Royal Lodge,Dewhurst & RPT...?

Do you remember the long discussion we had about the Coventry, Figgis, still have War Command as the outstanding 2yo figure of the season..... and as good as any 2yo have rated in last 4-5 years including 1lb in front of Frankel's Dewhurst win.

Think he was well undercooked in the Phoenix (which I think O'Brien conceded afterwards, though some would argue "he would say that, wouldn't he") and we saw a conclusive and comfortable win in the Futurity, though I remember you suggesting he was all out? Guess we just have differing views of the horse, Figgis.

So yes, if War Command has made normal physical progress through the season, I expect him to wipe the floor with this opposition on what they have achieved on the clock to date, though the Godolphin pair both won easily last time and well on the upgrade, don't know the limit of their ability yet.

Ped, I'm really surprised you have it higher than Frankel's Dewhurst figure. Although Frankel's Dewhurst figure wasn't out on its own it was still very good. I wouldn't say he was all out in the Futurity, but to my eyes he didn't have another gear in reserve. He could well improve, though, I didn't rate Dawn Approach quite as highly until his National Stakes win. I don't know how good this Dewhurst will turn out to be. I think Be Ready sets the standard but he's not shown anything outstanding as yet, if he doesn't improve himself he's certainly beatable by an improver.

That Pedrobob knows a thing or two. I`m with him apart from his choice in jockeys.

Feltfair, just wait until frankie lets you down the next time.....

Figgis, my rating for War Command includes a healthy WFA adjustment being earned in June, so Frankel's raw speed figure (as you work) would have been faster

Oh right. Like you said, hopefully we'll get a truly run race.

utterly ridiculous that Coolmore have 8 of the 14 entries

pedrobob   






  29 Sep 13 13:48 
Joined:


  27 Mar 06 
    | Topic/replies: 5,298  | Blogger: pedrobob's blog   



would agree with that view, Figgis, and that we learnt nothing knew from the fillies either.

Disappointing no show from Kiyoshi given ran straight this time, don't know what to think of her now except would still be surprised if she lasted the mile next May. Still not sure about Rizeena lasting the mile either. One thing for sure, Tapestry will enjoy it much more than that pair.

Swardean suggested on another thread may have been a problem with Berkshire to miss the Champagne couple of weeks ago, so maybe he didn't have a clean prep and can be rated higher yesterday given was fresh early as well?

Unless there was something else in the press I am not sure where he got that from? Trainer said he pulled him out because of the rain around and didn't want to run him on a ''churned up'' track.

fancy laying me £100 on that 7/1 Be Ready, Pedro?

that's what I think his chances are in a 100% book, sint, so obviously wouldn't lay that.

Not a layer normally, but if think a horse is a 7/1 chance and is priced up at 2 or 3/1, then obviously have to consider it..... or the value that lies in backing overpriced horses in rest of the market

What sort of odds would you price Be Ready at?

He'll be second fav behind War Command, around 7/2 or less imo. Godolphin paid £30k each to supplement him and Outsrip.

If both the Godolphin horses run which seems almost certain given that they have been supplemented then Outstrip will be shorter than Be Ready.

^ But if the market thinks Outstrip is a more likely Dewhurst winner than Be Ready (or even if they were joint 2nd favs behind War Command) then why is he nearly 3 times the price on here for the 2,000 Guneas (45/1 Outstrip, 16/1 Be Ready).

Hope he wins both is all I can say.

Anjaal could come and spoil the party in the Dewhurst

but I  see Great White Eagle as well clear in the Middle Park

on balance, Be Ready looks the likely winner of the Dewhurst

between him and War Command

Looks like there could be plenty of rain Friday into Saturday so could well be soft.

where did you see that forecast? not what I've seen, temperatures dropping but staying mostly dry

links uncle?

I ask because the Metcheck forecast is for about 8 mm of rain between now a Saturday evening which should not turn it soft, specially as there is strong wind also predicted

Be Ready now shorter than Outstrip on Betfair. Must be Figgis`s money.

Be Ready is now shorter on Betfair than Outstrip. Must be Figgis`s money.

I certainly wouldn't be taking 5/2 on ante post terms, somebody has though. I'd be very surprised if Outstrip starts shorter, but would be very nice if he did.

Be Ready pulled out 30k to enter and withdraw him, tis grand to av money!

13     811    Anjaal93    2    9-1    Richard Hannon57    Paul Hanagan     107    98    119
24     412432    Cable Bay16      2    9-1    Charles Hills56    Jamie Spencer     108    110    120
31     221144    Friendship27 p      2    9-1    A P O´Brien75    Seamie Heffernan     —    99    114
46     121    Outstrip28      2    9-1    Charlie Appleby54    Mickael Barzalona     114    100    127
52     4213    Stormardal16    2    9-1    Ismail Mohammed83    Neil Callan     88    94    101
65     1131    War Command49      2    9-1    A P O´Brien75    Joseph O'Brien     —    113    130


Dear god wat a sh1t race!

Yes, very poor stuff. War Command obviously heads the pack but hasn't done enough to win an average Dewhurst, imo, and is vunerable to an improver. However, his opponents have too much to find for me to be interested in them. Outstrip would be a worthy contender if we could take his last run literally, I'm not sure we can though as the time of the race was moderate. I'll have to leave this one.

yes indeed, poor fare and expect War Command to be odds on so not worth backing but the opposition is scant

Great White Eagle looks the one in the Middle Park,should get decent odds, very few in there you can consider genuine contenders

Has to b odds on - SJ have put him in 11/8!

Favourites:War Command (11/8), Outstrip (13/8), Anjaal (7)in, Friendship (10)in, Cable Bay (12)out, Stormardal (50)

Middle Park

113     1611    Astaire49      2    9-0    Kevin Ryan39    Neil Callan     111    110    124
24     170147    Bahamian Heights22 b      2    9-0    Clive Brittain43    Silvestre De Sousa     96    104    111
31     210151    Brown Sugar35      2    9-0    Richard Hannon57    Pat Dobbs     111    106    122
49     11    Great White Eagle41      2    9-0    A P O´Brien75    Joseph O'Brien     —    112    121
57     173101    Green Door29 b      2    9-0    Olly Stevens57    Jim Crowley     109    115    122
612     11531    Hot Streak7      2    9-0    Kevin Ryan39    Jamie Spencer     112    117    126
710     345425    Jallota7      2    9-0    Mick Channon45    Martin Harley     108    110    125
811     129521    Justice Day10      2    9-0    David Elsworth75    William Buick     103    98    116
93     11816    Saayerr49      2    9-0    William Haggas36    Johnny Murtagh     108    112    122
105     115    Shamshon21      2    9-0    Richard Hannon57    Richard Hughes     —    92    119
112     7422    Speedfiend17    2    9-0    Noel Quinlan    Pat Cosgrave     84    83    93
126     531112    Sudirman27      2    9-0    David Wachman80    Wayne Lordan     —    118    128
138     325111    Supplicant21      2    9-0    Richard Fahey56    Ryan Moore     110    110    125

War Command 11/8   
Outstrip    13/8   
Anjaal      7/1   
Friendship  10/1 
Cable Bay   12/1 
Stormardal  50/1

SJames prices. Looking at that I'm almost tempted to back War Command

Ped, will you be getting stuck into that, if you can get on that is?

any prices for the Middle Park?

Too quick for me, BJG

judorick
09 Oct 13 19:43

I ask because the Metcheck forecast is for about 8 mm of rain between now a Saturday evening which should not turn it soft, specially as there is strong wind also predicted

It's what the BBC News Channel weather forecast was predicting at 5.58pm on Wednesday.

Here's the latest for Newmarket which confirms it:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2641616

As they say 'to be forewarned is to be forearmed'  - or something like that.

Outstrip only 13/8 to win the Dewhurst but highlighted at 44/1 earlier this week to win the Guineas - I'm such a shrewdie.

I never take the BBC weather forecasts

Metcheck also increased their predicted volume of rain

http://www.metcheck.com/UK/7days.asp?zipcode=Newmarket&locationID=57102&lat=52.2&lon=0.4&findtype=

still about 8mm though

Be Ready must have had a setback.

Figgis considering backing War Command ?     Didn't think I'd see those words this season!

A poor Dewhurst imo, only the top pair worthy of consideration. Looks like O'Brien going for repeat of Futurity tactics, Friendship to make pace and fair gallop, War Command to sweep by in the final furlong.

As earlier, if War Command made normal progress from Coventry, then should beat Outstrip comfortably, pair clear. 11/8 in a match is huge imo, should be 1/2 or 4/9.

If he doesn't win, then his Guineas hopes will be in tatters. Can't be too many beaten horses from the Dewhurst who have gone onto win following May? (I think most Guineas winners in fact won their last start at 2)

Go on Figgis, you know you want to pile in!

Wasn't Henrythenavigator beaten in the Dewhurst?

No he weren't.

Ped, I agree about the price. In an ordinary race I'd be backing WC at those odds. This Dewhurst does look an ordinary race but throughout the years in this race there have often been one or two that far excel anything they've done before. Even though WC undoubtedly has the best known form of these I'm reluctant to take a short price on a horse that hasn't met the average standard of previous winners going into the race. As I'm probably not going to play in the race I'm hoping WC wins. If he gets beat it will be opportunity missed and he's unlikely to take as much of a chunk out of the Guineas market, whereas if he wins I can still get value in opposing him. You never know, he might win impressively in a good time and I'll want him on side in future.

Middle Park, Sudirman good thing.

War Command 6/5 
Outstrip    7/4 
Anjaal      7/1 
Friendship  14/1 
Cable Bay   14/1 
Stormardal  66/1

Revised SJ prices

nah, either AOB or Kevin Ryan will train the winner ^

Great White Eagle 2/1
Sudirman          4/1
Hot Streak        9/2
Astaire           15/2
Supplicant        9/1
Shamshon          14/1
Brown Sugar       16/1
Green Door        20/1
Saayerr           25/1
Jallota           33/1
Justice Day       33/1
Bahamian Heights  66/1
Speedfiend        100/1

Totesport

flipping tight odds that

GWE a lay for me at those odds. Ran a promising race on debut but for me he didn't build a great deal on that next time in a poor Gp3. He's probably capable of a bit better and open to further improvement but this looks a well up to scratch renewal with some fast 2yos present, he'll have to be pretty good to come out on top.

it's a perfect example of why I focus on the handicaps, you just get a much better shape and big prices in the market

Think War Command should be odds on myself. He was conceding 3lb lto and won by 3 lengths.

5/4 with 3.65.

Will wait for day of race though.

Sudirman sets the standard in the Middle Park, if he runs to his Phoenix Stakes form he'd just about take most runnings of this event. The question is whether the extra furlong found him out last time, he just wasn't at his best, or he's gone off the boil for the season? Hot Streak will be right in the mix if repeating his latest effort but will he be as effective back up another furlong? He looked a bit keen when tried over it earlier on. I see no obvious reason why Supplicant shouldn't run his race and he's a decent each way price. The rest need to improve, in my view, but it's the kind of race where nothing would surpise me too much.

do you not feel soft ground has been the key to supplicants improvement figgis?? and is important in regard his chance here

Harry, my best rating for him was in the Listed race at Ripon which was on good ground. I rated it a career best and he went on to frank it next time at Newbury on soft but I couldn't rate the form as highly as it was run at a slow pace. He also ran some fast races earlier on at Beverley and Ascot on good to firm, I think all ground comes alike to him.

have to disagree think he is a better horse with cut...think that is the reason for his win in better grade last time...he may still of been immature at the time but i backed him at beverly and thought he hit the ground very hard and was a drifter on that day...the money only came for him at goodwood when the rain came... just an opinion but thought he was a play last time on the back of him improving for proper soft ground

i think he is a big price here myself but wouldn't play him unless the ground turned in his favour...his form is working out very well, i must say at his level... whether that will be good enough to mix it with grade 1 horses on better ground is another matter...because rufford certainly isn't that class and hot streak looks a 5 furlong horse at present whom won how he should of done last time against weak horses on his favoured ground

And the Ripon race? Times indicate no worse than good ground that day.

well for me it depends how high you rate the juveniles that surrounded him they are listed horses as there form indicates...i backed riverboat springs that day but he is a rat who blew the start and the others hoku a mud lark and the easterby just listed class...he beat them well so how do you rate it?? i rate it listed/group class...then like i say he backed up on his favoured ground in better grade

in regards the time there was a 3 year handicap run the same day in roughly the same time... the winner was rated 77

I rated the front two in the handicap as having run career bests too, they didn't do much for the form next time but I wasn't surprised as I thought it was a hard race for both of them. I could be wrong about Supplicant, when you're basing an opinon on one race there's always that chance but I find it's a chance worth taking, waiting for too much evidence means the value disappears. As Supplicant went on to win next time I'm inclined to believe I was right until proved otherwise. As I said, I also rated him quite highly at Ascot and Beverley, the Royal Ascot form might not look great but the time was fast. The thing about that race is in many years you get a lot of runners not going on from it, it doesn't necessarily mean the form is poor.

As Supplicant went on to win next time I'm inclined to believe I was right until proved otherwise.


yes you were right as was i... but that doesn't mean he will back up on a better surface against a better grade of horse...

don't get me wrong figgis he is an admirable 2 year old and if this was being run on soft ground that would be an entirely different argument as would be his favoured surface and thus give him edges against other 2 year olds who wouldn't be so keen

chances worth taking for me are when we are getting value and on favourable conditions...in this case we are getting value but not on favoured conditions... plus we don't know he is up to group 1 level on what he has achieved so far...

for me his form is a muchness of a muchness on a line through the likeable brown sugar...like a lot of the other 2 year olds this season who ran in the windsor castle as well although i did think it was a good renewal for the grade

Looking at the Newmarket card for Sat, the Ire look to have a very strong hand in the 2yo group races (G1s) & will prob win them both imo.
Would also fancy their Ces main hope for a bit of ew ££ as long as the ground stays gd or faster. In fact I think most of the big Ire hopes for Sat's card would want the ground to stay on the faster side.

Harry, we'll have to disagree regarding his ground requirements. Who are the better grade of horses in this race though? Sudirman is on his best form, but there has to be a bit of a doubt if he'll be at his best. Hot Streak won impressively but in my view he hasn't done any more than Supplicant so far even if he is as good over 6f. The time looked better than it really was for his last race, imo. Great White Eagle has potential but hasn't shown a great deal on the track so far. I'll probably be laying the fav but if I was looking for a value bet I can't really see further than Supplicant whatever the ground.

it will disappointing to me if the likes of Supplicant or Hot streak wins the race

GWE ran against a track bias yet won very easily in good time, I upgraded his potential mark sharply and if he runs to my mark he will win easily

Sudirman has the form in the book but I just get the feeling he is vulnerable, so the only other I would consider is Astaire

but the fav ought to win really, just the price is unattractive

GWE's time was pretty ordinary in comparison with other races on the straight/dog leg track that day. It was the only race over 6f so it could be argued that the race should be treated differently than the 7f and 8f races, however, a look at those close behind doesn't really do much for the view that the time should be upgraded, imo.

you are entitled to your opinion but I've been using a method for 25 years that says it should be and I have total faith in it (same method predicted Sprinter Sacre would reach at least 165 over fences after his debut chase win for example) - the horse is capable of running much faster than he has shown

think you might well have to reassess GWE later on, he is about 15lb better already than he has shown on the track according to my figures so we shall have to see who has got it right

well not sure figgis tricky affair...and i certainly respect supplicant but will move on... said what i feel but like you say he is value

am i underestimating hot streak...can't quite figure him out just yet...he ran choke out against supplicant but has looked a classy type and has won on fast going but that was against a poor bunch...just have to take him on till he proves me wrong but he is short here after beating some poor horses easily in cornwallis

sudirman is the one for me but have to forgive him his last run but he is a proper 2 year old who is good value for me...i think he will be fine but wouldn't want to much rain so can't play till day because every drop of rain will affect his chances...i like him though and he is just the type for this

great white eagle is tricky as can't figure out what he has beaten but has done it easily and don't think he will mind the rain myself...but the horses he has beaten shouldn't allow him to be this short also not sure just yet what he will find when the shalali is applied...struggling with him and would liked to have seen another run

i like astaire a lot but is he just a york horse...he is respected all the same but can't get the york runs out of my head

it says a lot that brown sugar is a 16-1 poke as for me has done nothing wrong whether he is up to this i have my doubts but his nonaynever run was decent enough

very competitive race and not that keen to bet but like sudirman if he gets his conditions and will play him it that eventuality plays out as feel he is better than these and is quite good value imo

Using the same method for 25 years? Either you're a very old man or you worked out a perfect method after only a few years of studying the game as a lad . I've already said he's probably better than shown, however, if I thought he was 15lbs better I'd be hammering the 2/1, what price do you think he should be then?

Anyway else get a high figure for Hot Streak? I got a very high one for that Ascot run, but think he may need it softer. Surdiman my 2nd highest rated behind HS. If fast ground would go with him. may dutch the both as have them some way clear.

I know some may point out Kickboxer as letting the form down in 3rd and he ran on through horses who had gone a bit too quick but he did get a good figure from me for his Haydock Nursery against Musical Comedy. Both those 2 run at York tomorrow so I may re-assess Hot Streak rating after seeing how they get on.

Stevie, using strict comparisons I have Hot Streak very high, too high, imo. I know all the other races weren't slowly run so I reckon the race was wind assisted more than most. These are the kind of figures horses that I used to lose badly on in the early days until I learned what was happening. It was still a decent performance though and makes him competitive here.

Yes I don't entirely trust the figure Figgis but he did seem to settle much better which in part was due to the overly fast pace Excel's Beauty went and he got a nice tow into race from her. He may revert to pulling away his chances on saturday though.

National Stakes winner Toormore is only likely to run in the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster on October 26 if he needs to reaffirm his position as the leading juvenile after Future Champions Day at Newmarket.

"We had no plans to run him again as we think he's heading to be crowned champion two-year-old which would be great," said Tim Palin of owners Middleham Park Racing.

"Unless War Command was very impressive this weekend, or Great White Eagle did something spectacular, we think Toormore is currently top of the pile as it looks like Australia isn't going to run again.

"I think we'd only be tempted to run him if we needed to go out and prove that"

What a sensible way of planning a talented horse's career

no idea what that's all about Figgis, unless they think they can up the impending sale value by calling him the champion 2yo.

Do you think Hot Streak can back up last week's win? If it comes up good to soft or worse, would be happy to trust the figure and wade in on him

Ped, I've used a separate allowance for his race. I just don't believe it was as fast as it might appear and I'm not willing to downgrade the other races just to make it fit. He'd easily be my fastest 2yo this season if that was the case, actually he'd be up with the best 2yos I've seen but I really don't hink so. I've rated him 2lbs behind Sudirman. He's definitely in with a strong chance especially if Sudirman is below par. I don't know if he'll be as good back up to 6f, as Stevie says he appeared to settle better but that might've just been due to the shorter trip and fast pace? I'll be honest, I'm not a great fan of the yard for horses backing up fast times.

Weather forecast looks awful for Newmarket now, think I'll study the card properly on the day when the going is known.

rain is coming for supplicant figg hold all bets!!

backed Supplicant too. Very open race but his price is fair enough for a horse that was supplemented, handles soft ground and has won his last 3. He was quite unlucky at Goodwood the time before that when I backed him. 8/1, ew.

not sure its going to be a as soft as people think,nice day today with sun out and drying wind,could be wrong but think most horses will be ok on good going(maybe just on easy side)

Spot on sj.

War Command looks too short to me - is he really all that? Mind you the opposition does not look strong - weak race IMO.

Certainly no slower than good ground, I'd say the fast side of it judging by the time of the first race, might be some wind influence though.

Should have known better than to back Fahey in Group1.

I did say I would oppose War Command in a Group 1 but added the proviso it depended upon the opposition. Not today. I did say I thought Sudirman and Big Time were making there own form though at the time.

There is still a chance the highly-regarded Be Ready will run again this season after he was forced to miss the Dewhurst last weekend.


2000 Guineas Antepost: Be Ready 16/1

Be Ready: Could run again this season
Related ContentLive horse racing resultsRacecards and formLatest non-runnersLatest video formFree £5 bet every week
The Godolphin two-year-old made his debut in a Listed race and ran with credit to be second to the classy Somewhat before he ran out a very impressive winner of a good race at Doncaster.

He was subsequently supplemented for the Dewhurst but scoped badly last Thursday morning and was not declared.

Profiles Be Ready (IRE)
His options now are the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster on October 26, for which he would have to be supplemented again, the Horris Hill at Newbury on the same weekend or a trip to France.

"We need to make a decision over whether he will run again this season or not," said trainer Saeed bin Suroor. "He just had a little setback which meant he couldn't run in the Dewhurst last week.

"We'll see if he makes the Racing Post Trophy or not. His options are Doncaster, there's Group Ones in France or maybe even the Group Three at Newbury. We'll keep his options open."

Like this horse myself (Be Ready) been very taken with his only two runs to date.
Bags of scope to make a top 2yo & 3yo imo.
Only prob with an ante-p interest in him for next year would be who trains him, as the boyz in Blue are norm very slow to get going over hear at the start of the Flat season.
If he does run again this year it will prob be the R P Trophy at Donny.

Be Ready looks to have plenty of pace to me and while he's sure to get the mile next year I don't like the idea of running him in the RPT on probable soft ground. I'd be happier if they put him away for the year as I've already seen enough to convince me he's going to be competitive in the Guineas if training on.

kingston hill be supplemented for RPT cant find any news about Be Ready

Century Supplemented

Racing Post ‏@RacingPost 9m
Godolphin’s Pinzolo, Ballydoyle’s Century and the Sir Michael Stoute-trained Snow Sky have been supplemented for the Racing Post Trophy...

Racing Post ‏@RacingPost 8m
...A total of 13 remain in the Racing Post Trophy on Saturday including Toormore, Somewhat and Kingston Hill, who was also supplemented.

figg i know bin suroor mentioned still running be ready in this after his injury but are you sure he is a runner in this??

like you say won't be ideal on this ground...especially on the back of an injury

he didn't have an injury, he had a dirty scope.

There is still a chance the highly-regarded Be Ready will run again this season after he was forced to miss the Dewhurst last weekend.

The Godolphin two-year-old made his debut in a Listed race and ran with credit to be second to the classy Somewhat before he ran out a very impressive winner of a good race at Doncaster.

He was subsequently supplemented for the Dewhurst but scoped badly last Thursday morning and was not declared.

His options now are the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster on October 26, for which he would have to be supplemented again, the Horris Hill at Newbury on the same weekend or a trip to France.

"We need to make a decision over whether he will run again this season or not," said trainer Saeed bin Suroor. "He just had a little setback which meant he couldn't run in the Dewhurst last week.

"We'll see if he makes the Racing Post Trophy or not. His options are Doncaster, there's Group Ones in France or maybe even the Group Three at Newbury. We'll keep his options open."



ah apologies knew he had had a set back

Harry, no I'd only seen the earlier report that he was a possible, I'm glad they've decided not to run. I also wouldn't be keen on the French 1m Gp1s for the same reasons. The Horris Hill while being 7f is also usually run on pretty soft ground, I know he handled some give well enough at Doncaster but I doubt it would be ideal.

agree moves well...has plenty going for him but would say they would pull stumps now surely

however the trainer clearly wants more experience so who knows

you backed it in the guineas figgis??

Harry, Toormore is my main Guineas bet, but I've also backed Be Ready in case the Toormore bet goes astray. As yet, I've only had half of my intended stake on Be Ready, as another run this year could be a negative, if they put him away I'll back him again.

fair play...i like him as an individual tbf and not a bad price...see your angle as he is untapped and they think the world of him...i also really liked the horse he beat at doncaster barley mow but they seem intent on running him on soft ground which is annoying...

1     13    Altruistic27    2    9-0    J P Murtagh100    Johnny Murtagh     —    74    117
2     41    Buonarroti20    2    9-0    A P O´Brien58         —    83    108
3     1    Century13      2    9-0             —    24    100
4     111    Chief Barker49      2    9-0    Richard Hannon55         77    100    114
5    4    Dolce N Karama29    2    9-0    John Patrick Shanahan100         —    53    68
6     42    Johann Strauss6      2    9-0    A P O´Brien58         —    91    108
7     11    Kingston Hill14      2    9-0             —    108    123
8     11    Pinzolo36      2    9-0        Mickael Barzalona     —    99    111
9    1    Red Rocks Point29      2    9-0    A P O´Brien58         —    98    98
10     341    Snow Sky24      2    9-0             —    86    104
11     14212    Somewhat28      2    9-0    Mark Johnston37         100    114    124
12     122    The Grey Gatsby42      2    9-0    Kevin Ryan47         —    101    120
13     111    Toormore41    2    9-0    Richard Hannon55    Richard Hughes     —    114    135

Toormore owners said they'd only run if War Command toppled him from the champion 2yo slot, a dumb way of mapping out his next target, imo, yet he's still entered.

surely anyone with Guineas pretensions will not be running over 1m in soft/hvy ground this weekend?

Very surprised that Toormore not been sold to Qataris or Godolphin yet

Figgis, you've made a lot of good calls this season and get max respect from me but I just can't fathom this huge faith you (and others) hold in Be Ready. To me, he was very well beaten on debut and won a very ordinary Listed race in a nothing time at Donny. Yes, he's a promising colt, but it seems a big call to say he's done enough to show he can win a Guineas.

Ped, in years gone by The Hannon yard used to be one I avoided like the plague. Yes I know they had some fast 2yos and had a few substandard Guineas winners but I always found the majority of their 3yo and older horses to have erratic form. I've had to massively alter my opinion on the yard in the last few seasons. I know they've been training a better class of horse but I also think the handling of the runners has vastly improved, coincidentally this seemed to happen when Hannon Jr became more involved. I was surprised to hear him talking on tv today with regard to running Toormore in the RPT. He emphasised that the Guineas is very much the plan so in my view this is a poor call if he runs on Saturday.

Howellsy. I believe the time was much better than it might look using direct comparisons. I have the beaten runners confirming their figures elsewhere. I could, of course, be wrong, but this is the kind of horse that used to slip under my radar when I first started doing speed figures. I've managed to pick up on a lot more of them in latter years since improving my methods. It was very interesting that Godolphin chose to debut him in a Listed race and Suroor has said he's always been his favourite of their 2yos. Not that I would back a horse for the Guineas just because of that but it does add some substance to my interpretation that it was a good performance. I'm not saying he's already done enough to win, I think Toormore has shown better form, but I do think he's already shown enough to be placed in a normal year and only needs to improve slightly compared to most of his opponents.

Was hugely impressed with Century on debut and if he is the O'Brien chosen one he'll do or me.

agree with you Figgis re the Hannon older horses.

After three Guineas winners between 1973-1990, amazing that 2014 will be 24 years since Hannon's last....

.... and 18 years since Saeed Bin Suroor won his first Guineas. How time flies, didn't think he had been here that long

Looks certain to be run on very soft ground if weather is correct (heavy rain)