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HENNESSY GOLD CUP
HENNESSY GOLD CUP
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He's looked potential top quality in a couple of his races, Mary. But tbh I have only backed him due to his paper profile and the trainers modus operandi. It's hard to say how well handicapped he is. Backers are betting on him improving/trends. Stable in fine form though.
My other bet in the race is Loch Ba at 40/1. He has bottom weight, had a run recently, stable in-form as their Sgt Reckless turned over West Wizard on Monday, and the horse has won at the track. |
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Rocky Creek at least has some decent form with the likes of Houblon Des Obeaux and Harry Topper.
It's Our Father's price I can't get my head around, seems to be purely on the basis that he 'goes well fresh' - the chase he won looks a pretty weak race in hindsight and they finished strung out like washing (though it was a likeable performance). Anyway, I think it's going to be Opening Batsman and Invictus for me. |
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if you look at the history of the Reynaldstown Chase at Ascot, it often supplies horses that go close in the Hennessy
Burton Port won the Reynaldstown before running second to Diamond Harry off 158 Air Force One was second off 153 Rocky Creek gets in here off 151 which makes me think he is really well handicapped. When you combine that with the trainers record, his age, number of runs, wins in Graded chase and many other useful pointers, not least the trainer nominating this race and deliberately missing the Cheltenham Festival then it's easy to see why punters have latched on to him |
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I'm on 3 at Ante Post and like the chances of them all as they are all 6 and hopefully still improving. Merry King and Triolo D'Alene I'm happy with but I am coming round more to the idea of TERMINAL. Yes his last couple of runs look average but he is unbeaten on GOOD ground and only beaten on GS once when behind Lord Windermere in the RSA. He was 10L behind after making a bad mistake 4 out and stayed on again. Saturday he is 10lb better off and 2lb better off with Hadrians Approach for the 2L he was behind him. The ground looks likely to be either Good or Good/Soft and he looks overpriced.
Does anybody know who the jockey will be? Wouldn't mind a good claimer! |
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I'm on 2 ante post Merry King ew at 20's and Lord Windermere at 12's. Not overly confident as I think it's a very open renewal this year. Rocky Creek is respected but if he wasn't trained by P.Nicholls he would be a far far bigger price and strictly on his Aintree run is that well handicapped. Our Father is obviously a first time out beast but not sure any of his form amounts to much? Invictus beat Bob's Worth and Silviacno Conti but I'm pretty sure both ran well below par as Alfie Spinner seperated the 2 of them and he has proved to be no world beater. I'm starting to think Prince De Beauchene could be a big player as he has always been well regarded.
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sintonian
28 Nov 13 18:10 Joined: 21 Sep 04 | Topic/replies: 22,200 | Blogger: sintonian's blog Apologies, though 3 is far from ideal. I kind of see it as a positive. The lightly raced, second season, progressive types tend to thrive, perhaps because they've never given the handicapper the oportunity to catch up with them. |
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I agree with ReaseHeath about Our Father being too short, not saying it can't win but don't see what it has achieved to be that short in the betting.
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tricky balancing act between experience and not showing your hand to the handicapper Joci. I'd prefer a bit more exp myself for a race like this, it's like a mini-national.
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I'd much rather back a lightly raced chaser whose true handicap mark could be hidden from the handicapper. This race quite often goes to a young, improving sort.
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Sint you surprise me
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Slowerthanjohn - Invictus beat Bob's Worth and Silviacno Conti but I'm pretty sure both ran well below par as Alfie Spinner seperated the 2 of them and he has proved to be no world beater.
Very good point though Alfie Spinner was first past the post in the Hennessy last season - minus jockey Mark Quinlan! I was on Highland Lodge at 25's immediately after Standing Ovation won the Badger Ales but any confidence has evaporated with every bit of moisture that has left the ground. cant see it troubling the classier horses. Surprised to see Super Duty running after all the negative comments about running in the race at the start of the season from Donlad McCain. Maybe he was expecting a bog? |
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I really liked highland lodge too, wouldn't be at all surprised to see him withdrawn now and kept back for the welsh national.
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Lord Windemere has been placed in all of his last six runs culminating in a win in the top Novice chase at Cheltenham , those six runs came within just a four month period , he has had a fair rest now so it is difficult to see past him if fully fit , for a saver I will go for Hadrians Wall , he will be that bit more mature than when he ran against Lord Windemere in March and is nearly a stone better off when the claimer allowance is added in , he has had a run and may be better on a Flat Track , plenty more of interest but can't back em all gl
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maybe so, but he nominated the Hennessy early
just pointing out SOME of the reasons the horse is fancied 151 is low, when you consider he beat Houblon des Obeaux at levels, yet gets 3lb in this race |
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Not sure but i think i will take back what i said above as i have just found an article from Nichols on here from back in January. It goes into detail about his possible handicap mark taking into account the point to point it ran in etc and
But I view Rocky Creek as very much a horse for next season, and I am already looking forward to the Hennessy with him. So I wouldn't mind missing Cheltenham with him, like we did with Silviniaco Conti last year, and going to Aintree. But obviously nothing will be decided until I sit down with Andy Stewart and David Johnson, though I think a race such as the Reynoldstown at Ascot could be an option for his next start. Wherever he goes next, and whatever he does this season though, he is a proper horse for the future. |
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http://puntersclub.mirror.co.uk/horse-racing-forum/upcoming-big-races/hennessy-gold-cup-trends-2013-1384728143
Not a bad source for trends |
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that's exactly what I remember reading and the horse has been laid out
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I meant Hadrians Approach* Hadrians Wall a non runner
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Brandy, we are splitting hairs with horses that have had between 3-4 chase starts and 5-6. I've not said I prefer an exposed handicapper, just a horse with more than 3 chases so they have the right blend of experience but at the same time not being overly exposed. 5-6 chase runs is what I tend to look for in this race but that's just me. None of the horses at the head of the market you would call exposed.
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Robbie McNamara broke his collar bone this mornin - Douggie Costello will ride Lord Windermere
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Ive had to back IMPERIAL COMMANDER off 153............Its won before after nearly a year off.................did nothing wrong in Jan off 164.......& the booking of Paddy makes it a serious assault
G.L. all |
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Rocky Creek now has to taken seriously after Paul Nicholls sent out 4 winners in 24 hours, 3 of them staying chasers. If they have all been trained as a group for this meeting, there could be a few more to come.
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mange the race in January was not a handicap and he was beaten receiving 6lbs by the then 151 rated Cape Tribulation. At the weights he shouldn't beat CT and he is available at almost three times the price of IC on here.
I hope they both run blinders but I think both will need slower ground to win this. GL all the same. |
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Nicholls said yesterday that Rocky Creek is also the latest occupant of the box which used to be home for Kauto Star!
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Never hidden his affection for the horse! Surprised it isnt clear fav myself. The drying ground probably the only thing not in his favour.
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Imperial Commander's run against Cape Tribulation looked OK but the form didn't amount to much afterwards. This race usually goes to young improvers nowadays not has-beens dropping down the handicap.
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Wilde Blue Yonder snaps a 28 runner losing streak for Alan King just as I was fretting about the Invictus' stable form.
Impossible game, this! |
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Fair game Sint.
Thought you was implying you prefer seasoned handicappers. |
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carruthers,
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Rease the fact that RC is in Kautos box may say more about PFNs horses than it does about RC but he could eventually be a world beater I suppose. Certainly it would appear that he has been well minded and no better race to mind him for. His horses appear to be on fire also of course.
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Took a little bit of the ante-p about Rocky Creek some wks ago for this (12s ew).
Would have preferred the ground a bit more on the soft side for him but he looks sure to be in the mix granted a gd clear round (still looks a solid ew at 8s yet imo) Gd luck 2moro all  |
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Arkle, yes I appreciate that - he was n't making a big deal about it - Just A Par is next door in Denman's old box.Problem for Nicholls is that the benchmark is so high and the media invite the comparisons. On the other hand, the benchmark should help him assess the potential of his new generation chasers more accurately than emerging trainers who have not had the same quality previously.
I quite admire the way Nicholls has handled himself since Kauto and Denman retired - quietly gone about the business of trying to replace them without putting too much pressure on himself or the horses, unlikely to be any like-for-like replacements - more a case of having a number of contenders until one establishes himself as a top notch staying chaser. I won't be backing Rocky Creek because the ground might be a bit too quick and he's short enough now, would n't be surprised if he won though. |
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Is it just me who doesn't get the gamble on Loch Ba? Noway near the quality to win a Hennessy. Class 3 handicapper at best...
Super Duty and Rocky Creek are my 2 against the field. I love Houblon Des Obeaux but unfortunately he's too high in the weights after his win at Ascot. I also think that with the way he jumps and the amount of stamina he has that he's a future national winner. That's for another thread though, can still see him plugging on in an attritional race like this to get a place. |
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no, not just you
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like the rsa winner lord windermere off a mark of 154 here, has a progressive profile and placed in grade 1 and 2s novices chases over shorter he seemed to relish the step up in distance in the rsa and the likely strong pace in the henessey should be ground could be softer but won on gd to soft at the ,trainer has had the race in mind since last season and he is lightly raced over fences having had 6 runs and never out of the 1st 3 and open to more improvement this season .
merry king looks on an upward curve and could be best of the lower weighted runners and appeals each way . selection ., lord windermere 1pt win ,merry king 1 pt each way |
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Far too hard for the likes of me. I've had a little bit EW on Invictus and Merry King but it won't change my lifestyle if they lose!
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With you there FF,im on Hadrians Approach fwiw. No life changing here either,but if he wins I wont say no to some Cheltenham money.
Reckon hes the winner if he jumps ok, problem is he often don't!! |
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No strong feelings but will have a shilling e-w on Hadrian`s Approach and Loch Ba(didn`t take the 42 when the market was at 109%
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Judorick knows best as usual
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