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Will be surprised if Lord Windermere wins this. Culloty swerved Down Royal earlier in the month because the ground was yielding, with good ground likely tomorrow, it can't suit him? Jumping and staying the distance aren't certain either.
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wtf did I say?
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Terminal ,he is overpriced at a general 50/1.
Any drying of the ground should help his cause. |
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Think Lord windermere will stay for sure , in fact he improved for the step up in trip when winning the RSA over 25 furlongs in March , his pedigree is packed with stamina , don't know about the suitability of the ground but the three miles two plus distance is a big plus imo
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Hadrians Approach must have a huge engine as his jumping has been dire. Must go very close if jumping well, but I just cant see it.
Having said that I'm siding with another who's jumping badly let him down last season,Houblon Des Obeaux. Jumped well enough at Ascot on his reappearance and a repeat of that should hopefully see him in the mix. Closely matched with Rocky Creek but double the odds.Slightly worrying that Aidan Coleman has chosen Katenko If anyone's interested my mates own Baile Anrai running in the Rehearsal at Newcastle tomorrow. Got blinkers on for the first time and Skelton has said his absolutely flying at home and expecting him to run a big race |
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I'm certainly interested Giddy I backed his winner yesterday and I have just looked at him on here and there is a lot of money for him. Possible Pricewise
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He picked up a leg injury while with Ian Williams and it wasn't noticed by the stable. He ran twice more with the Injury,hence the poor showings
They took him off Williams and put him with Skelton Harry has ridden him in most of his races and he's saying that he has never been better. The boy's who own him know Jack about racing but they do lump on if they thing his going to run a big one Just passing on what I'v heard Steamship. Good luck mate |
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After Denman's two Hennessy wins, Paul knows all about landing the big prize at Newbury and, in Saturday's runner Rocky Creek, he sees many similarities to that great chaser...
I have been lucky enough to land the Hennessy three times as a trainer and twice as a jockey, and my runner this year, Rocky Creek, is not unlike my dual winner Denman in appearance. He is nearly the size of that bruiser, and as big as a tank. In fact, let's hope that we will be calling Rocky Creek the "New Tank" just after 3pm on Saturday afternoon. And I think that he has everything you look for in a Hennessy horse. The only negative is that I wish the ground was slower. I have heard some question his lack of experience in big fields, but that is often the case with second-season chasers, as so many of the novice chases cut up. He fits into the right rating category for the race these days - and I would hope that by the end of the season he is rated higher than his current mark of 151 - is a second-season chaser with more than a touch of class, who gallops, and jumps well in the main. And he is fit enough, having had two racecourse gallops. And they were fair pieces of work, too, with pretty decent hurdlers. Okay, I'll tell you their names. He did separate pieces of racecourse work over 2m with Celestial Halo and Black River, and I liked what I saw. I don't think that he will be beaten for lack of fitness. I have done as much as I possibly can have with him, bar a run. Draw a line through his Aintree run - the ground was too quick, and so many disappoint there after a long season that I am not losing much sleep over it - and Rocky Creek has a lot going for him. The way he progressed up until then, winning the Reynoldstown, always had me thinking of this race and he has obviously had this as a long-term target. He has done plenty of work, has schooled at least once a week for the last two months - in the indoor school and on grass - and comes here primed to run a big race. I am confident that he will run his race - he wouldn't in the line-up if I wasn't - but whether that will be good enough we will see. I hope and pray it is good enough because I would like nothing better than to win this race for the David Johnson and Andy Stewart families, for obvious reasons. There is no end of serious rivals, but if I had to pick one horse out among the opposition it would be Our Father. I am sure that David Pipe will have him fit and firing for this race for similar reasons to me - it's a massive prize and the horse is also part-owned by the family of the late David Johnson - and first time up is the time to catch him. It wouldn't surprise me in the least were he to prove a very well-handicapped horse off 147. In many ways, if Rocky Creek doesn't win the Hennessy, then I hope the Pipe yard, with their long association with David, will be leading the winner in tomorrow afternoon. |
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Thanks Giddy I wish I could give you the winner of the Hennessey but I don't have a clue. Ive backed Cape Tribulation and Opening Batsman because I follow those stables ut as for the winner I'm stuck.
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Looks like Shockster's already stolen my thunder but I think Terminal is capable of providing a surprise at 50/1 - he was travelling well in the RSA Chase until a 'stopper' about 6f from home looked to put him out of it, yet he recovered and ran on quite strongly - another 2f and he could well have won it...even allowing for Boston Bob's blunder at the last.
I know it wasn't a vintage renewal of that race but he could be well treated off 144. |
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At the weights, the horse to take out of the RSA is Hadrian's Approach. With Nico's claim he is basically running off 141, the lad schools him everyday and the cheekpieces should sharpen his jumping up which apart from one mistake last time looked much better, he must go close! I also agree about terminal, 50/1 is an insult and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him bang in with a chance 2 out.
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People backing terminal should realise their balance situation will be in terminal decline.
There is a piece of form to suggest even if he turns up on its best form it will not win. Hope you find that before you lose all your cash. |
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is weighted to run as well as lord windermere
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Tizzards are a canny old lot,although it looks a doubtful stayer to me,they are quit bullish about Theatre Guide,gonna chuck a bit on him at big odds.
Think terminal is overpriced,possible dark horse. |
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such a wide open race budd, reminds me of the carruthers race, no real top class 2nd season novices who could win a gold cup and plenty of the old guard in the mix.
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yes mate,its a real good Fascinating race with so many that could win. A profit in this one would be a bonus alright.
Think I would be happy with a run for my money and a bit of excitement,and probably close my eyes every time Hadrians Approach jumps!! He is really well in though. |
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The 2 horses best in on my figures are Highland Lodge and Hadrian's Approach and I've had a few quid on the both. GL all
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That's a pretty bullish from PFN. Stable flying. Let's hope he is right. Loch Ba to snatch 4th
![]() What a day in prospect, good luck all. |
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finally got off the fence and gone for
Lord Windermere 10/1 ew with ew saver on Opening Batsman at 50/1. Good luck! |
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I'm going to have a bit on Katenko at 20s
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cracking race, wd winners.
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Well done winners , back to soft ground handicaps for Lord windermere ,smart operator Mr henderson , Rocky ran a great race as well , probably would have got there on soft ground , but who knows
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loads were still travelling turning in weren't they, invictus came there full of running but got tired, highland lodge ran well enough but couldn't shake them off on that ground....very good winner though, could even afford to bungle the last.
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Hadrian's Approach jumping let him down again, considering he'd beat Theatre Guide 9l lto then you'd have to think he could have gone close but you cant be sure. Lord Windemere did get quite badly hampered but was well enough beaten in the end. First 2 home look about 160 horses.
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glad I had a saver on triolo! at least hadrians will have another day to come good
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H Lodge surprised me keeping on for 4th, took my eye off of him when they got him and assumed he'd have dropped right out of it, hopefully the welsh national and heavy ground next.
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Trends analysis:
Rocky Creek 90% 2nd Lord Windermere 89% Invictus 77% Backed to win only. ![]() |
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Cracking shout at 70's Shockster. Someone else put him up too but I can't remember who. Nice one.
Rocky Creek ... think he may have won if the ground was softer tbh but nevertheless he ran a great race. Can he do a What A Friend and follow up with a win in the Lexus? Nothing of Denmans calibre in the race this year though. Highland Lodge ran a good race for 4th but was beaten 13 lengths in the end and was receiving weight from the 3 horse in front of him. I know he prefers Softer ground but I can't have him for the Welsh National personally after two big efforts already this season. |
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Just a word for Theatre Guide, yet another improvement by the Tizzards and great to see Hey Big Spender winning again at Newcastle. He wasn't far behind the first 2 and clear of the rest.
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Well done winners, Shockster you were right about the Ascot but the wrong house for me
Can't believe how the bookies were slashing prices!Some of the SP's were stupid. |
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well done anyone who backed him.
No gold cup threats from that race tho. |
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Well done winners.
I had a big bet on Kantenko, still feel it would had been in the first 2. Still i backed TD at 70 & 29 AP, sure i posted it earlier. Amazingly fast ground at newbury. |
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Prob dun Katenko good..............(you cant take the P out of a fence)...............I had a bit.................trust hes Ok.................a horse for the future.............were "handcuffed" now Ib
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I have backed him for the KG & GC, like i did last season.
My problem is i spend my whole season looking for a overpriced GC winner. ![]() But then again i backed Exotic Dancer at 750 & 1000 for those 2 races in the past. |
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well done winners!
weights came out Nov 13 and just had a look at pricing tables in PW column on Nov 14 before I throw it out (sad I know!) - 47 runners in the tables vs 21 starters on the day - price comparison as follows Invictus Best Price Nov 14 8/1 SP 8/1 Rocky Creek 10/1, 8/1 Hadrian's Approach 12/1, 12/1 Our Father 12/1, 11/2 Lord Windermere 12/1, 7/1 Katenko 14/1, 20/1 Highland Lodge 14/1, 6/1 Imperial Commander 16/1, 20/1 Houblon Des Obeaux 16/1, 25/1 Triolo D'Alene 20/1, 20/1 Prince De Beauchene 20/1, 16/1 Super Duty 20/1, 14/1 Merry King 20/1 12/1 (PW selection) Cape Tribulation 25/1, 50/1 Cloudy Too 25/1, 20/1 Opening Batsman 25/1, 25/1 Theatre Guide 33/1, 33/1 Terminal 33/1,33/1 Loch Ba 50/1, 16/1 Whodoyouthink 50/1, 100/1 Note also these are best ante-post prices and there were opportunities to back most if not all of the runners at bigger prices than SP yesterday morning (I backed Lord Windermere at 10s and Opening Batsman at 50s, not my finest hour!) plus at least two firms went 5 places each way and a couple more had free bet/money back offers for second place finisher. I appreciate there would have been an opportunity to back your horse earlier than Nov 14 (but before knowing the weights) and some may have got nice prices about their fancy on here (liquidity?) but would seriously question the value in the antepost market for this race? |
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^ missed out Same Difference 20/1, 33/1
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Thanks for that ReaseHeath. A lot of the fun has gone out of ante-post betting due to rubbish odds that no longer take account of risks that apply to betting in advance of a race eg. injury, ground conditions, trainer form. I'm not sure why people bother and perhaps they don't much apart from a few quid here and there. You'ld need to look at liquidity to determine that though.
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Cracking race yest
![]() Great effort from my ew hope Rocky Creek & a gd hcap ch on soft ground awaits him, be interesting to see if he lines-up for the Welsh Nat? Winner looks a smart young improving staying ch also & likes that gd/ish ground. The A King horse travelled like a gd horse for most of the race only to run out of gas after 2 out, very gd 1st run back after time off, looks to be on a very gd mark providing he goes on from this run. Wd winners nice price considering it was the stable jocks pick. |
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just back in Yorkshire after a cracking weekend at Newbury. Nice to have the winner and I would recommend this meeting to anyone should you get the chance. Have also backed Triolo at big prices for the National but think the hcp mark is now likely to be blown, however may still get a nice weight if Long Run goes for it.
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Wouldn`t count the first two out of the Gold Cup just yet.
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