Horse Antepost
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Royal Lodge,Dewhurst & RPT...?
Royal Lodge,Dewhurst & RPT...?
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Yes, Tapestry is the one I'd take from the Moyglare field, for me she was slightly below her Debutante form, where I have her 2lbs higher. I rate her equal to Rizeena on 7f form. I think Rizeena should get the mile but I'd be more hopeful of Tapestry training on, mainly because she's had an easier 2yo season, but you never know. I still haven't seen a filly quite up to the usual standard I look for, apart from Lucky Kristale and Vorda but those two have stamina doubts.
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interesting watching the clip of Sea The Stars scrambling home by less than a length from three horses in the Beresford who were no more than Grp 3 types.
A reminder of what can happen from 2 to 3, so wouldn't give up on Berkshire yet. |
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I thought the lack of pace was an excuse for STS that day, although I certainly had no idea he'd prove to be as good as he was.
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i taught the same when i saw the clip , but there was some difference from sea the stars physically in that clip and the sea the stars that went on a group 1 rampage .People often go on about what a specimen sea the stars was to look at as a three year old .and he looked like a long skinny weak horse in that clip , and as a three year his hindquarters where massive and extremely powerful .berkshire is a big good looking horse and if he fills out rather than grow's bigger he could still be a big player in all classic i think
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1 811 Anjaal93 2 9-1 Richard Hannon61 100 98 119
2 21 Be Ready29 2 9-1 Saeed bin Suroor Silvestre De Sousa — 96 118 3 412432 Cable Bay16 2 9-1 Charles Hills50 — 110 120 4 21 Craftsman24 2 9-1 A P O´Brien73 — 86 101 5 221144 Friendship27 2 9-1 A P O´Brien73 — 99 114 6 13 Giovanni Boldini27 2 9-1 A P O´Brien73 — 101 124 7 11 Great White Eagle41 2 9-1 A P O´Brien73 — 111 120 8 21 Michaelmas159 2 9-1 A P O´Brien73 — 77 96 9 61221 Oklahoma City7 2 9-1 A P O´Brien73 — 104 119 10 121 Outstrip28 2 9-1 Charlie Appleby Mickael Barzalona — 100 127 11 4213 Stormardal16 2 9-1 Ismail Mohammed100 — 94 101 12 531112 Sudirman27 2 9-1 David Wachman80 — 117 127 13 1131 War Command49 2 9-1 A P O´Brien73 — 113 130 14 210124 Wilshire Boulevard6 2 9-1 A P O´Brien73 — 108 123 Godolphins 2 supplemented this morning |
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Cheers, BJG. Ratings wise I have Sudirman narrowly top rated, but that was over 6f and he disappointed last time over 7f, possibly already peaked for the season? I have Be Ready only 1lb behind and he'd be my pick, however, he's still a few pounds short of winning a decent Dewhurst, so I wouldn't be taking too short a price as there are usually one or two in this race that make more than expected improvement. I don't know if Great White Eagle will be going here or the Middle Park, I think he's been overrated so far on what he's shown on the track but I get the impression he's probably capable of better. I have War Command 3lbs behind Be Ready, he's obviously open to more improvement but if he's a short price as expected then I'll probably be playing the race by laying him.
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bring it on Figgis
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Are you on him for the Guineas, ped?
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yes Figgis, moment of truth Saturday.
Surely small field, 5 or 6, if O'Brien withdraws his also rans? |
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Yeah possibly, if it cuts up a lot I might just end up backing Be Ready, have to see.
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on your own ratings, how you would price up the remaining 6-7 horse race if O'Brien withdraws his other 7 entries outside War Command?
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How do you mean? Personally I'd have Be Ready as favourite, but if I was pricing up as a layer I'd keep War Command fav as he's bound to take most cash, albeit I'd be going a bigger price than the mainstream. Or do you mean on ratings alone? After the main contenders I wouldn't have particular prices for the rest in mind as I think it can be misleading in these kind of races, I'd just lump them together. For instance I wouldn't have expected Leitir Mor to get as close as he did to Dawn Approach last year, although I didn't have him as far behind some of the others as the betting suggested.
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yes forget how you think the market or anyone else would bet, how would price up say the top 3 or 4 on your own figures
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Ped, well I wouldn't price it up purely on the figures, as I don't particularly fancy Sudirman despite him being top. It would be something like - Be Ready 2/1, War Command 11/4, Sudirman 6/1, Outstrip 7/1. You?
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War Command 4/5, Outstrip 4/1, Be Ready 7/1, Sudirman 12/1, 20/1+ the three non-O'Brien rags
Hopefully O'Brien run at least one other as a pacemaker and a good gallop |
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I would guess that Sudirman would go for the Middle Park.
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Wow, you really do fancy him. Do you believe he's already run to an average Dewhurst winning mark, or are you banking on improvement, or do you just think he's good enough in a below average Dewhurst?
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I can't have Outstrip ahead of Be Ready or even close on what he's shown so far, he could be still improving, however, as his latest race was a bit muddling.
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Pretty sure Outstrip will finish in front of Be Ready.The clock never lies.
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Feltfair, I think yours must need a new battery
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Do you remember the long discussion we had about the Coventry, Figgis, still have War Command as the outstanding 2yo figure of the season..... and as good as any 2yo have rated in last 4-5 years including 1lb in front of Frankel's Dewhurst win.
Think he was well undercooked in the Phoenix (which I think O'Brien conceded afterwards, though some would argue "he would say that, wouldn't he") and we saw a conclusive and comfortable win in the Futurity, though I remember you suggesting he was all out? Guess we just have differing views of the horse, Figgis. So yes, if War Command has made normal physical progress through the season, I expect him to wipe the floor with this opposition on what they have achieved on the clock to date, though the Godolphin pair both won easily last time and well on the upgrade, don't know the limit of their ability yet. |
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Ped, I'm really surprised you have it higher than Frankel's Dewhurst figure. Although Frankel's Dewhurst figure wasn't out on its own it was still very good. I wouldn't say he was all out in the Futurity, but to my eyes he didn't have another gear in reserve. He could well improve, though, I didn't rate Dawn Approach quite as highly until his National Stakes win. I don't know how good this Dewhurst will turn out to be. I think Be Ready sets the standard but he's not shown anything outstanding as yet, if he doesn't improve himself he's certainly beatable by an improver.
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That Pedrobob knows a thing or two. I`m with him apart from his choice in jockeys.
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 Feltfair, just wait until frankie lets you down the next time.....Figgis, my rating for War Command includes a healthy WFA adjustment being earned in June, so Frankel's raw speed figure (as you work) would have been faster |
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Oh right. Like you said, hopefully we'll get a truly run race.
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utterly ridiculous that Coolmore have 8 of the 14 entries
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pedrobob
29 Sep 13 13:48 Joined: 27 Mar 06 | Topic/replies: 5,298 | Blogger: pedrobob's blog would agree with that view, Figgis, and that we learnt nothing knew from the fillies either. Disappointing no show from Kiyoshi given ran straight this time, don't know what to think of her now except would still be surprised if she lasted the mile next May. Still not sure about Rizeena lasting the mile either. One thing for sure, Tapestry will enjoy it much more than that pair. Swardean suggested on another thread may have been a problem with Berkshire to miss the Champagne couple of weeks ago, so maybe he didn't have a clean prep and can be rated higher yesterday given was fresh early as well? Unless there was something else in the press I am not sure where he got that from? Trainer said he pulled him out because of the rain around and didn't want to run him on a ''churned up'' track. |
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fancy laying me £100 on that 7/1 Be Ready, Pedro?
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that's what I think his chances are in a 100% book, sint, so obviously wouldn't lay that.
Not a layer normally, but if think a horse is a 7/1 chance and is priced up at 2 or 3/1, then obviously have to consider it..... or the value that lies in backing overpriced horses in rest of the market What sort of odds would you price Be Ready at? |
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He'll be second fav behind War Command, around 7/2 or less imo. Godolphin paid £30k each to supplement him and Outsrip.
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If both the Godolphin horses run which seems almost certain given that they have been supplemented then Outstrip will be shorter than Be Ready.
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^ But if the market thinks Outstrip is a more likely Dewhurst winner than Be Ready (or even if they were joint 2nd favs behind War Command) then why is he nearly 3 times the price on here for the 2,000 Guneas (45/1 Outstrip, 16/1 Be Ready).
 Hope he wins both is all I can say. |
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Anjaal could come and spoil the party in the Dewhurst
but I see Great White Eagle as well clear in the Middle Park |
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on balance, Be Ready looks the likely winner of the Dewhurst
between him and War Command |
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Looks like there could be plenty of rain Friday into Saturday so could well be soft.
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where did you see that forecast? not what I've seen, temperatures dropping but staying mostly dry
links uncle? |
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I ask because the Metcheck forecast is for about 8 mm of rain between now a Saturday evening which should not turn it soft, specially as there is strong wind also predicted
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Be Ready now shorter than Outstrip on Betfair. Must be Figgis`s money.
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Be Ready is now shorter on Betfair than Outstrip. Must be Figgis`s money.
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I certainly wouldn't be taking 5/2 on ante post terms, somebody has though. I'd be very surprised if Outstrip starts shorter, but would be very nice if he did.
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