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Figgis, Figgis,Figgis !!
I'm afraid you have demonstrated how little you know about the subject, go back and read your replies and you'll realise the big clanger you've dropped. If you're gonna bluff your way through a thread make sure what you say makes a little bit of sense. |
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Figgis 20 Oct 10 12:24
Pedrobob Have a look at the time differences between the first 2 races and the Cheveley Park, there is definitely around a 10lbs slow down. Wrongly or rightly, Figgis, I've used the same going correction for the first 3 races that day, and allowed 6lbs for the Middle Park (after listening to your previous wise words). That meant I had Hooray improving 10lbs on her previous best, and the 2nd and 4th, Rimth and Ragsah running to previous form or shade of improvement. I was not prepared to give Cityscape a Group 1 speed figure, which his 7 length win suggested he was entitled to, and like the Middle PArk, am assuming the others just did not show up for the gig. I will review some sectionals of that race and see whether a mistaken view. Figgis 20 Oct 10 12:38 I agree that most of the other Middle Park runners didn't run to form, but that still doesn't mean Dream Ahead didn't run a big figure. My view was that Dream Ahead ran just an ok figure for a Group 1 2yo over 6f at this time of year, but somewhere closer to the 115-116 mark, well short of the 128 that the official handicapper came up with. That doesn't mean he's not capable of 128 in the future as obviously did it well. But a lot of people got carried away with his 9 length win there, assuming he had quickened away from a decent field, when in fact the sectionals appeared to show that he maintained an even gallop - accelerating very slightly into the dip and decelerating slightly up the hill. |
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Frankel won the Dewhurst in a strong even pace posting a better final time performance (124 vs 118) than at Ascot but with a lower projection of 128 vs 135 which I gave him in the R.Lodge because of his strong finishing burst at Ascot. To my mind the horse is better at 8f now; whether he will stay further I can't say at this point from the figs.
He is as good a 2yr old as you are likely to see and it is highly unlikely that anything better will emerge before the 2000Gns. Backing him now is effectively a bet on him getting to the race well prepared. Collateral handicappers take several races to reach the conclusions that can be reached earlier using time figs and sectionals. Once they have a horse pinned they are not far out. Where collateral ratings are of very little help is in judging potential for improvement. |
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Pedrobob, the view you're taking on Dream Ahead is a reasonable one. When the ground slows during a meeting it can sometimes be difficult to pinpoint exactly where the changes occurred, particularly when 2yo races are involved. Looking at the races following the Middle Park, I'm adamant the ground had slowed. Whether it slowed significantly before the Middle Park can only be a matter of judgement. Some people have questioned such as Timeform rating the performance so highly but in my view it's just as reasonable to estimate that the ground did slow after the Cheveley Park.
No idea what you are on about Grendel, but seeing as you rate Frankel's Doncaster win already higher than the last 3 Guineas winners, I think I'd rather keep it that way. |
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Sandown, I agree with you about Frankel's ability, but don't you think you're under estimating the possibilty that something at least as good could emerge on Guineas day? Henrythenavigator, for instance, improved substantially from 2 to 3. Even if it is just a matter of Frankel getting to the race well prepared, the chances of that are more odds against than odds on imo.
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I must say I think he is an odds on chance, unlike many on here and in the media who think 6/4 is very poor value.
The last 2 runs make Frankel a 128 horse. His first main target is the guineas. Henry is going to take no chances and go for the Greenham to sharpen him up and take the freshness out of him. His form is pretty outstanding, and apparently it is backed up by time figures that I do not pretend to follow closely anymore. It seems to me that Frankel can be rated at least 126 and his ability may be some way better than he has shown. he had a rotten race in the Dewhurst, adn Henry looked very cross that he had not been able to show what he can really do. If the same frankel turns up at HQ, he would be long odds on to win and the chances of that are pretty short. I would not be Frankel layer at odds against now. The chances of anything we have seen improving past him are very remote, and something coming from left field out of a maiden equally remote. |
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Cryoftruth, no offence, we all get it wrong, but didn't you say the same about Crowded House and St Nic?
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Figgis
As I've said, I believe that Frankle is capable of posting a rating in the mid 130's, I beleive that 8f is his best trip at present, he can handle soft and fast grnd and the chances of anything improving past him come May are slight, albeit not impossible. So, for once, I agree with cryoftruth. |
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Figgis Joined: 28 Sep 04
Replies: 695 20 Oct 10 12:24 Pedrobob Have a look at the time differences between the first 2 races and the Cheveley Park, there is definitely around a 10lbs slow down. Figgis Joined: 28 Sep 04 Replies: 695 20 Oct 10 12:51 Can't have that Cityscape's race can use the same allowance as Hooray's. It would either mean that Cityscape is brilliant (he's been underrated in his last 2 runs but I wouldn't go that far) or Hooray ran much slower than she has before, which would make no sense. spot the flaw in the logic! |
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Both statements look consistent to me, Grendel.
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Sandown
What would you say are the average chances of a horse training on from 2 to 3? Good 2yos like Teofilo, Crowded House, Ibn Khaldun and SNA, while I accept you probably didn't rate them as highly as Frankel, didn't even manage to hold their form the next season. |
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Id have to agree with figgis here, i just think that he is an exceptional 2yo and his trainer made a point of that after the Royal Lodge.
I also think that Dream Ahead will prove difficult to keep sound and that Saamid's temper wont improve with age. This makes it a very interesting winter |
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Raceform has going correction the same for Cityscapes race and Hoorays race, for the day they have
1 0.53 2 0.53 3 0.53 4 0.68 5 0.68 6 0.83 7 0.83 8 0.83 In their opinion the ground slowed 0.15 following the Cheveley Park, something i'm not going to buy into as its virtually uncalculable for the two races given their nature, the last 3 races were over longer and I did give a slower allowance as they were significantly slower than the previous 5. For Cityscape, Hooray and Dream Ahead I had their performances improved on their best by 6.75l,6l and 6l respectively which is fair enough given it was a lightly raced 4yo and two 2yo's |
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Figgis
I don't know but I'm saying that if he gets there in good shape then he should win not that he represents an A/P bet at his current price. |
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Ok, Sandown, fair enough [;)]
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im going full bank
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What price for City Of Troy if he shows up? 1/3 or less?
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With the benefit of hindsight, there was some proper drivel posted about Frankel on this thread
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There have been so many overhyped flat horses down the years and it is easy to understand that every time Frankel ran, someone was willing to lay him. It must have been expensive if you started after his Newmarket maiden win. I backed Nathaniel that day but never opposed Frankel again. How often does the winner of the Guineas, St James Palace etc. come up against a King George winner first time out and beat it. Another example of 2 Group winners fighting out a maiden both first time out was when Phoenix Reach was beaten by Norse Dancer but PR turned out to be far superior when going up in distance.
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I bow to nobody in my admiration for HRAC, not least for his handling of fragile/temperamental types such as Fairy Footsteps and Slip Anchor, but I do think Frankel would have achieved more on the racecourse in the hands of Aiden O’Brien and Coolmore. For context, an accumulator on Paddington this season already pays 150/1.
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Do you seriously think that any trainer of a Group 1 horse calculates the accumulator betting odds when deciding where to run the horse? If you are trying for a treble on the same day in grade 5 races for a gambling owner then may be but Frankel? The objective was to keep winning Group 1 races in GB and choosing the next suitable race after each win. Paddington was only at attractive odds because his form was modest to start with.
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