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Seville - Derby
Seville - Derby
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Replies: 212
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Sorry Tinkler - respect your opinion but cant agree. I think he was just beaten by two better horses on the day. Don't see him being a follower and don't see him having a mental flaw......unlike his stablemate Recital!
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I think Seville will stride into a place and will be made fav for the Ledger after the race. Paceless horses don't win the Derby.
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Seville/Native Khan would be my picks at the current prices.Carlton House is absolute joke price.Not saying he cant win but should be around 5/2, 3/1 mark.Personally think Seville WILL prove to be the better over 1 mile 4.
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Haven't had the time to read all this yet, but it strikes me that this horse has shown a suprising amount of speed in his career so far, given that his breeding suggests he's been racing over trips far too short for him.
The chance to run over the Derby trip, in a race not run at a crawl, could easily see him reverse the Dante form - the different test is likely to suit him better than the fav, imho. He's also out of a mare capable of a Group One level of form herself - this has been an important part of the make up of plenty of Derby winners in recent times... |
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''Seville looks to have a lot of natural
ability but I feel this mentality of following is a big Flaw for him. He may grow out of it but personally I think he'll run up a lot of places in the top races this year. He also appears to keep a little bit back in his races '' This 'mentality of following' almost certainly exists only in your head! He has a solid 12f+ pedigree....every chance Casamento was simply too quick over 1m on Good ground at 2 yrs and C House was too quick in very slowly-run 10f race on reappearance. Whether Seville quite has the class to win a Derby is open to debate but truly-run 12f is when this horse shows what he's made of and i dont think he'll be far away. |
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Horses my like to run in the herd and avoid going to the front. But the horse will be trained on the gallops to go past his lead horse and "win" the gallop.
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Duncan
You state "I don't think he'll be far away" i agree he won't be far away when he follows the winner into 2nd or 3rd place. Seville has bags of pace and class he just doesn't like being in front I think he gets lonely and wants the company of other horses , he feels safer. |
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I think both arguments being levelled at Seville are folly. I think his RP and Dante runs both show he has quite a bit of pace, I think he just lacks acceleration which has seen him outpointed in both of those races by something with more of a turn of foot. As for being a follower, that may be true, but I just think he has bumped into one better suited to conditions in his last two races.
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He may well finish 2nd or 3rd but certainly not because he is a "follower"
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Soumi on board
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albion
I agree with you, but there is a distinct possibility that he will find one or two too good at Epsom as well, in the conditions. He should improve for a faster pace and the extra distance, in fact he is bound to improve. However the Derby (unless its soft going) does tend to be won by a horse with a turn of foot. Seville may just lack the speed required. Good horse (actually a really good looking brute) though - good luck. |
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Yes he might do cot, I do think he is a great each way bet at the prices tho. He will definitely need a positive ride, hopefully soumi will send him on just after tattenham corner, because if he is having to quicken in the final couple of furlongs his chance will have gone imo.
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I managed to get a really good book on the Derby mainly through laying Frankel at low prices to lose fortunes. Now we have got here I find the actual race is as open as any I can ever remember.
Your choice has an obvious chance of reversing form because of the extra distance and the extra pace of the Derby. Recital is very able though maybe a bit dodgy. The queen's horse seems to me to be a terrible price, but is bred to be good,. is bred to stay and is unbeaten and did win the Dante pretty comfortably showing bags of speed. The 2 frenchmen seem to me to have serious chances, the Aga's horse would not be coming if they believed he could not reverse the form with Pour Moi. A very tricky and open race! |
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Seville is the one for me. I hope he's ridden prominently, following an O'Brien frontrunner and kicks on 3 furlongs out. Reminds me of High Chaparral the year he beat Hawkwing.
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Just topped up at 13/2 NRNB in case the fav comes out. Recital is the danger for me. I think he is the most naturally gifted but his flaws are stopping me backing him at the moment...
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Needs to overcome the poor draw Stats.
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FFS
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as penny says, would like to see him up there ready to carry on with any slackening of the pace.
Should have done this one each way  |
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6/1 third the odds with 365 seems fair.
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unclepuncle
When: 29 May 11 18:41 I have a funny feeling Treasure Beach will do best of the O'Brien qaurtet  |
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very poor. He wouldn't have won, but I am baffled by tactics. Game over after about 2f. I know it wasn't easiest from his draw, but he had no chance being held up 2nd last. |
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Having backed Seville to come 2nd or 3rd I have to hold my hands up and say he was a mugs bet. Take out charlton house from the dante and the form is rubbish, the time was poor the sectional was poor the beaten
horses were poor. His 2 y/o form doesn't look good either. A big misjudgement of a horses ability. |
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Pisco Sour managed to turn the form around from the Dante
 I suspect he can win races this season back in Ireland, though, and probably a bit early to rule out the St Leger even though his form is shoite so far. |
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I will only give up on him if he is toilet in the Irish Derby
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Huge form boost there. Perhaps Seville just hated Epsom ?
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They said he didn't act on the track, I don't like that excuse though, and I didn't think he lost his action particularly. He was just given a baffling ride being held up. He was alongside Recital and Pour Moi turning in, and their main asset is a turn of foot, something Seville doesnt have. If he lines up at the Curragh I think he will be hard to beat.
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Couldnt agree more AD. Baffling ride at Epsom - the horse is much better than that and hopefully will prove it in Irish Derby.
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I am pretty sure I read on sporting life the other day that Aidan will saddle Recital, Memphis Tennesse and Treasure Beach in the Irish Derby. There was no mention of Sevvy.
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Yes I heard similar. Be a shame if he misses it as I thought the Irish Derby would be ideal for him.
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Well, apparenty he will now run according to Anne-Marie on Twitter. Goods news.
The race could take on a new complexion if there is cut in the ground. |
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Make or break for me on Sunday. Surely will be ideal conditions and will be run to suit, so if he flops I'm afraid I will have to turn my back on him
Wonder what jockey arrangements will be... |
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Heff on board!
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Have you backed him Dan ?
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Yeah backed him earlier in the week. Also just had a few quid at 160 for the KG haha. Would be likely target if winning on Sunday surely? Talk about eggs in one basket...
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Yes Aidan will most likely send his best 3yo to Ascot which will probably be who runs best this weekend.
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Hopefully that's Seville then. Are you involved at all?
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His dante run looks better with Pisco sour winning. He could run second to CH again. It's not impossible
he could use Seville as one of the pacemakers for treasure beach, it would be a shameful waste if AOB did it but he's done it before. Jan vermeer who was fav for last years derby and came 4th is now used as a pacemaker. |
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I don't know about being used as a pacemaker, but he should definitely be given a positive ride. Cape Blanco Irish Champion style
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st nicholas abbey or await the dawn going for king george.None of these will,even if they do manage to scrape a win here
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No bet for me Dan. I have him in my TTF list so hope he wins and the booking of Heffernan is the one you would have hoped for.
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