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Kauto-Hennessy Gold Cup??
Kauto-Hennessy Gold Cup??
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Replies: 532
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I'm a huge Kauto fan but i dont think he could beat Denman at Newbury just like Denman wouldnt beat Kauto at kempton
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I thought the race of the decade was in March. Would Ruby stick with Kauto ?
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Sounds like a right load of nonsense to me. Why risk taking the edge off Kauto to win a G3 handicap when the G1 King George will suit his strengths. Ridiculous.
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Sounds like Clive Smith is looking to pick up the last drippings of prize money out of Kauto before he retires.
Surely his last season with these sort of plans? |
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Yep.
They stated quite clearly he needed breaks between his race two years ago and now all of a sudden they consider the Hennessy. Still, I dont think he will run. |
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Its one of those wher even though it probably isn't the best thing for what is my favourite ever racehorse, I want to see it. I think he'd make a better job of giving the weight than many think, He once gave Monets Garden over a stone(I think) in the Old Roan on his seasonal debut and was only beaten by the narrowest of margins. If he won the Hennessey, it would be the greatest jump racing achievement I've ever seen. Just some oppinions now from people who might know, Off the top of my head I can remember Paul Nicholls saying that Kauto would also have beaten What a Friend at the same weights Denman did when they met in the Hennessey. Ted Walsh who presumably has scrutinised every detail of this horse with his son is of the that it is less a matter of tracks, weights and ground and more a matter of which Kauto turns up, The best Kauto seems to me to be a fresh Kauto and that is what would worry me more than anything else. Perhaps connections think he would not need to be at his best to win another King George and a stab at immortality in the Hennessey is worth taking. Whichever Kauto turns up, his class should see him in the first four home.
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After Kauto won at Ascot and then subsequently lost his GC crown to Denman, Nicholls and Clive said clearly he needs breaks between his races to be at his best. Thus a sparing campaign last season culimating in his highest ever rating in the King George. IF he runs in the Hennessy, kiss good bye to the King George imvho.
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* culminating
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If he runs could this cut the race up badly if so many are out of the handicap? Don't get me wrong I would love to see Denman, What A Friend, Kauto and Neptune Collonges taking each other on but I can't see there would be too many wanting to take them all on out of the weights..
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Even What a Friend will be out of the handicap. He'll be on 9st9lbs.
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After the Ascot race Kauto was lame and missed a week or two's training (I think) that and the fact Denamn was running like a machine in 2008 may have been why Kauto got beat in that Gold Cup.
FWIW the thought of Kauto v Denman (and many other potential improvers) in the Hennessy excites me more than a fifth King George |
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If Denman and Kauto turn up a lot of jockies better start dieting now!
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fecking hell would be the race of the decade.
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If Kauto runs im going, never mind the 3 hours on the train
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and if runs and wins Ben I'll drive you home mate.
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Weights will look something like this:
Kauto Star 11-12 Denman 11-4 Neptune Collonges 10-0 Taranis 9-10 What A Friend 9-9 Madison Du Berlais 9-7 Barbers Shop 9-6 Duc De Regniere 9-6 Silver By Nature 9-6 Carruthers 9-5 The Tother One 9-5 6 of them trained by Nicholls. I've left the Irish trained horses out. |
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Nicholls fancies tatenen i see me too.
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sorry i meant tarranis.
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This just goes to show what a very good chance Kauto Star would have. Basically there are only two form dangers, both from the same stable.
I am guessing that they will run Kauto Star. Reasons: *he has a very decent chance *its probably his last season before age starts to diminish his powers *the trainer is not inclined to wrap him in cotton wool this season * Its the 3rd best (most valuable) chase for stayers of the season after the Gold Cup and National * Its the sense of history trainer and owner have that may be key - they will know all about Arkle and will fancy Kauto to make history * its good timing before the K George * There is nothing to lose and quite a lot to gain by going I personally thought that Denman showed signs of aging last season and there must be a good chance his days are behind him, whilst Kauto possibly put a acreer best last year at Kempton. Kauto would be around a 7/2 favourite if he ran maybe shorter. If he is evens to run, that makes him value at say 8 or 9/1 antepost. |
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Kauto would have an outstanding chance. It would also settle the remaining arguments in the who is best debate with Denman. For me, Kauto would beat him and the rest of the field absolutely hands down.
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Shrew D what weight would Pandorama have off his irish rating?
thanks. |
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It will cost him the King George if they go Hennessy imo. It will upset the tried and tested route and blunt his speed taking the edge off him imo. They should pocket an amazing King George win then go handicapping. Why kill the horses season before it even begins. It does prove Smith reads the antepost forum though imo.
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I don't see why it would kill him for the KG, Eric. Quite a few horses have done the double including one of my favourites Teeton Mill, one of the neatest jumpers of a fence I ever saw.
If brutes like Teeton Mill could do the double I am sure Kauto could. After all, Arkle nearly did the double twice and would have done for sure barring a bad injury the last time he ran. |
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kauto_kauto 01 Nov 10 19:11
Shrew D what weight would Pandorama have off his irish rating? thanks. ------ RP site says it's rated 148 so it'll be off 8-12. Not certain how the Irish rating translate to running over here though. |
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pando would be raised a bit possibly through weapons amnestys rsa win
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Either way if Denman and Kauto show up he would be really up against it.
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Half of me would love to see it, and half would loathe to see it. I understand the point that a Hennessy win off his gargantuan rating would elevate him even further than last year's KG, but it just seems a bit too greedy for my liking. Why not prepare him as planned to win a fifth KG (immortality attached there anyway, I think), and then - if they wanted to bag a big handicap - let him try to win the Racing Post Chase over a track and trip that really suit him and forget the Gold Cup. If it all came good, then the break after the Racing Post Chase would be sufficient to let him have a crack at the Whitbread.
I realise this will almost certainly not happen, but it would be unforgivable to see a horse of his stature well beaten in the KG after a valiant failure to win the Hennessy. By the way, although I am KS's biggest fan, I don't think he could concede 8lb to Denman around Newbury. |
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Kauto is not a weight carrying horse imo and a good youngun in there would pull the sting out of him for Kempton. It affects them in the head as well horses can remember not finishing in front imo if there is a struggle on the cards.
Level weights for speed is Kauto's game and trying to turn him into Arkle could easily end in tears with his season over before it started. Lets say he couldnt give the weight over 3m2f at Newbury and has a very hard race finishing 4th, a trip (3m+) he has struggled to win at even off levels winning think 1 from his last 4 attempts. Where does that leave him for the King George, very tired and an ageing horse looking to find his trademark pace after being given short legs at Newbury. Surely they wont do this? |
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Remember Nicholls pulling the sting out of Azertyuiop running him in the King George a trip above his best. The clock in the horses head was all over the place and his speed blunted for the Queen Mum he couldnt even manage the water jump without a horlicks.
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Have you backed Kauto Star for the King George eric_morris ?
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he's running i think story gathering pace this story/
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just can't see it, common sense should prevail
wouldn't bother me if he did, it'd just make Denman's task all the more easier |
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Kauto is an all time fave of mine but he'd be a great lay if he does run. It would be tight if Denman was giving Kauto 8lbs and not the other way round. 3m2f at Newbury is Denman's playground. Any cut in the ground and I can see him grinding Kauto into the ground.
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^slightly tongue in cheek. [;)]
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I am amazed that anyone would think that Kauto could give weight to Denman over 3m2f at Newbury.
Still all about opinions i guess. Mind you if he does run at least we will know why he was entered!! |
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Their is another way of looking at it though. Maybe they know Denman is struggling!!
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Not sure about the argument that KS is not a weight carrying horse, doesn't he carry around 11-10 every time he runs? Sure the others will be carrying less, but he doesn't know that and he won't be running any slower. Would be great to see, no doubt. Who here really cares if he lands another KG anyway
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They've gone mad if he runs in this.
At best he wins it (highly unlikely I reckon) but with only 4 weeks to the KG that would be such a huge effort I couldn't see him winning on Boxing Day (I have my doubts about that anyway, even if he wins at Down Royal). At worst he finishes 3rd or 4th, on his knees after lugging top weight round. What price a KG win then? |
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Really cant see this happening.
The biggest danger to a 5 time King George is running in the hennessy giving 8lb to Denman over his course would be a huge task. |
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run in the Hennessy .. kiss good bye to the KG imo.
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