For me, Len Ragozin introduced the "bounce" theory to me back in 1997 in his book "The Odds Must be Crazy" and no-one has improved  on what he had to say about the subject.

Referring back to it, I would not be too worried about the possible bounce effect on FE if we are to believe the Top Speed figure of 88 which would suggest that it wasn't a hard race. On the other hand, I know that Figgis rates the race more strongly - what is your figure Figgis? - and the high collateral rating given by RPR of 120 and even higher Tf figure of 128 (haven't seen it myself but someone -ffs? - reported it as such ) should carry more than a pinch of salt because of the time.

Given the long lay-off, the longer the recovery time after Saturdays race, the better, and the extra 2 weeks to Ascot would be a strong argument in favour of going for the Champion rather than the Arc, should there be any doubt in Weld's mind on the issue.

I would be more concerned about a possible "bounce" for Ectot. He ran a faster TS of 111 than FE (I have 116) and had an equally long lay-off. Much depends on the conditioning time given to both horses prior to their comeback races. We know that FE stood in his box for 12 weeks but when did that occur? Sctot picked up his injury in the Spring but reports suggest that it was less serious than FE's. )I son't agree at all with ffs that a fractured tibula is a commonplace injury and therefore nothing to worry about. It's serious but funnily enough Kingmans' tendon ijury was probably worse as bones heal rather better than tendons so I belive, but I'm not a vet and rely on what I read from vets.

Ectot's jockey was given instructions to give the horse an easy race so in the circumstances the performence for me was far more impressive given he was supposedly three-quarters fit, (Harry herbert) but my concerns are not to do with winning the race - on that form he will go close - but oon him getting to the race and of course not "bouncing." Hopefully, jockey/trainer know what they are doing and have been preparinghim for the Arc since April. Like with FE, missing out on ther big mid-season races will be a benefit.

It will be interesting to watch Macdillon in the first at Sandown today. He is an older horse, 44 runs, off the track for 11 months before his comeback run, and ran close to a PB both on time and form. Only 19 days since then. He would be a "bounce" candidate in theory but at 6.0 many will be tempted. I'll watch just in case.

really struggled with ectot to put him on a solid mark myself, he seems keen held up in rear every time, then just does enough when asked...i would certainly want some cut in the ground for him...really not sure how good he is at the moment, i just have him as a group 2 horse or borderline low grade 1 but i just cannot get a complete angle on him tbf as he only does enough...

interesting horse and he has been given every chance to fulfill his potential just not sure 1m2f would be more his bag but because of the tactics i just cannot be solid on this opinion or his true ability...

"It will be interesting to watch Macdillon in the first at Sandown today".


8 lb higher today,and well held by rocket rob on form last year.(a few bob on Rob)

Gregory Benoist is facing a tough choice between Ectot and Avenir Certain in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, according to connections of the leading Longchamp contenders.


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The two horses are part-owned by Gerard Augustin-Normand, with Al Shaqab a partner in Ectot and Antonio Caro the other shareholder in Avenir Certain.

Ectot made a successful return from a long lay-off when winning the Prix Niel at Longchamp on Sunday, while dual Classic winner Avenir Certain completed her preparation with victory in the Prix de la Nonette at Deauville last month.

Benoist has ridden the Elie Lellouche-trained Ectot in each of his seven career starts but has partnered Avenir Certain, who is handled by Jean-Claude Rouget, in four outings this term.

With the duo 5-1 co-favourites along with Taghrooda in some ante-post markets, Augustin-Normand's racing manager Sylvain Vidal admits retained rider Benoist is in quite a quandary.

"Everything is fine with the filly (Avenir Certain) and she is on course for Arc," he said.

"Ectot will go as well and it will be a difficult decision for Gregory.

"I think he will decide towards the end of next week which he will ride. Ectot is a very good horse and Avenir Certain is, too.

"I think he will ride them both before deciding.

"Avenir Certain won the Guineas and the Prix de Diane before Deauville. She is a very good-actioned filly and has plenty of speed, but is also very calm and a good ride.

"Ectot looked very good last week and it is hard for Gregory as it is the Arc.

"The ground would not be an issue for either."

Should Benoist opt to ride Avenir Certain, that would leave Ectot as a possible mount for Al Shaqab's retained rider Frankie Dettori.

Winner of the Grade One Secretariat Stakes at Arlington last month, Aidan O'Brien's son of Galileo will go into quarantine on Thursday week.

The three-year-old colt was well supported for the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot in June, losing little in defeat at the hands of impressive winner Eagle Top.

Connections of Adelaide believe the firmer ground in Melbourne will be to his liking.

James Bester, Australian racing manager for Coolmore, told Sky Sports Radio 1: "He probably should have won that race (Prix Niel), as impressive as the winner, Ectot, was.

"There was some temptation, given that was a major Arc trial and that prior Arc favourite Treve flopped in her trial, to consider the Arc de Triomphe for him.

Profiles Adelaide A P O'Brien
"That said, he's a horse that relishes really fast ground.

"In America, when he won his Grade One, it was really firm ground.

"It's all systems go for the Cox Plate. He goes into quarantine on the 25th (September) and he comes out of quarantine in Werribee on the morning of the Cox Plate.

"The firm ground that he is likely to encounter in Australia will suit him tremendously. As long as he gets through his quarantine OK, he has to have a serious chance in this race.

"This horse will thrive under Australian conditions."

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“Avenir Certain is more relaxed, having raced at the top level more, whereas Ectot is more strong and powerful and when Teletext came to us I was impressed by how he accelerated again,” Benoist said.


James Bester, Australian racing manager for Coolmore, told Sky Sports Radio 1: "He probably should have won that race (Prix Niel), as impressive as the winner, Ectot, was.



Maybe so. Maybe not

I think Benoist may choose Ectot over Avenir Certain when you consider their breeding and potential to see out the 12f thoroughly. It's not reasonable to expect him to make a decision the day after a trial, that is just silly, when you consider the race is 3 weeks away and one of them may get injured beforehand. It's like the situation when Johnny Murtagh was at Coolmore..he rarely said what he would be riding before the race until the last 48 hours, or unless one horse stood head and shoulders above the rest of them. It's also like Ruby Walsh over jumps when noone really knew what he would be riding from WPM's or PFN's yard until the last 48 hrs.

Agree with that entirly Sintonian.

Both posts even

grendel

Important element missing from that analysis is the condition that the comeback run was fast run, especially a PB i.e a hard race. Can you factor that in, perhaps? Also, leave out 2 year olds.

they were all wins Sandown so a fair few of them would be PB's and/or fast run - it's a theory that can't be proved either way as how do you conclude what makes a horse run badly with any degree of certainty... not saying Macdillon will win or lose today but I certainly wouldn't lay it expecting it to bounce unless I was sure similar scenarios heavily suggested a bad run was imminent

No. I'm not a layer especially, but its being backed, its got a good draw so no excuses except maybe the ground.

a classic symptom of a horse who has bounced is that it usually finishes 2nd by finishing uncharacteristically weak within 6 weeks of a very impressive run - Taghrooda being one in the Yorkshire Oaks imo

a classic symptom of a horse who has bounced is that it usually finishes 2nd by finishing uncharacteristically weak

a classic symptom of a horse who has bounced is that it usually finishes 2nd by finishing uncharacteristically weak


Not sure that is true grendel. Think that they can finish like that or running down the field.You may be right about Taghrooda as the KG was a harder race than it looked.

I think we can all agree that bounce is possible cause if horse runs some way  below a previous race & high/highest rating if running within a short time after a longish layoff.

Eagle Top finished for the year.

So, in summary, if/when Free Eagle's given the green light for Longchamp and if/when he doesn't bounce, he's going to smash the Arc field to pieces, yes?

That's rather good news imho.

Handicapping is a strange old game - part maths, part guesswork, part judgement.I've been looking at the RPR's for Sunday's Arc trials and wondering how the figures have been arrived at.

In the Prix Niel, Ectot was deemed to have run 2 lbs below his PB, Teletext +2 lb, Adelaide +2 lb, Elliptique +6 Guardini -1 and Gallante -16.Its very odd that Ectot was judged to have run 2 lbs below his PB. The TS given was 111 suggesting a reasonably strong race. Surely at minimum Ectot could be rated the same as his PB on 118 given that? I would go further and say that they could all be raised a further  2lb no problem.

By way of contrast, Free Eagle was judged to have improved 16 lb to 120 despite on their TS figure of 88, the race was not strongly run. Something not quite consistent there imo.

The Prix Foy was rated as though every horse bar Au Revoir ran below PB, which is more than a little odd.Especially as the race was more slowly run than the Prix Niel which was the 2nd fastest for the race since 1980, yet ROTW was rated 4 lbs higher than Ectot.

What rating shall we give? What rating would you like to have? Very curious indeed.