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king george chase kempton 2012

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Replies: 432
By:
roobuck
When: 17 Dec 12 20:49
hope so foyles, took a small punt on it before the market reacted.

Bizarrely my main bet, Captain Chris is now 4th favourite Shocked
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 17 Dec 12 21:26
me too on sir des champs about a week or 2 ago ! have a few at big prices but as they say more the merrier !
By:
Eeternaloptimist
When: 17 Dec 12 21:26
I think they will do what is in the horses best interests. I don't think they were sweating on Al Ferof coming out and are now chomping at the bit.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 17 Dec 12 21:39
w.mullins said (quote )at some irish horses do that "its very tempting as the lexus is an unlucky race for him ,may be more tempted now but who knows !
By:
unclepuncle
When: 18 Dec 12 02:15
Another angle - It seemed to me that Mullins was aiming to run him (if it stayed soft which seems likely) in the 2m1f Dial-A-Bet race at Leopardstown but with Sizing Europe staying at home for that he is now most unlikley to be winning it so Kempton may now be favoured?.
By:
Graeme83
When: 18 Dec 12 14:19
I don't think he will go to Kempton, even though it's the race that makes sense. I would say they would want to test First Lieutenant and Weapons Amnesty against Flemenstar, and see what happens over the longer distance. The Dial-a-bet is another option, but it's maybe on the short side. Gigginstown haven't had a great deal to shout about recently, so the King George looks to be a decent opportunity, then give him the track off until mid March. That way they could test both sides of the Sea, and try and pick up something along the way. As for Boyles going NRNB, it's an advertisement and ring fencing of you betting money until Christmas.
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 18 Dec 12 14:55
I no i said on another thread that i agreed with BUDD in that i didn't like LR with counterfeit, that i thought he has left his career behind with a Cheltenham gold cup win and 2 hard battles against a revived Kauto Star and that i could not have him for this years King George for those reasons.
With the defection of Al ferof, i finding myself more and more inclined to side with LR and actually beginning to think that the races complexion has actually changed so much that i cannot see any thing else beating this amazing but bad jumping plodder!

Do i need therapy to start to think this way, just on the defection of one horseConfused

I was before the defection of Alf thinking about backing Alf, cue card, kauto stone, riverside theatre and one of the rags on the day e/way at top price 1/4 odds a place, thinking cue card might take them along and hope one of the others ive backed might come through to win with me also having a place behind to collect. (have done this all through the last few seasons and it actually works so well)
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 18 Dec 12 15:00
Also, there really is no point crying over the fact people had the chance to backing said horses earlier on before the defections, i was going to back cue card e.g a month ago when he was 10/1 but didnt, actually have not had a bet in the race yet. But would take 9/2 now as the race has changed alot since i would love to have that voucher now but cant do anything about it. The race has changed, the chances of him winning this race have increased you could argue and at the moment, he is slightly shorter than those odds on here.
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 18 Dec 12 15:07
sorry for the many posts

Way am thinking, is, and i will still back it, but if CueCard takes them along, he prob wont be winning it! RT could win it, but was 10+ lengths behind LR and KS last time, i wish i could remember whether it was after then that hendo said he came back with a problem or was miles after, sir des champs would not be without a chance, but hes irish, lol, kauto stone, nice price will have an e.w voucher but its long runs form figs at kempton for me that does it. Could win this doing hand springs but please don't cos your jumpings bad enough Surprised
By:
duffy
When: 18 Dec 12 15:08
cue cards inclusion is a dream for long run, he'll take them along at a good lick (the horse will see to that), he'll be unconscious turning in if not earlier...along with all the other non-stayers, which is practically everything else running!!
By:
duffy
When: 18 Dec 12 15:16
I'll probably live to regret it, but CC currently trading at 9/2 on here for a 3 mile championship raceLaughShockedShocked
By:
Hibore
When: 18 Dec 12 18:07
Cue Card is the clear form choice ....Isn't he ?

If you stay 2.5m around Exeter then you should easily stay 3m around Kempton. Not many horses that win bumpers don't stay 3+ miles in the long term..

The only horse to beat him levels is Sprinter. His form is second only to LR who may be on the downgrade.

I think he is a big price at 9/2.
By:
buddeliea
When: 18 Dec 12 18:08
Well ive gone through the field since my two main fancies are now non runners(AF AND SE)and cannot see a winner!! Obviously something has to win,but i cant name him,so i aint gonna bother.
I shall watch the race with interest still,but wont be betting,unless on the day something at a big price appeals e/w.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 18 Dec 12 18:20
unless you are on at decent prices the value seems a bit thin on the ground ,2 come to mind but both have risks attached ,sir deschamps is a big price on here and if he runs will be much shorter ,but will he come over ? the vibes are quite encouraging and mullins has said he is 50/50 so could be worth the chance ,the other ata big price on here is finians rainbow not a certain runner but would have every chance of getting the trip and has the class but with this stable also a big risk .
By:
aft
When: 18 Dec 12 18:26
Don't forget CC -
No not Cue Card, but Champion Court!
By:
ACStafford
When: 18 Dec 12 18:27
What has Henderson said about Finnians? I'd be surprised if Geraghty picked Riverside over him, were he to run. RT's a good horse but isn't quite good enough to win this, whereas FR probably hated that ground at Ascot.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 18 Dec 12 18:35
yeah champion court has his chance but if sir des champs runs then cc has a bit to find ,could well find enough but finians is a massive price how he could be double the price of sizing euro before that one was withdrawn is beyond me ! ther is nothing between them and finians is beign overlooked cos of 1 run in bad ground !
By:
Swagger
When: 18 Dec 12 18:36
From a betting perspective the two defections are most frustrating as in my opinion Sizing Europe wouldn't have stayed on a motorbike and i don't understand how anyone could have fancied Al Ferof given his run at Ascot last season, yes he was a novice and entitled to improve etc, but if he was top class he would have run better than he did. It was a visually impressive run in the Paddypower but it was bottomless ground and take out Grands Crus who couldn't breathe then it was a poor handicap - the form is questionable. I remember Tranquil Sea hosing up in a similar race on testing ground from Poquelin only to never reach the heights that performance suggested - bottomless ground often masks true form.

I saw Kauto Stone on course last season in the Tingle Creek and for me, he was a very unimpressive speciman, his form is average and i just can't see him having the class to win a King George. I like Cue Card as a horse but don't think he will stay 3 miles in a horse box.

For me the winner still comes from one of the three below but the market is tightening up all the time Sad

Sir Des Champs
Long Run
Grands Crus

Regulation race
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 18 Dec 12 18:41
for obvious reasons i want cue card to win and if you weigh up his form it is red hot, 2nd to sprinter sacre and beaten anose by bobs worth giving him 7lb but the value on him has gone now !
By:
Hibore
When: 18 Dec 12 18:49
I think the race may cut up into 7 or 8 runners. All with a chance on some line of form.

I don't take it that Cue Card won't stay because he is keen nonsense. He WAS very keen being held up in hurdle races but now is far more settled like he showed at Cheltenham and Exeter when running from the front.

If a novice runs over 2.5 miles (and is the best at it) why shouldn't he stay 3 miles a year later.

If he had won at 3 miles...did he look like stopping last time..? He would be 3/1 or 5/2.

His form is bullet proof !
By:
duffy
When: 18 Dec 12 18:52
That bobs worth run would concern me, yes he gave 7lbs, but he was race fit and over 2.4, he had a head start coming to the last and he was run down by a horse who shouldn't have been able to match him at the distance....and if they had 3 miles to go, it would have been far far worse still.
By:
duffy
When: 18 Dec 12 18:56
hibore, he never raced over 2.5 at exeter, it was 2.1, the furthest he's ever gone is 2.4 and he's 1 from 4 over it.
By:
duffy
When: 18 Dec 12 18:57
remember, they aren't running CC over 3c miles because they think this is the natural progression for him, they are doing it purely because they are running scared of SS at 2 miles...simple as that.
By:
Hibore
When: 18 Dec 12 19:00
Hi Duf, it you watch the race again Joe thinks he has the race won and almost stops CC coming to the last just to pop over. He lost all momentum and even though was a couple of lengths clear was caught close home. You can't really call it a poor run as Bobs was a stone better off even over a shorter trip in hindsight..

Kempton 3 miles is not far off Newbury 2.5 miles either.
By:
alleged22
When: 18 Dec 12 19:04
im not a LR fan but would any of these other horses get within 1 1/4 lengths of kauto star round kempton???? imo long run is nailed on! i was on AF and LR was imo the biggest danger
By:
buddeliea
When: 18 Dec 12 19:05
1 from 4 over 2m4,and now what price for a grade 1 3m race??.
No Thanks.

Its 3 furlong off Hibore.
By:
buddeliea
When: 18 Dec 12 19:07
Yeh alleged,as much as ive been downing his chances,i too think LR is now the most likely winner,if their is one!!

Too short though,so is CC.
By:
Hibore
When: 18 Dec 12 19:11
1 from 4 ? What are you going on about.

Who was the top 2.5 mile novice last year then ?
By:
buddeliea
When: 18 Dec 12 19:19
its quiet simple,
hes had 4 races at 2m4-2m5,and won one of them.
Hes never won at 2m5.
As for the top novice at 2m5,it aint Cue Card!!
By:
Leonardo
When: 18 Dec 12 19:32
Finian's confirmed by Henderson now
By:
johntucker
When: 18 Dec 12 19:39
SDC top 2m 4f nov last year no?
By:
buddeliea
When: 18 Dec 12 19:43
Well he has more claim to that than Cue Card.
By:
Hibore
When: 18 Dec 12 19:48
Did SDC not fancy it when thrashed by CC at Chepstow ?
By:
GoldCupWinner
When: 18 Dec 12 19:50
SDC has never even ran at Chepstow! Think you are getting confused Hibore.
By:
buddeliea
When: 18 Dec 12 19:51
eh??
whats going on here??
By:
GoldCupWinner
When: 18 Dec 12 19:58
Just looking at Cue Card's race record now. It is a bit harsh to vrab his 2m 4f-5f record. His form reads 1122 UR (when travelling well) over those distances. One 2nd was giving weight to the RSA and Hennessy winner and the other was at Aintree whe losing to  horse we never got to see how far he could go. He did finish in front of ROR.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 18 Dec 12 20:12
cue cards form is top class bobs worth,for non stop,sprinter all franked the form and the effort at newbury when he looked all over the winner but chinned by bobs worth ,most say he did not stay  but i dont take a lot of notice of that the horse is n.hunt bred and bred to stay, he travels and jumps and is improving and his form passes the closest inspection ,omwards and upwards !
By:
roobuck
When: 18 Dec 12 20:37
I agree that Cue Card looks like a horse that could improve for the step up in distance - not sure he is ready to do it on very soft ground though. And even if he could, the price on him is bordering on the ludicrous now.

Someone else mentioned another CC - Champion Court.

But the winner? CC - Captain Chris Wink
By:
Angel Gabrial
When: 18 Dec 12 20:45
If a novice runs over 2.5 miles (and is the best at it) why shouldn't he stay 3 miles a year later.Confused

Did SDC not fancy it when thrashed by CC at Chepstow ?Confused

Has Hilbore hit the sherry early this year?
By:
buddeliea
When: 18 Dec 12 21:36
Agree that Cue Cards form is pretty good.
But his price aint good for his first crack at winning a race 4 furlongs further than hes won at before imo.
And this thread is about the King George.
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