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TTF! RACING POST GUIDE TO THE JUMPS inc TEN TO FOLLOW JUMPS 2010/11 books
TTF! RACING POST GUIDE TO THE JUMPS inc TEN TO FOLLOW JUMPS 2010/11 books
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Scores up now.
Two lists on 181 and breaking into the top 500. Best score for a few years.  |
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My top list has 172.
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I can only muster 125 pts my worst start in years!
Don't have Menorah, don't have Diamond Harry; Do have a cracking bunch of potential points scorers yet to find form! |
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This year's TTF is wide open,in previous years you would have needed 650 to 800 points to win,which averages out at about 70 odd points per selection. How many horses are going to get 70 odd points? The horses that have accumulated points so far - Menorah,,Imp Comm,D Harry, Cue Card,Midnight Chase, Poquelin are all pretty much only going to have one more run in the comp,which means that if you haven't included them (with the subs rule) you haven't lost much ground. Which horses are most likely to score well? At the moment you would like Big Bucks, Master Minded possibly Time For Rupert and Hurricane Fly as potential big scorers, but even then only 75 to 100 max which means you still need another 5,6 or 7 horses to get 50 or 60 points, can't see that any list can do that so perhaps 625ish can win this year. I Think what I'm trying to say is that there won't be the usual 3 or 4 horses getting 100 or so points and 6 or 7 picking up 40 odd as there are so few horses capable of achieving this with current training plans. If you could change your selections now which horses would you say were 'must have' or which do you think you are handicapped by not having?
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205 is our best so far. Our non scoring horses are Joncol and Kauto Star.
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Nice one JOCI.
Rob - knowing how horses will be campaigned is vital, esp as there is more of a tendency to look after horses and prepare for the festival (where most of the points are). Of the pre festival bonus races that aren't hcaps, two are in Ireland and the other is the KG. That's partly why Ire hurdlers usually outperform GB runners and HF could load up if he stays well. A top Ire 3m chaser does have points available, but talent is thin on the ground and GB trainers tend to go across for a raid more often. The KG has always been at the mercy of a classy animal and the ageing KStar looks to have the best chance in this race, but doubling up with the GC is less likely. In past comps the PP or Hen GC winners can bag up, but I doubt if that will happen unless DH fancies taking on the RP field. So you may be right about the points total, in which case subs could win it. |
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Still quite early days. I try and avoid getting excited about it until we're well into the New Year. If we're still in with a realistic shout going into Cheltenham, e.g. on the leaderboard and within about 50 points of the top 10, then it's time to start getting excited, especially as you have the impact of your bonus horses to come too.
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Lost the Long Walk tomorrow. Hope the freeze doesn't spoil the Christmas meetings as there are some top races on offer.
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At least a dozen horses will have scored over 70 points by the end of the competition..
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In 4th place for December monthly prize. 116 points. Am hoping Kauto for King George
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Newbury racecourse will stage the rearranged Long Walk Hurdle at their meeting on December 29.
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Have a good bunch of horses running next week, nearly all favourites! Still need em to win tho!
My list is kilimanjaro africa |
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Sounds good tony - need things to fall your way though, as you say.
Our best December list which is on 91 points, has potential runners in: Kauto Star / Burton Port - King George Joncol - Lexus Big Buck's - Newbury Hurricane Fly Sadly, Peddlers Cross not in Christmas Hurdle. Have a few promising lists on or bubbling under the overall leaderboard.....so looking forward to more winners. |
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91 here too (my name in lights), but I can't beat you tony as we have similar horses, but I don't have Menorah. I think you've got a good chance of snatching the prize so long as the weather is kind and there are no upsets.
good luck |
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I would be leading the monthly competition if the beast didn't fall.
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Those in front now must be paying for an ice age.
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Am praying for a mass thaw, and Big zeb win. No other races to be contested and i win £20,000 :)
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Half your wish is not enough, you need to pray for the thaw in Ireland now. The leader is odds on as it stands.
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That's the way the cookie crumbles.
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Princequillo "The leader is odds on as it stands". Not sure about that! He aint got big bucks, must be very short to go in? I cannot win with just big bucks i know
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The weather will decide!
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Golden Silver and the heavy ground could have a say
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KG is a Jan race. Not sure about the Christmas hurdle.
Long Walk at NBY on Wed. Lexus, PP 2m Ch and 2m hdl seem set for Lepardstown. Solwhit, Big Bucks & Big zeb might get me into the frame. |
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Christmas hurdle Jan race.
Have binocular, big bucks and big zeb going for me. Nobody above me has big zeb or binocular so here's hoping |
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What a friend NR in Lexus
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Had what a friend in my best december list (Joint 4th, kilimanjaro 116points) but not an issue as so many above me also had it
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If the Irish racing goes ahead then massive scope for change at the top. I wont be up there but have lines with Oscar Dan Dan, Cooldine, Pandorama, Big Zeb, Big Bucks and Solwhit. (my november lines!)
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Hope to see Joncol winning the Lexus today, as he features in our leading overall list. He's one of two non scoring horses in that list (the other being Kauto Star). Hope he's back to his best and has ironed out his jumping problems.
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Pandorama not a good result. Annoyingly one that I wanted but couldn't find room for.
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On todays performance the Irish hennessy (50pt race) is his for the taking!
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All summer I thought he was the horse for Ire 3m chases, but when it came down to the crunch I considered him in the context of the Newbury race and thought P Nicholls was more likely to pick off the Ire race. 3m chasers a weak division in Ireland, so he could very well dominate.
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Isn't the Lexus a 50pt race ?
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no
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Best you can do now Tiger, is draw if Big Zeb wins
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Thats if Punchestown dont win tomorrow..
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Pandorama not bad result for us. Now two lists on 200+.
Got one on 100 in December month (assuming Pandorama got 25 points), which has Punchestowns, Big Buck's and Hurricane Fly in it (too little too late though probably). |
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Princequillo wrote "Best you can do now Tiger, is draw if Big Zeb wins"
Spot on. I backed Pandorama on betfair with £170 at about 7/1. Went in my local bookies just before the off to have a bit of cash on, thought worse case scenario Pandorama wins with bonus points and I cannot win, had £60 at 7/2. When it won resigned myself to defeat until I realised the tote return of £3.70!!!! :):):)(£4-£7 tote reurn = 4 bonus points) Hoping punchestowns loses and big zeb wins, at least i have a chance albeit small |
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don't be surprised if Joncol reverses form with Pandorama next time,
very big horse who is hard to get fit.Will still pick up points. |
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I had Pandorama in a couple of lists, but they were so far back as to make no difference, and they look such bad lists that even if he wins the Hennessey and Gold Cup then I can't see them getting close.
Really hacked off about missing Menorah. I was at cheltenham the day it won the supreme novices, and thought it was a must for the TTF...but when the competition came round I was really busy with work and rushed all my lines and missed it. It does seem very open this time, but can't see anyone winning it without Menorah. You simply can't win this if you miss out a popular high scoring horse. If this seems downbeat, I did get £40 on Pandorama yesterday at 13/2, as the opposition looked so weak. If I hadn't done some work on the TTF then I could easily have missed this one. |
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You can definitely win it without menorah, since he's going straight to the champion hurdle. Hurricane fly on the hand will surely be on a 100pts after the AIG, and will probably end up top scorer.
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