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Frankel
Frankel
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the french guineas is over 10 furlongs a bizarre suggestion
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it was nick mordin who wrote that piece not me marksman. his flawed but interesting articles can be read at www.nickmordin.com
he always puts up these silly targets for horses, thank heavens he isn't a horse race owner. can you imagine how infuriating it would be if you backed one of his horse's antepost, only to see it aimed at some obscure race in the czech republic  he also has a well-known fixation for zoffany, a horse that isn't even in the same parish as zoffany, so ignore anything he has to say about the dewhurst [;)] |
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^
should read "a horse that's not even in the same parish as frankel" |
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cryoftruth 27 Sep 10 21:35
"frankel will not win the Derby...." Well this is not exactly Mystic Meg stuff is it. He is available at 4/1 at least, which mean most bookies think he has only a 20% chance! Tipping losers at 4/1 means every mug would average 75% losing tips, even McCrirrick managed that at shorter odds too. anyway Frankel is brilliant (self evidently). Of course he hasn't beaten anything very good yet, but how good would he be to beat top class horses by a total of around 25 lenths in 2 runs. He has won by 20lbs (eased down last tine) and 28 lbs the race before. If they had been 120 horses he would be better than Sea Bird, Mill Reef and Shergar already! He is an excellent candidate for the Derby. His breeding was very well summarised by the Racing Post bloodstock expert in today's racing post; he observed quite rightly that his pedigree contains more than enough stamina to make his staying 12 furlongs at 3 a probability. The doubts are whether he progresses a bit, stays fit and turns up at Epsom. If he does those 3 things he will be a pretty easy Derby winner. ------------------------------------------------------------ The bloodstock bloke said Bullet Trains stays 1m4f. Firstly, he doesn't and b) The Lingfield Derby trial is not over 1m4f ffs. |
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Not often I agree with Nick Mordin but it will be interesting to see how Frankel fares in a true run race.
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ilikewavingatbuses Joined: 06 Jun 09
Replies: 4201 29 Sep 10 16:45 requestingflyby Joined: 06 Jun 06 Replies: 41 29 Sep 10 10:06 Of course pace means something. A horse that can run that quickly can't win the Derby. Eddery said straight away after winning hte Guineas Zafonic had too much speed to get the Derby trip(and he was right). If Frankel is as quick as what people are saying on here, he won't get the Derby trip. of course its important but the whole 4-6L faster in final 3f its a load of crap as yes this may be true but because the pace of the 2 aces wee different it has no baring on who the better horse is, it just shows he can quicken from a slow pace!!it would have been better for us if it was truly run so we could actually see how good he is!!strong pace on good over a mile against g1 horses, lookin forward to seeing it!! i agree to an extent with mordin, because basically we havent seen him run in a decent race against g1 horses at a fast pace, it may improve him (i personally doubt it)but im reserving judgement til i see it!! the way i see it is that he will not be near as impressive (again might be totally wrong), i mean how could he be? if he does go and win by 10L off a fast pace against saamidd for example then surely hes the highest rated horse of all time after that run? which imo simply isnt going to happen but we'll see!! it think (like mordin) he will run something like his maiden!!yes he won that cosily but not THAT impressively that we could foresee what he was about to do in his next 2 races!!he was pushed along , if it was only for a few strides and it is imo that horses simply dont improve THAT much from one run to the next as in, IMO if he was to produce the running of his 2nd race in his maiden against NATHANIEL he would not have beat that field by 13L on the bridle, he just wouldnt have!! im not saying hes not going to win the dewhurst but imo IF he does i feel it wont be in the impressive way everyone is expecting! i will probably LAY him in the dewhurst with a proviso that the ground is good and its a big field with guaranteed strong pace VS g1 animals! i would probably LAY(assuming he starts 4/7 or something like that) him and then back him i-r so that i wont lose money if he wins, hopefully make some!just feel hes likely to come under some sort of pressure and will trade bigger unlike his other races! thats my theory anyway, if he does win by 10 off a strong pace with the best horses around than ill be more than happy to see that and will cheer him home even but i dont think thats going to happen tbh!! be lucky  |
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The bloodstock expert in the Racing Post analysed Frankel's pedigree with some care. I assume he is the bloostock reporter for the Racing Post because he has a little understanding of his subject.
After weighing up the stamina on both sides of Frankel's pedigree, he concluded that the chances are that he will get 12 furlongs. The Lingfield Derby trial is run over 1 mile 3.5 furlongs - approximately 100 yards short of the Derby trip on a similar course and Bullet Train hacked up in it getting a post mark of 111, a figure he has only reached once since when over 10 furlongs he ran on very soft going that would have made the race a test of stamina. Its hard to argue with the fact; (if you want to be utterly pedantic) that he (Bullet Train) very clearly stays a hundred yards short of 12 furlongs. If the extra 100 yard is worth a "ffs" so be it, it sounds like splitting hairs to me. In any event as I stated before, Frankel is an entirely different horse from his half brother Bullet Train. His sire is a new sire imparting class and stamina, whilst Bullet Train's sire was pretty much at the end of his career, producing nothing of any note at all at the time Bullet Train appeared. Frankel is also now rated at least 10 lbs higher than Bullet Train has ever run, so he not not just very different but different class as well. He is also a really decent well built brute who appears to have tremendous scope to improve. The stuff about speed I have heard very well all before. All the desperate arguments on here after the 2000 Guineas that Sea the Stars won - all the people who argued very hard and honestly (but mistakenly) that Cape Cross as a miler with little stamina in his pedigree could not sire a Derby winner, and that in any event Sea The Stars showed so much speed at Newmarket over a mile it was impossible that with all that speed he couldn't stay at Epsom. Well Frankel has just as much stamina as Sea The Stars had, in terms of the make up of his pedigree. Sea The Stars sire had little stamina whilst his dam had tons. This time Frankel's sire has tons of stamina in his pedigree, whilst his dam has a very considerable amount in hers. She will pass on those genes well enough despite the somewhat unlikely fact that she seemed best over shorter distances. of course its not an exact science. We have all seen sprinters who were bred to stay miles and stayers by sprinters. It does happen. However as a general rule, horse bred to stay 12 furlongs usually do stay, and Frankel is certainly bred to stay. |
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Comparing Frankel to Zafonic is crazy on pedigrees. Zafonic was bred to be a miler, and was a miler.
Quite a few horses that showed a decent amount of speed have got 12 furlongs very well indeed. I recall without any thought: Sea The Stars Nashwan Mill Reef The Brigadier Generous (won the Dewhurst) Diminuendo (wona 6 furlong sprint first time out) Nijinsky Nobiliary Oh So Sharp with a time to research you could easily treble the examples drawn from my poor old memory! |
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im not saying he wont stay, im just doubting his ability and feel as impressive as he has been, i cant help feel hes been somewhat flattered bu the ground conditions, slowly run races and quailty!!
i also cant help notice the horses u mentioned above are amongst the greatest of all time therefore their exceptional ability alone played a large part in them both staying and being v fast! frankel doesnt come in to that category just yet, only won egg and spoon races so far albeit v impressively! |
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ilikewavingatbuses i'm not being funny but why do you add exclamation marks to the end of all your sentences, it makes you look about five!!!!
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cryoftruth
Joined: 22 Mar 04 Replies: 397 30 Sep 10 01:15 Comparing Frankel to Zafonic is crazy on pedigrees. Zafonic was bred to be a miler, and was a miler. Quite a few horses that showed a decent amount of speed have got 12 furlongs very well indeed. I recall without any thought: Sea The Stars Nashwan Mill Reef The Brigadier Generous (won the Dewhurst) Diminuendo (wona 6 furlong sprint first time out) Nijinsky Nobiliary Oh So Sharp with a time to research you could easily treble the examples drawn from my poor old memory! ==================================================================== Virtually every horse that shows ''speed'' has it's stamina questioned,whether bred for the job or not.... indeed the list goes on.... It happened with the great DANCING BRAVE,..the too much speed debate raged...and ended with poor grev making his infamous/famous? ''bombproof'' quote. New approach wouldn't stay,workforce wouldn't stay,J dunlop said SAKHEE didn't stay...finished second in the derby....so back to 10f for him,..godolphin get him and his next try at 12f?....wins the 'arc' by 6 lengths. Those are just a few from memory. ALSO.. SECRETARIAT possibly the greatest of them all had the same 'debate'...he was beaten over 9f in his prep for the K.D. the rest as they say.... Truth is until frankel runs over a trip we simply don't know,thats why a book is made...you take a veiw,you take a price...or not. Of course Aidan O'brien disagrees....for him it works the other way...all his stoutly bred 'plodders'..... listen... Have enough 'natural' speed for the july cup If only it was so black and white. |
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I still love this he has stamina in his family balls. His dam was a SPRINTER !
You are still showing a complete lack of knowledge with regards to Bullet Train and Lingfield. They went no pace and sprinted up the home straight. That didn't test his stamina and it has been so proved twice since. If they run in the Derby next year it will be to due to public pressure, not because he is likely to stay. Even Henry Cecil has utterd from him mouth on live TV is he doesn't think he'll stay. But if you know better than him, crack on. |
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Bullet Train wasn't certain to win that race either .. O'briens runner, priced at 5/1 and 3rd favourite, broke down when entering the straight. He was going very well .. it gets overlooked.
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Celtic Son 30 Sep 10 08:25
I still love this he has stamina in his family balls. His dam was a SPRINTER ! That is a fact but look into her pedigree then you will see she has plenty of stamina in there and has produced stock that have run over further than herself!HRAC is imo playing him down not wanting to go down the SNA route over the winter,he is in no doubt at what potential this colt has shown.And don't forget his sire is a huge influence for stamina. |
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mythical prince Joined: 20 Sep 06
Replies: 1665 30 Sep 10 02:16 ilikewavingatbuses i'm not being funny but why do you add exclamation marks to the end of all your sentences, it makes you look about five!!!! sorry mythical, just bad habit really, i do same in texts. apologies.  |
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no probs, just that people might take your comments a bit more seriously if there wasn't an exclamation in EVERY sentence
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 Saamidd vs Frankel. I can't wait to see these two in a battle. Will be nice to see Frankel actually race against some decent horses as well. |
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i think saamidd will beat him off a strong pace on good ground!slow pace and soft and frankel will never be beat!
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The stamina in his pedigree being balls, is unfortunate seeing Frankel's sire passed on plenty of stamina from his balls.
Cetic Son may be right in the end, in that maybe Frankel will defy the pedigree and not get more than 10 furlongs. However his understanding of pedigrees appears to stretch to the first generation. Maybe he is young, he has a lot to learn and of he is backing his dogmatism with hard cash he will learn the expensive way. I see the Bullet Train argument has moved away from the lingfield Derby trial not being run over 12 furlongs, to the old "it wasn't much af a test because it was a slowly run race" argument. I seem to recall the same sort of cynical argument about Sea The Stars Derby win - the slow pace of the Derby meant those that knew he would stay had not proved their case. In the face of solid facts, its quite admirable how Celtic Son maintains his staunch position. It couldn't be the argument of a young man resentful that the Derby ante post favourite and clearly a horse bred for the job has shortened into single figures without any of his money on it could it? |
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ilikewavingatbuses Joined: 06 Jun 09
Replies: 4257 30 Sep 10 17:37 i think saamidd will beat him off a strong pace on good ground!slow pace and soft and frankel will never be beat! I don't think you could be more wrong here and hopefully the Dewhurst will prove it. Better ground and a faster pace will suit Frankel |
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Celtic Son
If the dams optimum distance is the be-all and end-all (as you appear to be claiming) could you please explain why Kind was a sprinter considering her dam won the Lancashire Oaks? Its not as black and white as you seem to think. |
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PFtrader Joined: 19 Jun 08
Replies: 171 30 Sep 10 20:27 ilikewavingatbuses Joined: 06 Jun 09 Replies: 4257 30 Sep 10 17:37 i think saamidd will beat him off a strong pace on good ground!slow pace and soft and frankel will never be beat! I don't think you could be more wrong here and hopefully the Dewhurst will prove it. Better ground and a faster pace will suit Frankel perhaps PF but i doubt it, i mean if he does win i dont think it'll be as impressive as he has been!if he beats saamidd by 10L without using the whip he'll be the highest rated off all time!! i think its far more likely it will look something like his maiden and he might win!he wasnt that green on his maiden!!of course improvement can be expected but by that much? hes a really good horse from what ive seen but again at prices like 1/3 in a matchbet against a horse that HAS the form in a strongly run race ill take my chances!if frankel wins, i wont lose that much and will be happy to see a brilliant performance!! |
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just back frankel then you'll win AND see a brilliant performance
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mythical if frankel was even money i would seriously consider backing him but im genuinely not convinced yet!!
hes the most exciting 2 yr old ive seen in years, winning races so easily but the conditions have been the same, small fields, one at ascot of all places which is renowned as a dodgy track!!hes clearly extremely talented but im not going to back him against a horse like saamidd who looks everybit as exceptional IMO AND has beat a gimcrack and a group winner EASED DOWN! in a truly run race!! cant do it!! |
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I don't think the Champagne Stakes could be described as strongly run, the time was pretty poor.
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well it was more strongly run than frankels last 2 races!
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Well if it was it doesn't say much for the winner, as Frankel's figures were better.
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the only time frankel was i anything that resembled anything like a real race with a big field and reasonable pace (dewhurst conditions)he won a cosy half length and he was asked in that race too!!
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That was only his debut.
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figures!on figures if every winner of the derby were to meet workforce would come out on top!!
frankel looks brilliant but ill take my chances that in a big field off a strong pace hes going to be scrubbed along and beaten in the final furlong by saamidd or someone else!!frankel has beat nothing so far under conditions that suited him!! |
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figures!on figures if every winner of the derby were to meet workforce would come out on top!!
Wouldn't even get a place on mine. |
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ILWAB
Do you really believe Saamidd is better ? Both of these horses ran at Doncaster on 10 and 11 September. Ground conditions were described as good on both days with similar going stick readings of 8.2 stands side and 8.5/8.6 centre. One of these horses ran the distance in 1m 26.32secs in a Group 2 carrying 8st 12lb The other ran it in 1m 24.83secs against 2 opponents carrying 9st 2lb and didn't come off the bridle You might not fancy the price but save your money, just watch and enjoy a very good horse |
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i know that was his debut but IF he possess such extraordinary ability winning by anything he likes, why didnt he power away from nathaniel? and why didnt the runner up win next time out? surely cecil doesnt have TWO frankels with picture editor too?
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Sea the Stars didn't even win on his debut.
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And fwiw, no I don't think Frankel will be another STS, my feeling is just that he's very precocious, but let's judge him on what he achieves now.
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well his legs moved faster than any other derby winner to clock the fastest time!!
PF- im not out to get frankel or say hes not the best 2 yr old but i still think when it comes to putting your money on any decision that when a horse is going to go off at very low prices that he has the nessessary tools for the conditions he is about to face and as good as frankel has won so far i still feel that theres a small doubt regarding him running in a race with a massive field and pace on good ground!! do u think its that obviously? i dont when there are horse like saamidd who have show equal if not more ability!!i mean on form saamidd should be fav!! |
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ILWAB
The Dewhurst will be a small field, Frankel and Saamidd will scare most of the others off so you are not going to get the conditions you mentioned here. Also as I mentioned above, Frankel is already proven on good ground.....perhaps you mean really fast ground....and I doubt he will be running on that anywhere this year. |
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I don't blame you for looking for reasons to oppose him, I won't be opposing him myself but I certainly wouldn't be backing him either at such a short price, I've seen speedy 2yos go off the boil before without warning.
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i agree it will prob be good or on the soft side of!!obviously if the field breaks up then i will reevaluate my position but i just see so
many superstars and i find often if it looks too good to be true it usually is!! i think frankel has been amazing as i said, ridiculous!! but im still going to reserve judgment until after the dewhurst!! i mean some on here are already saying hes the greatest horse of all time!!amazing!but i cant wait to see him again!!very exciting! |