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ARC 2014
ARC 2014
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Australia trading at 9/1 on here. Sea The Moon the strongest currently with plenty of cash looking to get on.
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Penzance, yes he apparently will head to the Prix Foy next. Just back into training.
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YUICHI FUKUNAGA, in Britain to compete on the Rest of the World team in the Shergar Cup, is relishing the opportunity to partner runaway Meydan winner Just A Way in the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, but concedes the distance of Europe's richest race is not ideal for the talented five-year-old.
Trained by Naosuke Sugai, Just A Way produced one of the best performances of the year when slamming Vercingetorix by six and a quarter lengths in the Dubai Duty Free in March under Fukunaga, who was suspended when the son of Heart's Cry captured another Grade 1 at Tokyo in June. The rider, the son of former champion jockey Yoichi Fukunaga, will be back on board at Longchamp in October, when Just A Way will bid to break Japan's duck in the Arc. He can be backed at 10-1, although Paddy Power go just 7-1, and Fukunaga said: "To win the Arc is a dream of Japanese people so I am very excited to ride in the race for the first time. Just A Way prefers fast ground. It's true it was soft ground last time, but as you could see in Dubai he prefers it quick. "The trip is not ideal and it will be the first time for the horse to run in a race of that distance, but rather than feeling nervous about it I'm more excited. His ideal distance is nine or ten furlongs. Just A Way's strength is at the finish, where he can quicken - he passes the line really strongly." |
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whats the story with The Grey Gatsby ? anychance he could turn up ?
The Grey Gatsby's first start in 2014 was over a mile in the Craven Stakes where he finished two lengths behind the then unbeaten Toormore. Both horses went on to compete in the first classic of that season the 2000 Guineas. The Grey Gatsby went off as a 66/1 outsider in the Newmarket classic and finished in 10th place behind the winner Night of Thunder. His next start was in the Dante Stakes, traditionally a trial for the Epsom Derby. Godolphin's colt True Story, who was entered for the Derby, started as odds-on favourite for the race on ground officially good to soft. The Grey Gatsby, ridden by Ryan Moore for the first time, drifted right in the final furlongs but still went onto win. A stewards enquiry was held but the result stood. Kevin Ryan shared plans to run the colt in the Prix du Jockey Club rather than the English Derby. The trainer later said he felt the colt "Didn't get the credit he deserved after the Dante Stakes" with his win overshadowed by the poor performance of True Story.[2] Ridden again by Ryan Moore the colt contested the Prix du Jockey Club at Chantilly in June. He was a relative outsider with French trained horse Prince of Gibraltar starting as favourite. Despite the horse sweating up badly and a poor start Moore was able to get the colt into the lead in the final furlongs and stay there to win by three lengths and in a record time. He was the first British-trained winner since 2005. A Dante and French Derby(10.4f) has to be respected ,has a decent kick to take him clear early in the straight further improvement needed but on decent ground could this horse be given any chance ? was impressed with the Chantilly run ,had to be switched lost place ,switched to get a run and was not stopping at the line . decent time as well ,this un a bit under the radar imo . |
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Sintonian,
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I think Shamkala is the only real potential horse for this race that the Aga Khan has this year? So that would mean Soumillon would be able to ride Sea The Moon on Arc day unless Shamkala does something extraordinary in one of the trials. Of course, the Aga could be a cantankerous git and make Soumillon ride Shamkala regardless.
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Coincidentally, I was coming here to post about Shamkala! Does anyone know her plan? I think 33s is a more than fair price if the Arc is where she's going. I see she has Champions Day entries a couple of weeks later.
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I've been throwing a few sheckles at Western Hymn at huge odds. Not at all sure he'll run, perhaps more likely to be aimed at the Champion Stakes, but he's a horse I like and think he'd be well suited to the race if it came up on the soft side. Indeed if it was soft maybe Gosden would rule out Taghrooda and Western Hymn might be the chosen one - of course he has Eagle Top as well.
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Joist, not sure what her plan is. On the face of it she was a little disappointing in the Prix Diane but her ability to handle soft ground well would give her a chance.
Uncle, very unusually for JG he has said he is not worried about Soft ground for Taghrooda. I say unusually because if there is a possible excuse to use before a race is run he will definitely mention it (for any horse). But the fact he says he is not worried about it when she has only won on Good or faster is interesting to say the least. Maybe she has worked on it at home or something, but the dam handled soft/heavy pretty well. Paul Hanagan has said on RUK he is not worried about potentially soft ground either. I found the interview quite a surprise because connections of such high profile horses can be protective and cautious when discussing the unknown factors about a race. I mean, there is no guarantee she will handle it, that's why I wondered if she's galloped on Soft. |
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Any reason for Sea The Moon drifting in the past few days, a few thousand got traded between 5.5 and 5.6 now 7.0 for £65.
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I believe Lucky Lion is out of the Prix Guillaume d'Ornano, so his intended target now appears to be the Grosser Preis von Baden (likely followed by the Champion Stakes). Furthermore Sirius, another three year old winner of the open aged Gr. 1 Grosser Preis of Berlin last weekend is an intended runner now. So the opposition for STM got a lot tougher. Now defeat in the prep has at least become an option.
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Yeah i see Racebets have gone 1/2 sea the moon for the baden baden race, 3/1 sirius 4/1 bar with lucky lion. Should be a shoe in for STM.
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Whatever the outcome of the race, you have to remember it is just a prep race, 4 weeks before the Arc itself. Danedream only scrambled home when she won it prior which probably contributed to her 25/1 SP.
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We all know the bookmakers and markets won´t see it that way. If STM gets beat at Baden Baden he´s double digits on Arc day, especially when all the French and Japanese money comes in.
Btw Danedream won Berlin by five lengths and Baden-Baden by six lengths in her Arc year. She was 25-1, cause people doubted the credibility of her victories. It was in 2012 after her KG victory that she scrambled home. |
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Very good point ElT I can see STM being a lot bigger on the pari-mutuel. The German form is never fashionable.
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not be that big if soumillon on board...they love im....
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Prince Gibraltar was disappointing today. I cannot see him winning an Arc now, although stranger things have certainly happened. Western Hymn was a place behind so can safely rule him out.
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Shamkala runs in a Group 2 over 1m4f in Deauville tomorrow. It's very interesting to see how she goes as before her last run she looked top class.
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What is the reason for Australia's price? Seems big for a horse with the dream pedigree, proven stamina and has that bit of class/speed people say you need in these big 12f G1's (3rd in Guineas).
It's not as if O'Brien doesn't run his best here. I know the horse might well worn out by the day of the race if he runs at York and Leopardstown but he's probably the best O'Brien has had in a while. Odds would suggest he isn't being aimed at the Arc though which would amaze me if true. |
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Aiden's 3yos have a dismal record in the Arc.
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They do but there looks to be more of an end product with Australia. Looking back at his recent 3 year old runners, Ruler of the World never justified his Derby win either before or after, probably an element of a fluke, Camelot had injury problems and benefited from a weak group of 3yo's at the time and the likes of Treasure Beach, Fame and Glory and Leading Light never looked like Arc winners to me (stayers) and Cape Blanco was the opposite he was short on stamina. A fair few were probably overrated for one reason or another....I would say Australia is every bit as good as his connections claim.
Australia's odds look 3 or 4 points (Lad brokes) too big for me, an O'Brien/Coolmore dual Derby winner, third in the Guineas, impeccable pedigree. The odds are nearly hinting that he won' t run. I'm not saying he'll win - he'd have serious question marks around the ground and a long season - but am I wondering if he'll even run. APOB's next best in the betting is Ruler of the World who would struggle to be competitive in this year's renewal. |
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I think you've answered your own question there, SYT.
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Sintonian are you saying he will or won't run? And if it's a won't is this the first time in around 20 years, O'Brien hasn't ran his best chance in the Arc?
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I am saying you have explained why his odds are big. That was the question you asked.
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The odds are nearly hinting that he won' t run.
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Sea The Moon back into 5.3 now
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O'Brien doesn't have a very good record in this full stop! It's ok scaring off the opposition in the Irish Derby but the Arc is a different kettle of fish. I'd be very surprised if Australia lines up and even more so if he wins. He is a good horse no doubt but it's likely 10f will be his trip and by the time of the Arc he will have a hard long season.
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He may send his top horse to the race but doesn't target the race with them. Hence his poor record and price of said animal.
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Why are his odds so big Sintonian? Is that you think he isn't a runner?
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My personal opinion is that he'll go York, Leopardstown and then to Ascot. I think he'll only go to the Arc if he misses one of the first two races and the going is Good in France. But that's just my guess at their plan. I guess AOB will let people know more after York. But on top of that, if one was to consider backing him for the Arc itself, it would have to be a day of the race bet for me before considering, as AOB simply does not train his best 3yos for it. He has always targetted them at the Derby first and then then 10f Group 1 races. The Arc is always last on the agenda, hence his poor record in the race.
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Just read in a german forum that Sea The Stars may miss the Grosse Preis von Baden. There are also rumors he might miss The Arc.
The owner said they had to check him and he will be back in training next couple of days and the Start in Baden will depend on the ground. So there definetly was/is some concern with the horse. |
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can you provide link betman?
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Think it might pay to follow some top races in Ireland within the new few weeks.
Been examining some implied odds where some possible supplementaries may come from existing antepost markets, and im struggling to see anything from the uk , france, or germany , with regards to value seeking. Beginning to think this years race is a non starter |
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http://www.galopponline.de/service/news/news.php?PHPSESSID=3ce1f24e59bad63771718e3edd0c1628&id=29552
http://galopperforum.de/viewtopic.php?f=72&t=4446&sid=d0d9327a60a906f6061dfcfa44ecbf3c&start=300 |
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what did everyone think of The Grey Gatsby today ?
underestimated again and i thought he ran another cracker ,could not believe the price it went off and the his form looks solid . hope connections give it a go ,seems like he would benefit from 12f and some cut might well suit , deserves a chance . |
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I was looking at APOB's post race comments the gist of which is Australia is not a horse who needs a mile and a half. As the odds would hint, it looks like they are looking away from the Arc. Which begs the question where will he run after the Irish Champion if it's not the Arc. Obviously it has to be the English Champion (not a race Aidan usually runs his best in although recently I think I've noticed him taking it more seriously since the whole Qipco series thing) or else it's the USA, which would mean the Classic, can't see him being taken him over for the Mile or the Turf. I still think though the Arc is the race for him and I think the closer it gets connections will have a rethink.
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What if the ground is soft - good to soft at the arc
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I am confident Australia will run in the Arc, ( weather permitting) Take the hint, when Obrien says the horse does not need a mile and half, he is stating the obvious. This horse has everything needed to win in Paris. Having won 2 Derby's and the Judmonte as a warm up. The going at Longchamp on Arc weekend is always exaggerated on the soft side. Remember Danedream broke the course record on going officially described as good. As long as weather plays fair I expect to see Australia line up for the Arc, and probably be less than half the odds available at present.
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Hard to ignore Laddies stand out price though isn't it? They are never normally far away with this stable.
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I've liked Harp Star for a while. I didn't back her at the big prices because i thought they were too big if you know what i mean. Very little, or anything, has been made of her on forums. 12/1 taken.
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