Prix Jacques Le Marois - Sunday.

Given what DA did at Epsom I wouldn't want to be backing him on his first start abroad at the current price. Top class though he is, he is still a little bit quirky, like his dad.

Wouldn't be too worried about DA temperament wise thought he behaved really professionally throughout at Goodwood. The Derby was the wrong race and just a blip to put a line through for me. The concern with him is after a tough race is it too soon to run at his best? That however can also be said of Moonlight Cloud who's a super filly in the right conditions but I don't see a mile as being her optimum trip especially if there's some pace in the race. That combined with such a quick return would make me be a little wary of backing her in this. She won v easily last time but that doesn't take away the fact she had to beat a tough G1 performer and needs to improve on it a week later. Aljamaheer doesn't appear to be good enough at the moment. Olympic Glory looks held on all form. Elusive Kate & DOW are quality horses but you would be surprised if either finished any better than 2nd. Intello for me is a top class colt and has been aimed at the race but I do feel his future lies over further. He's going to have to improve what 10 pounds on his previous form over a mile? If Dawn Approach is anywhere near his best I think he's going to be very hard to beat and think he deserves to be fav. Intello to me looks the only horse who could beat DA due to his obvious potential but whether he finds the needed improvement over a mile I'm not sure.

Yes of course Reath. My mistake. He is such a frequent runner over here it's easy to forget he is travelling from Ireland!

At 10/1 I have played DOW eachway, NRNB. On form he is held by DA but it is interesting AOB decides to run him again and take him on. IF DA has an off day I think it is wide open. Moonlight Cloud as mentioned by others looks better at shorter, he holds Elusive Kate on Royal Ascot form and I am not sure Intello is superstar miler, not yet anyway. A bit of rain would be nice.

Tom Segal did say that Moonlight Cloud has an army of followers over "la manche" who battered the price last Sunday. I wonder if they may skew the market again, cos I'm not playing at current prices.

also I suppose I should say that DA has reportedly come out of his tough race very well, as he has always tended to do, and the only 'quirk' in his makeup is that he needs a strong gallop early to settle - that he will get, esp with Leitir Mor in there. Talk about his suspect temperment is very ironic when all through his 2yo and 3yo career he's actually been a model of consistency, with the one exception - that's still 9/10 races he's been perfect. As anyone who's seen him in the flesh will tell you he's as relaxed a horse as you're likely to see, and just loves his racing. He does get a bit fired up when the gate open, but better than being on his haunches !

I'm going to be all over Dawn Approach. Manning was outrode by Hughes latest and I think had you changed the jocks, you would have changed the result. Irregardless, the two are the best 3 year old milers since the great one (I think they're as good as Excelebration was as a three year old, maybe better). I backed Intello big time over 11 furlongs, but there's no way it'll beat Dawn Approach over the straight 8. GL

Can't have Moonlight Cloud on my mind. For me she's a 6f/7f horse.
I've backed Intello,really like this horse. It's possible he may be better at 10f but Dawn Approach looks the only danger to me and he had a hard race at Goodwood.

Cracking race in prospect and given how tight the top of the market and with Moonlight Cloud and Dawn Approach both coming into the race off very short breaks I think DOW @ 20/1 and especially Aljamaaheer @ 35/1 look worth a little nibble.

UB - just noticed this thread after posting my views on a possible upset with Aljamaaheer on the normal forum...he's 40's!
I've seen far bigger shocks in the top grade before and he's worth a small punt in my view as although it has to be said he's inferior to several in this, everything's in his favour

I've wanted Intello onside since his Feilden Stakes win but he's the first one of the three main contenders I'm throwing out here. I have him with 6lbs to find on Dawn Approach's last two efforts, not impossible but unlikely in my view. One thing he does have in his favour is he appears to have had the best preparation for the race but I still can't have him. For me, while Dawn Approach has obviously run very well on his latest two starts, he's slightly lacked the spark he showed in earlier races. He still has the potential to put in another impressive performance before he's retired but I think this might come a bit soon after his exertions against Toronado.

I rated Moonlight Cloud's latest win as her best yet and on these terms I have her 2lbs ahead of DA's last two efforts. I don't share the view that she doesn't get the mile. In winning the Moulin last year I had her only 1lb below her previous best mark. Yes she was only just holding on but in Farhh she was up against a runner I had her evenly matched with. She also looked to be staying well enough when she was arguably unlucky in this race last year. I don't know if she'd have won with a clear run that day but on my figures there was nothing between her and the winner. There's the possibility this race will also be a bit too soon for her after that big performance only a week ago and it has to be a concern, but as she also won the Maurice de Gheest last year and was in the process of running a big race here only seven days later I'm hoping the feat can be repeated, but with more luck in running this time. I did toy with what I thought was the safer option of laying Intello but as I have MC top rated on recent efforts and she's a bigger price than DA I'm backing her.

A good summary Figgis and you could be right. Last year's race had 3 year olds in it and they finished 3rd and 4th, in Elusive Kate and Caspar Netscher. The 3 year olds this time look a good deal stronger but only time will tell. If Moonlight Cloud was unlucky last year, and it certainly looked like it but I was happy to collect on the winner, that will bring her well into it. If not then the 3 year old colts should have it. She is 3s with PP.

For some reason Deauville appears to be a bit of a specialist's track with horses winning several times there.

I have DA 2lb above Moonlight Cloud with DOW and Intello a further 6lb behind and Aljamaheer and EK another 4 behind.
Purely on my figures that make DA 6/4 and MC 2/1, 9s DOW & Int and 32 for Alj and EK.

However DA appears just 11 days after running a fast time and that is surely going to take something out.

MC loves this course but  will she see out a truly run mile as well as the others?

Intello could improve past my figure and has the best prep but I couldn't back him at that price.

So DOW or Aljam could be the e/w play.

However I'm happy to just watch and it looks a fascinating contest.

For me it's all about Dawn Approach. The potential backer has to evaluate whether the odds are generous enough to include the chance he might not run his race. I said back in early May that this horse is a high class grinder, suited to straight tracks. He's a rich man's Haafhd. The latter regressed at Ascot and Goodwood, to a larger extent on both occasions because he was an inferior horse, but as soon as he was returned to a straight track, he was back to his best. Makfi, too, was an example of a straight track horse who was inconvenienced by a bend. This horse has basically run to his best every time bar Epsom, but the turning tracks have negated the advantage he holds over other horses, namely his ability to withstand fast fractions and keep going. As for Moonlight Cloud, I just can't see where she's proved that she's good enough to beat top class colts in a truly run mile. The Moulin is essentially a speed test which was never going to suit Farrh. I suppose we'll find out today, but I think it's being assumed she'll be more than good enough if she can just eke out her stamina (in what promises to be the fiercest run Marois ever, with 3 pacemakers plus Elusive Kate). I think she has class to prove as well. Maybe she'll do it, but at the prices she's rank value. She's also drawn away from the speed. Intello has to be a bigger danger. His run in the French Guineas was incredible, all but winning despite a horror draw and trouble in running. Since then. he's just done what he's had to do, but today has been his target for some time, and we will find out how good he is over a mile. However, in pure value terms I can't have him either, since he has to prove he's up to this level, even if I suspect he will be. Declaration of War is the best pure value in the race. If you look at his profile, it screams 'progressive, high class miler' and for me he should be second favourite behind DA. However, I think it's worth taking a chance at 2-1 that DA will run his race. If he does, I think he'll win.

Just watched Intello's last win on You Tube and was far from impressed given he was a virtual certainty - was being stoked up a fair way out and although he was ultimately well on top at the line I think he may struggle against these top class milers.

Place lay at 1.5 for me.

one thing i will add for betting purposes is DOW is worth a small play in the place market and moonlight cloud is worth a small place lay at the 1.56 which might look a gift later

DA is the top rated horse on RPR's and the Derby apart he has progressed from race to race. His speed figs back up his RPR's and the Sussex run was top class.At around 3.5 fav that is exactly where I would have him. It may be only 11 days since that run but he had a mini-break of 51 days before that. He's proved that he thrives on racing and a quick turnaround doesn't worry Bolger with the horse working well.

MC is under priced imo. 3.8 is way too short for a horse which is clearly best with some cut,over 7f ( 9 from 10 at 7f) whose PB on RPR's was 6 races back and if anyone is worried about a fast turnaround for DA, then you'd be even more concerned with a 7 day turnaround.A 5.0 shot at best.

Intello is the potential big improver given his trainer's ability and the fact that he rates him highly.Has 6lbs to find on RPR's but has some fast time figs in support.The distance change is problematic, especially this far into his second term.His breeding shouts 12f, he is fav for the Arc, but against that Fabre is a genius.I have to make him the main threat to DA and my price is 4.5.

DOW has to be value at around 20.0 given that he is only 6lbs behind DA and is progressing.More like a 7.5 chance for me.

EK is priced about right at 12.0. Her G1's have been against fillis & mares and she is 0/3 in G1's against males.


In conclusion, a good bet on DA with Intello as a saver.

Sandown

I don't agree about DA's speed figures improving but that's a matter of opinion, as is whether MC gets the trip or not, but as she broke the course record last time it's highly unlikely the ground will be a problem today.

Agreed.