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1000 GUINEAS (2014)
1000 GUINEAS (2014)
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Replies: 959
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This just for Harry.
 Looked at the runners for the first time today so have no "all green" book for you to interrogate. The "clock" horses are Tapestry and Rizeena for what it`s worth, I never trust fillies to replicate form over the Winter. Have put Tapestry in an each-way Lucky Fifteen and if they all lose I will have lost a round of drinks from my 2000 Guineas winnings. |
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Gone in heavy on Sandiva who I think is overpriced along with Princess Noor. Good luck all
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very tricky...but I've backed Ihtimal and Sandiva.
Both win only. |
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out go...numbers on racecard
1(nr),2,3,4,8,9,13,14,16, That's four of first six in betting gone (as far as the winner is concerned) I've a problem with Ihtimal because of the 10f win in Meydan. Normally 8f is maximum win distance. I'm not aware of any winner coming from winter racing in Dubai. They tried with Devotee in 2009 and I may have missed another I'm not aware of. Problem with Sandiva on basis that the three past Nell Gwyn winners managed a win or 2nd placing in Grp 2 or Gp 1 race and Sandiva has only decent Grp 3 runs. Also Lucky Crystal won the Lowther. The criteria is placed at Gp 1 level and Lucky K has won two Grp 2 races. It's a tight call on this one though. Lightning Thunder who scores highly so far was placed in Rockfel and that race produced 17 qualifiers who ran in Gns failed to win Up until last year no 6f winner that ran over 8f had won. That stat was broken by Sky Thunder but may effect Joyeuse, Lucky Krystale, Princess Noor and Vorda. So what's left? MAJEYDA and TAPESTRY |
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Ground is g/f with little give ,stick with ihtimal but tricky now gl
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feltfair
 all good funanyone like this euro charline here...really think this is tight but if she does progress after getting bounced allover newmarket last time she may just improve a bit...horrible betting race very tight knit |
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My first and only (I think) contribution to this thread.
Rizeena for me is well ahead on my figs and is a decent price. Savers on Fabre's and Tapestry |
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My first and only (I think) contribution to this thread.
Rizeena for me is well ahead on my figs and is a decent price. Savers on Fabre's and Tapestry |
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Money seems to be flying in for Ihtimal
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wd Miss France backers
Very good thread james |
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great thread james thread, and cracking race for viewing purposes
 . oh so sharp win was good marker. |
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well done miss france pickers - Ihtimal not a bad run in third .
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Oh well, I fancied Rizeena since last autumn, but Miss France was also in the reckoning since last year as well.
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Use were told - anyone watching that last race (slowly run) she ran in thinking it was no good, listen to what trainer said, it was used as a trial for the 1000 - shes diff speed, up with the pace in a truely run race and nutted the line loverly juberlee
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The steady early pace meant that it paid to be handily positioned rather than held up at the back of the field. Full marks therefore to Maxime Guyon, who had the winner in what turned out to be the perfect position (in spite of the trainer's instructions to hold her up in midfield!), tracking the pacesetting Manderley. Miss France promises to be even better over an extra couple of furlongs. Lightning Thunder ran a blinder, proving that her Rockfel run was all wrong, and might have prevailed if she had raced slightly more handily.
Rizeena was a bit disappointing and this looked some way below her best form of last season: Clive has made a slow start to the season and his horses have yet to hit form. Vorda raced a bit keenly through the early stages and was given too much to do; there's still every chance that she will get a mile. Joyeuse was similarly given too much to do and didn't last home. Lucky Kristale pulled hard and had no chance of lasting the mile on this occasion. There was clearly something amiss with the well-backed Tapestry, who was virtually pulled up. Bracelet failed to progress from her reappearance win and probably wants slower ground and a longer trip. It turned out to be a horrible betting race for antepost punters, with so many fancied runners (plus a number of fancied fillies that were withdrawn close to the race) and no stand-out form. On the whole, it was quite a good result for trends followers, as the winner was a highly rated and progressive Group race winner as a juvenile (and therefore fitted the usual profile for this race established over recent decades). Well done to all those who backed the winner. |
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Thank GOD Miss France held on & won the 1000gns 2day
 Would have made it a great wkend had Kingman done the same in yest 2000gns  Glad a stood by my view that Miss France`s trial was a farce of a "race" & to just draw a line through it. Looks a very gd filly & will get further in time (10f). |
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Thanks Jamesp for a great thread. Intelligent discussion is live and well on the BF forum.
I look forward to the 2015 thread - I daresay it's only a few weeks away... |
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Great thread and well done to the Miss France backers
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Fascinating that Tapestry emulates her dam in looking great at 2 then running no race in the 1000 Guineas...
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wd James, Miller, Zilzal and any other backers. I personally thought she was a poor price!
There are some interesting post race comments about today. Clive Brittain is ''certain'' Rizeena is better than that and rues not running in a trial. AOB has said he made an error by running Tapestry as he left her ''light''. The runnings of War Command and Tapestry, combined with the weakness on here over the winter, and literally replica scenarios of what happened with Mastercraftsman and Misty For Me. Both to win the Irish Guineas?! |
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* are literally replica
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It's infuriating to read O'Brien's comments about leaving Tapestry 'light': how is it possible that he manages to get the filly 'too fit', then gives her an easy time by not giving her much work before the Guineas, then reveals after the race that he left her 'light'?? It's not the first time he's made a complete mess of preparing a filly for the Guineas. Sheer incompetence on his part. He should have expressed these concerns before the race or not run her at all (thereby saving day-of-the-race punters their cash).
Clive may be rueing the fact he didn't run Rizeena in a trial, so why did he change the successful route he took with Pebbles and Sayyedati?? Another filly that probably wasn't given the chance to show her true form. It makes the punter's job a whole lot harder if the trainers don't do their job properly!  |
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Brittain is notorious for overrating (and overfacing) his horses so whilst Rizeena had form, it's possible that she isn't as good as he thinks.
Regards O'Brien, similarly, his proclamations rarely bear good scrutiny. He says he left her 'light' WTF? He's taken to blaming himself for defeats recently and it's just meaningless chatter. Like I said, her dam bombed out in this race too, maybe she's not trained on? War Command was always prepping for Ireland. He seems to do this every year now with a likely type. Very frustrating but Mastercraftsman, Roderic O'Connor, Power all did the same... |
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We'll see how she runs next. If AOB didn't believe Tapestry was still a decent horse I doubt he would be saying those things. Now he has put pressure on himself to get ger right as people will be expecting improvement now.
Speaking at the Curragh, he said: "She was a little bit light and the trainer shouldn't have run her. She was fit here when we took her here to gallop and, although she worked well, I was a little bit worried she was too fit then. "Because of that I didn't do much work with her before the Guineas; I did two bits of work with her with Bracelet and she was a lot better. When she worked so well I let her run, but I had it in my head that she was too light and Joseph said she cantered down to the four [furlong marker] and he knew she wasn't going to win so he eased up on her. It was trainer error. "I'll give her a break and try to get the condition back on her then hopefully go again." |
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Remember, she was being layed at 30/1+ in the week previous so someone knew she was not going to be fit. Market is a great indicator re AOB's classic horses (ante-post). THEY gamble alright!
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I doubt if the owners fiddle with the small amounts available in the antepost market on Betfair, but perhaps some of the stable staff do. Anyway, it wouldn't surprise me now if Tapestry went on to win the Irish Guineas (if she's ready in time!) or the Coronation Stakes.
jair1970, Tapestry's dam Rumplestiltskin sustained a career-ending injury when she was beaten in the Guineas won by Speciosa; it's impossible to know for sure whether she trained on or not. |
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Yep I don't mean the owners but the stable staff definitely get involved.
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That Moyglare form is still suspect, in my view.
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Well figgis, the Moyglare form hasn't exactly been boosted by recent events (including Carla Bianca's disappointing display at Dundalk last month); on the other hand, Tapestry was clearly way below her Moyglare form in the Guineas, and I'm prepared to give Rizeena another chance: if she had managed to reproduce her Fillies' Mile form she would have been entitled to go close in the Guineas.
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Yes, I'm not suggesting that Tapestry ran anywhere near to her best and it's a run that can be forgotten, although O'Brien's Maybe never recaptured her form after disappointing in the Guineas. The Fillies Mile form may have been franked somewhat with the winner going on to win in America but it is still a bit shaky with the pace of the race being so slow. I still think Rizeena's best run was in the Queen Mary and I've not seen her repeat that since.
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Figgis,
How many pounds would an average 1000g winner be behind an averages 2000g winner on your figures? |
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Stevie, the average for my 2000g winners has gone up in recent years, even excluding Frankel from distorting the averages, whereas 1000g winners averages have remained very similar, although I had Sky Lantern a few pounds above average last year. I'd say usually the difference is anywhere between 6 and 10 pounds, if that helps.
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yes I'm thinking around 10lb myself, I can remember a few years ago before doing my own figures I thought Ghanaati had a decent chance against Rip Van Winkle and Paco Boy, not that I had a bet mind but she got well beat and I thought she must have run some way below form. Having gone back and done some figures since, I now think she wasn't quite as good as I thought she was at the time.
Again last year I gave a huge figure for Kiyoshi in the Albany after adjusting the allowance too much, but without many seasons of figures to go on I thought it was a plausible figure but now having gone back and rated many past albanys and other 2yo races I realised it wasn't. |
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SG, for me the average difference between the two sexes at the top end of the scale over a mile has been bigger in recent years, although Sky Lantern did manage to bridge the gap a bit last year. I don't know if this is just due to a good recent period for colts or if this is a long term trend, as it's remained the case for a few years now I suspect the latter.
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As for Ghanaati, I thought her Coronation Stakes win was an improvement on her Guineas victory and the fillies allowance gave her a good chance in the Sussex, I'm sure she ran below form in the event but I had RVW improving a bit for the drop back to a mile so in my opinion he would've beaten her even if she'd been on form.
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You do get these exceptional fillies coming along like Zarkava, Goldikova, black caviar and treve etc that can compete with and beat the best colts but they are normally way ahead of the other fillies around. Don't think I've seen a 3yo filly this season that will reach those levels.
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No me neither. I'm hoping Sky Lantern can make what I would call typical improvement from 3 to 4 this year, as I think she could be up with very good fillies/mares like Moonlight Cloud and Goldikova if she does. I never take such improvement for granted, though, and don't factor it in until I see proof.
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Did not like the look of Tapestry in the paddock before the 1000gns myself.
She looked very light behind the saddle for me, looked more like a greyhound than a racehorse imo. Would have concerns about her atm in that condition, looks like she needing a gd dinner (& plenty of). Thought Razeena ran like a filly just short of top fitness & looked like she had done well to my eye from 2/3yrs. Travelled well in behind the pace, just a touch keen (fresh). Would expect to see her take a gd step forward for the run & she could well be the one to beat in the Ire 1000gns. Will be interesting if the 2nd&3rd turn-up their to take her on. |
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Interesting stuff miller, those paddock views always very helpful and seems to back up what the trainers were saying.
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Lydia Hislop's view of Tapestry/Rizeena.
'' It was bizarre to see Tapestry backed into 4/1 favourite in the minutes prior to the off, given her far-from-appealing paddock appearance. I described her as "very fit, sparely made, lean". Her popularity was probably more a product of the lack of confidence in any previous market leaders. She lost her position quickly in the Dip and was eased immediately. Trainer Aidan O'Brien has since stated that he regrets running her and plans to "give her a break and try to get the condition back on her". She must be a doubtful Oaks runner. To my mind, her appearance and demeanour only lend weight to my concern that, like her dam and siblings, she has not trained on. Stablemate Bracelet, who finished 14th, did not enhance her Oaks claims as I expected. She looked well in her coat and was relaxed beforehand but got outpaced and made little impact. She may well stay 12 furlongs but she isn't good enough on this showing. Rizeena was on her toes, sweating and then increasingly edgy in the paddock prior to her seasonal debut in the Guineas. She was a little keen in the race and could only keep on at the one pace. She may be more effective short of a mile. Neither pedigree nor temperament offers Oaks encouragement.'' |