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Breeders Cup bets and thoughts
Breeders Cup bets and thoughts
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Replies: 201
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There have been mixed messages Ben......
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Fair enough, could be an interesting one, although in general I'm looking to go against Arc meeting runners (probably just no bet in the mile)
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Funnily enough beaten osses have done better, Goldi , Conduit latest ones
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Anyone know if Byword is running in the classic....if he is i might have a small punt somewhere along the lines.
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No idea re: Byword, I guess if Workforce runs in the Turf he might go for the Classic. Wouldn't give him any chance in the Classic but at a decent price on fast ground he could run well in the Turf.
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Had a good look at the Ladies Classic today.
Hard to know what size of field it will be, a big field could really damage Blind Luck's chances. She does look very good but there is absolutely nothing between her and Havre De Grace, a neck and a nose the first 2 times to Blind Luck the Havre De Grace stole the race last time when Blind Luck got checked in running. Would pretty much fancy Blind Luck to win again but she's already raced 8 times this season, and this will be 11th race since Santa Anita last year, that is a tough campaign. The one I really like is Life at Ten. Don't really see any point in getting involved at 6/1 antepost though. She won 6 straight before the Personal Ensign where she and Rachel Alexandra went off at a crazy pace and she tired badly to finish 3rd beaten 11 lengths by the eventual winner Persistently. Beat that one easily next time in the Beldame. Can't see her being a lot shorter than 5/1 or so on the day so will wait. |
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Do they decide today if Workforce is going to run ?
F&G definitely out, ditto Cape Blanco. |
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Think its Saturday that they decide Sint, do i take the punt and back my fancy now ??
The only way the price will go is down if he doesnt run |
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Not sure I'd be backing him on fast ground anyway
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Who is your fancy zilzal? Sarafina?
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Thought that if she went it would be the Filly and Mare turf to take on Midday, i remember reading it somewhere as they thought that the distance would suit her better.
Although i cant Remember where i saw it. Id fancy Behkarad myself at present, think the arc was about horses being at the right place at the right time the way the race panned out |
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Does he definitely run?
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Oh right good, fancy him myself. I can see the the attraction of Dangerous Midge but if the front 2 turn up it's surely between them.
He's not likely to get any bigger than the 7/2 now and if Workforce was to come out on Saturday you'd have to think that price will half. |
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Its all up in the air at present Ben but the vibes look good from what i read.
I've backed Dangerous Midge at 14s just for the reason that the market could collapse if both do come out, its a hard market to guess at present and things could change wildly as the 1st five in the betting could come out(or unlikely to run) Workforce Behkarad Sans Frontieres Joshua Tree Arctic Cosmos Could leave Gio Ponti near fav and then its a different ball game altogether |
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I'm having a look to see what i've backed. Obviously RVW is retired so that one is out the window. I should state that sometimes when my ante posts are done i usually get a feeling that something i haven't backed will run a big race, and on this occasion that horse is Espoir City at 16/1...but i've made my own bed so i'll lie on it. Aside from interests in the Classic i have Paco Boy and Behkabad.
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Most recent quote I can find by JC Rouget. It's from L'Equip and 6 days old.
Behkabad est très bien rentré de sa course. Le cheval est bien, on va présenter cela tranquillement, j'espère qu'il courra bien. Les numéros de corde son importants sur ces hippodromes qui sont de véritables tourniquets, ce ne sont pas des champs de course faciles pour les jockeys. La Breeders' Cup Turf est plus valorisant que les courses japonaises en vue d'une possible entrée au haras. My French isn't great by any means, but I make it, he's well, has come back from the Arc well and is relaxed, I hope he'll run well. Don't really get the 2nd sentence but I think it's something like, these tracks are very difficult for the jockeys with judging the factions of something. The Breeders Cup turf is more valuable than going to a Japanese course looking for a possible place to go to stud. |
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Can't see Gio Ponti running in this, he's unlikely to get the trip, reckon 10f is the limit of his stamina.
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Gio Ponti going for the mile Zil I think, after his last run
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Im going to have to take the plunge on him, he's not going to get longer even if workforce does get confirmed and , as you say there is every chance of a price collapse
Could play with laddies as well in a double as they are the last of the 4/1 Zenyatta |
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Good luck zil
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Cheers Ben
Although its not in this country i think that this meeting is a great way to end the flat season, its become one of my highlights of the year in fact. Its probably due to the fact that ive done quite well at the meeting though  |
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i agree with that totally zil, for me its a great end of season meeting... i've only done ok punting wise but its great racing
couple of earlier posters mentioned that they fancy behkabad, as do i, surely he wont get any shorter even if workforce does run. and workforce had a much harder race than behkabad, sounds from connections that they are keen to run, all in all 7/2 is quite appealing, im in!  |
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Completely agree too, great way to end the flat racing season.
Can't say I've ever done really well at it though! Few close misses.... and still haven't gotten over Tiago running down Curlin and denying me the trifeta a couple of years ago! |
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Behkabad is obviously a high class animal but it would worry me on two counts, firstly as far as i can see he only raced righthanded the turf is on a left hand 7f oval? secondly the ground will more likely than not be faster than he ever raced on before?
so even if workforce not 100% to run i dont think behkabad such great value, for these reasons at 7/2 i am out |
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Last year was the worse ive done for a while, best was in 03 (Johar) and 08 (Ravens/Henry exacta)
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behkabad has raced left handed once andy
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Artic Cosmos is out injured.
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that correct themanwho
3rd in a lstd event on seasonal reappearance still dont think it value to win a bc event you have to run to near or at your best, imo he wont have conditions to suit |
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andy it looks such a weak race, outside the front 2 to me that, i am willing to rake a chance backing him at his arc price.
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Getting quite bullish about Midge now, put in a shocker in the Ebor but before and after marked him out as a horse with a bit of class. Sure Meehan will be reaching for the Lasix also
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Heres a decent little site with replays all on the same page, it has one for each event
http://www.horseracingnation.com/race/2010_Breeders_Cup_Mile_G1 |
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Ben, didn;t he find trouble in the Ebor also ?
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He got hampered and had 9st10, finished 8th, pretty decent all things considered imo.
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Didn't stay either
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agreed at this stage it doesnt look a race chock full of superstars but i still say something will have to run big to win whatever turns up
bek may well win the race but at this stage i dont think conditions will be such that he will run to the level reqd dangerous midge looks to have a real turn of foot, has shown liking for quick ground and likes racing left handed (trainer comment following ascot run). His trainer seems pretty certain this is the right race for him so imo dm at 12s wud be better value than bek at 7/2 |
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yeah i understand what your saying about possible fast conditions, but thats the chance i take.... i dont think dangerous midge will finish in front of bekhabad what ever the conditions
either way andy its going to be fun finding out |
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amen to that, always a great meet
GL |
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Sarafina finished for the year. I think they are missing a great opportunity.
Workforce is going to run. |
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I think they would be better keeping Workforce on next year and missing the Breeders Cup. In fact i see no point in them running an Arc winner in this race. He's already beaten Behkabad and the fast ground(if it is that) may not be in his favour.
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If they were mine he'd be going for the Classic, Midday would go for the Turf and Proviso the Filly and Mare Turf.
Would probably go 0/3 but I'd still be a millionaire anyway! |