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Prix Jacques Le Marois - Sunday.
Prix Jacques Le Marois - Sunday.
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DA's RPR's have improved from race to race Exc the Derby run
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Regarding the 1 from 4 over 1m, I don't know about the Guineas run, maybe she didn't stay that day but at that stage I thought she was overrated a bit. There was an obvious excuse in this race last year and there has to be a big chance she was over the top when she went to America and I thought so beforehand. I'm not sure why so many people are willing to ignore the Moulin win as evidence, she beat a decent horse in Farhh (he's a better horse this year,imo) and the time was good.
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Sandown - I'm interested and confused that your betting big on DA when he is the exact price your figures say he should be (like lumping on heads at evens in a coin toss?), and saving on Intello who is much shorter than you think he should be but you are not backing DOW who is over twice the price you think he should be?
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I also think that some horses gain stamina with age and it's possible she did just that from 3 to 4. If she gets beat today it'll either be that she doesn't run her race because of what she did last week or something like DA will simply put up a better performance, personally I won't be using the distance or ground as an excuse.
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I didn't do any speed figures for the moulin Figgis but the last 400m seemed quite fast to me suggesting it was a steadyish pace although I'm guessing as I haven't done a lot of sectionals for Longchamp. Maybe Sandown knows.
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I don't know about the sectionals, Stevie, but I'm positive the overall time was good. As she's a hold up horse I don't believe it would make a difference whether the early sectionals were slow or fast, if she can run a fast overall time over 1m then she stays, in my view.
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figgis
just out of interest pal are you basing your interest around the faarh race?? farhh was just coming in off a hard race against frankel and had to make his own running or in her romps against inferior horses in the maurice de gheest (lethal force ran flat) in the past 3 years on ground she likes...i am with sandown in regards her best trip |
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Harry
Before this race last year I wasn't sure about MC staying a mile, actually I had doubts, however, after the race I thought it was very likely she had stayed. Admittedly it wasn't conclusive because of the trouble in running but I had that run only 6lbs below her best and to my eyes she was staying and would've gone at least close to her best with a clear run. The Moulin run was conclusive proof, imo, as on the clock Farhh ran right up to his previous best and MC was only 1lb below her best, 1lb is negligible. |
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figg that is fair but for me this race last year was not as good as renewal as this race and her run flattened out towards the finish imo she was unlucky however...when you look at her closely for me anyway she has been overrated her whole career with the times she has won against poor opposition...the farhh race for me didn't suit him in regards making his own running that isn't to say i don't believe he ran his race just that it suited her more...but on the back of that run she achieved a rating way above what she is capable of...its strange but sometimes horses just get away with it and if she wins today i will tear my form book up as its d-day for me in regards to me not thinking she is not up to this grade in this company...
if she gets within 2 lengths today she will back up where i have her... if she wins or goes close i would of got her completely wrong her whole career |
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Harry, I'd agree with you about her being a touch overrated until her latest win, I can't rate that anything but true Gp1 standard, even allowing for Lethal Force expectedly being a bit below par. I have that run 4lbs better than anything she's done before and 4lbs is a big difference at this level. Horses can and often do improve at the age of 5, Farhh put up a top class performance in the Lockinge, better than anything I've seen from him previously. Whether she can repeat that performance so soon I don't know, it's that that concerns me more than the opposition, unless DA is on top form of course.
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figg i'm certainly not saying she isn't a grade 1 horse at 120 level...but i believe she mugged farhh in a race run to suit...the horses she beat the other day bar lethal force were very average...anyway we will see
they are keen on getting dawn approach books and on here and books which is giving me itchy feet so might yet change my position as am not pig headed |
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uncle puncle
Sandown - I'm interested and confused that your betting big on DA when he is the exact price your figures say he should be (like lumping on heads at evens in a coin toss?), and saving on Intello who is much shorter than you think he should be but you are not backing DOW who is over twice the price you think he should be? A very good question. Pricing up for me can be based on an average likelihood of outcome when in fact there are a range of possible outcomes & therefore prices. So we can have a situation where the average depth of a river may be 1 ft at the sides, 20 ft in the middle with an average of maybe 4ft. I will back DA because for me there are some major potential negatives attached to the others which are near impossible to price up on. For me, DA has a clear cut chance whilst Intello could improve significantly leaving a large gap between those 2 and the rest. Combined they could easily be 1.5. (Intello is not value but he is the main danger imo and overall on the bet I consider I am still getting value.)I have had something on DOW because of the price. |
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Moonlight Cloud definitely a lay for me here. Of the front three she looks the most vulnerable with the stamina doubts. Dawn Approach will run his race but i have a suspicion that Intello will improve past him much the same as Toronado appears to have done. Elusive Kate looks the solid ew play as i cannot see her out of the three given her record here.
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As far as MC's last race time is concerned the time indicates fast ground. On sectionals, the filly was slower in the past 2f than you would be looking for if she is to stay a fast run 8f. I doubt that it would be wise to use that run to support a claim that she is best at a mile.
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Well I got that wrong
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well well well
can't believe it well done figgis got her all wrong |
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well done Figgis
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wd Moonlight Cloud backers, she travelled like the best horse in the race. Dawn Approach below form and Intello not good enough over a mile
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Hands up, got it wrong, but what a tactical mess from Bolger camp. One thing that couldn't happen was Letir Mor finishing close up. Second thing was Letir Mor going to the rail?! Hello? Still, very impressive burst of speed from MC and well done Figgis and all backers.
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a lot ran badly there
she will always annoy me but fair play she was the best on the day |
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2nd was desperately unlucky. TJ had to go when he did because he knew Frankie had him cooked imo.
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agree howselly watched 10 jaques le marois this morning and the rail was never where you want to be
wd winners |
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set it up beautifully for her....that Olympic Glory still has plenty to offer this season....
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Phew
 cheers lads. |
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Think I'll have to watch that back a few times to see what happened. I didn't see where frankie came from
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think he was out wide as well....when MC shot clear he was behind her but just to the left.
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First thoughts are that was pretty impressive considering she put up a big performance only 7 days ago. Got there a bit soon but she was travelling so well Jarnet probably had to go when he did. Olympic Glory a fairly decent horse but likely to be overrated in the market on the appearance of that run.
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Very impressive performance by Moonlight Cloud. Very strong case for her being Champion Sprinter and miler in the same season.
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I couldn't make myself back any of the top three for a win and only MC for a place. I finally think I read that one right after a couple of setbacks. WD Figgis.
I think TJ saw Frankie was looking for an out on his inside so had to go when he did on MC. He, Olympic Glory, was checked and switched and was a defo unlucky loser imo. Looks like I was lucky to collect last year as well. Hey ho. |
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thefarmer
11 Aug 13 15:17 Very impressive performance by Moonlight Cloud. Very strong case for her being Champion Sprinter and miler in the same season. I said after last week that she should be definitely be rated the best horse in Europe. unclepuncle 11 Aug 13 11:36 Just watched Intello's last win on You Tube and was far from impressed. I think he may struggle against these top class milers. Place lay at 1.5 for me. Typical - a head away from collecting.  |
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Well she's proved she just about stays a mile though I think that's the limit of her stamina. She does go on fastish ground looking at times of this race and her last race.
I think Olympic Glory is a very good miler now and he wasn't far behind DA in coventry and that proves he's up to this level. Given where DOW finished i'm sure an on form DA would have gone very close at least. Intello good run but will be better over further. |
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Can't see how she can be Champion miler with Toronado supposedly Hannon's best horse. She only just won on her favourite track today lets see where she goes now and what runs.
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Agree Stevie G 8f her absolute limit and I doubt she'd get home in a QEII or Sussex - French style racing probably suits her though. And of course she has the speed to all but chase down Black Caviar over 6. A formidable beast.
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Jim Bolger must be asked the question though. Why run in the Derby when the world and his wife knew he wouldn't stay and why run today when everyone thought, including the betting, that it was a race too far?
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I think DA would already have been retired if it wasn't owned by Godolphin. I expect one more race - probably the QEII after a break.
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THIERY JARNET HAS TO TAKE CREDIT FOR HER FRENCH WINS, BUT ON FOREIGN SOILS IS A DEAD LOSS!!!!!!!
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Well done Figgis. Good analysis.
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WD figgis,intello not quick enough over the mile,while DA probably a race to far
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Toronado still the best miler in Europe though. In theory would have won by a length or so.
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The best miler in Europe has been sidelined for the best part of the season, imo.
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