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Seville - Derby
Seville - Derby
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I'm very keen on Seville's chance in the Derby... i have a theory that if the RP Trophy had been run on soft, he would have turned in a performance very similar to those of Motivator and Authorized in the same race....in terms of RPost Ratings, he did on form anyway but had the misfortune to run into a 7f Group 1 winner in Casamento (ie a speedier sort), something that neither Motivator and Authorized had to contend with (Motivator beat a particularly modest bunch, it turned out).
Given Seville's pedigree, he's at least as likely as those 2 to relish the Derby distance. My main concern is that the likes of Recital and Marksmanship are being mentioned for the Derrinstown (which seems Aidan's fav Derby trial)and there's little mention of plans for Seville. (someone's bound to point out that Seville's unlikely to get soft ground on Derby day....to clarify, i dont think he needs soft ground at all, but it would have made the RP Trophy more of a test, which would have suited him) |
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Someone mentioned this horse was not in the group of horses who took part in the Leopardstown and Curragh gallops. Given that plenty of the stable stars were involved, is it possible this one has met with a setback or is just waiting for later season races ?
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1 thing for sure if it crashes in price Eric will be on @ double the odds for KKs
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sintonian, Seville's odds have gradually contracted on here and with the bookies in the last 2 or 3 weeks despite the lack of info, which suggests there's nothing seriously wrong at least, i'd have thought
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A bit worrying though as the same thing happened with Zoffany - not appearing on the gallops, no word from trainer, then taken out of Guineas. Market support obviously a plus though.
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Tom Segal had Seville in his Ten To Follow list on Sunday, so every chance he'll put it up as his ante-post Derby Pricewise in Friday's paper unless the stable quote is offputting (both Paddy P and Victor C have cut it from 10s in last 24 hrs)
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Seville strong/Markmanship strong and Recital on the drift
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like the look of Seville wouldnt mind seeing him going for the Derrinstown instead of the Dante,Carlton House is another intersting contender,form of races both horses ran in seems solid through Native Khan and Yaseer,time APOB had another Derby winner and Seville could well be the one
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I honestly can't see why World Domination and Carlton House are shorter than Seville. Is it purely hype and reports from the gallops?
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they are all shorter than they should be imo.
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'I honestly can't see why World Domination and Carlton House are shorter than Seville. Is it purely hype and reports from the gallops?'
Partly cos nothing has been seen or heard of Seville this spring. If he was confirmed fit and well and on target, he would undoubtedly be shorter. |
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Yeah good point, entered on Sunday in the Derrinstown, so hopefully we will see him then.
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Fingers crossed, Dan
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Has anyone got any news on Seville? Definite drift in the derby betting on here today and now heading in the wrong direction in the Dante betting. Just a reaction to pp pushing out his price or has there been a set back? I know neither drift is that significant yet but it is a slight concern having backed the horse for both races
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Less than 4/1 on here for Dante with money lined up to back
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I still think Seville may be too slow for the Derby. The dam's side looks very stout indeed, with Silver Hawk and Niniski grand and great grandsires (both mayor influences for stamina, and he is by Galileo. He might be okay on testing going but we can wait for that.
Ho could make into a St Leger horse though. If Recital (as it seems) is a dog and Seville is a stayer, where is the Coolmore Derby horse? I suspect it is coming from France myself. |
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Nice try CoT. Way too early to write off Seville. His RPT second showed he is not slow. Did you know it was the fastest RPT in 50 years according to Wikipedia?
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Confirmed for Dante rnl.
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/world-domination-carlton-house-york-seville-cut-to-dispute-dante-favouritism/854511/top/ |
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who will ride him in the dante
if kieren rode recital today because he will be on board at epsom, aob will obviously employ the same tactics on thurs. moore will be riding for stoute so will james be the derby jockey for seville??? |
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whos james?
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heffernan
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he's a good jock but would rather see a top jock up to be honest
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id be almost 100% sure fallon will!! surely they want him on their no 1 at epsom.
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id have thought fallon will ride on thurs then have the choice for the derby.
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lets hope so
the epsom master in the saddle is always a positive |
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Fallon also been riding native khan who will probably go for the derby. Could be Spencer as they have been using him as well
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Seville will be miles too slow for the Derby. Couldn't care less if he finished 2nd in the Racing Post Trophy - Brian Boru won it. The Leger and a Cup campaign beckon.
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resner theyve only had to use spencer on their haye owned horses cos hes his jockey.
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When's O'Brien ever used the Dante for his main Derby hope?
He's had some good runners for sure and more so recently but what happened next and were they any good after? 2010: Cape Blanco 1st: Bombs out French Derby, wins Irish Derby 2009: Black Bear Island 1st: Bombs out Derby never won again, Freemantle 2nd: no show Royal Ascot, never won again 2008: Frozen Fire 2nd: Bombs out Derby, wins Irish Derby, never won again 2007: No Runner 2006: Septimus 1st: Bombs out Derby, subsequently top class stayer 2005: Falstaff 3rd: @ 100/1 Bombs out French Derby last of 17, soon sold, Albert Hall 5th: Bombs out Irish 2000 Guineas, retired 2004: Moscow Ballet 6th: bombs out Prix Jean Prat , subsequent listed winner Seville: Good chance in Irish Derby but avoid on first post Dante start.  |
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'2009: Black Bear Island 1st: Bombs out Derby never won again, Freemantle 2nd: no show Royal Ascot, never won again' both horses passed away unfortunately! |
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Sadly, yes and Septimus too and no idea what happened to Albert Hall.
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''Seville will be miles too slow for the Derby. Couldn't care less if he finished 2nd in the Racing Post Trophy - Brian Boru won it.''
Yes, as did Motivator and Authorized |
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I was slightly concerned that AoB hasnt sent his best horses to the Dante in recent years, however I dont think you can use Cape Blanco to back up this argument. He is clearly top class and didnt go to the Derby as they felt he would be better suited to 10f in the French Derby. He "bombed out" in this due to the going.
O Brien is in great form at the moment, however another concern is that the ones that have put up great displays have already had a run this season. Hopefully Seville runs a good Derby trial on Thursday... |
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Await The Dawn had not ran this season, nor had Tresure Beach, so you'd assume they improve for their runs.
Cape Blanco also won the race last year on seasonal debut.. |
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''Seville will be miles too slow for the Derby. Couldn't care less if he finished 2nd in the Racing Post Trophy - Brian Boru won it.''
Yes, as did Motivator and Authorized' They'd have won the Leger too had they run. Very stoutly bred. Insane amount of stamina, particularly in Authorized's pedigree. I think he could've won an Ascot Gold Cup. |
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I doubt if slow will be Seville's problem. I never liked him at all when he won his maiden but 2 weeks later he almst left me with egg on my face in the Rcaing post.
I'm pretty certain he'll beat Wordd Domination tomorrow but the big question has to be is how good is Carlton House. SMS's aren't firing on all cylinders yet so he'd want to be beating him fairly easily if he's going to win the Derby. His form looks solid if not great and AOB can improve them but as for the Derby I'd be in Carlton House's camp at the moment but very much fear Seville. As for World Domination? just lay him he'll win nothing. |
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soumi rides.
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paddys taking this on like never b4 for the derby normally restricted to smaller stakes now can get on wat i like on this horse they been 10 wen everybody 8 now they 8 and still over the others
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Delighted with the jockey booking!!
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