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2012 QIPCO 2000 GUINEAS:

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Replies: 638
By:
sintonian
When: 26 Mar 12 09:59
His comments on Maybe seem rather more positive when you compare them to the rest he made on his other runners. She has an unbeaten record to keep.
By:
roobuck
When: 26 Mar 12 12:11
Agree with you sint about Power.

Personally have never been very sweet on the horse though always seems to give a solid performance. The fact he even mentioned the setback would seem to indicate that he is a little behind the others and as AOB is always a relatively slow starter, I couldn't consider him for the Newmarket race.

In a way I hope they just give Camelot a Derby prep as that surely is the race he is destined for as long as they don't bugger the horse up in the same way as SNA. Running in the Guineas may not have had anything to do with it but it has since been proven that the horse needs at least 1.5 miles. But Coolmore are a commercial outfit and I'm sure they are desperate for Montjeu to have a 3yo Classic mile winner so it would be no surprise for him to turn up and that also goes for Wading in the 1000.

I have a bet on Nephrite from last year but have now added Born to Sea @ 14s. Will maybe take another position after the trials are over and the confirmed intention to run ( for what that's worth )
By:
peter64
When: 26 Mar 12 13:05
But Coolmore are a commercial outfit and I'm sure they are desperate for Montjeu to have a 3yo Classic mile winner
C'ant see a better chance at the moment doesn't look like the strongest of renewals starts evens on the dayCool
By:
sintonian
When: 26 Mar 12 16:04
We dont really know if it is a strong renewal yet,imo. Best wait and see what the trials produce.

Connections of Tales Of Grimm have said today he will go for a trial, most likely the craven.
By:
sintonian
When: 26 Mar 12 16:08
Connections of potential Qipco 2000 Guineas aspirant Tales Of Grimm have yet to finalise plans for the spring.

Sir Michael Stoute's colt made a winning debut in a Newbury maiden last August - his sole career start.

The form looks strong, however, with Firdaws, a subsequent winner and third in the Fillies' Mile, finishing second.

Tales Of Grimm is a best-priced 25-1 for the first Classic of the season at Newmarket on May 5, but Barry Simpson, racing manager for owner Sir Robert Ogden, is unsure where he will start off his season.

"He's in good shape and is doing fast work at the moment," said Simpson.

"I haven't spoken to Sir Michael about definite plans yet, but the obvious way to go would be for one of the early trials.

"We'll just see how his work goes and take it as it comes."

Another interesting Ogden-owned horse is Sir Henry Cecil's Fragonard, a big eyecatcher when second on her introduction at Newmarket in July.

"She had an injury after her race at Newmarket, so she's been in the recovery stage," Simpson added.

"But she's a nice filly so fingers crossed she can do well for us."
By:
Masterminded
When: 26 Mar 12 17:20
I heard Tales Of Grimm may be going for the Greenham but looks up in the air reading that interview. Think his form is rock solid tbh and represents a bit of value. Will have come on loads since then & Guineas looks wide open.
By:
tinkler
When: 26 Mar 12 19:36
Power's piece of work(available to look at with Camelot,Maybe and Excelebration on rp website) didn't look very good to me and he seemed to be labouring. As sint has said O'brien has his ready made excuse and unless the horse improves dramatically I think he's unlikely to line up.
Imo Camelot probably will line up with O'brien protecting his breeding value with a comment such "he's fit and well but will
still come on a bit for the run"
By:
Anaglogs Daughter
When: 26 Mar 12 20:20
Camelot camp to make Guineas decision in April

By Jon Lees racingpost.com
TRAINER Aidan O'Brien said on Monday that no decision would be made until at least April about Camelot's participation in the Qipco 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket.
 
The Racing Post Trophy winner emerged from winter quarters to take part in a traditional Ballydoyle racecourse gallop at the Curragh on Sunday after which O'Brien injected some uncertainty into his early season plans.

On Monday O'Brien, speaking at the Irish Racehorse Trainers Association 2011 Flat awards lunch, said: "Camelot seems to have come out of his work at the Curragh on Sunday in good form.

"We still have to decide whether he will go to Newmarket for the 2,000 Guineas and that decision will be made over the next few weeks."

Betfred eased Camelot's odds to 9-4 from 2-1 for the Classic on May 5 and he was pushed out to 5-2 (from 9-4) by Blue Square while Paddy Power responded by slashing the price of stablemate Nephrite, who was cut to 15-2 from 12-1.

"We have eased Camelot despite the liabilities because I don't think anyone is going to back him until O'Brien says whether he is going to run," said Betfred spokesman George Primarolo.

"If you have had £100,000 at 3-1 it [O'Brien's comments] wouldn't fill you with confidence."
By:
elisjohn
When: 26 Mar 12 20:56
so we can take it that maybe a decision at 5 day dec time, i suppose that better than final decs , imo thats why sir henry is far superior as trainer
By:
jair1970
When: 26 Mar 12 21:28
I still haven't forgiven them for messing about with Horatio Nelson, although they did manage the win that year...

Good point well made regarding Montjeus

Having had a look through the entries again, by far the most interesting/overpriced to me is Dragon Pulse.

His form is decent enough last year and the transfer from Harrington to Dezangles has to be a good thing when you compare what happened to respectively Pathfork and Makfi, maybe his owner thinks the same.
He'll prep too and I fancy he'll show up.
By:
rubyisgodinthesaddle
When: 26 Mar 12 21:51
Aidan O Brien knows full that Camelot is running, he is 99% per cent sure only hiccups or injury is the reason he is not saying defo.

Why would he be working over 7f at the Curragh if he was not running, why would the price has been ludriciously short if Coolmore were  50:50. Why would some chap in England put 100k on a horse that may not even turn up?, unless your a idiot you would want to have very very close info to the camp.

Camelot looking fairly forward, he made lengths up with ease he was cantering all over a vastly inferior bunch in what has to be said was the worst group of the lot.

I be baffled if AOB does not run, they knew where this horse was running 24 hours after the Racing Post. They have all the horse mapped out for Dubai at latest a month after the Breeders Cup. Such an outfit are no so blatantly incompetent.

Camelot by the way is a far more round wider beast that St Nicholas Abbey. Much more of a physical specimen and defoo has filled out around the belly.
By:
roobuck
When: 29 Mar 12 15:32
I was wrong re Parish Hall, definitely being aimed at the race and may well even have a prep run
By:
essexguy
When: 30 Mar 12 12:10
Anyone have any news on Fencing?
By:
go-all-in
When: 30 Mar 12 13:49
no news on him , but I'd expect to see him in the Craven. Could be a good trial this year.
By:
sintonian
When: 30 Mar 12 13:59
Thought he was a Derby horse ?
By:
Waiting for Godot
When: 30 Mar 12 15:49
Gosden on Fencing in RP Guide to Flat 2012

''Fencing's in great form and we'll look at races like the Free Handicap or the Craven,and he'll have entries in tha 2,000 Guineas and the French Derby.I put a tongue-tie on him at Doncaster and I might do so again as he was playing with his tongue''
By:
jamesp
When: 30 Mar 12 20:12
jair1970, Delzangles indicated recently that Dragon Pulse would head for the Prix de Fontainebleau on 15 April, and then, depending on how Hermival performs in the Djebel, they will decide which (if either) will go to Newmarket.
By:
tinkler
When: 30 Mar 12 20:39
DAILY xp 30/3
Jim Bolger has had a change of heart and could run PARISH HALL in a leopardstown trial before sending him to Newmarket for the 2,000 guineas
By:
jair1970
When: 30 Mar 12 23:22
Cheers jamesp, was unhappy to see Dragon Pulse not listed in the Djebel nbut that tallies with earlier comments so there's hope, and at big prices.
If I may ask, where did you find that out?
By:
jamesp
When: 31 Mar 12 08:20
jair, There was a Press Association news release, which was picked up by various websites including Newmarket Racecourses:
http://www.newmarketracecourses.co.uk/about-the-home-of-racing/latest-news/2012/march/international-entries-revealed-for-the-qipco-2000-and-1000-guineas/
By:
elisjohn
When: 31 Mar 12 13:20
update, harbour watch is unlikely to make 2,000
By:
jair1970
When: 31 Mar 12 19:32
Thanks jamesp, i'd seen that.
Thought you were party to extra info by the way you'd worded your answer!
No worries, back to finger crossing then Wink
By:
essexguy
When: 01 Apr 12 13:48
Thanks for the replies, re Fencing. I cant see this horse being a derby horse. Gosden was quite sweet on him last year. I am thinking of having a dabble on him for the 2000gns, but see he is very week in the betting having been matched at 130 just recently. ill stick a little at 150 and see if its matched, if it is ill not go in any more as im sure that anyone laying at 150 must be in the know.
By:
cryoftruth
When: 01 Apr 12 20:05
Interesting that there has been a deal of money for Nephrite. I wonder if he is Aiden's main chance - Camelot looks stoutly bred enough unless its a poor Guineas. Of course Nephrite might just need a lot of give in the ground to be at his best.
By:
tinkler
When: 02 Apr 12 16:56
ATR 2/4  [i]Roger Charlton has warned that 2000 Guineas gamble TOP OFFER will not take his chance in the Newmarket Classic if he is not ready to run in a trial beforehand.

The son of Dansili justified plenty of positive vibes when making an impressive racecourse debut at Newbury last August, but an injury shortly afterwards brought his juvenile campaign to an abrupt end.

He has been the subject of strong support for the Guineas in recent weeks and is now a best-priced 7-1 chance, but Charlton believes his charge needs to improve hugely on what he has shown so far to be a realistic Classic contender. The Greenham Stakes at Newbury on April 21 is his most likely starting point at this stage.
[/i]"[i]He looks well and he's a very good-moving horse, so I'm not particularly concerned by the current ground," Charlton told At The Races.

"But the whole country is very short of rain and growth of grass and so on, so the training is starting to get a bit restricted.

"We've got a lot of wonderful turf gallops and they are getting very firm, it's ridiculous this early in the year really, but his preparation has gone very well. I think it's worth bearing in mind that he won a maiden race and probably ran to a figure in the mid 90s.

"To deal with a Classic he's got to be closer to 120, so there's got to be massive improvement. It's very unfortunate he got injured last year and wasn't able to contest a conditions race. Had he won a conditions race, you'd have ended up in a Group race and he'd know more and I'd know more.

"At the moment we're still in the dark and it would be a mistake to ramp a horse up mentally and work-wise just to get him to the Greenham fitter than everything else.

"He'll come when he's ready and if he's ready for the Greenham he'll run. If he's not, we'll find something else. He wouldn't go straight to the Guineas. He'd need to run in a trial and he'd need to come out of the trial well, bearing in mind it is only two weeks from the Greenham to the Guineas.

"It's a big pressure, but it's a long season and I try not to mess things up by forcing things if they're not quite ready"



[/i]
By:
sintonian
When: 02 Apr 12 17:31
James Willoughby a big fan of Abtaal also Headmaster.

Yep caught that interview earlier Tinkler. Top Offer needs to do something decent in the Greenham if he is to make HQ.
By:
sintonian
When: 02 Apr 12 20:28
Cant quite make out what is happening with Most Improved. At the time of my last post he 9.8 on here, now back into 7.2.
By:
roobuck
When: 02 Apr 12 22:43
Are you not tempted to trade sint?
By:
sintonian
When: 03 Apr 12 09:02
Have thought about it Roobuck as I did the same with Maybe but I had a good reason for doing that. With Most Improved I know he is being targetted at the race,all being well, and will be 100% fit. I may wait and see what the decs for the Craven are. He needs to win that to win a Guineas imo.
By:
roobuck
When: 03 Apr 12 09:35
That's fair enough sint and I don't think there is going to be much opposition from the head if the market in the Craven with Top Offer going for the Greenham along with Tales of Grimm. He may win well and shorten again. However he is far too short at the moment imo. The horse that won the Dewhurst is 20s and now confirmed being targeted at the race

It's very easy to be pragmatic when it's someone else's bet
By:
sintonian
When: 03 Apr 12 10:21
Yeah he is no price currently at the 6/7-1. Even after Delegator hacked up in the Craven he was still 4-5/1 on day of the race. Most Improved should still be 10/1 + imo but do think he will improve past the Dewhurst winner, and Power looks unlikely to be ready.
By:
The Headmaster
When: 03 Apr 12 11:49
Djebel looks a screamer.  Doubt there'll be a stronger trial run anywhere, no matter where the winner ends up.
By:
blackbarn
When: 03 Apr 12 13:16
Are the final decs out yet for the Djebel(and Imprudence?)   Thought it was today sometime?
By:
jamesp
When: 03 Apr 12 13:27
I'm not so sure about the form of the French horses, to be honest.  ABTAAL and FRENCH FIFTEEN are very useful colts, but on the basis of last season's form they're rated a few pounds below the likes of CAMELOT, POWER and PARISH HALL, and they will need to have improved significantly.
By:
jamesp
When: 03 Apr 12 13:30
Final decs for the Djebel:
ABTAAL (Rouget); AMAAN (Rouget); FRENCH FIFTEEN (Clement); HERMIVAL (Delzangles); ROCKINANTE (Hannon); LORD SINCLAIR (Chappet); AL MALEK (Hofer); VENETO (Guillemin); PARIS BLUE (Pelletan); SALURE (Grizzetti).
By:
The Headmaster
When: 03 Apr 12 13:56
I'm always quite surprised when folk bring 2-y-o ratings into the 3-y-o equation.  Those ratings are reflective of the races they ran in rather than how good the actual horse is.  ATR were banging the same drum yesterday, as though all maiden winners rated 80 will stay on 80 throughout their 3-y-o season.  It would be a far greater shock, imo, if a number of horses DIDN'T improve the 40lbs needed to throw down a strong Classic challenge.  It happens every year fgs.  What was Pour Moi rated?  Makfi? You could sit here all day knocking out examples like that.... Happy
By:
blackbarn
When: 03 Apr 12 14:06
Thanks James for the Djebel decs.  Do you happen to have the Imprudence too?.  What is your source for french decs? to same me bothering you. Cheers
By:
blackbarn
When: 03 Apr 12 14:06
"save" me
By:
The Headmaster
When: 03 Apr 12 14:09
They're on the RP site now.
By:
blackbarn
When: 03 Apr 12 14:09
Found them!!, hidden away on the RP Site.  Crazy
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