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Frankel 8-11 fav For Dewhurst.
Frankel 8-11 fav For Dewhurst.
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Replies: 220
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Had to take Dream Again for Guineas book with Frankel and Strong Suit as he has tremendous scope. He has a soft ground action for me and it was only the final furlong he pulled well clear so Newmarket in May over a mile will be a big question mark for Dream Again whereas I have no such worries for Frankel. Hoping Queally goes for home pretty early as Dream Again will probably equal him for turn of pace and Queally needs to get him racing as early as possible imo, wasnt that impressed with Saamidd's gallop his fellow gallop companion was held onto he didnt exactly trounce them however it was just a gallop and we all know how misleading they can be.
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Dream Again's connections striking while the ground is right and the horse is in form. Even if he didnt stay the mile on fast ground in a Guineas and was pulled out before the race then his value would be enhanced with a victory over the eventual Guineas winner, if it turns out to be Frankel, as a 2yo.
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Not going to be soft next weekend is it?
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Don't think he needs it soft to show very good form but he is obviously very serious on slower ground ... He is very unlikely to get that in May and connections know he will never have a better chance of beating Frankel than now. Think Frankel will win with the right ride and even if he was nudged out by DA you would still have to fancy Frankel over an extra furlong on faster Guineas ground all training on.
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weather forecast suggests be good possibly faster come saturday
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As fast as Guineas ground?
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The question after the race if Frankel was well beaten by Saamidd is whether Frankel would be given an unrushed Derby prep by HRAC instead of a Guineas one. Don't see Saamidd beating him mind only Dream Ahead will be there with Frankel near the close.
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If Frankel is well beaten by Saamidd you can forget any talk of classics.
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Why? Should they have given up on Workforce even after the Dante?
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Timeform believe that Dream Ahead, a 7-2 chance on Betfair, goes into Saturday's mouthwatering Dewhurst having shown slightly better form than 8-13 favourite Frankel.
The Halifax-based firm describe any horse running to a mark of 130 or better as "top class" - and Dream Ahead ran to 130 when winning the Middle Park. Frankel's win at Ascot was rated 129. Timeform spokesman Kieran Packman explained: "Clearly, should all the principals stand their ground, then this year's Dewhurst has the potential to prove a vintage renewal. "Dream Ahead became the first juvenile since Xaar, in the 1997 renewal of this race, to put up a performance that Timeform define as 'top class' when hugely impressive in the Middle Park, backed up by an excellent time figure, whilst Frankel's effort at Ascot was one we described as 'very special'. Interesting to see TF have rated the form of the Middle Park presumably through the second and third (Strong Suit and Approve both rated 113) and chose to ignore the proximity of the exposed 90 rated Foghorn Leghorn who was 1 and a half lengths behind Strong Suit back in 5th. Foghorn Leghorn came into the Middle Park less than a week after being gubbed over 8 lengths in a nursery handicap so interpreting that run literally, he improved more than a stone on a line through the 2nd and 3rd. The BHA handicapper seems to have taken the same view of the race as he has upped Foghorn Leghorn to a new mark of 105 after the race. He also has Dream Ahead officially rated 128 and Frankel at 123. Makes you wonder why Frankel is odds on for the Dewhurst doesn't it. Or could it simply be the form of the Middle Park has been overrated by the above groups. I plump for the latter... |
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middle park looked better than it was imo. run it on good ground and strong suit would have been right there with dream ahead.
DH looks a soft ground sprinter imo. will run well over 7 but i think saamidd will beat him, i think saamidd will win. |
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Anybody who doesn't think that Dream Ahead's Middle Park performance wasn't out of the very top drawer is deluded. It was the best display by a two-year-old I can remember, up there with Arazi and other good'uns like Celtic Swing, Zafonic, New Approach and Shamardal etc etc..
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no it was a brilliant performance, and hes a dual grp1 winner already, amazing. but the ground was soft and strong suit clearly isnt as good on the ground and i would expect him to be alot closer if it had been good and im sure he wouldve been. he still may have lost anyway but i dont believe dream ahead is 7 or 8L whatever it was better than strong suit therefore its exaggerated because of the ground!imo.
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Always amazes me how people talk with absolute certainty about horses that have only run 2 or 3 times wanting this or that ground to show their best.
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Tobermory the action of Dream Ahead, in my eyes at least, suggests it wants cut. Not saying it wont go on faster ground, just wont be seen at his best - again imo.
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im thesame win only, im not saying he wont win on sat just feel he wants cut, i actually feel the same about frankel but there u have it. they'll prob burst 10L away from the chasing pack on good, i dunno, just going on what ive seen so far. imo
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The Dewhurst is a mouth-watering prospect. I don't expect to have a bet, but if there is a torrent of money for Frankel and Dream Ahead drifts out to 9/2, I will be backing the latter (on the basis that a dual Group 1 winner, even with doubts about the ground and trip, has to be massive value at that price).
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i'm as excited as i can be about this dewhurst. not because i believe it to be a competitive contest but because i believe that after the race we'll be hailing a true superstar in the shape of FRANKEL
in fact i fully expect to be running up the rowley mile naked if he doesn't oblige  |
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Led on bit Joined: 14 May 02
Replies: 26 12 Oct 10 16:42 Anybody who doesn't think that Dream Ahead's Middle Park performance wasn't out of the very top drawer is deluded. It was the best display by a two-year-old I can remember, up there with Arazi and other good'uns like Celtic Swing, Zafonic, New Approach and Shamardal etc etc.. I shall keep an eye out for the men in white coats coming around... I shall try and give some further justification for my post above and you can judge whether I should be certified. It appears to me that both the handicapper and Timeform have rated the Middle Park based on where Strong Suit and Approve both finished behind Dream Ahead. They were rated 113 going into that race and remain rated 113 after finishing within a short head of one another, so they were considered to have run to their rating. But did they ? Both started their seasons in May and neither had proven form on soft ground going into the Middle Park. They closest they came before the Middle Park was one run apiece on yielding and good to soft. Neither strike me as having soft ground pedigrees, being by Rahy and Oasis Dream with neither dam having form on soft ground. Could either have ran below form on the ground in miserable conditions at the tail end of a long season ? I believe that is possible. I have watched the race a few times and in my eyes, Strong Suit and the others are treading water in that final furlong...they were simply not finishing their race. Timeform mentioned that the performance of Dream Ahead was "backed up by an excellent time figure". In fact he ran half an hour after Hooray in the Cheveley Park when both carried 8st 12lb and his time was 0.20 secs slower than the filly. Hooray must be pretty good eh ? But wait she was "only" rated 116 post-race having gone into the race on 110. But then again she only won by 4 and a half lengths. I mentioned the conditions earlier. Soft ground but in addition a really miserable day, wind and rain. Conditions which are condusive to strange results and wide margin wins in my experience. Other races that day were won by 5 lengths, 6 lengths, 7 lengths and even 19 lengths. So either some very good performances or some poor ones perhaps, or a mixture of both ? Take the race involving Cityscape, a 113 rated horse going into only his 9th ever race and running over 1 mile an hour before Dream Ahead. He thrashed the 114 rated Penitent by 7 lengths and yet was only deemed to have improved his performance by 6lbs as his revised mark is 119. So the official handicapper judged that he did indeed improve but just not by as much as the winning distance suggested or otherwise he would have went up to a mark of 125 or so. And despite horses rated 112 and 119 finishing even further back. Double standards in the Middle Park perhaps ? I mentioned Foghorn Leghorn earlier and this, for me, is the inexplicable form line in the race. To assume Strong Suit and Approve ran to their rating, this horse had to have improved his performance by 15lbs from his previous rating of 90 based on revised figures, the handicapper had no choice but to elevate the horse to this new mark. So rather than consider that perhaps only Dream Ahead and Foghorn Leghorn ran anywhere near to their ratings he had to rate Foghorn Leghorn as having run the race of his life by some margin. Foghorn Leghorn came into the Middle Park 6 days after finishing 8 lengths 5th of 6 in a nursery at Chester and yet the official handicapper would have us believe he ran over a stone better in the Middle Park. No seriously he does... I mean come one, it is not as if he is trained in South Wales is it ? Is Dream Ahead a very good horse ? Yes he clearly is. But did he really run to a mark of 130 or even 128 that day ? I don't think he did but it is only my opinion. Thankfully we don't have long to wait to see if the horse can indeed run to that figure or even improve upon it, soft ground or not. |
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Superb post PFtrader. Spot on.
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Agreed, very good. Comparisons to Arazi ffs
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The official handicapper and Simon Turner at the Racing Post (and presumably also the ratings experts at Timeform) certainly don't believe that the placed horses ran anywhere near their best in the Middle Park. They may have left the horses' ratings unchanged, but that's simply because you don't suddenly drop a horse's rating after one poor performance. It all depends on the formula you use (pounds per length) to rate the race. The Racing Post, for example, allowed three pounds per length for the Middle Park, despite the soft ground, so on their ratings Strong Suit ran 17lbs below his Coventry form, Approve ran 14lbs below his Gimcrack form, and Irish Field ran 18lbs below his Prix Robert Papin form. Foghorn Leghorn is judged to have run 3lbs better than his Chester nursery winning form. Dream Ahead has been rated RPR 125. A more conservative formula of two and a half pounds per length would give Dream Ahead a rating of 120-121. Whichever way you look at it, Dream Ahead put up a superb performance at Newmarket.
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He is obviously top class as is Frankel. The ground and trip for a Guineas are far more likely to affect Dream Again adversely than Frankel. I saw Frankel as an excellent middle distance prospect originally and still do see him as a strong Derby horse the way he travelled and settled off a slow Royal Lodge pace before skating clear. He may be unlucky over a mile in that there is another top notcher in Dream Again around at the same time as him excusing the trip/ground concerns for a Guineas with him. Hope Frankel wins on Saturday however if Dream Again is ever to beat him it will be Saturday. As exciting as a Classic in itself, a more anticipated Dewhurst I can't remember.
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FRANKEL-STEIN
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NO CHANCE pauloon[;)]I'm sure eric morris would agree
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The comparison with Celtic Swing strikes me as a good one. He was a freak as a 2 year old, and not nearly so prepossessing the following season (despite his French win).
Dream Ahead looks like a 2yo freak to me, but his performance levels next season might not turn out to be anywhere near what he currently looks capable of. I think he'll win The Dewhurst. |
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PFtrader Joined: 19 Jun 08
Replies: 189 12 Oct 10 19:33 Led on bit Joined: 14 May 02 Replies: 26 12 Oct 10 16:42 Timeform mentioned that the performance of Dream Ahead was "backed up by an excellent time figure". In fact he ran half an hour after Hooray in the Cheveley Park when both carried 8st 12lb and his time was 0.20 secs slower than the filly. Hooray must be pretty good eh ? But wait she was "only" rated 116 post-race having gone into the race on 110. But then again she only won by 4 and a half lengths. Plenty enough time for the ground to slow significantly. |
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jamesp Joined: 05 Jan 02
The official handicapper and Simon Turner at the Racing Post (and presumably also the ratings experts at Timeform) certainly don't believe that the placed horses ran anywhere near their best in the Middle Park. They may have left the horses' ratings unchanged, but that's simply because you don't suddenly drop a horse's rating after one poor performance. It all depends on the formula you use (pounds per length) to rate the race. The Racing Post, for example, allowed three pounds per length for the Middle Park, despite the soft ground, so on their ratings Strong Suit ran 17lbs below his Coventry form, Approve ran 14lbs below his Gimcrack form, and Irish Field ran 18lbs below his Prix Robert Papin form. Foghorn Leghorn is judged to have run 3lbs better than his Chester nursery winning form. Dream Ahead has been rated RPR 125. A more conservative formula of two and a half pounds per length would give Dream Ahead a rating of 120-121. Whichever way you look at it, Dream Ahead put up a superb performance at Newmarket. jamesp There is a fly in the ointment here, isn't there ? If the official handicapper didn't believe that the placed horses ran anywhere near to their form why did he see fit to raise Foghorn Leghorn to a mark of 105 from 90 following his performance in the Middle Park ? I am just a simple punter but the maths simply doesn't add up here. I don't have acccess to RP ratings so forgive me if I concentrate solely on the official BHA ratings. If Foghorn Leghorn was raised 15lbs to 105 then based on the 3lbs a length allowance you mention (I was assuming 2lbs per length but that is just a rule of thumb for me, I am no expert) it follows that Strong Suit and Approve ran to a figure around 110 as they finished a length and a half in front of Foghorn Leghorn. As Dream Ahead finished 10 and a half lengths in front of Foghorn Leghorn then he deserved a higher official rating than 128 surely based on this logic ? 3lbs a length suggests a rating of 136..... 2.5lbs per length suggests a rating of 131... I don't see how the official handicapper can have it both ways here, if Strong Suit or Approve didn't run anywhere near their form (and I don't believe they did) he cannot sensibly raise Foghorn Leghorn to a mark of 105. Simple as. |
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Hooray bagged the rail though from start to finish .. it seemed to be favoured that meeting with several winners up there. Fury in the sales race was another one.
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.. I do share your scepticism though about Dream Ahead .. not his ability .. but just the margin of the victory .. given there were many wide margins winners that meeting, as you've said already ..
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Sin
As I mentioned previously I think Dream Ahead is a very good horse, I am not crabbing him in any way. All I have suggested is that the Middle Park form didn't merit an official rating of 128 (or the Timeform mark of 130). I have not backed anything in either the Dewhurst or the 2000 Guineas at this stage, and will not be having a bet on Saturday's race. I am looking forward to the contest and think it could be one of the flat races of the year. I do expect Frankel to win but he is no value at the prices so I won't be playing. |
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If I were Peter Chapple-Hyam (the trainer of Foghorn Leghorn), I would be quite aggrieved that the handicapper has given the horse a rating of 105. It's hard to justify such a big hike. Unlike the Racing Post handicapper Simon Turner, who uses a formula of 3lbs per length over 6f, the official handicapper has assessed the Middle Park using 2lbs per length and appears to believe that Strong Suit and Approve both ran to a mark of 108 (just 5lbs below their official rating). Personally, I would use 2.5lbs per length on soft ground and would rate the race as follows: Dream Ahead 125, Strong Suit 101, Approve 101, Irish Field 99, Foghorn Leghorn 97.
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Foghorn wouldn't win a hcap of 90 or more imho
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I'm not sure whether Foghorn Leghorn would be able to win a handicap off a mark of 90+, but the handicapper has no choice but to raise his mark after that Middle Park performance. In fairness, he had looked quite progressive in the second half of the season, winning his maiden easily at Lingfield, then getting knocked sideways when staying on in a Listed race at York, then winning a nursery quite easily on soft ground at Chester. (I think his penultimate start at Chester has to be ignored: he had to be switched wide and never got into contention.)
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Having read the RP Weekender today it seems the Dewhurst has polarised opinion amongst their hacks too.
Some believe the wrong horse is favourite Some believe Frankel is over-hyped Some believe Frankel's rivals all have more to prove than him Some believe Saamid is the forgotten horse (I personally thought SBS was getting his excuses in early the other day) And then there is Nick Mordin... |
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I have been thinking about the Dewhurst for a while.
There are 3 major players. frankel has beaten trees pretty much, but they were rated trees and he smashed them by wide margins and in brilliant style, appearing to improve, & appearing to settle better. His going requirements appear to be good or good to soft but he may act on slower or faster. His visually taking performances have been backed up by the clock, and he is said to have improved since the Royal Lodge. he is no longer 8/11 and the trend looks like he'll be 1/2. He stays a mile very well and is bred to stay further - most breeding experts in the Racing Post agree he may well get 12 furlongs at 3 so the drop to 7 furlongs on ground that may be just on the fast side of good may not be absolutely ideal, as it will negate any emphasis in stamina. His two main opponents are Dream Ahead and Saamidd. Dream Ahead was won two group 1's in a row, a strong looking 11 runner Prix Morny on good ground was won comfortable enough. This was followed by a brilliant looking win in the Middle Park. Generally I take the view that "flukes" are quite rare, however I am of the view that the merit of the Middle Park is suspect. This was a top class effort imo, but the others in the middle Park were already stopping and struggling badly on the ground on that day at the furlong pole and I am sure the winner's superiority is much less than it looked. However he is already a top class performer from the Prix Morny and is not the "tree" that Frankel has been killing so far, not by any means. He is bred to get a mile at 3 so its likely he will be better at 7 furlongs than 6. However the going will be very different from the Middle Park and probably the quickest he has raced on. he will need to be at least as good as he was in the middle park to win the Dewhurst. Saamid, otherwise known as Pagasus in his stable has had 2 runs on good and ggod to firm, winning a maiden by miles and then the group 2 Champagne Stakes from proven group performing 2 yo's Approve and Waiters Dream in brilliant fashion and easing down at the end. he could, like Frankel, be anything. Also, like Frankel, Saamidd has a ton of stamina on one side of his pedigree and may well stay 12 furlongs at 3 (the sire, Street cry has the sire stamina of a mile, but the dam is by Galileo and her dam by Rainbow Quest so it would be quite a shock if Saamid did not get 10 furlongs next year at least. Obviously any of the three main contenders can win, but at the moment, I see Saamid as being the horse that the prevailing conditions and the trip are likely to be most suited to. If I was to make a selection I hope and believe that Frankel may prove too strong, as he has done a fair impression of being the next coming. However at the prices available now, Saamidd makes a lot of sense, and actually makes some appeal at an each way price. |
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Agree with pretty much all of that COT.
My only real worry with Frankel is the track - I know he won on the July course but being a big heavy topped horse I would have some concerns about him coming down and out of the the dip. Probably won't matter and I expect him to win, but at the price I'm happy just to watch. I might place lay Dream Ahead instead. |
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If Frankel doesn't win this comfortably he'll never amount to anything. Due to his physical maturity he'll never have as great an advantage over his peers as he has now.
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Compelling analysis from cryoftruth. Wonder if he is any relation to the great cryofturn?
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unclepuncle Joined: 16 Feb 03
Replies: 469 13 Oct 10 19:36 Agree with pretty much all of that COT. My only real worry with Frankel is the track - I know he won on the July course but being a big heavy topped horse I would have some concerns about him coming down and out of the the dip. Probably won't matter and I expect him to win, but at the price I'm happy just to watch. I might place lay Dream Ahead instead.  |