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1000 GUINEAS (2014)
1000 GUINEAS (2014)
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Interesting to see that Joyeuse has been entered for the Dick Poole Stakes (Listed) over 6f at Salisbury next week, with Tom Queally booked to ride (presumably the owner's new retained jockey James Doyle is engaged elsewhere??). She must win this convincingly if she's to maintain her position in the Guineas market. The entry suggests that connections are eyeing the Cheveley Park Stakes (her only remaining big-race entry).
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An easy win for the superbly-bred Miss France at Chantilly this afternoon. She was mentioned on this thread a few weeks ago, as she had been entered for the Prix Morny, but she disappointed first time out in the Prix de Lisieux at Deauville. The longer trip today clearly suited her and she is clearly a Group class filly in the making. She holds an entry in the Prix Marcel Boussac.
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I have only 3lbs between the first 3 in the Moyglare betting and I think any of them needs to show a bit of improvement tomorrow to be up to winning an average Guineas. I have Rizeena top rated, although over a shorter distance, Tapestry 1lb behind and Kiyoshi (revised rating) a further 2lbs behind that one. I'd go along with the betting that Tapestry is the most likely winner due to having the proven form over the trip. Rizeena looks a bit overpriced, but there has to be a worry about her having already had a busy time of things and no form over the trip. There doesn't look to be any obvious likely improvers amongst the rest, apart from Weld's filly. I reckon she has to improve a stone to get competitive tomorrow, which isn't impossible, I have Tapestry improving by just that amount from her debut to second start, but it's not something I'd want to bet on happening here. Kiyoshi doesn't have much to find and obviously she can win but all things considered I think her price is a bit too short so I'm laying her for a few quid just on value grounds.
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Very interesting race today, I keep looking at my Albany rating and I think it is too high. The horse that's bugging me is Heart Focus. Did she put up a career best in the Albany and then run below form next twice or have I overrated the Albany and Heart Focus ran to the same form at Leopardstown then in which case on a line through Perhaps and Heart Focus there isn't much between Tapestry and Kiyoshi. although Kiyoshi still ahead. But I may have to revise my Albany rating.
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Timeform card was given out by Hills.
They have Rizeena 123 Kiyoshi 125p Tapestry 126p Just for interest... |
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Kiyoshi 108+
Rizeena 104 (but at least 9lbs below par last twice) Wonderfully 98 Perhaps 95 Tapestry 94+ Betting is all wrong for me, Kiyoshi should be warm favourite. Even the Guineas market says so. |
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Latest Timeform master ratings for the top juvenile fillies:
112p Tapestry 111p Kiyoshi 111 Vorda 109 Lucky Kristale 109 Rizeena 108p Amazing Maria 108 Ihtimal 107 Sandiva Personally, I wouldn't rate Amazing Maria or Ihtimal quite so high. |
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I'm betting Kiyoshi as even if I downgrade her albany win by 7 then I still have her 6 above Tapestry and Rizeena.
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I'm with you Stevie.
Rizeena gone backwards last twice, whilst Tapestry could still be anything, but not met anything like Kiyoshi yet. 2/1 in a match bet where you have the better filly on what they have shown so far is huge (though the Weld filly would not be complete surprise) Would imagine O'Brien will use Perhaps as the sacrificial lamb to expose any stamina flaws in the English pair with all his runners already having won over 7f. So no excuses for Kiyoshi, should get a decent pace to run at, though watching a showboating Spencer on a hold type is one of the worst sights in racing for me |
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I imagine that Perhaps will make the running, as she did in the Debutante Stakes, although Wonderfully made all when winning the Silver Flash Stakes last time and may also race prominently here. Kiyoshi will be held up, but hopefully not too far off the pace: I suspect that Spencer will aim to track Tapestry. Carla Bianca is a middle distance filly for next year and I'll be surprised if she has the pace to cope with these, but she will probably be staying on well at the finish. It will be interesting to see how Rizeena copes with the step up in trip. I hope Touch Of Snow doesn't cause problems: she's completely outclassed and the most she can achieve is to get in other people's way!!
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I have to say this is a very tricky race and don't like it from a betting point of view i'm in figgis camp in regards laying kiyoshi i'd be a tad worried about the fast ground for her...taking a line on wonderfully and perhaps i'd say tapestry isn't that far clear of the field...i think they made much to much use of perhaps last time and would like them to give her chance off a hold up ride but i guess she will be the hare...had a look back at the last 10 winners of the race and they had all run over 7 furlongs whether that is a guide to the winner i don't know...
have to say on breeding and toughness i have to have a small wager on rizeena here as think she is the right price but those taking the short prices i think its tight myself as don't have the top 2 as far clear as some |
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Watered ground. Do I not like that
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Tapestry could be anything but her bare form is well behind Kiyoshi to my eyes so at close to 9/4 the bet has to be Kiyoshi.
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9/4?? Where?
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Just watched the (crappy) videos of the Albany on YouTube. When a horse quickens like that they usually win a lot
of races. I'm really expecting Kiyoshi to shorten a lot for the 1000 gns after winning in fine style today. Let's hope I'm right. |
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I was matched at 9/4 last night.
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3 bets today...
Kiyoshi to win today Ante Post- Carla Bianca- 1000 and Oaks EW> This race should prove to have an enormous bearing on the ante post market... That "Dazzling" scares the pants off me though!! |
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Not too upset about that result.I'll take Tapestry to come out as the best filly long term and needs the mile desperately.
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Not sure what to make of Kiyoshi after that, came there looking the winner but looked to me like she didn't get home. will have to watch again
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Out of the first three, Tapestry looks like the further she goes the better whereas the other two looks like they don't want any further than todays trip.
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A rough and unsatisfactory race, but there seemed to be no fluke about Rizeena's win. She proved that she stays 7f and looks like she will get a mile, even though it's not certain on pedigree (she had the speed to win over 5f and is by Iffraaj out of a 7f winner), so it's not surprising she has shortened up in the Guineas betting. Kiyoshi's tendency to hang to her right under pressure is rather worrying. Tapestry could still turn out to be the best of these in the longer term.
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After a couple of furlongs I was thinking Rizeena was feeling the effects of her busy campaign and congratulating myself on not backing her, then approaching the line I was thinking wtf didn't I back her
 . I disagreed when some said last year's was a poor renewal but I'm sure this year's was worse. I'll be surprised if any of them prove good enough to win the Guineas unless it's a poor edition. Also have to say, Spencer is probably the last jockey I'd want on a horse with a tendency to swerve, not that it made any difference to the result, imo. |
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Agree about Spencer (the stewards have relegated Kiyoshi to third). I thought it looked a high quality Moyglare beforehand and I'm sure that the first three are all very smart, as they have come a few lengths clear of some very useful fillies.
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Encouraging remarks from Joey in that they feel anything this year is a bonus. Hope to see her fill her frame over the Winter and relish the trip on the rowley mile next May. I'm even more confident now than I was before todays race.
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Perhaps set a really strong pace and the winning time (1m 22.91s) was very fast, which backs up the visual impression that this was a high class renewal.
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I'll do my figures after next 2 races as still a 7f hcap to go but yes early indications are could be a decent time figure.
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Tapestry for me, out of that race, for 8F next time out in Fillies Mile at Newmarket, then onto same venue for 1000 Guineas.
JOB was done up like a kipper by Kiyoshi, and was showing signs of having more petrol left c/w the other two passing the post. 10/1 for the Guineas looks a fair price after that Group 1, and should look even better after the Fillies Mile. Rizeena a worthy adversary come May 14,I thought it rode a good race, but would think Tapestry is the better classic prospect of the 3. Pity Carla Bianca didn't show more toe, but not given up on her for the Oaks. |
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Official time doesn't compare that greatly to the 7f handicap, bearing in mind the 8lbs less carried, suggests they all ran extremely close to their previous marks. Others might disagree but still an ordinary renewal for me.
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yes I agree Figgis, Rizeena has run pretty close to her QM figure and similar for Tapestry, Kiyoshit below her figure.
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oops sorry, don't know how that t got there. wd on the lay figgis btw
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Ta, Stevie. I was a bit too eager to say I'll be surprised if any of them can win the Guineas, it's still the best 2yo filly form around (apart from Lucky Kristale who still has stamina to prove), any of them could improve further and next year's might not be a great Guineas. Those who are on at big prices are still in a good position. I just suspect we'll probably see some better form before the year's out so I wouldn't be interested in backing them.
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I was forgetting Sandiva, I'd rate her best form slightly above today's race, very little in it, though.
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Actually I have Rizeena running to 110 after wfa which is 2lb above her QM win. Kiyoshi 108 which 6lb below my revised Albany win. Tapestry 107 which is actually 1lb above her last win, I thought it was 108 last time but looking back it was 106. Great White Eagle 108 earlier.
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Deepingfox- I think your right in regards the Weld filly. Lovely long term prospect over staying distances.Everything happening a bit too quickly today.
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hello
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thought they went a good pace in the Moyglare, but am going to get a modest figure, none of the front three improving on what they have achieved before.
Different day, different conditions, but Terrific was only 0.12 secs slower in a fillies conditions event over CD last weekend Messy race with Spencer playing bumper cars, but only want to be with one filly out of that lot at 1m+ in the future, Tapestry. |
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The winning time was more than a second quicker than the 7f handicap and Rizeena was carrying only 8lbs less than the winner of that race. According to the official WFA scale, a two-year-old is entitled to receive 27lbs from a mature horse. The handicap winner was running off a mark of 76 and won snugly enough to suggest that he should now be rated at least 80. I don't calculate my own speed figures, but surely this was a very smart time performance by Rizeena. The first three home are all very highly regarded and pulled clear of three very useful opponents. In my opinion, it was the best two-year-old fillies' race of the season so far. But Figgis is right: we may see an even better performance before the season's end. It's still all to play for, with the Cheveley Park Stakes, Fillies' Mile and Prix Marcel Boussac still to come.
Royalmania looked a really smart filly on debut the other day and I'm looking forward to seeing how she performs next time (in the Prix d'Aumale and/or Prix Marcel Boussac). |
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If anyone wants any encouragement for Kiyoshi (I do ;) ) then the shape of the race is relevant IMO.
6f spread across Ascot's wide track in a large field is quite different to a hard 7f with O'Brien pacemakers & a rough bumping finish at the Curragh. I had no bet today but given that the Guineas might well be on a wide track with a large field i'd not give up all hope just yet. She'd also been off too long really, 72 days, and can be expected to come on a little from that. To temper my slight enthusiasm despite the defeat I think Spencer is a genius over 6f and particularly at Ascot. So that may have enhanced her run, and that day 3 winners all came careering through from the back too IIRC, maybe she benefitted from track bias that day... |
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The time Of the Albany wasn't great when compared with the other race on the straight track won by Lighning Cloud but I originally made it that the track had speeded up by around 1.2s per mile which seems crazy now. It definitely quickened up but not by that much. So it does look like the pace just collapsed at Ascot for that race and kiyoshi was given a Spencer master class like jair says. but I'm still sticking with my 114 but that 121 I originally went with was stupid. but horses kept coming out of the race and improving their ratings or equalling them so I never saw fit to change it.
but a lesson learned there for me. |
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Rizeena top of my shortlist for the 1000 Gns after that.
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