Horse Antepost
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The Arc
The Arc
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Stall 1. Hiruno D'amour - Shinji Fujita
Stall 2. Danedream - Andrasch Starke Stall 3. Testosterone - Stephane Pasquier Stall 4. Galikova - Olivier Peslier Stall 5. Masked Marvel - William Buick Stall 6. St Nicholas Abbey - Joseph O'Brien Stall 7. Reliable Man - Gerald Mosse Stall 8. Workforce - Ryan Moore Stall 9. Shareta - Thierry Jarnet Stall 10. Meandre - Maxime Guyon Stall 11. Snow Fairy - Frankie Dettori Stall 12. Treasure Beach - Colm O'Donoghue Stall 13. Sarafina - Christophe Lemaire Stall 14. So You Think - Seamus Heffernan Stall 15. Silver Pond - Thierry Thulliez Stall 16. Nakayama Festa - Masayoshi Ebina |
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Japanese runners flanking the field. Like a pair of sheepdogs.
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Pace looks evenly distributed: Shareta from the outside and Testosterone ? from the inner draws.
Sarafina, who can be keen early, and So You Think are done no favours by draw. |
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I imagine Jospeh takes SNA to a prominent pose too.
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Well if SYT is going to silence all his doubters he'll have to do it the hard way. No excuses now bring it on! Thanks for the up to the minute TT.
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Is there really a draw bias in this race that effects the outcome as some would have you believe, or is it not just a case of the best horse on the day usually winning, coupled with a bit of luck needed at the right time. Zarakava and STS have both been boxed in from supposed easier draws.
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I'm with you on this G83 if they're good enuff they'll win. Luck IS required borne out by the sheer number of 'hard luck stories'.
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I tend to agree Graeme - it is a 12f race after all.
Reliable Man seems to be getting some support this morning (since the draw). He was almost friendless yesterday, wasn't he? It's very wet here (N. Ireland). Shame it's not moving south - I've ended up with WF my best winner. I'm not convinced he needs a soft-top, but I'll take any advantage I'm given. |
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No problem Solving [;)]
Draw (Only counting runnings with more than 10 runners) Horses drawn bottom half: 7-11-76 Horses drawn top half: 2-7-70 Only Dalakhani and Sakhee have been able to win from the top half of the draw. In general a lower draw is preferable. |
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If a trainer could choose draw 6 or draw 16, which would they prefer?
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The problem with the arguement that the best horse tends to win despite the draw is that on ground that is likely to be good they will go faster in the early part of the race making getting a good position from a wider draw more difficult,that i would think is just common sense
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In France, must maintain lane for a furlong, and then at Longchamp most of the race is run turning to the right. It aint Chester, but the draw matters. Sarafina is near her pacemaker, but her and SYT are disadvantaged compared to the runners drawn in single digits. Incontrovertible.
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Agree the draw matters. A horse like Sarafina will use more ground by moving across and dropping in - still think she'll win though
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Bon chance A-T. I had here large last year, when a miraculous close saved my stake, but I cant have a 4yo mare in the Arc myself. Masked Marvel for me.
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Not so much an issue for a hold up horse like Sarafina, the horses that like to race up front or handy will be most affected imo.
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Right - I'm off....packed shorts and T-shirt for first time...looks like a scorcher
 Will check back in on Monday to share the cheers and tears   Good luck to all. |
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Have fun headmaster[;)]
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Have fun Head. Hope you win a packet.
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GL Bon voyage
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GL TM, hope you will be swimming in Champagne on sunday night with a nice little madam on the proceeds of SF!!
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The missus is coming with me so no chance of that, zil
Cheers fellas. |
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Just tell her "When in France" etc etc
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Cheers Bazzar
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The missus is coming with me
Ah ha! The Headmistress, eh? I daresay you'll be fibbing about your winnings then? |
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Fears that Workforce could miss the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp on Sunday because of fast ground have been calmed after connections walked the track.
Sir Michael Stoute's four-year-old will attempt to become the first horse since Alleged (1977-78) to win back-to-back renewals of Europe's premier all-aged middle-distance race. He will have former champion jockey Ryan Moore on board after a timely recovery from a broken bone in his hand suffered at Glorious Goodwood, and Teddy Grimthorpe, racing manager to owner Khalid Abdullah, believes that is a massive bonus. At the draw, Workforce was handed stall eight, the same gate he won from 12 months ago. Grimthorpe said: "I hope it's as lucky as last year - he's fared better (in the draw) than some of the other fancied runners. We walked the track this morning and it is on the easy side of good. They put 10 millimetres on, so from that point of view we are fairly happy. "Depending on what the weather does they will consider putting more on and review the situation on Saturday night, and I'm hopeful of a happy outcome. "It's great to have Ryan back, for all the best reasons. He knows him, he's the only one to have ridden him, he knows what to expect. The horse is in very good shape, Sir Michael is very happy with him. There have not been many dual Arc winners and we've got a bit of work to do to join them." Ed Dunlop is not overjoyed with Snow Fairy's draw in stall 11, but he believes she has plenty going for her as she seeks to add Europe's most prestigious prize to her two Classics and her victories in major events in Japan and Hong Kong. "We're not in one to eight, but neither are So You Think or Sarafina, so that's what has happened. With her I don't think it's as essential as a horse who needs to be close to the pace. We've got what we've got, so we'll make the most of it," said the trainer. "I think she's adaptable trip-wise. We never really envisaged the ground would be suitable enough for her to run in the Arc, even though we put her in, so Mrs Patino (owner) is very excited. We're under no illusions that it's going to be very tough, but she deserves to be there." |
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So who's gonna be the pricewise selection for the ARC?
Has to be SNA |
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excellent draw for Sarafina imo.
medium field, out wide. perfect. wont concede too much ground and will have a clear shot at the leaders. |
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Ridiculous that they have watered it so much that the going is between good and soft, and they may water yet more on Saturday night - what is actually wrong with good to firm ground? I can understand jumps tracks (e.g. Cheltenham and Aintree) trying to avoid the word firm in the going but surely top class flat racing is meant to be run on fast ground.
It seems that the watered ground that is considered safe for the Grand National will actually be quicker going than what the authorities feel the best flat thouroughbred horses in the world should be running on this Sunday.[smiley:crazy] |
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Ridiculous isnt it, too late for me now
 ive a mind to go to comet and buy around 400 hairdryers and pop over to Paris on saturday night |
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Given the going is likely to be good to soft, and who knows possibly a bit loose, patchy etc, I find the price of over 300 on Silver Pond way too big to resist to small stakes.
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It will be good ground come the time of the race imo
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The weather in Paris today was very hot!!! It felt more like I was down the Mediterranean, weird. I can't see how it's not going to be good quick ground even if they get the water canon out!
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Dino knows
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If the ground is watered to the point of having soft in the description, how will Nathaniel backers feel?
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France Galop Director General Hubert Monzat took the opportunity to assure connections that the ground at Longchamp will be "fair for all" prior to the draw for the 90th running of the prestigious contest
He said: "I would like to reassure all racing professionals, and especially those connections of horses with an aptitude for softer ground that we will present a surface which is fair for all, and that the whole undertaking has been carried out with the utmost professionalism." Monzat said that the ground was "between good and soft" after another 10mm of water had been added on Thursday night, and that heexpected to race on good ground on both days of the meeting beginning Saturday. |
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Hiruno D'Amour for the Japs for me - wherever Sarafina finishes this horse should be very close on their last run and with Sarafina being 9/2 (with a poor draw) and Hiruno 14/1 (with a plum draw) I would much rather be on the Japanese raider. Great chance and very good horse with the tatical speed required for an Arc.
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How is artificially changing the ground to good to soft 'fair to all'? He clearly states that it is to appease connections of horses who act better with cut - so by definition it
is not fair to those connections whose horses prefer to hear their hoofs rattle |
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Watering is lesser of two evils. As Royer-Dupre said this week, nature of ground beneath grass at Longchamp means a day or two without water -- and the heat has been terrific, no? -- turns ground hard and it can damage horses.
Agree that there is an element of pressuring going on when Stoute and R-D hammer on about the issue so much. |
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Its amazing that there wasnt wholesale slaughter going back in the last 50 years then
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I think the Fair to All comment is made on the ''belief'' that Good going is suitable for all horses come rain or shine, and there should be no excuses made.
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