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1000 GUINEAS (2014)
1000 GUINEAS (2014)
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The ground at Newbury ahead of Saturday's Fred Darling Stakes is currently soft (good to soft in places), but no rain is forecast in the next few days, so it could well dry out by the weekend. Frankie Dettori is down to ride either Al Thakhira or Sandiva, with the ground likely to dictate which one of them will run. The other main contenders appear to be Queen Catrine and Joyeuse.
Tom Segal reveals his selection for the 1000 Guineas in tomorrow's Racing Post. |
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Queen Catrine put up some solid performances
last season,but I think her main aim is the French 1000G.Hope she turns up at Newmarket, though,if she is up to that class. |
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All the signs point to Amazing Maria being Tom Segal's selection tomorrow. I thought he might pick Vorda, but Amazing Maria's price has been cut by all bookmakers this afternoon and she's now 14/1 across the board. Miss France is weak in the market (out to 8/1 today with a couple of firms). Rizeena is proving popular and her odds have been further trimmed: she's now generally 6/1 and 7/1 (joint-favourite in some lists). My Titania has also been cut and is now generally 8/1, which looks extremely short.
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yes must be, but yesterdays 2000 g tip hardly made a difference to the exchange market
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the race Amazing Maria won at goodwood,
2nd and 3rd haven't done much for the form,both been well beat since that race. |
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backed her big time lst year in one rce that dettori rode stinker on her
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in fact that Goodwood form don't
seem that strong to me at all. |
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I agree, penzance, the Goodwood form looks suspect.
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Is R Moore booked to ride Rizeena ?
If so, that would be a big plus in my book. He did ride her in work a couple of wks ago. |
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I suspect he'll have something for Stoute .. Radiator? If not, then yeah it would be nice if he got to ride her over AOB's second string. Failing that i'd be happy with Neil Callan as Jack Doyle might have to ride something for Abdullah.
James, what is you opinion on Folk Melody? Trainer is talking her up, maiden form looks fair, and is nicely related. More of a middle distance type? |
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She is set to run in the Nell Gwyn next week.
Speaking of the Nell Gwyn .. anyone know what the plans are for Hot Snap this season? Still in-training.. |
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Is Radiator not an Abdullah filly sint (J Doyle would ride) The only other filly of Stoutes to come to mind is Along Again (I think its called).
Hopefully Moore is free to ride Rizeena. |
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@sint - I'm sure Jack Doyle is available but equally sure you won't want him riding.
Whilst Amazing Maria may be the pick, I think there is a lot of blue because bookies use it as an opportunity to generally tighten prices and it has effect of attracting business. As regards Hot Snap, I think she got shipped to the U.S. |
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Joyeuse is for Abdullah too come to think of it so Doyle won't be available. If Ryan Moore rides, which seems possible given the fact he has been riding her at home, then she could go off favourite.
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 roo. Whoops. I mean James Doyle. |
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If Henry was still around, I'd still have some hope for Joyeuse. Cannot help think she was sent to the wrong races at the end of last season and that doesn't fill me with any confidence
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There has been so much trimming of prices today, I'm not so sure now that Amazing Maria will be Tom Segal's selection. Maybe it was Sir Robert's money that was driving down the price today!! It doesn't seem to take much money for the bookmakers to dive for cover at this time of year.... Anyway, we'll know soon enough.
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Rizeena?
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I've not seen today's RP yet. Has he picked Rizeena, sint??
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Lucky Kristale and Rizeena!
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Clive keeps talking about taking on the Colts. If he thinks she is that good then she's a good thing for the 1000.
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If she was that good doubt she would
have been beaten 4 times. |
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True.
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Sandiva going straight to the Guineas now. I have my wedge firmly placed
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Or the Nell Gwyn rather - http://www1.skysports.com/horse-racing/news/12426/9257154/sandiva-heads-to-nell-gwyn-for-1000-guineas-trial
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sintonian • April 8, 2014 6:55 PM BST
James, what is you opinion on Folk Melody? Trainer is talking her up, maiden form looks fair, and is nicely related. More of a middle distance type? Yes, absolutely. She's by Street Cry out of a 12f winner by Singspiel, so 10-12f should be her trip this year. She's highly regarded ('one of the nicest fillies we have') and was due to run in a Listed race in the autumn (I think the same race they won with Blue Bunting a few years ago), but they decided to retire her for the season. I gather that she's a possible for the Nell Gwyn next week. |
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yep, not a fan of Street Cry really but Folk Opera was quite decent and ran in Oaks trial. I've had a few quid on here £7 at 100/1 for the Oaks.
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Just hope for Good ground.
Clive Brittain has reaffirmed his belief Rizeena could be one of the best horses he has trained ahead of the QIPCO 1000 Guineas at Newmarket on May 4. 1000 Guineas. Click here to bet. Rizeena: Brittain thinks she's got talent Related ContentLive horse racing resultsRacecards and formLatest video formWatch top live sports events with Sky TicketsSky Bet: Best Odds GuaranteedFree £30 matched bet Brittain has had plenty of top-class performers pass through his hands during a superb training career, particularly fillies, with Pebbles (1984) and Sayyedati (1993) his two previous winners of the fillies' Classic. Rizeena won four times from eight starts as a juvenile, including victories in the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot and the Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh, and she was last seen chasing home the ill-fated Chriselliam in the Fillies' Mile. Profiles C E Brittain Rizeena (IRE) With Ryan Moore expected to ride the talented filly on the Rowley Mile next month, confidence is high in the Brittain camp. He said: "I couldn't have her in better condition - her coat, her skin and eyes - and she's ready to do the business on May 4. "I decided not to have a prep run because of the manner she worked and Ryan's comments. "I'm hoping Ryan Moore rides and he's hoping to. She's done very well over the winter and she's fit enough to run now if I wanted her to. "I am very excited and when one comes along which makes your heart miss a beat, it's great. She's got a great temperament and she's ready to go. She can have a two-week hold-up now and will still be fit. "She's got a great turn of foot and a very good stride pattern and everything you could want from a racehorse. "All the signs are that she's one of the best I've had but she's got to go and do it on a race day." Rizeena also remains among the entries for the 2000 Guineas and while the fillies' equivalent remains her objective at this stage, Brittain stopped short of ruling out a run against the colts. "The decision is made about the 1000 Guineas but she's also entered in the 2000, but something would have to make me change my mind," said the Newmarket trainer. "I couldn't see anything among the colts that is outstanding and if the colts are weak, I could run her on May 3 and it wouldn't bother me one bit." Brittain has already began to map out Rizeena's campaign beyond Newmarket. He said: "The plan is the English Guineas, the Irish Guineas, the Coronation Stakes and possibly the Nassau. "She's also got the option for the Oaks and 'option' is the key word." |
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Sint, as you said, Al Thakhira is entered for the Fred Darling, and now Dettori has been booked. Even though I probably rated her Rockfel win a bit higher than most I think it's fair to say most would see her as having a decent chance of winning or at least going close. I see RPR and Topspeed ratings have her top rated. She also looks like getting her supposedly favoured ground and if she did win her Guineas price would be sure to contract, even if only marginally. Despite this she is being offered on here at prices up to and over 50/1 when the books are around 16/1. She went off fav on debut and 2nd fav for the Rockfel so it's not as if she has been a complete surprise to connections. As I said before this is a stable that, imo, has more influence in the betting market about their runners than the average yard. Who offers 50/1 about a 16/1 chance? In my experience it's usually somebody in the know.
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They won't run Al Thakhira on fast ground, so she's likely to skip Newmarket unless there is some cut in the ground. The French Guineas is the obvious alternative target for her. Paddy Power's prices for the Fred Darling look about right and reflect the official ratings for the main contenders: Al Thakhira (107) 5/2, Joyeuse (104) 4/1, Coral Mist (99) 6/1, Valonia (98) 7/1, 12/1 bar. I'm looking forward to seeing Joyeuse: she won't mind a bit of cut in the ground and the hood will be back on for the first time since the Albany.
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Offering more than treble the odds just on the possibility that Newmarket will be fast ground? Maybe it's a layer skilled in weather forecasting but my bet is still on someone with more information than has been given out
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I'm sure the connections won't have made up their mind yet. They don't need to decide until much nearer the time. All they've said is that she wants cut and will go wherever the ground is suitable.
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Maybe, but far more often than not when somebody goes out on a limb about a price on here (and let's face it, offering 50's for a 16/1 chance isn't just taking a view) I've found that the layer has an uncanny knack of events going in their favour. It will be interesting to see the market confidence on Saturday.
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And the other side of the coin with a yard notable for market influence is that if it isn't somebody with inside knowledge offering the generous odds then why is nobody on the inside interested in taking the perceived value? Probably because they don't perceive it as such.
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I have Al Thakhira top rated for the FD and I'd have an average guineas winner around 110 on my ratings.
My top 3 are Al Thakhira 102 Joyeuse 98 J wonder 95 Al Thakira is definitely the one to beat on that Rockfel run but in the RP analysis on the Rockfel race it mentioned Botti was worried she might not train on as she hadn't grown much. Joyeuse is not far behind on my figures and with the hood back on to help her settle and with the cut in the ground looking to suit her then I think she could run to a figure in the low 100s no problem. J Wonder does need to improve a bit more on her Newmarket nursery win but she was quite impressive that day ans Meehan said she was unsuited to the firm ground at the Curragh and I do think she could run to around 100 odd if she has progressed. She's a full sister to ChaichaiMaidee who progressed well. Coral Mist does look quite progressive but I only gave her an 88 at Ayr so still has to improve some more. However I think another progressive one Dutch Courage may be a bigger danger. Anyway the 6s to me looks too big about Joyeuse and J wonder looks half tempting at 12s but could see her trading bigger. I can't get on with any of those books anyhow so will wait til the day and see how the market looks then. |
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hello
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My post didn't go through, that's twice now.
It was just my thoughts on the FD, I give up. |
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The significant races the winning filly had run in before the Guineas
Sky Lantern 2yo - Solera (G3), Prestige (G3), Moyglare (G1), Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) 3yo - Nell Gwyn (G3) Ran in 7 races before the Guineas Homecoming Queen 2yo - Weld Park Stakes (G3), Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) 3yo - Lodge Park (G3), Leopardstown 1000 Guineas Trial (G3) Ran in 13 races before she the Guineas Blue Bunting 2yo - Contested 3 races, won a listed 3yo - Unraced Ran in 3 races before the Guineas Special Duty 2yo - Prix Robert Papin (G2), Prix Morny (G1), Cheveley Park (G1) 3yo - Prix Imprudence (G2) Ran in 5 races before the Guineas Ghanaati 2yo - Couple of maidens 3yo - Unraced Ran in 2 races before the Guineas Natagora 2yo - Prix Du Bois (G3), Prix Robert Papin (G2), Prix Morny (G1), Cheveley Park (G1) 3yo - Prix Imprudence (G2) Ran in 8 races before the Guineas Finsceal Beo 2yo - Prix Marcel Boussac (G1), Rockfel (G2) 3yo - Unraced Ran in 5 races before the Guineas Speciosa 2yo - May Hill (G2), Rockfel (G2) 3yo - Nell Gwyn (G3) Ran in 7 races before the Guineas Virginia Waters 2yo - Weld Park (G3) 3yo - Leopardstown 1000 Guineas Trial (G3) Ran in 5 races before the Guineas Attraction 2yo - Queen Mary (G3), Cherry Hinton (G2) 3yo - Unraced Ran in 5 races before the Guineas 8/10 had run in at least 5 races before the Guineas 8/10 had run in a Group Race |
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The above might need checking for accuracy, which is never a bad thing
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ah my post at 21.49 has appeared now, must have been a word in there that meant it had to go through a moderator, I suspect one of the trainers names.
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