One other note of caution re Free Eagle as far as AP betting is concerned and that is he is good moving horse who like Australia would be better suited by good to fast going. With his history of a serious leg fracture, Weld would be cautious about running him on soft ground, I should think.

Arc is a bigger, arguably more winnable prize for Moyglare / D Weld .. and he looks like he'd handle the softer ground, certainly his breeding suggests so, and the trip is considered ideal.

The plan is to give Free Eagle a run at one / the other and if Australia is going to the Champions then I think it would be very wise to send Free Eagle to the Arc, a very winnable Arc.

Australia has shown several times he is far from bomb proof so I don't see why Free Eagle should avoid him. Their race as 2yo's was not a literal representation of the ability between the horses. Free Eagle was not right that day and both trainer & jockey have said as much.

As for FE being targetted at the Arc, well, how do we know he hasn't? He ran on Arc trials weekend just not in France.

Sandown, I don't see the argument for FE needing fast ground because of his leg fracture. The opposite argument was made for Kingman earlier in the season after his set-back, even though it was based on assumption.

Sintonian

Are you suggesting that Weld' Arc record could be seen in a different light if Famous Name had won the French Derby?

I agree, unless on already at massive prices it is hard to get involved. What might be a more savvy bet though is to back Free Eagle in double with Australia in the Champions Stakes. Some firm are quoting prices for both races and the double pays 44/1. IF, and it's a risk obviously, FE did go to France then that would open the door up nicely for Aus in the Champion Stakes. At the odds you could use it as a saving stake. Spanner in the works would be soft/heavy ground at Ascot OR if Kingman was absent from the QEII and they sent Aus for the mile.

No, re Famous Name, but it would give him a better record of race victories in France and perhaps highlights why he does not target races over there that much, due to the nature of the draw in the big races. But anyway, has Weld actually had that many good horses in recent years? He has a lot of Group 3 types but not many above that.

Has Weld actually had that many good horses in recent years? He has a lot of Group 3 types but not many above that.

He's had enough given the races he has won I would have thought in that time


Dermot Weld
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Dermot Weld
Occupation     Trainer
Born     29 July 1948
Ireland
Career wins     3000+ (ongoing)
Major racing wins

European Flat racing:
Irish Oaks (1981, 1996)
Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp (1984, 1985)
Irish 2,000 Guineas (1986)
Irish 1,000 Guineas (1982, 1988, 2006, 2010)
Derby Italiano (1992)
St. James's Palace Stakes (1992)
Bayerisches Zuchtrennen (1993)
Irish St. Leger
(1993, 1994, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004)
Irish Derby (1996, 2004)
Prix Royal-Oak (2001)

British Classic Race wins:
Epsom Oaks (1981)
2,000 Guineas (2003)

American Classic Race wins:
Belmont Stakes (1990)

International:
Hong Kong Mile (1991)
Melbourne Cup (1993, 2002)[1]
Secretariat Stakes (2008)

Steeplechase / Hurdling:
Anniversary 4-Y-O Novices' Hurdle (1986)
Irish Grand National (1988)
Triumph Hurdle (1990)
Irish Champion Hurdle (1994, 1995)
Punchestown Gold Cup (1980)
Racing awards
Champion trainer (Ireland), 21 times
Significant horses
Vintage Crop, Blue Wind, Committed, Media Puzzle
Grey Swallow, Go and Go, Vinnie Roe






    Irish 1000 Guineas - (4) - Prince's Polly (1982), Trusted Partner (1988), Nightime (2006), Bethrah (2010)
    Irish 2000 Guineas - (1) - Flash of Steel (1986)
    Irish Derby - (2) - Zagreb (1996), Grey Swallow (2004)
    Irish Oaks - (2) - Blue Wind (1981), Dance Design (1996)
    Irish St Leger - (7) - Vintage Crop (1993, 1994), Vinnie Roe (2001, 2002, 2003, 2004), Voleuse De Coeurs (2013)
    Matron Stakes - (3) - Valley Forge (1977), Dress to Thrill (2002), Emulous (2011)
    Moyglare Stud Stakes - (1) - Flutter Away (1987)
    National Stakes - (5) - Diamonds Are Trumps (1977), Day Is Done (1981), Definite Article (1994), Mus-If (1998), Refuse to Bend (2002)
    Phoenix Stakes - (2) - Kilijaro (1978), Smokey Lady (1979)
    Pretty Polly Stakes - (4) - Market Booster (1992), Dance Design (1996, 1997), Chinese White (2010)
    Tattersalls Gold Cup - (5) - Cockney Lass (1987), Definite Article (1996), Dance Design (1997), Grey Swallow (2005), Casual Conquest (2009)

Australia Australia

    Melbourne Cup - (2) - Vintage Crop (1993), Media Puzzle (2002)

France France

    Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp - (2) - Committed (1984, 1985)
    Prix Royal-Oak - (1) - Vinnie Roe (2001)

Germany Germany

    Bayerisches Zuchtrennen - (1) - Market Booster (1993)

United Kingdom Great Britain

    2000 Guineas - (1) - Refuse to Bend (2003)
    Ascot Gold Cup - (1) - Rite of Passage (2010)
    Cheveley Park Stakes - (1) - Sookera (1977)
    Coronation Stakes - (1) - Sutton Place (1978)
    Golden Jubilee Stakes - (2) - Committed (1984), Big Shuffle (1987)
    Middle Park Stakes - (1) - Steel Heart (1974)
    Nunthorpe Stakes - (1) - Committed (1984)
    Epsom Oaks - (1) - Blue Wind (1981)
    St. James's Palace Stakes - (1) - Brief Truce (1992)
    Sun Chariot Stakes - (1) - Dress to Thrill (2002)

    Triumph Hurdle - (1) - Rare Holiday (1990)

Hong Kong Hong Kong

    Hong Kong Mile - (1) - Additional Risk (1991)

Italy Italy

    Derby Italiano - (1) - In a Tiff (1992)

United States United States

    American Derby - (3) - Pine Dance (2000), Evolving Tactics (2003), Simple Exchange (2004)
    American Oaks - (1) - Dimitrova (2003)
    Belmont Stakes - (1) - Go and Go (1990)
    Flower Bowl Invitational Stakes - (1) - Dimitrova (2003)
    Secretariat Stakes - (1) - Winchester (2008)

Am I the only one who thinks Australia should be running in the Arc? Has anyone else seen this amazing mile - 10 furlong speed they are talking about? What on earth are they thinking about? I would understand a proviso of soft ground but to dismiss it seems like typical Coolmore lunacy to me.

Any work AOB did over the summer when giving Aus a break, i.e missing the King George and not having him cherry ripe for York, would probably have been wasted after that ride from Joey.

Interesting article on Racing UK site

Ectot did not so much as prise open the ante-post market to the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, but smashed his way to the forefront of the bookmakers’ lists when he won the Qatar Prix Niel at Longchamp on Sunday.

His intoxicating blend of pace, power and stamina was simply too much for Telextext, who finished second, and in registering the second fastest time in the traditional Arc prep since 1980 he now trades at as short as 5-1 for the Paris spectacle in three weeks.

Ectot streaked into the lead with a turn of foot reminiscent of Kingman in the short Longchamp straight to win by a neck under Gregory Benoist. Adelaide was a length and a quarter behind in third.

Coral slashed Ectot, who was as big as 50-1 last week, to 6-1 for the Arc in three week’s, while William Hill, Skybet, Bet Victor were still 10-1.

Following the defeat of Treve in the Prix Vermeille over an hour later, Ectot is now vying for Arc favouritism with Taghrooda, Avenir Certain and Japan raider Just A Way.

“I think that was seriously impressive, I don’t think anybody believed he would win like that, or travel like that,” Harry Herbert, racing manager to part owners Al Shaqab said.  “It was his acceleration that was so amazing.”

Trainer Elie Lellouche’s best effort in the Arc was Westender’s runner-up spot in 2005 to Hurricane Run, who is Ectot sire. Hurricane Run used the Niel as a springboard to his Arc win in 2005 and Rail Link followed the same path 12 moths later.

Since then only Sagara in 2007 and Cavalryman in 2009 have squeezed onto the Arc podium from 15 runners, having showed their hands in the Niel.

Whether Ectot is good enough remains to be seen, but there must be a fair bit of improvement to come having not run since April when he beat subsequent French Guineas winner Karakontie in the Prix de Fontainebleau over a mile.

“He will improve a fair bit, he’s come into the race three-quarter cooked and the view was to be very sympathetic on him today. He has surprised everybody today in a race that looked a decent pace for Longchamp,” Herbert added.                 

The win places Benoist in a powerful position, as he is also the regular partner of Avenir Certain, the unbeaten dual Classic-winning filly who is as short as 5-1 for next month’s season-defining event.

He was not in a hurry to make a decision.

“Avenir Certain is more relaxed, having raced at the top level more, whereas Ectot is more strong and powerful and when Teletext came to us I was impressed by how he accelerated again,” Benoist said. “I really don’t know but I can make my decision at the last minute.”


No stamina doubts for me here.

Figgis
16 Sep 14 11:04
Joined:
28 Sep 04
| Topic/replies: 4,921 | Blogger: Figgis's blog
I think he'll take some beating in either race but I'd definitely go for the Arc. If he goes to Ascot I wouldn't be worried about TGG, as for me Free Eagle achieved slightly more on Saturday without having as hard a race. These things aren't set in stone but TGG is a prime candidate for a bounce next time, imo.





i know what you are trying to say in regards to free eagles romp but i wouldn't say for sure that this grey gatsby will bounce from the run, just because he seems so tough and progressed nicely from york, of course he might bounce as he was asked to go into the red but he seems so tough i could see him come forward again when getting his conditions but if he were to be run in tactical affair, this would also be against him, as it was at york...if any horse bounced or didn't come forward for the run it was australia who despite the trainer saying he had only had a modest preparation he looked plenty ready enough to me and ran right through the line at york...he ran the same race at leopardstown but didn't progress from york whereas the winner did

if you look at the grey gatsby closely he seems far more of a grinder than a quickener (giants causeway type) and the reverse for australia who appears to have more gears...when analysing york where they didn't go as quick early as at leopardstown, when the pace quickened at the 3 pole and running down to the 2 pole the grey gatsby got caught slightly in a pocket, when he eventually saw daylight he had 4 lengths to make up and his chance had gone, as he could only stay on at the same pace...

at leopardstown it was different as he didn't get caught in the pocket and his raking stride and the decent pace allowed him to grind down the quickener...a lot has been said about the ride but you have to be ultra critical to say it was chronic and free eagle himself span wide into the straight earlier in the card, the overweight is the despicable thing...

the grey gatsby - if i had my way he would go to the breeders cup classic as think he would love it, bit off the cuff but love the way this horse goes about things and could see him running a massive race it would also give the trainer the time to get the horse over this race, just a thought...i also think it is admirable they are keeping him in training as he doesn't have a whole lot to prove but great all the same

when coming back to free eagle he is a typical bounce horse for next time but that isn't to say he will, however he has all the hallmarks if turning out quickly in the arc of being one, whereas he would have more time for ascot...

bounces are strange in regard to visual sight and how much a horse have actually exerted themselves...looking at free eagle closely he did everything so easily but was given the office to go and win by the rider...free eagle to my eye looked tired in the last 50 yards and after the line the runners were soon up next to him to say he probably didn't have a whole lot left(i maybe wrong)...

on one hand this can mean he just needed the run and in which case if coming forward we are dealing with a very good horse (which i think we are by the way) or he exerted himself far more than people think and in which case he is liable to bounce from the run if turned out quickly or in this case, will he improve from this high figure?? i really don't know tbh but i for one am always wary of such horses until i see them back up and in this horses case i would need to see him back up to consider him a bet in the future

Too much being made of the time, in my view. As can be gathered from the overall times for the card the ground was much faster than usual for the meeting. The time was the quickest of the three races over the trip but even to the eye it was obvious they didn't go much of a pace in the other two races. The splits also point to the other two races being run slow early on, with Ectot's race being more evenly run. I will accept that on occasions horses finishing close up can get 'dragged along' by a fast pace and run a better figure than they normally would, but I find it hard to believe that the first 4 are all true Gp1 horses or that all three close behind got dragged along. Possibly Ectot was running within himself and can do better, he was certainly travelling very comfortably for most of the race, but this wasn't a fast time performance, imo.

Timeform say it was fwiw.

https://www.timeform.com/Racing/Articles/Sectional_Debrief_Special_Arc_Trials_Day_at_Longchamp

I don't rate him especially highly, sint, always looked more of a Leger type horse to me, although I doubt he'd have finished better than second to Kingston Hill.

Sandown, you must also rate Adelaide fairly highly then?

122+.Incidently, re official times, again I'm finding that my hand times indicatte that french times are about 0.4 secs fast. I think maybe that they start after gates have opened or perhaps as with US times they have the clock starting some metres in front of the stalls. Same for all of 12f trials of course but it affects shorter distances more, so has some affect on allowances, albeit small.

Sintonian

As I said earlier, Adelaide is Oz bound which is appropriate given his name. He has a Cox Plate entry.  Ryan Moore will probably ride.

Sandown • September 16, 2014 12:30 PM BST
A horse's breeding is only a rough guide for ground preference, unlike distance preference. His action is what matters and FE looks a fast ground action. We have NO soft ground form to go on.I agree that firm ground would be as equally off-putting as heavy ground to Weld but anything between g/soft & g/firm would be acceptable I should think.

That's true - breeding doesn't indicate as clearly a guide to ability to act on a surface as it does stamina, but in the case of Free Eagle it's very compelling - two half-siblings who performed at best (winning group 2,3 races) on soft and a dam who her maiden on heavy.

Also, the times at Leopardstown were just 'good' .. definitely a cut and not fast, seemed to suit Free Eagle perfectly.

Dermot Weld had said himself during the week prior “I have taken my time with some of these horses who need cut. They are doing very well but they won’t run if conditions are too fast.”

He's a beautiful athletic horse now, but there's plenty of size about him and to my eye he has the action to be effective anywhere from soft to good.