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Hello,brigust,a rotten price but understandable,one too keep on the right side,held up latest,different tactics, lack of pace could show it in lesser light,but milers in the race, just them french jockey tactics to worry about once again?
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You really are a twerp Brig. There is nothing hyped about Treve, a rich comment given your positions on Australia. At least Treve has been there are done it.
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Sin that comment is to not understand at all. It wasn't me hyping Australia. All I said was that IF AOB believed what he was saying about Australia he WOULD run in the 2000 Gns. Stop going over old ground and wrong at that. It makes you look a twerp.
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NOT would have won this french Derby?
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The usual crap ride on the jolly(Grince Gibraltar),held up into poor position,ran into further poor positions,(never at it),The guineas form looks red hot!
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The 10/1 on Australia is a big price if he can live up to his lofty status. I like most take the "best we've had" comments with a pinch of salt. We hear it every other year. He definitely comes from the best trial though and ran a fine race at Newmarket. My concern would be is that it is not a race they normally target. A red hot 5/4 derby favourite shouldn't be 10's for the Arc.
If we knew if he was to win the Derby then go King George then aimed at the Arc he would definitely be worth a punt. I'd imagine the Irish Derby followed by the Irish Champion would be his plan though. The Arc will be an after thought as always. I'm very interested to see the Aga's filly in 2 weeks time. She has looked exciting so far and will get all the allowances in the big one. I wouldn't give up on Prince of Gibraltar yet either. Thought he ran a fine race today from an impossible position after being stopped a couple of times. He will appreciate the extra distance too. He may well run in Ireland for their Derby or the Grand Prix de Paris next which will give us a chance to see him over 12f. |
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never a race to pay attention at this point of the season.
you always get a few who run way above what they are producing right now. at juicy prices on the day. |
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Tell me some then G1
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Considering AOB always runs his Derby horses in the Arc then it is a no-brainer. Ruler of the World was 7s behind Treve last year and really should have been third. I suggest Australia is some way in front of him. Plus CDA and RotW finished close together in the Champion Stakes and RotW is favourite to beat CDA in the Coronation Cup. I also think he will swerve the Irish Derby and St Leger and go for the Eclipse, Irish Champion Stakes and then the Arc. 10s is a nice price I think and I have availed myself of some more. If this really is the best AOB has had he will go very close.
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Which bookies are laying 10?
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Joe's and Lads.
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Billys, Sid and Baldfred too.
I agree, think 10's is a great price. |
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OK ta.
Can only see the appeal from a trading point of view tbh. Plenty to happen between now and then. |
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Isn't that only ever the appeal of antepost prices?!
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Not if you think they're going to win. I rarely back ante-post with the view to trade out.
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you always get a few who run way above what they are producing right now.
spotting improvers is one thing. guessing which ones may improve after a handfull of runs already is another....i mean i wish i could read the future lol |
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that was for SQ's response lol
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no, i was asking you to name some from previous Arcs G1.Didnt make that clear sorry
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oh lol
legerra califet danedream mubtaker (although that was down to punters stupidity) youmzain just a few off the top of me head |
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only 1 winner dandream
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A cracking performance by Taghrooda today at Epsom to win the Oaks in very impressive style. She is now a general 16/1 shot for the Arc.
Whether she will go that route is not certain as she moves like a horse who enjoys top of the ground. I would imagine she will go to Ireland and then take on the older fillies at York. She looks well above average and will receive all the allowances come October if she were to line up. Its an exciting few days with the Derby tomorrow and the Prix de Diane next Sunday where Shamkala and We Are do battle. We will soon know if this years classic generation is the way to go in this years Arc. |
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I'll be keeping Taghrooda on my side, for certain. 3yo fillies do well in this.
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Bookies not giving much away in the antepost market. Kingman 20/1 says it all what a joke.
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Have backed TGG at around 40 , so far , (currently 42 ) on basis he will stay , and if he goes well at York think he will surely run , KR wont be able to resist rubbing more mud in faces ,although if it is a wet autumn , after a decent York , then wud look at trading out as I think he would swerve the trip till next year , have backed him all year and just loved the French run .
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Just A Way wins but just.By no means certain to go for the race but it is being considered
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Apparently the best horse in the world. Another one. Only just beat a horses who hasn't won a Gr1 since 2011. The horse he beat in Meydan isn't great so it does make you think they will rate any fooking thing.
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Got agree with Brigust on this Japanese horse. Hasn't beaten much and the victories are on fast ground over shorter trips.
I think this years classic generation are looking up to scratch and that's where this years winner will come from. |
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Another one? Isn't that the way it works? At any one time there will always be a horse ranked best in the world, nobody has to agree with it. Brandy, unless the French have a late developer lurking the French colts look crap this year judging by their classics.
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That is exactly my point. It is an insult to intelligence. The horse may not even be the best horse in his own country. This is a new phenomenon rating the best horse in the world. Complete b ollo cks.
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Surely if horse racing is to be promoted as a global sport then this is a reasonable step? As I said nobody has to agree with the rankings.
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This is the way collateral form ratings work, in dubai Just A Way beats horses rated 117 in 2nd and 3rd by 6l, this coming 2 starts after beating Gentildonna 4l. He was bound to get a high rating and that's what happens when you believe horses run to form and results are taken at face value. Of course he may well be worthy of that rating and scraping home lto doesn't necessarily prove it wrong but you can never be sure with those dubai results though I was impressed watching at the time.
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agree with figgis, it is a global sport and quite rightly we should have a ranking of best horses and best performances and Just A Way's win in dubai could well be the best performance so far but he'll have to produce the performance again to be the best horse of 2014. It would be great to see him over here and I see he has an entry in the Irish Champion stakes.
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SG, are you going to be with Treve or against her at Royal Ascot?
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I've just looked at the prices now Figgis and she is quite short but I think she is different class to those, it's very hard for me to say until I see the final decs, the ground and prices. I wonder what kind of pace Hanagan will set on Mukhadram or will there be a pacemaker in the race for treve? I'm not ducking the question figgis as I really don't know until the day.
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No that's fair enough, at the price I'm looking to be against but as you say the race might look different nearer the day.
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looks like O'brien may have a pacemaker in for Magician, well if she's around the current price on the day I'll probably say I'll be with her. How about you?
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I don't see an obvious one I want to back but the race looks fairly deep at this stage and even though I don't go in for race standardisation I know the POW is usually by a horse of a similarly good standard. If Treve is to win Gp1s as a 4yo I make it that she'd need to improve from 3 to 4 by about 7 or 8lbs in real terms. On her latest run against CDA I have her as only improving 4lbs, that's not really going to be enough. Obviously it has to be considered that it was her first run and she may improve on that but she's priced up like it's expected and I wouldn't be too sure about that, so I intend to lay her.
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What about her chances for a repeat in the Arc figgis?
I suppose we have to question whether she has improved the 8lb the WFA says she should, I haven't got round to rating that run behind CDA and perhaps she wasn't at her best. Maybe the Ascot race is one to watch for me, see how she goes there first and then decide whether she can repeat a win in the arc. |
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*POW is usually won
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SG, I don't think I've ever had an Arc bet this far out, so much can change and some horses will have harder races than others.
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