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King George IV & Queen Anne Stakes 26th July

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Replies: 661
By:
Figgis
When: 08 Jul 14 20:52
Anyway, brig, have to go now, as much as it's a very tough call between watching the football and reading your pontifications, the football just edges it Wink
By:
sintonian
When: 08 Jul 14 20:55
People usually come up with conspiracies when they have been burned or wronged. I wonder if Brig backed Harbinger for the Arc.
By:
brigust1
When: 08 Jul 14 21:09
Actually I don't even know what Harbingers rating is. And I certainly never backed him for the Arc.

A fractured leg? Really? St Nic and Mill Reef were in the papers showing the fractured leg in plaster. Can't say I remember anything like that with Harbinger. I'm not saying he wasn't injured in some way but you have to think it was highly suspicious and probably fortuitous. After all Highclere are a commercial organisation, aren't they? Anyway my reasons were that had he raced on e could have been a superstar. Nothing wrong with wanting superstars is there?

A DECISION on the racing future of Harbinger, the world's highest-rated horse who suffered a career-threatening injury on Saturday morning, could be taken on Monday following discussions between all interested parties.

John Warren, a director of Harbinger's owners, Highclere Thoroughbred Racing, has revealed that an announcement will be made after those discussions, although Warren said on Saturday it was "a longshot" that the four-year-old would ever race again.

Speaking on Sunday, Warren said: "Harbinger has recovered very well from the surgery and had his cast taken off today. He has eaten up and is very comfortable and in very good condition, which is the most important thing.

"We will be making an announcement about Harbinger's racing future tomorrow following discussions with all concerned in the next 24 hours. We will discuss what is in the best interests of the horse, and if that means that a decision can be made, we will make it."

A fractured leg on Saturday, Cast off on Sunday, decision about future on Monday. You work it out.
By:
Figgis
When: 08 Jul 14 21:55
http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2010/aug/07/harbinger-injury-sir-michael-stoute

his groom, Maria Doe, noticed that he was lame.

Happily, the injury poses little threat to Harbinger's life, according to one expert, who nevertheless felt that a return to the track must be regarded as most unlikely. Peter Webbon, who was the senior veterinary advisor to the Jockey Club and is now the chief executive of the Animal Health Trust, said: "A condylar fracture is one of the commonest racing fractures and it's generally pretty treatable. If it's not displaced, some people would treat it by putting it in a cast, although you would normally put in screws to hold the bones together. Generally speaking, horses make a good recovery."

Webbon has not examined Harbinger but said there could be no chance of him returning to the track until next season, at the earliest, and probably not until "this sort of time of year".

"In terms of a return to full, normal health, the outlook is normally good but it would be pretty unlikely that he would return to the sort of stunning form that we saw the other day.

"There's always a risk [that such an injury could ultimately prove fatal] but this would be one of the fractures that, depending on whether or not it's displaced and how many pieces there are, is one of the better ones to get."


The list of conspirators grows. Curiouser and curiouser Confused
By:
brigust1
When: 08 Jul 14 22:22
His groom NOTICED he was lame. Well thank goodness for that.

Webbon has NOT examined Harbinger. Why not? 'Some people would treat it by putting it in a cast'. Laugh Cast on Saturday and off Sunday. Magic.

You and I know this was very fortuitous and potentially financially crucial. I'm not blaming them and I might easily have done it myself given the chance but it is almost as peculiar as the win in the first place.
By:
brigust1
When: 08 Jul 14 22:23
And by the way 'I have just noticed he is lame'. Cool
By:
brigust1
When: 08 Jul 14 22:31
Lame Saturday after exercise. Noticed by the lad. Operate on Saturday afternoon by a team of vets and put on a cast. Take off the cast on Sunday it should have done its job by then. Fooking magic. Have a meeting on Monday to decide future. Are you kidding me? No need for a conspiracy theory ffs.
By:
Figgis
When: 08 Jul 14 22:37
Webbon has NOT examined Harbinger. Why not?

Erm ,possibly because he wasn't the ****g vetLaugh

I accept what Harbinger did was a great performance. NEVER have I questioned his rating. NEVER.
You and I know this was very fortuitous and potentially financially crucial.

Speak for yourself, but that sounds to me very much like someone who is questioning a rating and that it would be repeated.
By:
Figgis
When: 08 Jul 14 22:41
his groom, Maria Doe

Noticed by the lad.


Good work ColumboWink
By:
brigust1
When: 08 Jul 14 23:10
I can tell you have never been out in the world Figgis.Laugh

In fact I never have questioned his rating but as you have kept banging on tonight I thought I might look a bit deeper. And guess what? Another own goal for ratings. Another classic case of rating a horse through horses that under perform. Fooking joke. Talk about the older handicappers the new ones are completely fooking clueless. How can you rate a horse through horses that fail to run to form?
Just add to the list. This new lot must have been instructed to 'find a few heroes because this era would be completely bare otherwise'. LaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh
By:
brigust1
When: 08 Jul 14 23:11
I'm off to bed and I will leave the 'ratings experts' to it. They must be feeling like Brazil about now.Wink
By:
sintonian
When: 09 Jul 14 07:39
Looks like Brig is ruining yet another thread. Sad
By:
Masterminded
When: 09 Jul 14 09:08
Can we have a bit of respect for the OP and get back on topic. It gets tedious reading through all of these irrelevant arguments.
By:
FELTFAIR
When: 09 Jul 14 09:18
Sorry Masterminded, you know what boys are like. "My knob is bigger than yours" and all that stuff.CryCry
By:
brigust1
When: 09 Jul 14 09:55
I suggest you look at the posts of 5.14 and 7.21 Sin before you start pointing the finger mate!

And, yes please, can we get back to discussing King George?
By:
Figgis
When: 09 Jul 14 11:33
But it doesn't look like a betting race for me.

I would've thought if that's the best somebody can come up with they'd have nothing worthwhile to add to the discussion, apart from maybe dissing the runners.
By:
brigust1
When: 09 Jul 14 11:36
I've had a bet on Ruler of the World at 12s. He is a Derby winner and I remember backing Teenoso at 10s to win when he did. Unlike ROTW Teenoso had won a couple of races before the KG but I'm pretty certain had ROTW turned up in those races this year he would have won them. He wants 12f and I cannot see many opportunities for him after this. He was favourite for the Coronation Cup and working well before his muscle tweak. His form in the Champion Stakes, Prix Niel and Arc aren't bad in comparison with some of these. He had SpiritJim, beat Noble Mission, behind him in the Niel and Mukhadram behind him in the Champion Stakes. He won't mind any ground.
His form has only one blip at that was in the Irish Derby ridden out the back by JOB. He won the Derby, was touched off in the Niel, 3rd in the Champion Stakes and didn't act on the AW in Meydan. At the time they hought he would improve from 3 to 4 and if he has he will take some beating.

I'm not sure his stable companion Magician is a solid 12f horse so will have other opportunities.

It's a bit of a punt but at 12s I think its worth it. He will be a lot shorter if he lines up.
By:
brigust1
When: 09 Jul 14 11:37
Good enough for you? I was writing just as you were reverting to type!!
By:
Figgis
When: 09 Jul 14 11:51
That's more like it. I rate ROTW the worst Derby winner since Sir Percy. Obviously he didn't run his race in the Irish Derby but I believe Trading Leather's form still stacked up better last year and would've beaten him anyway. The Niel was very slowly run and the Champion Stakes was run at a moderate early pace on soft ground, to my eyes ROTW was just staying on after the others had kicked and run their races. It'll be interesting to see how he fares this year, whether he can improve or even improve in line with the wfa scale as he'll need to, Camelot didn't. I'd say it's not a good sign he hasn't run until now, as from memory all the good older horses from Coolmore in the past had run and shown some form at this stage. I'd say 12/1 is no more than he should be but will readily admit I was wrong if he can win.
By:
sintonian
When: 09 Jul 14 12:27
I tweeted Al Shaqab racing yesterday evening asking what the latest news with him was. This is the reply

Al Shaqab Racing ‏@AlShaqabRacing  16h
@redofpurple He is in very good shape and will be aimed at later summer/ Autumn races.


Whether that means he runs or not I wouldn't be sure. Given he missed the CC he may use this a prep for one of the Champion Stakes, Ire or York.
By:
bazzar
When: 09 Jul 14 12:31
Surely you mean Queen Elizabeth, not Anne, sint!!!!
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 09 Jul 14 12:33
it's a deliberate error, he's got King George IV instead of VI as well!
By:
sintonian
When: 09 Jul 14 13:00
Too many Kings & Queens in this Country. Crazy
By:
Millerracing67
When: 09 Jul 14 14:22
Only The One Queen sint & God bless her (Our wee Liz Silly)
Keep up the "friendly" banter lads Confused.
By:
brigust1
When: 09 Jul 14 14:56
Lets hope 26th July is late summer. Through Hillstar he should beat Trading Leather and the supposedly slower early pace in the Arc, Niel and Champion Stakes (can't see that) were against him and he has about the best form while a strongly run race should suit against these. I wouldn't see him taking on Australia in the Irish Champion and maybe the Juddmonte but with AOB second guessing his placements are impossible. In a head to head I wouldn't fear any of those listed but he needs to run first.
By:
Roger De Bris
When: 09 Jul 14 16:22
"Incidentally, I had Harbinger only improving 1lb in the KG"....

Just about every other form evaluation method on the planet would disagree with this. Would I be right or wrong?

Performances from 2010 are not compared directly with performances from 2014.

They are compared with performances on the same card.
By:
Figgis
When: 09 Jul 14 16:31
1lb on the clock
By:
Roger De Bris
When: 09 Jul 14 16:38
He burst the clock in the KG on the bridle carrying more weight than the Hardwicke, where he ran slower and was lashed many times.
By:
brigust1
When: 09 Jul 14 16:40
My point was that on 5th June Workforce beat Midas Touch by 11 lengths in the Derby. On 27th June Cape Blanco beat Midas Touch 1/2 length in the Irish Derby. That put Workforce 11 lengths in front of Cape Blanco. On 24 July Harbinger beat Cape Blanco 11 lengths. That puts Harbinger and Workforce equal. That is my point. Surely Worforce and Harbinger should be rated the same?
By:
brigust1
When: 09 Jul 14 16:41
Sorry Workforce bt Midas Touch 11.5 lengths in the Derby..
By:
Figgis
When: 09 Jul 14 16:43
He burst the clock in the KG on the bridle carrying more weight than the Hardwicke, where he ran slower and was lashed many times.

I'm comparing times on the same day, trying to compare times on different days is futile, as has already been said. He won the KG more easily because the others underperformed to different degrees.
By:
Roger De Bris
When: 09 Jul 14 16:50
Cape Blanco didnt run his race in the KG.

Harbinger's KG is a better performance than Workforce's Derby. All imo of course.
By:
Roger De Bris
When: 09 Jul 14 16:53
How do you think speed figures are compiled?? They compare times on the same day,form a going allowance, and then a SF.

Then you can compare the SF from one day to another.

What's the point of compiling SF's if you can't compare one day to another....
By:
brigust1
When: 09 Jul 14 16:57
If you think Cape Blanco never ran his race in the KG then Workforce should have beaten Harbinger on form.
By:
Roger De Bris
When: 09 Jul 14 16:58
Epsom is not Ascot. Cape Blanco underperformed and Workforce ran even worst.
By:
brigust1
When: 09 Jul 14 17:02
No wonder I'm confused.
By:
Figgis
When: 09 Jul 14 17:03
I'm not really sure what is being argued here as far as time ratings go. You only have to look at the difference between the likes of Topspeed, Raceform and Timeform to know that there can be great differences between ratings. That's exactly as it should be, as despite what is often implied on tv there are subjective opinions involved in time analysis. On this forum in 2010 I said Harbinger had clocked an excellent time in the Hardwicke and that he was a great bet for the KG, which was rubbished at the time. There are many occasions when my analysis is wrong, such as Telescope last year. However, it would be very rare for me to use phrases like a horse is a "lump on job" and "I'd be shocked if he's beaten", unless I rated the horse very highly indeed. The time Harbinger clocked in the KG was no surprise to me, as he'd already ran very close to that previously. The difference was the opposition ran below par, whereas in the Hardwicke Duncan ran above par.
By:
metro john
When: 09 Jul 14 19:13
Hello figgis,why to you percieve the opposistion ran below form in the KG? what price would Harbinger have been for the ARC?,would you have bet Workforce against Harbinger in the ARC? Why is it that horses finishing behind Frankel not given the same analysis? and finally,it is not good if time - speed ratings are in such disagreement,in merely prove the that there is no science behind it!
By:
layingisthewayforward
When: 09 Jul 14 19:17
Some of you guys obviously know your stuff but feck me you carry on like children. for What Its worth, if Its good/firm i think magician is the one.
By:
metro john
When: 09 Jul 14 19:35
Bring on sectionals,stop the misinformation(one time,one distance no more bollox)
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