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king george chase kempton 2012
king george chase kempton 2012
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Replies: 432
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love it when people say exactly what will happen and that there's no competition when we haven't reached Christmas yet
on both the Feltham and Betfair form you would have to give Silviniaco Conti a very fair chance of being capable of beating Bobs Worth to name just one horse that could win the Gold Cup |
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I see where you are coming from with TB budd but now PFN has mentioned him for the WH with BB missing it
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Conti is just as solid as bobsworth they'll finish 1 2 in the gold cup.
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Flem,SDC and Bobsworth will be the first 3 home,unless its soft/heavy in which case TB beats the lot of them.
Think we will get the winner if we keep this up lads  Seriously,it looks a good season this one. |
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Yeh ive had a nibble for the WH Roo,on the strength of his trainer quote.
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oh yes it looks a very strong season indeed, certainly on this side of the Irish sea
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nice one judo |
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followed judo in with Vic on Cue Card for Gold Cup.
Only downside is if he finishes 4th or worse in Gold Cup. As short as 11/2 for the Ryanair but 33/1 for Gold Cup does n't make sense for a horse trading as low as 4/1 for mid season 3 mile chase championship race. No bet in King George yet - will wait for final decs now. |
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Really don't fancy Cue Card (ground/trip, trainer/jockey) and at the prices I'm almost tempted to do a very rare 'lay'.
Given the likely going Long Run is very solid but too short for me. As much as I love Henderson / Gerraghty I just don't fancy Riverside Theatre or Finians. Kauto Stone is still a fair price at 12/1 and can see him running well - with the Nichols/Walsh connection can see him going off much shorter. SDC would still be my idea of the winner if he runs, but if the ground doesn't get too horrendous then Champion Court @ 33/1 looks the value play to me. |
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SDC price very volatile this evening. I've topped up. May be foolish but would be value IF he runs. Difficult to read much into these changes at this stage.
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would be great if SDC did rock up at Kempton, would help unravel lots of stuff
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a serious question......... did any posters get the big prices on cue card on here early doors ?
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My gut feeling was that flemenstar wouldn't want to go any further than 2.4 ish,think he may turn out to be the next rubi light (but better) and going back further, native upmanship, specialist 2.4 horse, he is an absolutely fantastic jumper though.
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Am I only one who strongly fancies Riverside Theatre for the KG then?
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yes
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That's the way I like it
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Latest ratings:
Long Run 92% Captain Chris 62% Kauto Stone 61% Sizing Europe 56% Wishfull Thinking 54% Riverside Theatre 53% First Lieutenant 52% Grands Crus 50% Hunt Ball 50% Finian´s Rainbow 48% Wayward Prince 45% The Giant Bolster 44% Nacarat 41% Albertas Run 35% Champion Court 35% Cue Card 35% Menorah 35% Cristal Bonus 34% For Non Stop 34% Sir Des Champs 34% Long Run still thw absolute stand out horse for me. Two potentially well fancied horses who are not great on the trends are Cue Card and Sir Des Champs, and I'd want to be against them at shortish prices on that basis. |
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yes indeed if the trends stand up the Long Run will be the one
however over the years going back to the 80s there are quite a few winners that don't fit the current 10 year trends which are slightly skewed by Kauto Star. See More Business, Kicking King, First Gold and even Desert Orchid all failed on several of the current key trends when winning the KG for the first time. The one thing they all had in common was obvious signs of class, a recent run and mostly a win last time out. If Long Run doesn't win then it is inevitable that some of the trends will not be met. That says to me either long Run wins or one of the unexposed types will as the likes of Riverside Theatre, Wishful Thinking, First Lieutenant, Wayward Prince et al seem unlikely winners at this stage in their careers. Fascinating stuff! |
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Interesting thoughts on Cue Card Judge. He is bred to stay 3 miles as well, i have always liked the horse very much and may have been hasty to dismiss him based on him being a non stayer. I personally think the King George would be the easier race for SDC simply as in the Lexus he would have to reverse a 5 length beating from Flemenstar which is possible especially stepping up in trip but he still has to worry about reversing form with a horse who beat him so easily last time. Whereas in the King George he would bring a fresh form angle. Cue Card is classy but might not stay, Grands Crus might not even run, i can't see Captain Chris or Riverside Theatre reversing form with Long Run which if that proved to be the case might effectively leave SDC only having to beat Long Run who we don't know will reproduce his best form. It would make sense to run First Lieutenant in the Lexus and SDC in the King George (or even vice versa) but we will see what connections decide.
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Really interesting now that the rain has come. I would not put anyone off Riverside Theatre now as an alternative to Long Run.
Riverside Theatre has won 2 races on soft ground `easily` Now an 8 year old and has probably developed more stamina than when beaten by Long Run 2 years ago. Don`t forget he blundered the 13th so perhaps the 12L defeat could have been halved. Has 4 victories around Kempton in NH flat, hurdle and 2 chase victories. He looks the value to me. If Long Run has regressed a few pounds then he is a big price. |
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Absolutely slashed down all night down South,if Kempton got that its gotta be heavy now,and more rain at the weekend due.
Personally would not mind a repeat of Long Runs win,a day out in January. Thats if it EVER gets any drier!! |
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On reflection I agree that RT has a good chance - the key is that he goes best fresh, won't mind the going, and as long as Gerraghty is on board he should be 2nd fav (assuming SDC doesn't run). Took some 7/1+ on here this morning, if SDC doesn't show up I might go in again.
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hell of a lot of rain coming in the next few days ,going could well be heavy come boxing day , obviously it will not suit a lot of horses ,could turn it into a lottery as to who is least hinderd by the ground !
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"@Graeme83..... Do not want to sound like a smart a.se but Willie Mullins is one shrewd operator(and not, by being a smart a.se} champion trainer in Ireland by a long way.He is also a thorough gentleman."
That's nothing to do with my point. If he is smart, which i'm sure he probably is, then the smartness is more associated with how he trains horses, and not the last minute decision games, which are futile in this instance. He knows who is running where, and he knows where his horse is going. The decision he makes will have no bearing on where others go. They all have their targets. It's obvious to me the horse will be going for the Lexus, and i jsut hope not too many people waste money on backing the horses without a concession, as Boyles go NRNB, and if i remember correctly, he was on their payroll to write articles. |
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Junior supp'ed
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I think the key thing for Riverside Theatre is that if you look at his win in the Ryanair, he wins that DESPITE not going a yard that day. He'd had a year out and came back and won the Ascot Chase the month before. I think he bounced, and hated the undulations at Cheltenham, and STILL won the Ryanair!
I'm not sure Long Run is as good as he was 2 years ago when he beat RT into 2nd in this race, but I am 100% confident that RT is a better horse than he was then. I'd prefer it not to be bottomless, but am not worried about soft and think it places at worst. I'm on at 9s and 3 for a place. |
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unsurprisingly H de B has announced Sizing Europe will stay at home and misses the KG
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/horse-racing/20798673 |
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rain eased around mid day in my part of london and stopped about 4 hours ago more forcast and my guess would be soft on boxing day ,but i am a punter and not a weather forecaster so could be wide of the mark ! would be happy with soft !
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Rain forecast Saturday,sunday,monday and wednesday Foyles,i think you would be well happy with soft,considering its soft now mate.
Not sure how it affects bets,but personally i hope it gets called off and run in January. At least then we might have more chance of a proper race with more runners,rather than the slog that looks like happening on boxing day,with less runners. |
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kauto stone cut can see him going off 2nd fav on the day. cue card fans will be best to wait as he'll certainly be drifting. tgb might be interesting with the slower ground. long run I'm sure will be suited by the ground aswell. Bar that iI can't see anything else getting involved. They should of supplemented tidal bay imo
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Christ,Tidal Bay would love that on Wednesday for sure,
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"Rain forecast Saturday,sunday,monday and wednesday Foyles,i think you would be well happy with soft,considering its soft now mate."
What would happen with AP bets if it was called off ? |
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anyone know what would happen to ante post bets on here if it was called off ?
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Well normally bets would be voided i would think,but as the race will be rescheduled i aint sure to be honest.
Cant remember what happened to bets 2 years ago when it was re run in January |
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dont think i was on here then budd but if it is re run at a later date it would be a lot of messing about voiding bets !
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Bets will probably stand if abandoned unless the King George is rearranged to a different course. Chances are they'll run it at the Racing Post Trophy meeting anyway, so bets would stand.
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Depends on whether the race is reopened. If it is, then bets would certainly be voided and a new market formed. I think this is normally what happens. If the race is restricted to those current entries, there's no need to void anything.
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Anyone recall what happened 2 years ago?
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From the rules:
All relevant bets will be void where an event is: abandoned and not rescheduled; or postponed and rescheduled to another venue; or postponed and rescheduled to another day at the same venue with entries for the race being reopened or reverting back to a previous entry or declaration stage provided any additional horses are entered or re-entered and such entries or declarations are considered, in Betfair’s absolute discretion, material to the betting on the race. For the avoidance of doubt, where a race is postponed and rescheduled to another day at the same venue, relevant bets will stand where entries/declarations at the time of postponement remain unaltered or include any non-material addition(s) prior to the rescheduled race. |
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Do u guys down there think postponement is on the cards? It's wet up here (Glasgow) but not exceptionally so.
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