Isn't he too inexperienced to win an Arc with just 3 runs? Has a horse ever won the Arc with such little exp before?

Free Eagle. Looked good on Sat but surely not going to Arc with just that run this year. More likely next year.

Ectot I don't have stamina concerns. He is bred at least as stoutly if not more so than most of his main rivals. If you are basing a case on his run yesterday - idling or running out of stamina - I don't think that is enough evidence. Its just as likely that he needed the run as he was pretty fresh through the race and the way he swept past horses making up 6 lengths coming wide around the turn in would have taken something out of him, so its not surprising really that he seemed to tie up at the end. But, to my eyes he looked as though he went on again when the second came alongside.If it comes up soft - odds against given the ground yesterday, a dry autumn forecast and the use of fresh ground on the day- he will handle it. Only heavy ground would introduce a trip doubt.

I've rated him more highly than does the RP. On projections this horse compares favorably with previous Arc winners so he has the right profile. The competition has far more question marks than he has. I'm every bit as strong on him as I was on Treve last year.

Ah yeah that could be why. Unusual for them not to have all bases covered otherwise.

Don't think you can generalise about number of runs needed. Every horse is different so fact that Lammtarra came off 3 doesn't really help with Free Eagle. Also, L won the Derby without a prep so he had form for light prep.Like with Ectot, the main concern would be how he comes out of the race.

He's a good horse alright but not sure that I'd rate him that high just yet. The Champion stakes will be a great race if he renews rivalry with Australia.

For french trainers the Arc is the be all and all so no surprise that Ectot is targetted at it after an injury lay-off but for Weld, the Champion probably makes more sense this year. He's not a trainer who has sent many horses for the Arc if memory serves me right.

As far as the Arc goes I'd want to wait until decs, draw and probable ground conditions were apparent before making a selection.  If it is a fast ground arc then you can quite confidently put a line through anything drawn in double figures, on easy going I'd be big on Taghrooda

Cryoftruth

I am not saying the wfa scale is wrong full stop, but i do believe (as eluded to by Figgis) that horses do mature at different rates, so some 3 year olds will have an advantage at the weights.
If I believe there is a top class classic winner (Derby or Oaks) then that horse will be not only superior to his generation but also more forward. It is a big ask for a 3 year old to put up a really high rating so early in their career over 12f. So if they carry on improving/developing over the season then they do (IMO) have an advantage in the Arc.

I believe they also have an advantage in the George too. I know their strike rate is not very high in recent years but not many top class Classic winners have ran at Ascot.
Lammtarra, Galileo, Alamshar, Nathaniel & Taghrooda are the only winners I can think of from the Classic generation to have succeeded in the last 20 runnings.
Others to have tried and failed are High Rise, Shaamit, Oath, Workforce & Trading Leather. With the exception of Workforce I'm not sure you could call any of these top class Classic winners.

This years Arc I think there are a couple of potentially classy 3 years olds, Ectot, Taghrooda & Free Eagle (if declared).
But I believe there is a high class older horse in Just A Way. If the ground stays on the good side he has to go close and would not surprise me if he won easily. I will hold on for a few more days to make sure everything is well with the animal but he could be the one to break the Japanese duck. I think also he is the first Japanese horse since El Condor Pasa to win a Group 1 outside of his homeland too. (Might be wrong on that).

Sandown, I'd say the Fiesolana time was held back by the early pace of the race, but I still think JFK is a serious Derby contender, can't see him having enough pace for the Guineas though.

Since el condor pasa,japanese gp 1 winners,(outside japan)....

agnes world-july cup
gentildonna--sheema classic
victoire pisa-dubai world cup
delta blues-melb0ourne cup
hearts cry-sheema classic
stay gold-sheema classic
cosmo bulk-singapore cup
stay gold-h kong vase
just a way-dubai duty free
admire moon-dubai duty free

probably missed a few others.

backing all 3 japanese,not sure j a way will stay though.

very hard to weigh up just a way...

not sure where he has been his whole career (5 now) till his last 4 starts where has he been? he is certainly a very good horse and making up for lost time now...can he stay is the big question and the race he won at 1m2f last year was slowly run, so very hard to gauge whether he can do it...also no prep race...

workforce is the only horse in the last 11 years to win off a lay off from july - just a way has been off since june...a real tough ask for this high class horse but can he stay we just don't know but i'd want slightly bigger odds because of this and the fact he hasn't prepped and a 5 year hasn't won since the stayer marienbard in 2002 and before that tony bin in 88 - then star appeal in 1975, you then have to back to 1947 to find the other 5 year old

everything stacked against him but a fascinating runner all the same, just should be a tad bigger price with so much against him

I remember the ex Cecil trained horse Saumarez winning the Arc having not run over 12f previously, don't know if there have been any more. Wouldn't put me off Free Eagle at it's simply due to training problems that he's never raced over 12f, looks absolutely nailed on to get the trip well, imo.

I am really impressed by the form of the 3yo colts and fillies this year. Australia beat Kingston Hill and Romsdal in the Derby and all 3 have upheld the form while The Great Gatsby and Free Eagle form ties in closely. Tagrhooda was just beaten at York but is still an Oaks and KG winner. I can't quite see any of the Vermeille fillies being good enough this year. Ectot is hard to weigh up but is clearly very talented. I would be happy to lay 8/1 against anything older than 3.

Free Eagle is under consideration for the Arc according to Dermot Weld in this morning's Irish Times

He did run a quicker time than TGG and Australia and Timeform rated him 128p after the run - great pedigree to see out 12f and soft ground (Medicean-Sister; Saphire G2 winner over 12f on Soft, Notnowcato-brother; Custom Cut G3 winner on Soft, Dam maiden winner on Heavy)

Pat Smullen reported to regard the 12f as a perfect trip, looks really promising. Especially if they prefer to avoid an extremely competitive British Champions ... Could be the big surprise - certainly his win at Leopardstown was much more taking than Ectot or any other runner at the weekend, that's imo.

He's come out of the race very well  - he was driven in the straight but didn't actually have as hard a race as TGG or Aus .. he had it won 1f out, so ...

This years Arc does look very competitive, numbers wise, whereas last season we had a French champion in Treve and a Japanese champion in Orfevre. The UK hasn’t been properly represented since Workforce. This time I cannot have the older horses for any number of reasons. Treve is a watching brief, Just a Way has benefited from others retiring and is really a mile - 10f horse on fast ground.
That makes the three year olds look pretty solid.
From Japan we have Harp Star their 1000 Gns winner who beat Gold Ship over an inadequate distance for him of 10f. That form is not good enough normally. Her form is on fast ground and not exactly outstanding but they probably realise 3 year old fillies do well here so have aimed her at this. She is not guaranteed to get the trip or act on the ground.
The Germans have Iwanhoe, the beaten German Derby favourite, who was well beaten behind Spiritjim and Noble Mission so will have to improve a lot to be competitive. If there were real stamina questions about the others he would be a threat but there are not.
From Ireland we have Free Eagle, Tapestry and Leading Light. Leading Light isn’t good enough and this would be a massive leap for Free Eagle. He looked good beating trees at Leopardstown so anyone with a big price can feel happy but if he runs I think his price will be shorter than his chance. If Tapestry runs she would have a right chance but it looks very unlikely.
From France we have Avenir Certain and Ectot. Both have won their races well but don’t carry the expectations of Treve or Zarkava. Both are not necessarily guaranteed to improve at the trip and the horses they have beaten are not unbeatable with real question marks over them. The jockey is undecided at the moment so is it likely he has two champions on his hands? 
From the UK we have Taghrooda, Kingston Hill and Eagle Top. Taghroda ticks all of the boxes. She  looks solid and probably should be unbeaten. She will get the trip well, act on the ground and has the class.
Kingston Hill represents the classic colts and must be in with a right shout if the Australia hype is to be believed.
Eagle Top should run but he may not. He will stay the trip and enjoy the ground. He is fresh and has had a good break since Ascot. JG must know Eagle Top has the beating of Kingston Hill through Romsdal and he thought enough of him to supplement him for the KG. In fact I think he thought he would win the KG with Eagle Top until it was decided to run Taghrooda. Eagle Top followed he round Ascot but she got away from him in the straight where he was running on and not given a hard time. I think he could easily have finished second that day and they looked after him. Lady Bamford did pay a supplement for the King George and may be prepared to do so again. Also  JG swerved the St Leger with Eagle Top where he must have gone close having Romsdal finishing a close second. I think he had this race fully in mind. He is a 12f horse do he will not be thinking about Champions Day or Breeders Cup. This is his race imo. He was 4 lengths behind Taghrooda at Ascot and I feel JG is seeing how she goes in her preps for the race before supplementing Eagle Top. Maybe he thinks he cannot beat her and put him away until next year.
But I think he will run and be Taghrooda‘s biggest danger.
So on vibes alone and the bits of form that there are through Australia, Kingston Hill and Romsdal then Taghrooda and Eagle Top has their beating. Through Adelaide at Ascot Eagle Top has the beating of Ectot who the jockey cannot decide is better than Avenir Certain or not so that cannot be decisive. That puts Eagle Top and therefore Taghrooda in front of the French challengers. Imo.

I think Dermot Weld put it down to him being a bit big and plain as a 2yo but he's a seriously good horse now, indeed as evidenced by his run ...

this is what he told the Irish Times last night,

“What I can say is the plan is he will run again this year and it will be either the Arc or the Champion Stakes."

Whilst Free Eagle ran very well on his comeback, talk of the Arc is something of a surprise for me.Dermot Weld is perhaps the trailblazer for the Irish & English with his big wins all over the world, especially in the US & Australia.What surprises me is his relatively low profile in France where his record so far is the Abbaye (twice) and the Royal Oak.

Since 1990 he has run just 4 horses and been represented 5 times in the Arc, the last being Grey Swallow in 2004 (18th @ 5/1). The others were Vinnie roe in 2003 (5th @11/1) Market Booster in 1993 (10th@ 77/1) and again in 1992 (16th)

For some reason he is not a fan of the Arc or racing in France or maybe he just had the right horse. I would say from his earlier remarks that next year would be more likely when he can give the horse the right kind of build up the race demands. This year would be something of an after thought.

not had the right horse

King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2) 3yo, 1m4f

ADELAIDE was backed by punters as if it defeat was out of the question but Eagle Top and William Buick had other ideas as the 12-1 son of Pivotal swooped around the outside in the final two furlongs to beat off the well-backed 6-5 favourite.

The John Gosden-trained colt was last of all throughout the early stages of the race but travelled into the race beautifully and when Buick asked him to go, his response was immediate.

"We have so much belief in this horse," said Buick. "He was relaxed, he has all the attributes of a top, top racehorse.

"There was a good gallop like you would expect in a race like this, so he was able to make up a lot of ground."

It is hard to believe given the ease in which Eagle Top won the Group 2 contest that he was beaten a length and three-quarters into fourth at Leicester last time but Gosden has always had faith in the colt's ability.

"There were a lot of long faces coming home on the bus from Leicester last time, but his blood was upside down when we checked a few days later, so we gave him a long rest," said the trainer.

"He wasn't up to racing last year, but he's a really classy horse. What we've always liked about him is his ability to quicken and he has a lovely turn of foot.

"I think it's always nice to come here and have rides and then wins. But it's a long way in between until the fat lady sings."

The victory was a first Royal Ascot win for a delighted owner Lady Bamford.

"I feel weak at the knees," said Bamford. " It was a beautiful ride, set up by a beautiful trainer.

"He's very under-exposed, but he really showed his form today."

Second-placed Adelaide opened up on the morning at 3-1, but after relentless support from punters, the Aidan O'Brien-trained son of Galileo went off at 6-5 and travelled into the race well under a patient Joseph O'Brien but in the end had no answer to the potent turn of foot from the impressive winner.

Top Eagle's performance caught the eye of Paddy Power with the firm going 6-1 about him winning the Ladbrokes St Leger.


Horses like Free Eagle and Australia have lots of options whereas Eagle Top has only one.


I just think Free Eagle showed what 'class' can do to ordinary horses. Has nothing to do with ratings.