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2012 QIPCO 2000 GUINEAS:

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Replies: 638
By:
sintonian
When: 21 Mar 12 23:31
Elisjohn, we have already had updates on Most Improved and Harbour Watch. Both of these trainers are pretty quick to update people.

Dont expect to here a word about the AOB runners until the 48hrs decs,though, and something similar for Stoutey.

As far as I am aware Bolger will send Parish Hall over, probablt first time up, though there is a Guineas trial at Leopardstown beforehand.
By:
elisjohn
When: 22 Mar 12 08:21
[:grin, getting too excited, im very much a flat man
By:
elisjohn
When: 22 Mar 12 08:22
Grin
By:
elisjohn
When: 22 Mar 12 08:28
in the 80s / 90s i always bought a flat timeform annual think it was called spotlight?,really chunky book cost around £ 15 then, had all the previous years results in,  is this book still available, there was no racing books in my local smiths yesterday.
By:
roobuck
When: 22 Mar 12 08:39
I thought Bolger had said it was unlikely that Parish Hall would come over for this and would be given a Derby prep?
By:
sintonian
When: 22 Mar 12 10:48
Ooh I may be wrong then Roobuck. The horse is a winner of a Dewhurst and I thought he said he would be aimed at the Guineas as first port of call ?
By:
roobuck
When: 22 Mar 12 10:52
Remember New Approach - we are both probably wrong...or right.
By:
Sir
When: 22 Mar 12 20:05
sintonian Date Joined: 21 Sep 04
Dont expect to here a word about the AOB runners until the 48hrs decs,though, and something similar for Stoutey.

Dont think Stoute has anything for the classics this years. His 2yo last season vere very poor
By:
tinkler
When: 22 Mar 12 21:06
By Rodney Masters 7:37PM 22 MAR 2012 HARBOUR WATCH, a general 10-1 chance for the Qipco 2,000 Guineas in May, has suffered a setback and faces a race against timeto be fit for Newmarket.
By:
tinkler
When: 22 Mar 12 21:09
Read some thing in the RP a couple of days ago re PARISH HALL and I think Bolger said he was to go straight for the guineas as he didn't want to run it in Ireland carrying a group 1 penalty.
By:
Anaglogs Daughter
When: 22 Mar 12 22:07
Guineas hope Harbour Watch suffers setback
By Rodney Masters racingpost.com

22 MAR 2012 HARBOUR WATCH, a general 10-1 chance for the Qipco 2,000 Guineas on May 5, has suffered a setback and faces a race against time to be fit for Newmarket.


The Richard Hannon-trained colt missed the end of the last season with a leg injury and connections said on Thursday that his latest setback will rule him out of running in a Classic trial.

Assistant trainer Richard Hannon junior said: "Due to the setback he'll not be able to run in a trial.

"Our plan at this stage remains to aim for the 2,000 Guineas but time is tight and he is not a certain runner by any means. We'll do our best to get him there."

Harbour Watch, who remains unbeaten in three starts, won the Group 2 Richmond Stakes at Goodwood in July.
By:
VikingRidge
When: 22 Mar 12 22:25
I've had a nightmare week and that news is just the cherry on top!!! Angry

Sint you at Newbury tomoz?
By:
go-all-in
When: 23 Mar 12 14:44
Somebody's put up £2900 for Most Improved at 10.0 ... thats a big chunk in a market like this.. especially when he's freely available on oddschecker at 9/1... they must really fancy this one.

Interestingly there's not a great deal to lay for Camelot at the moment.
By:
roobuck
When: 23 Mar 12 14:59
The market on here is a little puzzling - its all Most Improved or Top Offer as well as Camelot

Personally disappointed to see you can back Nephrite at 23s though for not much money as this would indicate not much confidence or not going to turn up. I have had a small amount on Dragon Pulse at avg 49 - there has to be some value on here as I cannot believe it is a 3 horse race. What it is however is hard to say.

At this stage it looks like it may well be a very poor race
By:
sintonian
When: 23 Mar 12 17:12
I'd not take much notice of the markets at the moment tbh. Sure, money for Most Improved and Top Offer is a positive, but there will be several more ''gambles'' between now and raceday.

Cant believe Top Offer is a 7/1 shot tbh.

Hannon has second string horses like Bronterre and Trumpet Major, and AOB usually has 3  or 4 to choose from.

Viking, no I wont be going, hope it is a decent card as I will be looking at it tonight! Excited
By:
sintonian
When: 23 Mar 12 17:15
what about Tales Of Grimm for Stoutey ?
By:
go-all-in
When: 23 Mar 12 18:38
Personally I really fancy the chances of Bronterre - have him for decent stakes at 33/1 (by my standards). I was taken with his listed win, and thought he ran a race full of promise in the dewhurst - racing alone and looking a little keen, then hanging right. Travelled like possibly the best horse in the race imho. I also seem to remember comments from Hannon just before/after Dewhurst day saying he was or is close to being over the top for the season.
Seems a type that I'd expect to come out and win the Greenham or something, then go off a lot shorter than currently trading.

I was also taken with Tales of Grimm, and have got little bits at 3 figure prices on here - He was engaged in the Horris Hill but never ran. I was hearing very good whispers about his work before that - with Stoutey's though I guess we'll find out if he's good enough when/if a workforce style gamble is forthcoming Silly

I'd agree that there's got to be value away from the head of the market. For all Camelot was ultra impressive in the RPT , he's a Montjeu so unbackable at that price for me. Top Offer clearly a nice sort who could be anything, but 7/1 is a terrible price at this stage. One I would like is Nephrite, and I'm encouraged by Ladbrokes being lowest price on it... but its price on here suggests non-runner? Most Improved ran a real nice race in the dewhurst and one of you advised him at 50s at some point during the winter iirc? That was a massive price, I'v took a little 20/1 e/w recently, as the similarities with Delegator are blatantly obvious. He's plenty short enough now although I wouldn't be surprised if he goes shorter still as this gamble is showing little signs of subsiding.
By:
The Headmaster
When: 23 Mar 12 19:17
This Guineas is very interesting from a punting point of view.  Can't quite believe we've got a son of Montjeu carrying the market on his shoulders again.  Are they all mad?  Clearly.  As a guide, his best offspring by RPR from 7f-9f are, in order, St Nic, Authorized, Camelot and Motivator.  The obvious link between them all is that they posted those numbers at 2.  It is unlikely that the old man will ever get a proper runner over 8f at 3 onwards yet we're 7/1 bar one.  Of course, Coolmore will be off for their lives 'cos if they do ever land a Guineas with a Montjeu it's party time....but I'll wait for it to happen before believing and Power looks a much more obvious sort to me.  Apollo would appeal more on breeding too.

Tales Of Grimm showed a good attitude at Newbury and is in the 'could be anything' folder along with a few others.....but the horse who is already been put in the 'definitely something and could be everything' folder is ABTAAL.  A lot of talk over here on the French horses has focussed on Delzangles' two, but Hermival is a twentieth of the price Makfi was at this stage and has it all to prove, while Dragon Pulse has worryingly not received an entry in the Djebel. That could be nothing more than a plan to wait for the Fontainebleau but I'd advise extreme caution with him until that's cleared up, especially as a win in the Fontainebleau, being over the Fench 2000 C&D, would likely see the victor stay at home.  French Fifteen showed a good turn of foot to win on his last start at two and seems a potential runner, but the horse that absolutely smashed him up the time before was Abtaal, who really does look like he could be something special.  He'd have to prove a liking for fast ground if it came up rattling on the Rowley again, and it remains to be seen if his entry is anything more than speculative....but he has been entered in the Djebel which tends to be where they go if there's an eye on Newmarket, and I really rather think we might see something explosive if he trains on from two to three and comes over.  A few 'ifs' then, but 33 will look a big old price if all the ducks line up.
By:
roobuck
When: 23 Mar 12 19:50
Great post HM - very informative
By:
Dark Destroyer
When: 23 Mar 12 19:57
While not denying the obvious fact that Montjeu had yet to produce a top class miler I still was sufficiently impressed with him In the RP to have a precautionary interest for the guineas (which appears to put me in a pretty small minority on here!).

Mind you I'm the mug who backed Frankel at 33s for the Derby confident that HRAC would hardly start a guineas candidate off in a soft ground maiden over 8 furlongs so what do I know?
By:
tinkler
When: 23 Mar 12 20:26
Camelot - looks more of a stayer than a miler to me also AOB seems to have no problem running horses in this race when their not 100% as he looks for them to peak later on. This horse looks a prime candidate
for not being 100% and AOB saying he'll come on for the run.
Top Offer - won a maiden ! Didn't see anything special there.
Most Improved - lacks physical scope for me and physically has no were near the Physical presence Delegator had. Not for me
Power - More chance of being 100% than Camelot as this could be his ideal race. No idea if they intent to run.
Parish Hall - big scopey 2 y/o who is open to a lot of improvement. Had the run of the race in the Guineas. Bolger/manning seem to do extremely well on the Rowley mile course and he's an intented runner.
  Dewhurst form didn't look great ,with there being a bunch finish and the race could be wide open.
  Going to see what happens in the trials.
By:
tinkler
When: 23 Mar 12 20:28
*guineas should read Dewhurst
By:
go-all-in
When: 23 Mar 12 20:48
Dark Destroyer - I came to the exact same conclusion as you regarding Frankel & HRAC - that maiden win screamed middle distance horse to my eye Mischief
By:
cryoftruth
When: 23 Mar 12 21:10
I don't see the fuss about Power. he looks very well exposed as an unlikely winner of even a modest 2000 Guineas and was beaten by the bolger colt anyhow in the Dewhurst (in a bunch finish that makes the form look a bit doubtful anyhow).

Top Offer is mainly hype, but has scope I suppose.

If Camelot runs like he did at doncaster he is a likely winner, even though I accept all the stuff about Montjeu imparting too much stamina. its not that Caamelot would be a great winner, its just he looks so much better than the others he might get away with it. he is a very short price though - too short for me.

I agree about maybe Nephrite being a likelier sort. he is certainly not bred to get a mile, but he stayed on well enough over 7 in a bog so he surely will defy his pedigree, and he looks very smart.

With Aiden horses though, you never really know which one is "off" until nearer the time, and seeing which one is shortest with the magicswine is usually the way to tell.

For those not involved in the ante post markets, I would strongly advise to keep an eye on the trials as they may prove significant this year, with some, as they always do, emerging in the Greenham or Craven as miles improved for the winer break.

Despite the drift, I still have not given up hope of Born to Sea.
By:
MrDinos
When: 23 Mar 12 22:56
A good sum up cryoftruth and pretty much the same as I see it at the moment.

As we all know with ante post betting the weather can be the biggest determining factor on which horse wins on the day. If there was rain around at the time of the Guineas meeting French Fifteen would be my idea of the winner. I was really impressed with the way he picked up off a fast pace in his last race and he's improved with every race.

The Headmaster made some good points regarding French Fifteen and Abtaal and I also agree, if Abtaal runs which is a big if at the moment has got to have a good chance as well. He was a close second to Sofast, who ran a superb race on Arc day just getting touched off by Dabirsim. Abtaal's pedigree is interesting as well, his sire Rock Hard Ten who is out of Kris S and a Mr Prospector mare had some very good turf form in America winning G1 and G2 races. Both French Fifteen and Abtaal have pedigrees which you wouldn't normally associate with 2000 Guineas winners but as with Camelot and his Montjeu pedigree there's always a first time for everything. I'm not sure whether Rouget has ever targeted the race before but he knows what it takes to win races at Newmarket (Literato), plus Hamdan Al Maktoum doesn't have any other obvious candidates.

The Djebel is a race I'm very much looking forward to and of course the other trials!

Good luck with your bets.
By:
jamesp
When: 24 Mar 12 10:03
There are 14 entries for the Prix Djebel at Maisons-Laffitte on 5 April:

ABTAAL (Rouget); AMAAN (Rouget); FRENCH FIFTEEN (Clement); HERMIVAL (Delzangles); VANILOQUIO (Clement); ROCKINANTE (Hannon); LORD SINCLAIR (Chappet); AL MALEK (Hofer); VENETO (Guillemin); CHEZ LAURENT (Collet); ROBERT LE DIABLE (Prod'homme); PARIS BLUE (Pelletan); COUP DE THEATRE (Van De Poele); SALURE (Grizzetti).

Those entered in the 2000 Guineas: ABTAAL, FRENCH FIFTEEN, HERMIVAL.

FRENCH FIFTEEN was recently confirmed as being on course for the Guineas but I see no particular reason why he should reverse the Prix Thomas Bryon form with ABTAAL, who beat him easily that day, even allowing for the fact that the winner effectively 'stole' the race by quickening clear off a modest early pace.  ABTAAL is likely to take some beating in the Djebel.
By:
peter64
When: 24 Mar 12 11:12
as keeps being mentioned massive negative against camelot because of his sire but the third fav for the 1000 is also by montjeu
By:
jamesp
When: 24 Mar 12 13:56
peter64
24 Mar 12 10:12
as keeps being mentioned massive negative against camelot because of his sire but the third fav for the 1000 is also by montjeu


...which is why I'm against the filly in the 1000 Guineas (both Camelot and Wading are sure to be better suited by middle distances)...
By:
sintonian
When: 25 Mar 12 18:57
I dont think Power looks anything special either COT but I wouldn't say he cant win the Guineas. He was quite unlucky in the Dewhurst and seemed to get mugged by La Collina in his only other defeat when she came up the blind side. Recently the the winner of the Coventry Stakes has turned out to be pretty smart so whilst he does not look exceptional you know the horse is tough and honest and will run his race, provided he is 100% fit. AOB may prep him over here and then send him back home for the Irish version like he did with Mastercrafstman and Roderic O'Connor. I guess the market will tell us on the day?!
By:
sintonian
When: 25 Mar 12 19:00
cheers for the lowdown on the Frenchies Headmaster/JamesP.
By:
Anaglogs Daughter
When: 25 Mar 12 20:49
O'Brien: Camelot not 'definite' for Guineas

By Jessica Lamb 7:28PM 25 MAR 2012 racingpost.com

AIDAN O'BRIEN on Sunday warned that it would be "wrong" to say that 5-2 favourite Camelot was "likely" for the Qipco 2,000 Guineas after he was one of 44 Ballydoyle horses to work after racing at the Curragh.

Camelot, ridden by the trainer's son Joseph, quickened up well up the stands' rail at the end of aseven and a half furlong gallop to finish second in the first bunch of O'Brien's workers, which also included Ascot Gold Cup favourite Fame And Glory.

O'Brien did not rule out the 2,000 Guineas, but did not confirm that it was Camelot's target either.

He said: "It would be wrong to say that he is likely [to run in the 2,000 Guineas]. Obviously he's a possible, but not definite."

O'Brien also revealed Power, no bigger than 12-1 for the 2,000 Guineas, suffered an interruption to his Classic season preparation around three months ago.

Power was ridden by Ryan Moore in the fourth and final group, which included new recruit Excelebration ridden by Joseph, and was kept towards the rear throughout the gallop.

O'Brien explained: "He missed a bit of time after Christmas, nothing major, so he was just following up and wasn't asked anything."
By:
Anaglogs Daughter
When: 25 Mar 12 20:56
http://betfred.chromaagency.com

Camelot, ante-post favourite for the 2000 Guineas and the Derby, pleased Aidan O'Brien as he featured among a huge team of Ballydoyle horses who worked after racing at the Curragh.

The unbeaten Racing Post Trophy winner was partnered by Joseph O'Brien in an 11-horse group that also featured stablemates Fame And Glory (Seamus Heffernan) and David Livingston (Ryan Moore).

Racing towards the back in the early stages over seven and a half furlongs, Camelot looked to stay on very nicely to finish second, firmly on the bridle, and the twice-raced son of Montjeu remains in the mix for the Qipco-sponsored Guineas at Newmarket on May 5.

O'Brien said: "He just cantered up in behind and Joseph seemed to be very happy with him. It's lovely ground, he did seven and a half, they swung back nicely and did it all on the bridle. It was just a nice day away really, it makes the training a little bit easier.

"We can't say that anything is definite for now. We'll go home and talk about plans. Obviously he is a possible (for the Guineas), but it would be wrong to say any horse is a definite. They are possibles.

"Today was the most testing work he had done since the Racing Post Trophy and he seemed to come through it fine. He came from the back, finished nicely and was not asked a serious question. He is a possible without saying he is a definite."

Maybe, favourite for the 1000 Guineas and Oaks, looked to go well as she worked under O'Brien junior in an 11-horse group that included Moore on the well-touted Rockfel Stakes winner Wading and Pat Smullen on Kissed.

O'Brien said: "She has done very well physically and we are very happy with where she is. Newmarket is the first possibility for all these horses and over the next 10 days we will sit down and pick a target for all of them. Joseph was very happy with Maybe and so was Ryan with Wading, they all seemed to go fine."

Leading 2000 Guineas fancy Nephrite worked in the third group of horses, while newcomer to the yard Excelebration was in action in the fourth group and could renew rivalry with Frankel in the JLT Lockinge Stakes at Newbury on May 19. Power was another in that group.

O'Brien went on: "The obvious first target (for Excelebration) would be the Lockinge. We've never done anything with him and that was the first little bit he was asked to do. He seemed to track up there on the bridle. Power missed a little time after Christmas but nothing major and he just followed them up there today."
By:
differentdrum
When: 25 Mar 12 21:34
Since the gamble on Top Offer we have had the negatives about Harbour Watch and Camelot. As I suggested it makes you wonder if they already knew.
By:
VikingRidge
When: 25 Mar 12 22:22
Sint, in fairness La Colina had the worst run in the race and most have lost quite a few lengths the amount of times she got switched in/out. Think the best horse won that day! Maybe Im slightly biased as I backed her at 110.0 on here tehe
By:
jair1970
When: 25 Mar 12 22:39
The Top Offer 'gamble' was just post-Cheltenham tipping line nonsense

To say 'they knew' is just paranoid.

Camelot might make it but he campaigned Power like a Guineas horse last year and the one time they put their impressive RP Trophy winner into the Guineas, it failed, so it is still up in the air for sure.

Truly phenomenal non-committal from O'Brien there though:

"We can't say that anything is definite for now. We'll go home and talk about plans. Obviously he is a possible (for the Guineas) but it would be wrong to say any horse is a definite, they are possibles.

"Today was the most testing work he had done since the Racing Post Trophy and he seemed to come through it fine. He came from the back, finished nicely and was not asked a serious question.

"He is a possible without saying he is a definite.

"I would say he's a possible (for Newmarket), but it would be wrong to say likely. The plan was to keep coming along to see where we were and today was the most serious bit he was asked to do since the Racing Post Trophy.

"He seemed to do it fine, Joseph seemed to be happy but we haven't quizzed him in-depth.

"He seemed to come from the back and finish nicely, so it is possible without saying definite and until it is all discussed with everybody those things are never made definite


Definite possible then Aidan?

He must have been asked the same question time over by hacks whose back pockets were burning with ante-post vouchers.

Hilarious
By:
VikingRidge
When: 25 Mar 12 22:53
Jair I think from reading between the lines he might be a possible for the race
By:
stevo1
When: 26 Mar 12 00:35
Who in their right mind will back this possible runner? At current price ffs! Allegedly someone up North had 100k with Bald Fred i think at 5/2.
By:
Michrich
When: 26 Mar 12 08:26
So does that mean Power is ready to go or not?
By:
The Headmaster
When: 26 Mar 12 09:53
Is it not somewhat disturbing that Laddies - with their supposed well-known line into Ballydoyle - have been top price on Power for a while and we have only just found out that he's had a troubled winter?

I thought Power was unlucky at Newmarket and would have enough inside him to take an average-ish Guineas, if this is what it is, if he was eyeballs out and got the breaks.  Can't back him atm though.
By:
sintonian
When: 26 Mar 12 09:56
Jair, was thinking the same, it is hilarious if nothing else. Typical AOB.

This minor setback for Power has me wondering if Power might be aimed for the Irish version now, as they have a ready excuse if they want one. Didn't they say the same re Mastercrafstman or ROC prior to the 2000 Guineas ?? I swear I recall a similar comment for one of his and I dont mean Steinbeck.
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