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Breeders Cup bets and thoughts
Breeders Cup bets and thoughts
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Replies: 201
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Noble's Promise is running over 6f and Jackson Bend (3rd in the Preakness) over 1m 1/16 in the 2 races before the Marathon tomorrow!
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30% chance from what I can see
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(of rain)
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Interesting that the magic sign are going 6/1 on together.
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Re Lasix: It is a diuretic- this is it's ONLY direct action. The effect of passing more urine, reduces blood volume, which in turn reduces blood pressure, which in turn reduces the risk of bleeding.
We use it in human cardiac patients for the above reasons. Humans (and I'd expect horses) do build a slight resistance to it, but after stopping for a couple of weeks get the same effect again when they re-start. |
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town moor Joined: 30 Nov 07
Replies: 250 04 Nov 10 20:08 Re Lasix: It is a diuretic And a masking agent, allegedly, |
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is it right that behkabad goes without lasix?
if so that has to disadvantage him, no? |
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The more I look at it, the more I think its Quality Road's to lose.
Last year, I lumped on a fortnight before at 16/1 and then the unthinkable happened......he refused to load! I was confident of his chances even on Santa Anita's synthetic but at the same time, was prepared to see him lose. But I never could have predicted what unfolded two minutes before Zenyatta annexed the field! It was hard to take. But this year is a chance for the the horse to redeem himself. And with it, a chance for us to back the winner we should have been collecting on a year ago. :) Took on Zenyatta twelve months ago and going to do the same again. Its interesting and I haven't heard it mentioned too much, but no six year old has ever won the Classic. Then there's the montage of her nineteen wins on YouTube. Yes she's won from almost impossible positions so many times but look at her last three wins and she's just getting there! Just. And not a single Group One winner, past or present, did she beat in any of those three wins. And don't tell me its a case of her doing enough, she's so so lucky to be coming into this race still unbeaten and racing on an a fairly alien surface against seasoned rivals in a much stronger field than last year, well you just got to take her on. Fair play to Smith and Sheriffs if they get her to go 20 for 20. And what about Luckin at Lucky? Who has be beaten? Looked at the Preakness and he won the race by default. Everything in a heap waiting for the line to come and fortunetely, LAL had his head in front at the right time. Its a big ask to go into the Classic and race against older rivals for the first time and win! Has it ever been done? Fair enough he won the Indiana Derby and that win was so easy on the eye but far far more on his plate this time around and he's another I'd have to take on. Look as I say, its all about Pletcher, Johnny V and Quality Road. Forget this stuff about the distance, the two times he was beaten at it, he hated the sloppy tracks. Yes I'd prefer not to be taking a leap of faith but Pletcher is confident and his 9f wins indicate to me its no problem. And we all love a horse who'll run fast, if this race was over 6f, who'd win? A mile? What about the three track records Quality Road has already smashed? He is the fastest horse in the race by a long way. Looking at the opposition, I fear his two adversaries, Blame and Haynesfield the most. Haynesfield probably more as Blame looked to peak in the Whitney and I think only the European raider in 1993 is the only horse to win having finished out of the placings on the most recent prior to Classic victory. Haynesfield, on the other hand, is similiar to Quality Road, front-runner who can go round fast! On the subject of which, I've heard it mentioned that QR will be inconvienced by having the likes of Haynesfield and Espoir City for company in the lead. But following a fast pace early on looks to suit him more! He can stalk and then let loose down the straight. Thats the way I'd like to see it unfold anyway. Let Haynesfield, Espoir City and anyone else off in front and stalk them. Race to savour though and no matter what they outcome, lets hope its a performance to remember! |
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Doesn't last the 10f for me though mate and from stall 1, has a lot on.
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Workforce walked by and not one photographer followed him or took interest....Zenyatta walks past and 60 of them follow her like Paris Hilton. Flippin yanks !
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I agree to a point Viva, Quality Road definitely not to be underestimated. Wouldn't be so quick to write off Lucky though.
If they can both get decent breaks to take maybe 4th and 5th at the first turn we're in for a great race. All depends on the break though as I think it'll be very hard to come from off the pace in this race. There are potentially 10 or 11 close to top class animals in the field and a lot of them won't be stopping. Zenyatta and Blame (and Fly Down) have it all to do. I could easily envisage a scenario where Zenyatta has to come 6 or 7 wide at the final turn and has 5 or 6 lengths to make up with the leader and still has to pass Quality Road, Lucky, Espoir City, Haynesfield, Paddy O'Prado etc etc. Even the likes of Musket Man is a really good honest horse and could be running on. These aren't Switch or Rinterval or St Trinians! 2/1 not to place or 2/1 to win.... hmmm I've backed QR, Lucky, place layed Zenyatta and will be using probably 2 of Musket Man, Paddy and Espoir to fill out my trifectas. |
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Viva, i not sure if you being fair to zen saying she lucky to be coming here unbeaten.
she is 19/19 ffs, trainer should take a lot of credit imo proper plan at the start of every campaign leading up to BC i dont think there are 10/11 top class animals in here i think this is no better a race than last year, whats happened is last years race is being played down simply because zen won from an impossible possy im sure it will be a great race with the right result GL if your playing (i havent made my mind up yet) |
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I'm not sure how you don't think this is a better race than last year andy.
You have winners of the Preakness, Woodward, Haskell, Jockey Club Gold Cup and Whitney, ie. all the major trials and all run on dirt, in the field. Last year off the top of my head the only winner of one of the above races was Summer Bird who'd never run on the synthetics before. |
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i take your point tav,
however i dont think its as simple as you suggest because of the different surfaces in terms of turf and synthetics ratings last years bunch were top quality also the top dirt races have all been contested by much the same horses but something different wins each time, i.e. no real star just very good performers and i think there is a difference. i dont have an earthly how i am gonna play the race come saturday GL |
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Crown of thorns out of dirt mile
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Good luck all.
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And you Tav, been a good thread for the build up
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not a good race, but my two are far better than the rest imo. so
zeyatta 6/5 should be set up for her . 3yos not so good either. quality road, should get home , speed stamina is what's required 3/1. cannot vote for anything else bar these two |
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had £30 e.w on Beethoven, just a feeling about it at the odds(run at Ascot may be underrated) , good luck with bets tonight
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Goldi - what a fkn superstar!!!!
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A truly brilliant mare, best I've seen.
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Figgis - Goldi is a superstar but dosen't it just make you think how good Zarkava must have been - such a shame she was retired at 3.
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No I'm absolutely sure that Goldikova improved after getting beaten by Zarkava, whether Zarkava would've improved can only be guessed at, connections obviously thought not.
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Goldi's improved loads, Zarkava probably was retired because they felt she had developed as far as they could with her.
Well done Sint and others with Midge  |
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Kudos to you aswell Ben. Dare I say I tucked into Blame aswell after Midge Won
 Think we discussed him on this thread also. |
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Goldikova is literally a machine. Best miler i've seen, even better than Cockney Rebel
 And how good a jockey is Garret Gomez ?! Unreal Jockey. |
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Well another disappointing end to a BC for me!
Was that Quality Road's true running? I've trouble believing it was. Its a pity. He has the capability to run so so fast but I don't think he fired tonight. He was bet long before he stepped into the distance unknown so can't blame that, overcame his bad draw with considerable ease and looked relaxed and ready before start so can't blame either of those two factors. Maybe he isn't good enough after all? I don't know. |
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Stunning performance from Goldikova - toyed with the opposition.
Mik Smith on Zenyatta - dear oh dear. If you waste that much ground early on in the race you need to be sure you're on a Pegasus - amazing thing is that Zenyatta almost was. |
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Cheers sint
 QR helped set the ridiculously strong pace Viva, they all took each other on for it and ultimately paid the price. Which is why Mike Smith was right to take a pull on Zenyatta, she was closed up enough approaching the final turn to make her move in good time and her style has always been conducive to potential bad luck, a big field would exacerbate that. If he'd had her more prominent she wouldn't have finished like a train. |
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Surely just a head more prominent wouldn't have blunted her finishing kick?
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IMO Zenyatta used up too much gas making up ground in the back straight - she was in the correct position at the "top of the stretch" but due to the effort in getting there did not have quite enough to get past Blame. Smith was right to hold her up - but not to have her detached with several lengths daylight between her and the field - I've never seen a big race won from that position.
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Yeah but horses aren't cars, he was switching her off out back and she probably didn't realise what was going on and started to pull herself up, perhaps that was a mistake on his part but if he hadn't have tried slowing her down she would have got too wound up early in the race (was very moody beforehand) and as I said she wouldn't have finished in typical fashion. Looking at the pace, they went fast for the first 3 quarters of a mile then the pace dropped away, she caught them up at this moment and from there on in was on a level playing field. Traffic is part of racing and if she'd raced in bigger fields more often she wouldn't be undefeated for so long, nearly got beat on her previous start in California if you watch the race.
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She's lost nothing in defeat from me. Great for the sport as well.
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I laid her, ben, only to small stakes, but I have no doubts that I got lucky.
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Figgis, as they say, that's racing. We've all been on the end of it before and we've all had it go for us, just part of the great game.
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It certainly is, but I don't think the jockey should be excused, it was a dumb ride.
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I couldn't believe what I was watching,tbh. It was a little bit surreal watching it Live.
The jockey said she took a while to get used to the dirt surface in the first part of the race, which is why she allowed to hang out the back like that. |
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Dancing Brave's Derby run has alwways been my best example of a race in which the best horse by far was beaten by lying too far out of ground. Now there is an even better example to use.
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I don't believe for a second that a jockey can give a horse that much to her rival and for people to say there was nothing wrong with it because of her style. He misjudged it by lengths and given her finish she would have won if it wasn't for borderline arrogance.
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I've never seen anything like it - thought she must have hurt herself in the stalls and expected her to pull up. Smith wasn't niggling at her at all - clearly lying way off the back was deliberate. Astonishing decision.
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