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ARC 2014

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By:
metro john
When: 11 Oct 14 17:27
yes sin,but the ratings would be taken into account.
By:
metro john
When: 11 Oct 14 17:41
I hold OMR in high esteem,and I hope he transfers and improves his obvious ability,I rate him  115P,most other handicappers are lower,but using others hcp ratings,it makes it clear that the Coolmore horses need to improve in the region of 10 lb just to match Treve,if they were rated 119-120p at this stage Treve may well have gone off for some fun.
By:
brigust1
When: 11 Oct 14 17:45
Anyone thinks owners, managers and trainers don't sit down and discuss the for's and against's of what could be million pound decisions must think these people are just plain stupid. I certainly don't think they are and would be certain they have weighed up all of the possibilities.
By:
sintonian
When: 11 Oct 14 17:47
Anyone who also thinks they made their sole decision on that, i.e you, you silly twunt, should give up betting.
By:
metro john
When: 11 Oct 14 17:48
yes brigust,in past years we have had plenty of 120 rated sorts at this stage,most of those would not be 128 sorts the following year.
By:
sintonian
When: 11 Oct 14 17:48
If you have a superstar horse, like Treve, you simply do not GAMBLE on what the opposition may be. They will not have any a better idea than you about others horses, there are dozens to consider, which says a lot.
By:
sintonian
When: 11 Oct 14 17:51
Criqutte-Head is not naive and stupid enough to assume no others horses will improve like you do Brigust. You are one th1ck s0d. Defies belief.
By:
metro john
When: 11 Oct 14 17:53
sintonian,I find your attitude offensive,I see weakness in my own ratings ,or should I say the improvement allotted to those behind the winners significant enough to make me a bit nervous about what my eyes are telling me,many others will see the same.(I am not alone)Grin
By:
sintonian
When: 11 Oct 14 17:58
I honestly could not care any less MJ. You can be all chummy with a guy who is consistently patronising if you like, but the fact of the matter is he has no idea about anything. All the evidence would support that over the months on here. A proper smug t1t. I'll leave you be though! CoolCrazy
By:
sintonian
When: 11 Oct 14 18:03
''Oh look, this 3yo has improved out of nowhere, has that ever happened before? Oh, so has that 4yo. Damn, we never saw that coming.'' Crazy
By:
metro john
When: 11 Oct 14 18:20
on with real life for a minute hope this BURAUQ delivers at wolves?
By:
metro john
When: 11 Oct 14 18:23
expectations always questionableCry
By:
A_T
When: 11 Oct 14 18:32
Consideration of this year's 2yos would have had no bearing on the decision IMO. Nothing's got near her in 2 Arcs on different going - why would they be worried?
By:
sintonian
When: 11 Oct 14 18:49
OK MJ, i'll apologise for being O.T.T rude, and to Brigust too, even though I think....ah, never mind. Looking forward to Champions Weekend at Ascot.
By:
brigust1
When: 11 Oct 14 20:01
If, when in business, you don't take into cosideration all of the options before making a business decision then you won't be in business very long. And if you are wealthy and employ people for many thousands of pounds to year to look after your interests you will expect that they have looked into every eventuality before they put a suggestion to you. Otherwise the people you employ will not find themselves in employment very long. Harry Herbert has been involved succesfully in racing for a long time and his expertise isn't luck. It is based upon doing the research before making the decision. What some may consider frivolous and unimportant is often the difference between success and failure.
By:
sintonian
When: 11 Oct 14 20:06
No sh1t. But to suggest that is what the decision is based on is lunacy, however you wish to put it.
By:
brigust1
When: 11 Oct 14 20:30
The decision they have made about Treve staying in training will have many component parts and the likelihood of success will be one of those component parts. Another, and I suggest more important, component part will the likelihood or otherwise of an injury recurrence and whether or not she will be able to compete at near her best.
What this decision has told me, though I fully expect I will be in a minority, is that the injury she suffered wasn't an injury of unknown origin and very likely, very very likely as a result of her running in the Prix Ganay followed her running in the POW Stakes. In other words a training injury. As I suspected.
By:
A_T
When: 11 Oct 14 20:35
I fully expect I will be in a minority

Agree brig
By:
brigust1
When: 11 Oct 14 20:45
That's OK A_T. It can be lonely at the top. Wink
By:
metro john
When: 11 Oct 14 20:57
Sometimes people forget this is a racing forum,and on the whole, a helpful instrument into other peoples insights,I found reading brigusts posts, that we shared a way or belief of looking at form,this is great for cross referencing thoughts,I also find many a useful insight from many other posters on here,including you sintonian,my way may not be the best,but i try not to put people away(but tempted sometimes), I get many things wrong and make many mistakes,you will not read me gloat on betting habits for I suspect many posters, much better than me on the betting, profit front.I am a racing enthusiast,and obsessive,I have views and many wacky thoughts go on between these hears(they should lock me up)Wink
By:
jonibake
When: 11 Oct 14 21:06
"Bonjour Mms CH, Sheikh Al here"
"Ah!! Bonjour CH, comment allez-vous?!"
"Oh very well thank you. Still buzzing from last weekend!"
"Oh me too your highness, moi aussi!!!"
"How is our little star?"
"Ah monsieur she is bouncing, you wouldn't think she had a race!"
"That's great. Look I've been thinking. We only really got her fit for the Arc didn't we."
"Oui, you highness, she was right back to her best wasn't she?!"
"How do you think her back would stand another year Madame?"
"Are you saying what I think you are saying?"
"Well I am thinking why not?! It's never been done before has it? 3 Arcs. That would be history. What do you think?"
"Well your highness I think pourqoui pas?!!"
"Exactement madame. We miss one year of breeding. So what? We give her an easy year. Maybe 2 or 3 runs max and then  the Bois De Boulougne!!!"
"Let's do it Sheikhyyy!!!!!!!"

I was there.
By:
sintonian
When: 11 Oct 14 21:31
yes fair enough MJ. Like I said, it was O.T.T rude.

Dear Brig, what do you think of Convey?
By:
metro john
When: 11 Oct 14 21:34
Another thought or question pops into my mind on todays anouncement of Treve staying in training,why is she not going too the Turf? some judges have commented that Treve was still a week short of very best,the ground would not appear a major problem?, non of the european challengers bar TGG who is not going can beat her?so not all positive,and something for the layers to think about?(just put ya  prices up boys)Happy






?
By:
brigust1
When: 11 Oct 14 22:05
Sin if you are asking about the KA colt who has run just the once I really have no idea. There are so many uncompetitive races nowadays at all levels that a single success against unknown opposition could be absolutely anything. I guess the boys in the stable with have a view about how he sits in their stable so until he runs again they will be a half step in front.

Careful what you say there about Treve only being fit for the Arc, Joni. I still get some stick for thinking that.
By:
sintonian
When: 13 Oct 14 22:12
ere Brig, so if you have no idea about the ability or potential of Convey, then what do you think Criquette, Harry and the Sheilh concluded when they all sat around the table pontificating (probably whilst eating cheese, salmon and humus).
By:
brigust1
When: 13 Oct 14 23:59
Ere Sin. Why do you treat everyone with such disdain? When Paddy P heard Treve was being aimed at next year's Arc they priced it up immediately. Do you think they wouldn't have taken into consideration what she may be up against? With Australia and Taghrooda both retiring do you think they didn't take that into consideration? These people are not all the fools you think they are. CH and HH are not idiots either and would have discussed all of the implications including potential opposition when they made their decision. They cannot know everything but they certainly would not have ignored the information that is already available to them.
And if you read HH's comments where he said Treve's season would start late and they would not be running her on unsuitable ground again in my opinion that says a lot about her runs earlier this season.
By:
sintonian
When: 14 Oct 14 08:04
Only you Brig. Only you. Crazy
By:
kincsem
When: 14 Oct 14 11:49
Next year they might say Treve has been retired.
Did they she she was aimed at the Arc in 2015?
It is only words.
By:
brigust1
When: 14 Oct 14 12:59
Thank goodness for that.
By:
kincsem
When: 06 Nov 14 19:40
Ten Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe winners have stood at stud in Japan.
By:
kincsem
When: 06 Nov 14 19:45
Rheingold, Dancing Brave, Tony Bin, Carroll House, Carnegie, Lammtarra, Helissio, Marienbard, Bago, Workforce.
By:
ffs
When: 28 Jan 15 19:14

Oct 11, 2014 -- 5:08PM, sintonian wrote:


I cannot believe for one second that Criquette-Head and the Sheikh, and maybe Harry Herbert, would all sit down, look at all the 2yos and all the 3yo and then decided ''yep, nothing to worry about there, lets go for another Arc'' I bet stuff like that does not even enter their heads. The trainer knows the horses better than any of us and clearly she had problems in the summer which she is now over. It's nothing to do with next seasons potential opposition. How the eff would they know if their is superstar amongst them? No-one does until it happens!!


agree with this 100% .. unless there was something one in a 100 years they would roll the dice.

In fact, the opposite view imo misses the part which attracts the Sheikhs !! They're not accountants !! It's the gamble, the take-em-on attitude which is why they love horse racing so much. Nobody knows for sure, ok some people might be good at the probabilities but I bet anything Sheikh Joaan has as much interest in OMR as he has in what you ate for dinner.

I will say that a different owner would sure take in what the likely opposition is one year hence, like say Michael Tabor or Derrick Smith (bookmakers, basically) but the Qatari Sheikhs !?!? no chance. For them they have the champion and a chance to do an unprecedented 3-in-a-row and whether OMR is 115P or 125P couldn't care less, that's what money buys you.

By:
ffs
When: 28 Jan 15 19:20
As an example closer to home, of course Glen's Melody's owners looks at what Annie Power is likely to do before they decide to keep running her, ... but Fiona McStay doesn't own 10% of the world's natural gas reserves ! .. if she did I bet she'd be far more keen to just let her mare race on and take on whoever is there.
By:
ffs
When: 28 Jan 15 19:26
and it's not like w Australia, say, who might not develop on as a 4yo and not score again at G1 - that would be a disaster. His stud fee is set for now and he'll get a top book of mares as he was foot perfect (bar the calamity at Leopardstown). Treve going on misses one breeding season, and for the chance to make a piece of history that could stand longer than any of us live! .. and she has her 2 Arcs no-one can take away from her, and she's not a commercial property like Australia, surely Sheikh Joaan will use her to support his own sires and race the offspring anyway
By:
ffs
When: 28 Jan 15 19:27
ffs. Laugh
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