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Frankel 8-11 fav For Dewhurst.
Frankel 8-11 fav For Dewhurst.
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Replies: 220
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I think that it might be better to back Frankel and Saamidd. The reason for this is that I half expect connections to withdraw Dream Ahead. The going is already good and the forecast is for no rain at all to speak of - it will be just on the fast side of good. I personally have a little concern for Frankel, back to 7 furlongs and running against really top horses for the first time, but I am pretty sure Dream Ahead needs give, and connections have made it clear he won't run if there is any chance of it being good to firm, and it will be pretty close to being just that.
If dream ahead misses the race the odds about Frabnkel and Saamidd will shorten very considerably. |
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just back saamidd imo
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just back frankel...
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i like frankel but hes too short on what hes achieved against much stiffer competition. if he wins, great!
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apparently the indentity of the mystery galloping companion who frankel blew away the other day has been revealed....
its saamid!  |
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all the talk about this race and the obvious bet is a good old e/w thieve.
Saamidd e/w. No danger of not staying, settles lovely and is 5-1! Could easily be the best horse in the race too. All this lump on at 4-7, or e/w a probable sprinter is complicating everything. Clean and simple, e/w the horse with laughing boy on it's back. THE ONLY SENSIBLE BET. |
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I would be more inclined to place lay Saamidd than back him here I'm afraid
Doesn't float my boat at all in amongst Frankel and Dream Ahead Form of his maiden win isn't working out, placed horses have both been beaten a number of times since and are rated in the low 80's. If you consider the times of his wins in comparison with other races on the cards at Newbury and Doncaster then they don't suggest the horse is top class to me. |
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cryoftruth
Joined: 22 Mar 04 Replies: 425 13 Oct 10 22:02 I think that it might be better to back Frankel and Saamidd. The reason for this is that I half expect connections to withdraw Dream Ahead. The going is already good and the forecast is for no rain at all to speak of - it will be just on the fast side of good. I personally have a little concern for Frankel, back to 7 furlongs and running against really top horses for the first time, but I am pretty sure Dream Ahead needs give, and connections have made it clear he won't run if there is any chance of it being good to firm, and it will be pretty close to being just that. If dream ahead misses the race the odds about Frabnkel and Saamidd will shorten very considerably. Dream Ahead confirmed for Dewhurst by Simcock DREAM AHEAD was on Wednesday confirmed as a runner in Saturday's Dubai Dewhurst, therefore confirming that the all-star clash between Frankel, Saamidd and the David Simcock-trained juvenile will take place. Simcock told the Racing Post on Wednesday: "He had a blow over six furlongs, everything went grand and he did exactly what was asked. |
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of course as we know...... plans do change.
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PFtrader
I appreciate that Saamidd has not yet done a time that proves much, and your point is fair enough. Trouble is that he has only run twice and as a horse that comes from behind, he can hardly be faulted for his performances on the clock as he has no control over the pace the races he has trotted up in were run. I am of the view that he will be well suited to a fast run race as it will make his turn of foot very effective. However there is a chnace that he will just get worn out by a relentless gallop and have nothing left in the last furlong. I am sure your analysis of his maiden form is fine, but a bit like Frankel's first 2 (and even his third runs) he could only slaughter the dross that was put before him. The win at Doncaster is a bit harder to knock as he just slaughtered a decent field including I think the impressive winners of both Gimcrack and Acomb Stakes and others. Irrespective of the time of his win at Doncaster, you just don't beat a filed as good as that in the style that he did without being pretty good. As I say he could still be anything and does seem highly regarded. I am sorry the race has cut up so badly. As i was very busy today my idea of nicking the each way 1,2,3 at 5/1 never got actioned, so I will now have to sit and suffer if Saammidd wins and just hope its a decemnt race anyway. With so few runners though, it could be a bit of an anticlimax after all, witha confusuing sort of pace. If Frankel wins all the knockers will be going on about him winning another race with very few runners and that he still has much to prove. In any event the 8/11 available when the book on the Dewhurst opened does not look so silly now I would say! |
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A lot of people who took the 8/11 about Frankel did so in the expectation that the horse would go off a much shorter price on the day and that they would therefore be able to lay off at much shorter prices. A perfectly respectable betting strategy, in my opinion, if one fraught with danger. I pass on one bit of information, to be taken with a pinch of salt: friends of mine were at Cecil's yard the other day and it sounds as though the entire stable staff have put their mortgage on Frankel in the Dewhurst. He worked very impressively once again. They are very very sweet on his chance and will not hear of defeat. That's enough to put me off backing anything else in the race.
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Does anyone know can you do a tricast in saturdays race because there are now only 6 runners and how many combinations or what kind of a bet do you ask for the top three to place in any order and is there any likehood of it being a profitable bet should the three place? thanks.
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jamesp Joined: 05 Jan 02
Replies: 652 14 Oct 10 18:43 A lot of people who took the 8/11 about Frankel did so in the expectation that the horse would go off a much shorter price on the day and that they would therefore be able to lay off at much shorter prices. A perfectly respectable betting strategy, in my opinion, if one fraught with danger. I pass on one bit of information, to be taken with a pinch of salt: friends of mine were at Cecil's yard the other day and it sounds as though the entire stable staff have put their mortgage on Frankel in the Dewhurst. He worked very impressively once again. They are very very sweet on his chance and will not hear of defeat. That's enough to put me off backing anything else in the race. aye, reminds me of when a friend of mine who's cousin work's in bolgers yard said they couldn't contemplate defeat for teofilo before he won his dewhurst. |
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Frankie D thinks that Dream Ahead is the horse to beat. I can understand this but with regards to Frankel the age old question coheres in my head when people point out that he hasn't beat as strong field as his rival, and that is 'how do i become a regular if you don't let me in in the first place' ?...in other words i will take the leap of faith and say he can beat his rivals because i see past what he has beat and transform it in to what i think he can beat, and that would be everyone in the field. I fancy Frankel to win but i won't have a bet.
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that's frankie purely playing the pyschology card. it's a bit like when david cameron and co were supposed to have really wanted ed milliband to be the next labour leader but in fact the opposite is true.
it's sending out a message to connections of frankel that they're not afraid of that horse, but I rather feel it may be a different story after saturday. |
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Maybe FD also thinks his boss would appreciate someone winding up Henry Cecil.
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RACINGPOST1 Joined: 07 Mar 08
Does anyone know can you do a tricast in saturdays race because there are now only 6 runners and how many combinations or what kind of a bet do you ask for the top three to place in any order and is there any likehood of it being a profitable bet should the three place? thanks. been a long time since i went into a bookies' RP, but presume tricast races still have to be at least 8 runners in a h'cap. whether they would price up that race as a special tricast I doubt. |
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3 horses in any order is a combination of 6 bets btw. so a comb tricast to £1 = £6 stakes
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I don't think its psychology on Frankies part. He is impartial now and again to saying who he thinks will win, whether it be his own horse or otherwise. That's just my take on his comments anyhow, i could be major wrong. Dream Ahead does have a long, powerful stride accompanied by a lightning burst that leaves his rivals behind in an instant. I really like Frankels temperament which will be tested obviously, but i just think that he has that extra something in the locker.
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6 runner group 1 tricast. just write that on a slip, bound to be paid.
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a lot of people saying Frankel hasn't beaten much. They are not wrong.
But they are ignoring the fact that Frankel can run from A to B much faster than anything else in this field. Dream Ahead was grossly flattered by the result of the Middle Park - the remainder of the field failed to clock figures good enough to win a cl4 nursery, and his own final time was nothing special A bubble will indeed be burst on Sat - but it won't be Frankel's. |
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I've backed Roderic O'Connor at 30s for small money. I see in his last race 7f "Led and soon clear, in command from 2f out, stayed on well" so I expect him to set a pace. He is by Galileo out of a Danehill dam, same as Frankel.
I think Frankel and Dream Ahead would like a steady pace as they can kick. Saamidd was held in rear in his two races. These three will probably motor by Roderic O'Connor, but I'd like to see them asked to race at pace. |
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Cheers Brodie.
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kincsem, cannot agree at all that Frankel and dream ahead "would like a steady pace". In an ideal world both want a scorching gallop surely
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Pedrobob, you're ignoring that the ground was deteriorating during the Middle Park card.
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pedrobob - The 1st few furlongs of the Royal Lodge were pretty sedate allowing Frankel to easily go on before the turn in. DA's races have been quicker affairs albeit over 6.
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Figgis, think we discussed this previously. Agree with your principle that ground can deteroriate, especially when on a filthy day like that, but was the next race 1/2 hour after Hooray, and Dream Ahead explored virgin ground in going left (admittedly that might have been a slower part of the track anyway?). So happy to take the view that not one of Dream Ahead's rivals handled the ground... and as I think you and a couple of others have suggested, how did Foghorn Leghorm get into the equation against Group horses?
mginvest - I have one decent speed fig for Frankel - at Doncaster, not at Ascot, where the final time was slow for a race of that type. But I suspect that those who do sectionals will probably have a good idea of Frankel's ability from his Ascot run and know he is something else. I also suspect that those who do sectionals will know that Dream Ahead probably did not accelerate much at Newmarket, but that the others were stopping to a walk and he was flattered by 9 length winning margin in a Group 1 - I stand to be corrected though, was just my impression. |
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Pedrobob, for those sectionals to have any worth the problem of the going still has to be accurately accounted for.
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Pedrobob, also from a time point of view, Foghorn Leghorn was thrashed almost 11 lengths by Dream Ahead, he wouldn't have needed to run any quicker than he did when winning the Chester nursery for it still to be a good time by Dream Ahead.
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I was interested to learn Saamidd was supplemented for this at £20k. Pocket money for his connections, I know, but why risk it for the drubbing forecast by many? He seems the value to me.
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I thought Dreams time was well up to standard in the middle park. I dont think he'll stay the 7f though.
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some split times from Ascot 29th Sept.
Poets Voice won QEII in 2 secs quicker than Frankel, who in turn was 1 sec quicker than White Moonstone Poets Voice carried 8-13, other pair 8-12 QEII very evenly run race, last 3 furlongs in 11.9 - 12.0 - 12.7 Royal Lodge and Meon Valley were slowly run early, both winners arrived at the 5f marker in same time 65.9 secs Frankel clocked 11.6 - 11.1 - 12.6 White Moonstone clocked 12.0 - 12.0 - 12.3 Poets Voice arrived at the 5f marker in 3 secs quicker time than Frankel. Frankel finished the final 3f 1.2 secs (or 6 lengths) quicker than Poets Voice, even though Queally shade eased off final 100 yards. Think the most interesting comparison is that White Moonstone and Frankel arrived at the 5f marker in identical times. But by the time Frankel got to the 1f marker, he quickened so much that would have left White Moonstone (1.3 secs) 6 1/2 lengths) behind. |
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split times from Newmarket 1st Oct
Hooray and Dream Ahead both carried 8-12 Hooray first 2f 25.7, then 11.7 - 11.9 - 11.3 - 12.7 Dream Ahead remarkably similar in 0.3 secs slower. First 2f 26.2, then 11.6 - 12.0 - 11.7 - 12.3 Figgis, guess you would make allowance for Dream Ahead running on slower ground. Besides that, Hooray and Dream Ahead very similar horses. Hooray ran straight along the far side rail, whereas Dream Ahead ran 5-6 horse widths off the rail first 4-5 furlongs before hanging another 5-6 horse widths final 1-2 furlongs. Both races were evenly run so were not conducive to a lightning single furlong. There was no burst of acceleration by either Hooray or Dream Ahead other than where they quickened slightly going into the Dip. Dream Ahead was decelerating in the final furlong (slowest of the final 4 furlongs, albeit uphill), whilst the rest of the Middle Park field stopped to a walk, exaggerating his winning margin. |
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Pedrobob, without going into specific calculations, I make that the ground for Hooray's race was roughly .10 sec per fur slower than the first 2 races, the following races slowed by as much again.
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Figgis, so would allow Dream Ahead 0.6 secs allowance against Hooray?
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Roughly, yes.
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Well lets hope Frankel is the real deal and can show it on the day. Would love HRAC to be remembered for an all-time great racehorse who can be mentioned in the same breath as the likes of Mill Reef and Balding, Sea The Stars and Oxx, Nijinsky and O'Brien. Maybe this is it lets hope so he couldnt have a tougher test today and the jockey has to be up to it as well.
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Dancing Brave and Harwood... HRAC has never quite had an all-time great Classic colt imo though Reference Point was v good.
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great race
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On reflection Dream Ahead is a horse i like because of the way it travels,but i've not actually backed the thing before and i'm not gonna start today in the best race it's run in. He's a remarkable horse really costing just $11,000 at Keenland last year and only sold on for £35k. Compared to Frankel and Sammidd though his action and stride doesn't look as impressive to me. Frankel really got his head down and strode clear at Ascot and that's what i also liked about Sammidd. He looks totally focused on the job too. I agree with Pedro that the others in the Middle Park were simply stopping and perhaps DA should be bettered judged on the previous run.
I'm tempted to back Sammidd today and have a saver on Frankel in case he is the real deal. Whoever wins we'd have seen a real top class 2yo. Who'll go on next year though? |