Horse Antepost
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Can you supplement in these races?
cheers.
cheers.
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Wasn't Kingsbarns a late supplementary entry last season
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Royal Lodge just a race to watch, for me. Ratings wise I have Somewhat 2lbs ahead of Berkshire and was toying with the idea of backing Somewhat when he was a bigger price but not interested now he's shortened. Especially as I always require a bit more value than usual on a Johnston runner as I believe the form of his runners is more erratic than average. There's also the possibility Berkshire might improve again after 98 days off, if he does he'd be a serious Derby candidate. Washaar has a few pounds to find but you couldn't discount him. Difficult to fancy the other 2 unless the main contenders underperform or there's no pace on.
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have Berkshire a few lbs clear, though a plus against Somewhat for his Newbury win and he is obviously improving.
But hopefully the Chesham win wasn't the limit of Berkshire's powers and he can improve again too. Good race, but surprised Berkshire not odds on in what looks a match. Though at the time of the year when plenty disappoint, which a whole host looked to yesterday. |
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You having a bet in the Sun Chariot, ped? It's another watching race for me. I'd love to see Sky Lantern but the price looks about right. With the wfa scale less in her favour now I have her only 3lbs ahead of Elusive Kate and the same ahead of Just The Judge. The Guineas was a while ago now and I just don't know if she'll hold that form. As we've said before, at this stage of the season some horses decline as others improve. I wouldn't rule Chigun out on her best form but she seems to have completely lost it lately. I suppose Integral is a possible improver, Stoute is having a decent patch but she has too much to find for me to consider backing her.
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* see Sky Lantern win
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If i was running a book, Kingfisher certainly wouldn't be as big as 12/1.
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berkshire has good racing style,after a long layoff, good win in my book.
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I don't know what others thought of that but it wasn't the type of race I'd want a potential classic fancy to have at this stage, looked terribly hard work for them all. I don't know what happened but they all appeared knackered late on, I assume they went too quick early but would need to review the race properly. Berkshire might still be a possible Derby winner but makes no appeal at all for the Guineas, but I didn't think he was a Guineas horse before today anyway.
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I think the headwind might be making it look hard work too. Still I think Berkshire did really well in the way he kept galloping after being keen early
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not original Figgis, but Sky Lantern for me.
Not sure about a bet though because looks like Elusive Kate going to get a soft lead again, and she is obviously hard to pass. Amazingly I don't have a single decent figure (nowhere near Group 1 anyway) in her career. If looks like they going a gallop, might play in-running, Just The Judge and Sky Lantern. So hoping Spencer or Hughes do something unusual, go off in front or take on Kate, though unlikely if there is a headwind? |
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Sky Lantern the obvious one, but cheekpieces could help chigun.
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SL won't get the trip - looking elsewhere
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forget that thought it was 10f when did they shorten it to a mile?
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amazingly it was back in 2000. I thought it was 10f up until very recently
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some greats like time charter and Indian skimmer won it when over 10f
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Have to admit I was thinking 10f when I heard she was being aimed at it a few weeks ago, sharp minds
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4yo's have the best recent record in the Sun Chariot. I have chance a few quid on Duntle as her second to Elsuive Kate on Soft ground is a decent effort given she prefers it faster. She has had less racing than Sky Lantern who is a year younger.
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brilliant filly, proved she was the best today. good to watch
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Well done, ped. I'm really pleased she won today, thought she was in danger of being underrated, as some were using the fast pace of the Coronation Stakes as an excuse to underrate her again.
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she's done it well, hasn't she, shame that Kate and Just The Judge not run their own races.
Not a good time of year to expect any horse to maintain their form is it? |
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How do you think she would get on against the colts though figgis?
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Stevie, if you mean such as Toronado and an on form Dawn Approach she'd come up just short, although I think the Timeform ratings give far too much credit to the colts. 12lbs behind Olympic Glory, for instance, is utterly ridiculous and has nothing to do with the reality. Don't think you'd get much of a price for SL with a 12lbs weight difference.
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I have her Ascot performance 6lb behind Toronado, think she might have run to that today as well looking at 1st 3 races but I'll wait til rest of races, this headwind stronger today by looks of times.
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time of the cambridgeshire makes other races not look so good now.
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Not really looked yet, Stevie, but if the one race stands out like a sore thumb I'd say it was probably just due to wind influence.
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or could be the field enabled runners to get more cover plus they raced against the rails and wind might be less there and/or ground faster. plus ground drying out
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big field*
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secrionals could shed some more light on it as well. will have a look later. too much racing today
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the nursery time seems to fit in nicely with the cambridgeshire
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sectionals seem to show cheveley park steadily run
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Also the headwind may not be as strong now as it was early on, I'll look later.
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according to met office site wind had dropped at 5.00. I've used 3 different allowances on card
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Same here, Stevie, I have the Cheveley Park as on the slow side, but not as slow as a direct comparison with the Cambridgeshire would lead me to.
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Stevie / Figgis, how much did you have the wind affecting times at Newmarket yesterday?
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Ped, like Stevie, I have used 3 allowances, with a variation of about .20 sec per fur between highest and lowest. Generally the wind affected the earlier races more than later on, imo. On occasions like these it's just down to individual judgement. Fortunately with yesterday's card I don't think it'll make too much difference anyway, don't think we learned much new about any of them that we didn't know before.
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I thought Berkshire and Somewhat underperformed, no surprise given the bunched finish and proximity of the third. I don't see any obvious excuse the way the race was run, others might disagree. Think they were just not at their best on the day.
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I'm similar to Figgis with around 0.15s per f diff between them and lowest allowance used in 7f hcap. Again like Figgis I don't think the speed figures uncovered much.
Yes the Royal Lodge stakes looks weak on form and time. I presume now that Somewhat must need some cut in the ground and a flatter track whilst Berkshire if you look at it was in about the same position as Sir Jack Leydan and cruised ahead of that rival but then he seemed to struggle as they entered the dip before pulling away near the finish so all in all wasn't a bad effort considering he was keen early. But against that you do have to question some of these easy from the back Ascot winners and wonder if they found strips of ground that were faster as don't forget he beat Somewhat and SJL bu 8l and 10l at Ascot. |
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would agree with that view, Figgis, and that we learnt nothing knew from the fillies either.
Disappointing no show from Kiyoshi given ran straight this time, don't know what to think of her now except would still be surprised if she lasted the mile next May. Still not sure about Rizeena lasting the mile either. One thing for sure, Tapestry will enjoy it much more than that pair. Swardean suggested on another thread may have been a problem with Berkshire to miss the Champagne couple of weeks ago, so maybe he didn't have a clean prep and can be rated higher yesterday given was fresh early as well? |
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thanks for the wind calculations, stevie and figgis, pretty similar here
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