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2012 QIPCO 2000 GUINEAS:
2012 QIPCO 2000 GUINEAS:
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Not suggesting for one minute that there won't be the usual bunch of big improvers this year, but we've only got actual race form to go on at the moment (and most of that is two-year-old form), plus the usual whispers, hearsay, and occasional comments from trainers.
The Imprudence runners are MASHOORA (Rouget), RUBY'S DAY (O'Neill), BELLE DE LUNE (Pelletan), TRIBUNE (Rouget), NADEAUD (Guillemin), TIBALDI (Head-Maarek), TOPEKA (Collet), MISEDARGENT (Pantall), RESTIADARGENT (Pantall). www.france-galop.com |
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Most Improved is the clear 9/2 (from 6/1) second favourite with Coral for next month's Qipco 2000 Guineas following substantial support for Brian Meehan's charge.
Camelot heads the market at 9/4 with Top Offer 6/1 third best. "Most Improved ended his juvenile campaign with a close-up third in the Dewhurst Stakes but the support we've seen for him suggests he may well have lived up to his name over the winter," said spokesman David Stevens. "He has replaced Top Offer as the closest challenger to long-time ante-post favourite Camelot." StanJames.com have also seen plenty of interest in the colt. The firm's Rory Jiwani said: "The money over the past couple of weeks suggests the 2000 Guineas is a three-horse race with Most Improved the latest to be backed. "Brian Meehan's Dewhurst third was 7/1 at the end of last week but he's been well supported and is now 5/1 second favourite for the one-mile colts' Classic. "Camelot heads our market at 2/1 for Aidan O'Brien as he bids to overturn the recent woeful record of Racing Post Trophy winners with Roger Charlton's Top Offer 11/2." |
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For the Derby and Oaks I think The Headmaster has a good point about improvers. The test of stamina is what a few will need.
The 2000 Guineas though is generally a bit different as it comes so early in the year. Generally it means that people know quite a bit about the contenders as they have shown decent 2yo form to say the least. About 30 of the last 40 winners had shown top class form at 2 and this is a pretty decent trend. Its easy to see why too. The guineas is a speed test essentially. if you are in any way "green" and have excuses, you will probably lose. Of course this year might be a year like Doyoun's where a horse comes from left field. however if you are picking one of these, I would not advise getting stuck in at shortish odds. |
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Cockney Rebel, makfi and Sea to the stars have won this in recent years and it was difficult to believe off
their previous form that they would turn out to be as good as they became. The horses are only young and many will be growing and developing all the time some at a quicker rate than others. Trying to predict which will physically improve the most is probably the key in this race unless you believe Camelots RP trophy victory is good enough form to win it. |
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It's an interesting one. Logic would suggest the big improvers will always come in the Derby, with the trip being the obvious variable alongside the fact the race is simply further away so gives the improvers more time to improve. But as Tinkler says, and just looking back at the last few years, there have been some notable improvers on Guineas day:
Makfi already done. Henrythenavigator only had a Coventry win to speak of. Couldn't win the Phoenix Stakes or the Futurity. Cockney Rebel already done. Footsteps just had the Kilavullan to boast about and, if memory serves, was still a right old price until the money came a week or two before the race. Haafhd couldn't win the Champagne or the Dewhurst. Golan came in off the back of a Chepstow maiden. King's Best was last in the Dewhurst and turned over in the Craven. Island Sands' claim to fame was winning a 6f Class 2 at Salisbury. Of course, you are also going to get the brilliant two year olds who train on, maintain their advantage at three and get their name on the role of honour (Frankel, George Washington) (and for Racing's sake thank goodness) but they certainly win no more frequently than those who take a big leap forward on the day, in my opinion. It would be interesting to see how the ante-post prices looked for the Guineas and Derby on Christmas day, for instance, to see where the winners came from. In that same period we've had Authorized, Motivator, New Approach, High Chaparral, Galileo, none of whom I recall as being big prices for Epsom at the end of their two year old season. None of the above will stop us trying to find a wild one for either race though, I hope  |
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Anyone got any thoughts about Akeed Mofeed?
Got a very positive from John Oxx on Racing Plus a couple of weeks ago and I suspect he wmight be Pricewised on Friday - he gave him the thumbs up as his horse to follow in the Weekender last week |
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Think he is going to run in a trial and if all goes well will be sent over. If you like him it might be prudent to take the 25/1 now.
Most Improved is under 6/1 to back on here which is silly now. He's priced as if he has already won the Craven. |
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Headmaster, it all depends on what criteria you use for establishing whether a Guineas winner is a big improver. Most Guineas winners, by definition, have improved on anything they have achieved previously, but it's relatively rare for a Guineas winner not to have performed well (i.e. won at Listed level or above, or been placed at Group 2 or Group 1 level) in at least one pattern race as a two-year-old. 15 of the last 20 winners of the 2000 Guineas performed well at pattern level as juveniles, were all rated at least 110 by most ratings services, and therefore didn't need to make a huge leap forward to win the Guineas. The five Guineas winners that didn't compete at pattern level as juveniles (and therefore needed to make a huge leap) were Makfi (2010), Golan (2001), Island Sands (1999), Entrepreneur (1997) and Mark Of Esteem (1996). Two-year-old form remains a good guide to both the 2000 and the 1000 Guineas.
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MOST IMPROVED- Brian Meehan said on his website after the work: "He continues to please and after today you can say I'm gaining in confidence for his important objectives."
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cheers Tinkler.
Presumably the Djebel/Imprudence will be on ATR/RUK tomorrow .. |
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Looks a strange year to me. The bookies are pricing as if Camelot won't go but Nephrite appears to be friendless. It just seems as if prices are tighter than they were historically. The first guineas I went too saw Revoque and Entreprenuer go off 11/2 joints from memory. One had solid two year old form and one was a hype horse that was the talk of Newmarket as the best Stoute had since Shergar, If Camelot went for a derby trial instead I reckon Most Improved would be 11/4 and Top Offer 9/2 - not saying one of them won't win be the value is awful.
After Cityscape in Dubai I thought back to Roger Charlton's comment that Top Offer is potentially better. If he is, he must go close if making the line up. |
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1000, even weaker on here
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does anyone really think camelot wont run, imo certain runner
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Agree
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I think he will run but there surely has to be a theory that fast ground at Newmarket would not see him in his best light. It is only Coolmore's drive to match Sea the Stars at stud (guineas,derby,arc) that sees him line up in my opinion as he is clearly a derby horse. He might be good enough but it must be a risk, particularly on fast ground. Only my take on it though.
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No doubt, James. There is always a temptation to say a horse has improved when he steps up in grade and wins, when in fact he was always capable and simply hadn't been given a chance to show it. I was more challenging the perceived wisdom that the Guineas is "the last big two-year-old race of the season" and those table-topping 2-y-os will hold their advantage until Guineas day. The role of honour simply doesn't back that up. Makfi was barely on the track at 2, Golan won a Chepstow maiden, Island Sands a Salisbury C2. They're the extreme examples. But I wouldn't say any of Henry, Footsteps, Haafhd, Cockney Rebel or King's Best had pure form that screamed Guineas, would you? Alright they ran in Pattern or Listed races and won one or two....but they were also stuffed in G1/2 company or didn't compete in the best races. Clearly Henrythenavigator had excuses, as it turns out he wanted it like a road, and KB was always a well-regarded colt who had a tendency to lose the plot but it all came right on the day. Maybe I should not say 'improve' and say 'improve past' as ultimately all horses are improving from 2 to 3 and it's a question of at what rate compared to their contemporaries. The Haafhds of this world, for instance, have obviously improved over the winter by pounds and lengths but also when held up against the rest of the herd.
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The french to win both guineas
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Dont even say the word Mafki
 Had a Tartan Ghiga**** turpin e double(former won at 14-1)  And a **** Turpin/Canford Cliffs rfc |
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FFS Shorter name for richard
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Anyone of the french form students have any news on Atbaal plz???
Being aimed at this?? |
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Just seen he is runnin tomorro
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Maisons-laffitte (FR) PRIX DJEBEL (GROUP 3)
What They Say Jean-Claude Rouget, trainer of Abtaal and Amaan "Abtaal is very well. We'll see how he runs and how he acts [on the straight course]. I don't know that he'll improve his rating this time. Amaan runs to ensure there isn't a false pace." Nicolas Clement, trainer of French Fifteen "I'm happy with him, he's pleased me in his work. It's a high class Djebel, but I'm very happy with the horse's preparation. It's good that there's a pacemaker, it should make for a proper race and I'm hopeful it will all go well. If he runs well he'll go to Newmarket." Mikel Delzangles, trainer of Hermival "It's a tough line up, and it will be interesting to see him among this company. But he's improving, and if he runs well we'll have to see about what's next. I like him a lot, but to beat Abtaal will be tough." Richard Hannon jnr, assistant to Richard Hannon, trainer of Rockinante "We've been very happy with him. He's had a bit of luck over there before and although French Fifteen will be hard to beat we've been very happy with him, he's fit and the French premiums are a bonus. We'd obviously be very happy to win but it's also a trial for the English or French Guineas." I was really taken by French Fifteen's Criterium win and backed him last week for the 2000 Guineas at 33-1 EW. A question for Jamesp and The Headmaster, did French Fifteen pull hard in the Prix Byron which Abtaal won last year? I've tried to find a video of this race but so far I've had no look. For some reason I can't register an account with Equidia.fr and it's doing my head in. Any help will be very much appreciated, I'm undecided whether to back Abtaal as well before the race tomorrow. |
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dont really think that guineas, derby arc will be done again, well not for a long time, sea the stars imo was lucky to run in a very poor year of 3/4 year olds, again imo
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I meant LUCK not look!!!!
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ps but agree , sea the stars is hurting coolmore, and theyre desperate to match him
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ante post markets very dull these days, i still think there is a place to offer odds with a run provisio as well , say id offer so 6/4 camelot with a run for 2000, wading 7/2 for oaks, camelot 5/4/ derby, and maybe 9/4 1000,
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MrDinos, FRENCH FIFTEEN raced keenly through the first half of the Prix Thomas Bryon and was pulling quite hard for about a furlong and a half, but I'm not sure it made any difference to the result - he was simply beaten by a speedier colt, who quickly took several lengths out of the field, and by the time FF got into top gear it was all over. If ABTAAL is in the same form tomorrow it's hard to see him getting beaten. Apparently he has been working well in preparation for this.
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Would Atbaal be aimed at Newmarket iyo james with a good run tomorrow??
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Cheers jamesp, that's great stuff. It's always hard to give an opinion on horses when you haven't seen all their races. I did notice FF pulled a bit in the Criterium as well but from your review he settled a lot quicker than what he did in the Prix Byron. Hopefully it will be a true run race tomorrow, the trip could be a worry for FF with him likely to pull hard again.
It's going to be intriguing to see how they get on running over the Maisons-laffitte straight course and james you're probably correct about Abtaal being the likely winner (speedier). Rouget normally has his horses ready early in the season so that's a big plus as well. Do you think Abtaal will go to Newmarket if he wins? I know US Ranger went for the Guineas but Rouget seems to favour the French version more with his colts. Thanks again james. |
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Beat me to it BJG!
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hose pipe ban in east of country as from today, could we get really fast ground at hq , really small fields etc for 1000/2000
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Rouget won the Djebel with Green Channel (2003), US Ranger (2007) and Le Havre (2009). Of those three, only US Ranger (owned by Michael Tabor) came over for the Guineas. I don't see why they wouldn't run Abtaal in the Guineas if he won well today, but don't take my word for it. In all honesty they probably won't decide on a plan until after today's race.
PS The hose pipe ban doesn't affect 'fields to be used for sporting events'. My understanding is that racecourses are therefore exempt from the ban. In any case, most racecourses don't use mains water for track irrigation. |
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Have just read Brian Meehan's latest bulletin on his website and I think it is fair to say they could not be any more pleased! It's worth a read.
Interesting aswell that Kieran Fallon is riding him in his work. In the Dewhurst Martin Dwyer was jocked off for Dettori, but he may have to ride something else in the Guineas ? |
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I've just watched the Prix Djebel and have to say I'm really impressed with the way French Fifteen ran today. He settled beautifully and quickened up smartly from the rear, even though he jinked a bit to his left. I think he won a shade cosy having watched it a few times and the thing I really love about this horse is the way he finishes his races, the further FF goes the better. Abtaal ran a very good prep as well and Soumillon didn't give him as many taps as Peslier did on FF but once again Abtaal had the race set-up for him and I couldn't see any real excuses.
FF was very weak in the betting before the race and it looked as though Abtaal was backed as if he was going to win on the bridle, so I'm pretty happy with the way things went. FF will also improve stepping back up to 8f. I've also watched the Prix Byron run, having finally managed to sort an account out with Equidia. There was no way FF would have won that day, he wouldn't settle at all and it was hard work for Thulliez! Abtaal had it very easy out in front and should have won the way he did. FF didn't drop out the race having wasted a lot of energy tracking Abtaal and finished with a late flourish which doesn't happen a lot when horses pull so hard. FF looks a very good, consistent colt to me and an improver. Jamesp your sum up of the Prix Byron was spot on but now I've watched it, I think you might of over estimated how good Abtaal's performance was that day IMO. |
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Meehan is notoriously bullish to an unreliable extent whenever he's got a horse he likes.
Fair enough if your on at big odds but beyond that i'd tread very carefully. |
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Hi guys, first time I've posted on here and by no means a racing expert but all I want to know is; why is Parish Hall 16/1 and Power 20/1 when Most Improved finished behind both in the Dewhurst and is 5/1 best price! Yes Power has had a well reported setback but there's is no talk about Parish Hall!
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HAs there been any quotes on Abtaal since
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smido
I doubt Power is running; he would have an outside chance if he did providing nothe=ing reallt fancy ended up running He is good but no star. Most Improved must have been going very well at home and improved as there is stable confidence. However, and price at less than 8/1 is crazy. Parish Hall won the Dewhurst and though the first 6 home were separated by no much, he was the one that found the way to win - a useful attribute for horse with anyone's money on it. Jim Bolger is not a man to let anyone know how his horses are progressing - unlike Brian Meehan, so its anyone's guess how Parish Hall has progressed. 20/1 is clearly too long a price though and he should certainly be closer to Most Improved in the betting. If Parish Hall does come though, it will be because Bolger thinks he can win. James Bolger is not everyone's cup of tea, but as a trainer there are few if any better at getting one right for a classic, as his record shows. For what its worth my guess for the Guineas at this stage is Born To Sea. |
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i can see parish hall trading much shorter even single figures if he turns up
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I think Parish Hall is running in the Leopardstown trial next weekend so may clash with Akeed Mofeed there.
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