger the odds, bigger the certainty, right
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9/4 Telescope with some firms now. I suspect he will be 5/2 on Saturday, 3/1 Taghrooda as some of the others shorten.
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A few days ago I was with the Oaks winner but deeper looking suggests the stats are really against her and the price has now gone.
Telescope may well win but if he does, I will lose. For me it is the O'B horse if there is money for it, or Flintshire E/W on the day. Premier Enclosure sold out already, so should be a good crowd ? |
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Sintonian - I happen to think the full pricing on the race is about right. I'd have Mukhadram a bit shorter and the filly a bit longer, but that's about it.
Re the stats, as you well know, 6 out of every four people don't understand them. Re Tag, the incidence of 3 year old fillies in the race is so small, that there is NO statistically valid sample to rely on. And actual performance, of that small sample, will have been coloured by those that would not/did not stay. Tag does not fall into that group. Each to his own, mate! Good luck |
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my rudimentary pedigree analysis suggests Taghrooda will love the ground as well as the trip.
Think I'll watch though, normally not this difficult to find a bet... |
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Agree Rease.....Both priced in already though
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Looks like we have a runner so that is the first hurdle crossed. On the down side Ocovango let the form down badly yesterday so either the form is rubbish, and that includes Ruler of the World and Flintshire among others, or Ocovango hasn't gone on from last year. We may well find out on Saturday. The 14s with Hills has had to have another little bash.
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At least Mukhadram has been given stall 1 to get a clear run/be prominent. That must help him in his first try at 12f.
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We need a fast pace. I hope there are no excuses like the Eclipse. At least the jockeys should still have that in mind and I hope Guyon keeps tabs on Telescope and doesn't allow him an early first run.
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1(9) 148-25 Flintshire 27 4 9-7 A Fabre Maxime Guyon
2(3) 9-6825 Leitir Mor 37 t 4 9-7 J S Bolger Ronan Whelan 3(4) 1-6122 Magician 38 t 4 9-7 A P O´Brien Joseph O'Brien 4(1) 15-241 Mukhadram 21 5 9-7 William Haggas Dane O'Neill 5(2) 21-221 Telescope 35 4 9-7 Sir Michael Stoute Ryan Moore 6(6) 223-32 Trading Leather 21 4 9-7 J S Bolger Kevin Manning 7(8) 141 Eagle Top 36 3 8-9 John Gosden William Buick 8(5) 3123 Romsdal 49 3 8-9 John Gosden Richard Hughes 9(7) 1-11 Taghrooda 50 3 8-6 John Gosden Paul Hanagan |
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Any ideas as to why no betting for TELESCOPE and TAGHROODA WITH hills?
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They're on the hills site on my phone.
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I see brigust is getting his excuses in early - if he's not happy with the result it will be down to a slow pace or something.
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AT the Eclipse was a bit of a screw up where we learned almost nothing. What happens on Saturday will determine a lot of punters bets in the coming weeks and months, including mine. Had the Eclipse been truly run I guess we would know more about the 3 year olds and I hope after Saturday we know more. If you think for one second I have to make excuses about my bets you are misguided in the extreme.
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how comes you thought the eclipse wasn't truly run brigust?? there was a speed bias (frontrunners) yes but that isn't to say the race wasn't not truly run imo it just payed to be handy but the race itself was run at a pretty even gallop
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