ilikewavingatbuses m8 i'll be you an even grand that you can't write a whole paragraph without any exclamation marks in it

Wow, there are some strange people here -

cryoftruth     30 Sep 10 17:49

The stamina in his pedigree being balls, is unfortunate seeing Frankel's sire passed on plenty of stamina from his balls.

Cetic Son may be right in the end, in that maybe Frankel will defy the pedigree and not get more than 10 furlongs. However his understanding of pedigrees appears to stretch to the first generation. Maybe he is young, he has a lot to learn and of he is backing his dogmatism with hard cash he will learn the expensive way.

I see the Bullet Train argument has moved away from the lingfield Derby trial not being run over 12 furlongs, to the old "it wasn't much af a test because it was a slowly run race" argument. I seem to recall the same sort of cynical argument about Sea The Stars Derby win - the slow pace of the Derby meant those that knew he would stay had not proved their case.

In the face of solid facts, its quite admirable how Celtic Son maintains his staunch position. It couldn't be the argument of a young man resentful that the Derby ante post favourite and clearly a horse bred for the job has shortened into single figures without any of his money on it could it?

How weird, did you not see the Lingfield Derby trial, have you not seen Bullet Train twice not get home over a properly run 1m4f. I have 33s and 25s on Frankel to win the 2000 Guineas, and I'd be man enough to admit, if I had the same prices for the Derby, he's two hopes of staying, zero and none. I'm sorry, I can't take you seriously saying he's bred for the job, our disagreement is done. Saying he'd defy his pedigree by not getting further than 10f, wow, you've genuinely lost it and clearly have your brains on him to win the Derby. He wants 1m2f in the long term, as did Kind's half brother Powerscourt. The reason he is short for the Derby, but not a shorter price that the 2000 Guineas, is stark staringly obvious. If you can't see that, no one can help you. You say he wants 1m4f even though Cecil says he is unlikely to stay, so why is he not shorter in the Derby betting, you do the math.



 
john92     30 Sep 10 20:45

If the dams optimum distance is the be-all and end-all (as you appear to be claiming) could you please explain why Kind was a sprinter considering her dam won the Lancashire Oaks?

Its not as black and white as you seem to think.

Is this not what I'm saying? She was bred to stay apparently, even though she was by miler Danehill, so a mixed pedigree? Bullet Train should stay 1m4f standing on his head if that was the case, but he doesn't, this is not up for debate, he doesn't. Frankel is by a 1m4f winner out of a 5,6f performer, isn't it entirely possible that he takes more after his dam, thus everything is not black and white? My bloody nan could have been a champion sprinter for her county for all I know, doesn't  make Usain Bolt does it? If they foresaw him as a proper Derby horse, he'd be heading for the Racing Post Trophy not the Dewhurst. They know he has speed, and is why they are happy to drop in trip again.

You seemed to think it was pretty black and white when you typed SPRINTER in caps, putting far too much emphasis on what his dam did on the track.

You seem to be going back on that a bit with the mention of 10f and Powerscourt.

I was replying to the fact you said it was "balls" that he has stamina in his family,when he clearly has. Even Danehill sired top class middle distance and staying horses too.

I think theres more chance of 12f being Frankels optimum trip rather than a mile, although it will most likely be 10f. That we probably agree on and well done on the big priced vouchers for the 2000g.

Even the great get it wrong.

With Jacqueline Quest having been led in to the winner’s position, Cecil had said as he waited for the result of the stewards’ enquiry: “I didn’t think she’d get the trip and she’s only really just come to hand. It was Noel’s (Martin, owner) decision to run her and I just didn’t think she’d get the mile. 

“All credit to Noel. He was right and I was wrong. I’m always wrong. I didn’t think this would be her day.”

As long the 'boys in blue' don't buy him Dream Ahead looks a much more likely Guineas winner to me.

yes imo^

most middle park winners end up sprinters which would be a worry!

needs cut it would also seem!!not a wise guineas bet imo!!

very impressive there tho against really good horses(unlike frankels form). Frankel much better guineas prospect imo!

rainbow springs 13L behind frankel finishes 3rd in g1.

granted she wouldve improved considerably and that didnt look a great race today tbf but can only be a good thing for frankel

Why Johnny??, We all know from past experience that its very unlikely that all three will turn up at Newmarket next May, its odds on that one or more of the three will have a setback, Not be ready, etc etc

If they are all fit and well, let them race if the going is suitable. Its a long time since we had such exciting youngsters and racing needs all the excitement that this contest would generate

Why risk bottoming the horse in a potentially brutal last run of the season that would be a mini-Guineas? Very soft ground is not what Frankel wants. It's as simple as that.

but frankel has the worse form from the top 5 or 6 in the betting for the dewhurst. he has beat nothing so far in slowly run contests and small fields. both dream ahead and saamidd have far superior form going in to the race. even. pathfork, dunboyne express they too have shown better form than frankel.

frankel is priced on potential , hype and style of victory. the horses he has beat have achieved nothing of real merit and as already stated have been running in small fields off a slow pace obviously suiting a speed horse like frankel who also obviously possess an above average ability but as form goes his is not near the best in the race.

I agree with your general point ilikewavingatbuses, but he was far from all out to beat Nathaniel on debut, Queally only nudging Frankel along to keep him at bay close home (having coasted into the lead on the bridle), on ground that was probably far from ideal. He was value for a bit further in the end.

However, I do agree that he is starting to look poor value at his current prices for next year's Classics, especially when we've seen the likes of Wootton Bassett, Dream Ahead and Casamento all come out and win Group 1/2 races in fine style in recent weeks. Frankel has clearly yet to show the full range of his abilities, of course, and the times he has clocked the twice have been exceptional, but there is a degree of potential built into his profile so far as we don't actually know what he can do against the cream of the juvenile crop, whereas the aforementioned trio have.

Don't get me wrong, we could be dealing with an truly exceptional talent, and the times of both of his races and visual impression he has created to date have been striking, but the form book doesn't quite back it up yet. I truly hope that can change when he wins the Dewhurst later this month.

as for wooton basset, he has looked impressive but can anyone name a winner of that french race which went on to win the guineas? i can name several horses that looked impressive in that race which were well touted up for the 2000, but I can't think of any which actually went close to winning the race.

come to think of it, middle park and dewhurst winners don't have a great recent record in the race either. perhaps casamento, to go the sea the stars route?

rock of gibraltar,won french race and guineas at nkt.

mythical

I think you read Mordin a bit too much. It was the "2000 Guineas horses have a terrible record in the Derby" nonsense that lost people a lot of money when Sea The Stars trotted up. The trouble with trends is that they change, they don't always last. That's in the nature of statistics. You can get apparently major trends that appear very solid and then go back and look a few years later and find all has changed. Just because Wooten Bassett won the french race doesn't have any bearing on his chances in the Guineas. If you follow that sort of foolish trend you end up with the sort of logical nonsense involved in saying he would have a better chance in the guineas if he had been stuffed in France!
Trends are a cheap way of trying to find winners. There is no real substitute for an understanding of form. It is this lack of understanding of form that led to Bekhabad being made favourite for the Arc, when it was pretty obvious to anyone who had cared to look that Workforce's Derby form was easily the best on offer.

of course Workforce didn't beat much at Epsom. However a bit like frankel people forgot he beat his rivals by a very long way indeed.

cryoftruth, with all due respect i don't see what i just said has to do with nick mordin, i've already stated on here several times that I find him a flawed but interesting contributor. I certainly don't suck up to him like several on here do (kevbetting supermoron springs to mind.) I know you have crabbed him several times on here (certainly he overrelies on speed ratings and his suggestion that bekhabad and the other french three year olds were miles ahead of the other middle distance horses in europe seemed bizarre to say the least)

I was just making the rather sarcastic point that ilikewavingbuses seems to have jumped on the mordin bandwagon as concerns frankel. Mordin suggested that frankel may well be exposed in a stronger run contest. But as often with the guy, he backs up an already strongly held belief with poor evidence, in this case bringing up a south african horse from many years ago who he himself dismisses as a freak.

Anyway I find it hard to believe that any horse which travels as well as frankel does will be better suited by a slowly run race, thats a statement by someone who doesn't really understand racing.

personally I hope frankel wins the dewhurst and win's it impressively, we all need our stars. I'm pretty confident that he will do exactly that and will be backing him to do so. i'm sure if he doesn't, all the cynics amongst us will come on to gloat "i told you so"

it's interesting though, that frankel is already a shorter price antepost than zafonic was on the day, when he won his dewhurst... zafonic was the most impressive two year old I can remember. It suggests to me that in these betfair days all the value is slowly squeezed out of favourites as the "sheep" jump over each other in a rush to get on at the first prices possible.

as for ilikewaving's contention that he doesn't have the best form, is all the discussion about frankel really about form? do we really care that he's beaten horse's like klammer? it's the style in which he's done it that's impressed, not who he's beaten. When he won at doncaster he cruised up to the front runner off a very slow gallop. diamond geezah, a horse rated 90, was sprinting full pelt but queally hadn't even moved a muscle. Only the very best horse's can do that. They make the difficult look easy.

ditto at ascot, when he comes around them all like they are standing still. I really hope he does the same at newmarket, so we can have something to remember this otherwise fairly forgettable flat season by.

I just think that 2000 Guineas runners are overbet in the Derby. lets go back over the last 25 odd years from memory(cant guarantee all correct lol)
84 El Gran Senor 10-11
85 Shadeed 7/2-Runner up Bairn was a/p fav after the 2000
86 Dancing Brave 9/4
88 Doyoun 8-1 ??
89 Nashwan 5/4
91 Mystiko 9/2 Generous 8-1
92 Rodrigo De Triano 13-2
94 Mister Baileys -cant remember was abroad
95 Pennekamp 5-4
97 Entrepeneur 8-11
98 King Of Kings 11-2 Cape Verdi(from the 1000 11-4)
01 Golan 4-1
02 Hawk Wing 6-4
03 Refuse to Bend 10-3??
04 Snow ??(dettori) 5-1
06 Sir Percy 6-1??
08 New Approach 11-2
09 Sea The Stars 11-4

All fancied, and maybe the success of a few of them have been because we are in a astonishing run of fancied horses winning the Derby, off hand i think you have to go back to 98 to find a horse in double figure odds winning the race

mythical prince Joined: 20 Sep 06
Replies: 1701 05 Oct 10 19:38 
i like waving you seem to have jumped on the mordin bandwagon. Crazy however i like the fact you followed my advice about the exclamation marksDevil

and youre welcome

incidentally, cecil stated after the royal lodge that the horse improved hugely in the weeks leading up to that race, suggesting that he did indeed come on a lot for that debut.

Ilikewavingatbuses

you asked "did he REALLY MAKE THAT MUCH IMPROVEMENT FORM 1ST TO 2ND RUN?"

Well, lets assume that horses generally dont improve much from 1st to 2nd run.

In that case, Frankel would already be a superstar based on his demolition of Gosdens filly who had her debut at Doncaster, and that form would be the best of any 2yo this year.