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Tavaris Jackson
10 Oct 10 11:10
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Date Joined: 23 Nov 06
| Topic/replies: 1,995 | Blogger: Tavaris Jackson's blog
Not had much on antepost myself but reckon it's time to really be getting stuck in now.

Only 3 I've backed now are:

Classic: Quality Road 1pt 8/1
Juv Fillies: Tell A Kelly .5pt 10/1
Mile: Sidneys Candy 1 pt 12/1

Would be nice to know a bit more about the planned participation of some of the European horses.

Have gone off Quality Road a bit now for the Classic, can't see him running a bad race but just can't see him staying strongly enough to hold them all off.

Considering adding Lookin' at Lucky now, anyone got any opinions on what way the prices are likely to go? He'll surely never be bigger than 4/1 again, will he?
I'm assuming that the Americans will send Zenyatta off fav again, wasn't she about the same price now for last years race before opening in America and going off around evens.

I'll be place laying her anyway.


Could be plenty of place value behind Midday in the Filly and Mare turf if you knew which of those in the market are likely runners. Sarafina would be very interesting if she's going over there. Red Desire is very interesting too as I assume she's a certain runner, wasn't beaten far on her US debut after a near 6 month break.

As for the Mile, I can't really see why Sidneys Candy isn't 2nd fav. He should be about 6/1 imo. Chances are that he can't beat Goldikova but he certainly can beat those ahead of him in the market. Poets Voice isn't going, right? Paco Boy and Rip have had their chances and I'd have thought Rip goes for the Classic again anyway, Gio Ponti is a very good horse and was impressive last night but he's not going to win a battle with Goldikova.
Sidneys Candy breaks well and if he has a lead coming into the straight might just hold on.

No idea re: the Ladies Classic yet but wouldn't be taking a short price on Blind Luck.
No idea either about the sprints or the Turf until we have more of an idea about likely runners.

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By:
TD_Gunner
When: 13 Oct 10 10:32
Just Lookin At Lucky in the Classic for me so far.

Like the look of Dangerous Midge in the Turf, very impressive last time and Meehan has won it before with Red Rocks.

Can't see past Goldikova in the Mile, she'll win easily.
By:
Tavaris Jackson
When: 13 Oct 10 12:13
Just looking at previous Breeders' Cups run in Churchill to try get an idea of what the likely ground may be on the turf course.

2006: firm
2000: firm
1998: firm
1994: firm
1991: good
1988: good

Ground description taken from the RP database so draw your own conclusions as to accuracy, should be good though at least unless there is unseasonably bad weather in Kentucky.
By:
TD_Gunner
When: 13 Oct 10 12:33
In regards to prices for the Classic, would imagine that Zenyatta will only shorten as the hype goes into overdrive leading up to the race.
By:
toderav
When: 13 Oct 10 13:26
im big Zenyatta fan, everytime ladcrooks ease to 5/1 i have had a top up. The trip should be ideal (further the better) they should go quick fractions here and i cant see the surface being an issue
By:
sintonian
When: 13 Oct 10 15:39
like Danegerous Midge aswell Gunner and Meehan had no hesitation in nominating this race for him straight after his win at Newbury. 16/1 is top price, which is alright imo for an eachway poke given won or two are likely to drop out. Im not convinced Workforce will go, he has had two tough races this season and see no reason to send him over.

reservation for Midge would be the ground .. never raced on worse than Good but it appears he may have that anyway.
By:
Tavaris Jackson
When: 13 Oct 10 16:35
Thought long and hard about taking that 5/1 about Behkabad for the Turf yesterday. Would be a cracking bet if Workforce is an unlikely runner.
I'd be surprised if Dangerous Midge was good enough for this, 16/1 might be decent if Workforce and maybe Fame and Glory plus another couple come out but even then I'd have him as an unlikely winner.

Paddy OPrado isn't good enough either, Gio Ponti surely won't run, Winchester and Debussy decent but not top class.

Going to take 1 point on Bekhabad at 4's.
By:
Curious_George
When: 14 Oct 10 19:14
Fame and Glory NR in the turf injured
 
Quality Road - pletcher pleased with his last work out. im on also
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/59300/several-post-pre-bc-works-at-belmont
By:
jbarnes (no not him)
When: 14 Oct 10 20:27
im really sweet on winter memories for the breeders cup juvenille

was very impresssive in a grade 3 last time and being trained by low key jimmy toner will hopefully be underestimated this side and possibly that side of the pond

s james 14-1 is only price at moment and im happy to wait for bigger next week

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9wLyZFrkzB4 is the debut win

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l5WUUQcPcqM and thats the grade 3

go on you lovely grey
By:
boar
When: 15 Oct 10 00:01
Where was the news on Fame and Glory?

I really think Red Desire is decent each way value
in the F & M at 10-1. She should get the faster ground
that she needs to produce her best form. Her Flower
Bowl run was decent enough for a filly who been off
the track for several mths running on unsuitable ground
and, most importantly, she will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux
rather than a Japanese jockey.
By:
sintonian
When: 15 Oct 10 15:18
Interesting jb will have a look.

FAME AND GLORY is far from certain to run in the Breeders' Cup Turf at Churchill Downs next month, according to trainer Aidan O'Brien.

The four-year-old was an unlucky-in-running fifth in the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe on his last start and O'Brien said on Friday: "It's quite possible that Fame And Glory won't be going to the Breeders' Cup. He had quite a hard race in the Arc and while we haven't made a final decision yet, he might be finished for the season.

"There is a chance that he will remain in training next year."
By:
ben10
When: 15 Oct 10 15:21
JB, she goes for the juvenile fillies turf I think?
By:
Viva Pataca
When: 15 Oct 10 15:22
Just Bekhabad and Quality Road for me so far.
By:
ben10
When: 15 Oct 10 15:24
Quality Road's racing style perhaps an issue, think Espoir City will be taking him on and they'll set it up for a closer, possibly Blame or Zenyatta, thoughts?
By:
sintonian
When: 15 Oct 10 15:33
according to Mark Johnson (the commentator), Blame was given a shocking ride lto. He fancies it.
By:
ben10
When: 15 Oct 10 15:48
I saw the last race live, winner set his own fractions. Blame needs a strong pace as he likes to be held up so that run can be ignored. Basic handicapping suggests he still has it all to do with QR but with an even stronger pace plus natural improvement likely that could make the difference
By:
jbarnes (no not him)
When: 17 Oct 10 09:09
sorry ben10 your right
By:
Sir
When: 18 Oct 10 10:54
I put a small amount up on Workforce at 16.0 and it was taken.
Does anyone know if Workforce is out.
By:
sintonian
When: 18 Oct 10 10:57
they are not making a decision until later this week. Only people who will know are the yard.
By:
ben10
When: 18 Oct 10 11:21
Have just backed Dangerous Midge at 14/1. Looks well on the up and I have a strong feeling this race will cut up badly.
By:
sintonian
When: 18 Oct 10 11:41
that's what I was thinking Ben.
By:
sintonian
When: 18 Oct 10 11:51
stupidly I didn't take the 16/1 with lads when I posted, they are now 10/1, probably after Rainbow Peaks win yesterday, but i've just had a few quid eachway at 14/1 ..

Even if Workforce does run .. im not entirely sure he'll be at his best ..

Paddy O Prado is the other i'd consider st this satge, at the prices, bacause he had possible ground excuses lto.
By:
shockster
When: 18 Oct 10 19:55
Just wait for The Weekender on the Wednesday before and follow Nick Mordin.  He's absolutely brilliant at this meeting.  I hate following tipsters, however wouldn't dream of betting on this meeting without his opinions.
By:
Horsesforcourses
When: 18 Oct 10 20:28
Personally all over Red Desire to beat Midday in the F&M @10s

Re POP Sint, I read this on Sat...

Romans added that the Breeders’ Cup status of stablemate Paddy O’Prado remains undecided. His owner, Jerry Crawford of Donegal Racing, is weighing whether to start the colt in the Breeders’ Cup Turf or the Nov. 28 Japan Cup.

“I told Jerry I’d like to know by the end of the week,” Romans said.

One of the most dominant turf runners in America, Paddy O’Prado is targeted for a breeze next Saturday, two days before pre-entries need to be made on Monday, Oct. 25.
By:
Graeme83
When: 18 Oct 10 20:37
Gimme a countdown till Zenyatta pulls out with a 100 % record
By:
Tavaris Jackson
When: 18 Oct 10 20:51
Is Lucky taking a bit of a walk in the market?
By:
top3 makin ahern and de souza
When: 18 Oct 10 21:01
im off to the bc meeting and at this stage dangerous midge goldikova and zenyatta asides im struggling to get a handle on it im looking to oppose midday but will have to wait to see what takes her on [whats the latest on the crack french fillies]
By:
Sir
When: 19 Oct 10 07:02
could someone please tell me whether there is a page with maps of the turf and dirt tracks at Churchill Downs
By:
sintonian
When: 19 Oct 10 08:01
cheers HFC .. hope they go to Japan then ..
By:
ben10
When: 19 Oct 10 12:38
Have one lined up in the F&M turf at hopefully a big price, Phola loves a strong pace and this race could play right into her hands.
By:
sintonian
When: 19 Oct 10 14:40
Ben, I just read someones views on sporting life website, The Marksman .. never read him before but i'll post it here anyway ..

Dangerous ploy to follow Arc winners in Breeders' Cup

Workforce is reported by my sources to be bang on course to make the trip to Churchill Downs for the Breeders' Cup Turf and is a red-hot favourite.

He completed an easy piece of work over seven furlongs on the Al-Bahathri gallop last Saturday under Ryan Moore, proving his wellbeing by pulling two or three lengths clear of his lead horse.

It was the first time Workforce had been seen in his faster paces since his brilliant win at Longchamp gave Sir Michael Stoute a long overdue success in the premier middle-distance race in Europe.

However, the Breeders' Cup Turf could be a step too far as Arc winners have a terrible record at the meeting and Workforce seems to need plenty of time between races.

He flopped in the King George after his brilliant Epsom Derby success and a chance conversation with trainer Willie Muir at Newmarket has alerted me to another British raider in the race worth backing.

The trainer's son-in-law Martin Dwyer, who is out injured until the end of the season with a broken thumb and shoulder, named Brian Meehan's Dangerous Midge as the one horse he had been most looking forward to riding in the States.

The Classic-winning jockey fancies this improving four-year-old for the Turf and it is not hard to see why after he showed a smart turn of foot to score in Group 3 company at Newbury last time.

He burst four lengths clear of Rainbow Peak off a steady pace and the runner-up has since franked the form by winning a Group 1 in Italy for Michael Jarvis.

Dwyer, meanwhile, had his spirits lifted when his beloved Everton sent Liverpool crashing down into second bottom place in the Premiership but I'm told he has been a very difficult patient at home.

His wife, Claire, delivered the ultimate put-down on a recent car journey to her 'back seat' driving husband after he issued his 100th instruction, saying: 'Why don't you drive? Oh you can't, can you!'
By:
andyd08
When: 19 Oct 10 14:58
bit of a negative that dwyer will not be available for dangerous midge

who do we think will take the ride? maybe frankie? he has ridden for meehan at this meeting prev
By:
sintonian
When: 19 Oct 10 15:09
No idea tbh. Could be Fallon ..
By:
top3 makin ahern and de souza
When: 19 Oct 10 15:38
frankie has been lined up according to the post
By:
andyd08
When: 19 Oct 10 17:37
frankie would be good imo

nick mordin has interesting view on dangerous midge and his chance in the turf

dont always see it nick's way but i can see some merit in what he is saying

dont agree that dm will be a lot bigger nearer the off however, as as someone already suggested on here i reckon this could cut up a bit
By:
Tavaris Jackson
When: 20 Oct 10 13:16
Hard work trying to find Espoir City's races on youtube!
He looked very impressive in the Japan Cup Dirt and the 2 races after that but was well beaten last time out.

Has got to be a bit of a worry that he's never gone further than 9f (according to the RP anyway, don't know exact distances he's raced).

Threw together a bit of a playlist
http://www.youtube.com/view_play_list?p=BD4FB3B28381075A
By:
Fantastic Light
When: 20 Oct 10 17:15
Sarafina surely has a massive chance, was murdered in the Arc and will be very tough beat
on faster ground. Would smash the 12/1 if I was sure she was running.
By:
zilzal1
When: 20 Oct 10 17:37
Agree with the above poster
By:
themanwho
When: 20 Oct 10 17:46
12's on sarafina would be sweet, but i dont think they are considering running her are they? havnt heard anything but they have come out and said behkabad is going.... this would lead me to think she isnt being considered, i hope im wrong though.
By:
ben10
When: 20 Oct 10 18:21
Thought Sarafina was going to Hong Kong or somewhere like that?
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