Horse Antepost
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Frankel
Frankel
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Replies: 456
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Powerfully built mover who reminds me of Falbrav. All been said on this thread but obviously with normal improvement could be a monster. Really hope he isn't the finished article already and others catch him up in maturity.
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What's wrong with the French Derby? I think the owner will want him to run in the Arc.
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Where's Eric?
He oozes class and is an excellent Derby prospect. HRAC should go Racing Post Trophy now as the horse acts on the likely ground there and wont jar himself up. A gradual build up for the Derby now this could be the one to put HRAC back on the map with colts. On at 25s but may go in again at 20s. Or... his trainer thinks he won't stay. Lucky there's that 5k Guineas voucher... |
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I said around a week ago I went in Guineas also you thicko. Got great positions Guineas and Derby am pretty sure they will go Derby to join the all-time greats after the Guineas. This could easily be the owners best horse since Dancing Brave and he's had some gooduns.
He has to be pulled up after a mile on soft ground ffs and yet he prefers good ground which would see him get a lot further especially the way he cruises. He could have sat with that lot today going easy in behind as far as you like. |
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Soft ground form, in which he went off at 30/100 (not the strongest of races) to win and some people are remarking that this horse is better than Sea the Stars. In racing beware of the hype. In my opinion this horse is terrible value for a race, the 2000 giuneas, which is 8 months away.
I have seen it so many times, one horse in the race handles wet conditions and all the others don't, the horse is put up in the press as the new, Nijinsky or Sea Bird. Simply put the majority of horses don't handle wet conditions the few that do often look like beasts with supreme power when conditions are in their favour. In my opinion moderate opposition and dodgy going defines 2/1, Krankel as a poor betting opportunity. |
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Your beloved HRAC stated clearly today that he thinks he won't stay the Derby trip yet you've filled your boots for a race he won't run in and have proclaimed him Pegasus.
And i'm the thicko. Kirk, the forum wouldn't be the same without your hilarious escapades. |
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lol you are like a little child trying to annoy people on here. I just watched the race and interview and am confident he will be in the Derby after the Guineas, HRAC commented on both sides of his breeding adding that he is by Saddlers Wells at the end. I am really upset at having over 20 grand net brought into my Derby book today in addition to excellent Guineas positions, nearly in tears here.
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No moves, he looked even better on good ground last time, he is even versatile re ground and is really good on fast or slow.
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One thing i know from here and various other situations in flat racing, Henry cecil is not only an amazingly good trainer but absolutely the best judge of a horses optimum distance.
BEWARE  |
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and his owners take his word for it and they do the distance henry says.
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Henry's doubts about this horse staying seem based on half-brother Bullet Train but that horse has completely lost form since the Derby and can't threaten the judge at any distance right now. He appeared to get 11f well at Lingfield prior to this.
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over 20 grand net
Seems likely. he is even versatile re ground and is really good on fast or slow. Even though he's never fun on fast ground Cecil said he wants to finish his season early ie Dewhurst rather than RP, which suggests 2 things: 1. He fancies him at shorter distances 2. He wants to win a Group 1 now We've all been taken in by wonder horses at the back end of their 2yo season. It seems to me that HRAC is well aware that this horse is good but is tempering enthusiasm towards the future. He's clearly well built and forward and it's conceivable that he's ahead of his contempories now, something that may not be true in 8/9/10 months time. "I think he has a lot of talent and, given the way he works, I don't think I've had a better two-year-old since Wollow - and that's nearly 40 years ago." Implication? He's a top class 2yo. "I don't believe in ante-post - [i]a lot can happen between now and then[/i]," the trainer said when asked for his reaction to the bookmakers' short Classic quotes. "I'd question whether he'll get the Derby trip, I really would. Implication? He's ahead of the others now and I don't see him improving for a trip (or possibly with age) He's looked great twice aginst first moderate then slightly better opposition. Both races have been settled by a turn of foot after moderate early pace and both times he's been expected and a very short price. stamina has not taken a hand in either race. Topspeed has rated him as good but not exceptional for today. I'd say he needs to improve for a Guineas win and also that it is likely that he has less improvement in him than many would expect; he looks the finished article already. Prices now are beyond absurd. |
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looked an absolute monster, i have issues tho!!
1 hes a soft ground horse, pounds the ground with a huge action! 2 hes too fast, cant see him winning the derby, just on visual impression alone, also races VERY enthusiastically so wont help him stay imo ! i know by galli but i dont see him staying! 3 hes far more mature to his counterparts, certainly physically!! 4 i know his maiden was a big field but nathaniel did give him a slight run for his money, and i feel the small fields have made him look better than he is or at least give that impression! 5 what has he beat so far? well not a lot!!lest face it, he went off 30/100 today, yes won so easily but what have the horse behind actually achieved? NOTHIN!theyre listed class and will be v surprised if if any of them ever win a g2 let alone a g1!!that race was g2 only in name also, their combined form amounts to v little!have a look! 6 is he the most exciting 2 yr old for the last few years? ABSOLUTELY! his wins so far have been so impressive, amazing but hes beat trees, its that simple and i doubt he'll be half as impressive on good to firm against g1 horses but im happy to be proved wrong!!was great to see!!next years 3 yr olds are gonna be an outstanding bunch imo!! |
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it's funny how these sort of horse's inspire extreme reactions in people; there's no in between. One the one hand you have this one camp who say that he's just a two year old and won't achieve anything at three, or very little. Then you get people like dananders, who say that he's a machine who won't be beaten. (anyone who knows racing know's that is completely daft and not very relevant. even the best horses like sea bird and dancing brave were beaten at some point)
tbh I think trev talks the most sense, if you have him as a healthy plus in your book why worry about it? of course all the fancy prices now and his price for the guineas and derby is borderline daft. cecil does indeed look at him as a two year old, but that doesn't mean to say that he'll be totally writing off his 3 year old career. he's getting some insurance ready incase he does flop as a three year old by getting the dewhurst in the bag. he does seem ahead of his contemporaries. we'll find out a bit more in the dewhurst. there he'll finally face decent opposition in the shape of saamid and co, not just the trees he's beaten so far. Then we'll really have a good idea of how good he is. as for the whole debate of whether he'll stay or not, I really don't see why it matters, as surely only a fool would take the current price on him to win the derby. |
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Plenty of fools out there.
Gl to those who have backed him for the Guineas. My initial impressions were that he was a Derby horse just because of his size and apparent stamina. But yesterday's run shows he has a bucket load of speed and strength aswell, which is what you need for a Guinease. You cant get away from the fact though that this horse has not on on GF, and GF at HQ can often be like a road, and can be the undoing of many horses and I would actually be surpsied if we got to May and it was quick ground there would be pressure from Connections to put the hose pipe on. |
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the fools comments was to MP about the short Derby price being taken, btw. Not anyone else.
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Bullet Train is not in the same class as Frankel and as mentioned couldn't win a race at any trip since his impressive 1m3f Lingfield Derby Trial win, recently coming last over 1m2f. Does this mean he doesn't get 1m2f now ... Don't be silly. He stays at least 1m3f but has run below par since over all trips.
Bullet Train's 1m3f win was his most impressive in his career and he is nowhere near the class of Frankel. Frankel will get the Derby trip standing on his head his cruising speed is so high, he could have sat behind the leaders yesterday for much much further than a mile, conserving energy and nudged him out at the close. He can be ridden like that in the Derby and will win to become an all-time great alongside Sea The Stars of recent years. |
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the going at doncaster was on the fast side and the going yesterday was at worse the slow side of good according to the times the faster the ground the better this horse will be imo
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You will always get queries about whether a horse showing exceptional pace at a mile will get a mile and a half. We had it with Sea The Stars right up until the race and even connections of the same owners Workforce expressing doubts about the Derby trip ... Remind me of the winning distance and record time he turned in.
This is normal but come a cruising Guineas win if he trains on as hoped, the Derby will be at his mercy. |
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Agree, he is excellent on both but his change of gears will always be seen to best effect on faster ground.
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Watching the race again he was settled beautifully in behind until Queally moved him up, not too keen to get on with it until asked.
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....and off a slower pace up front than you would see in a Derby. No problems settling midfield in the Derby
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Hi celtic sun again
If you think Bullet Train does not even stay 10 furlongs you are wide of the mark, and that is not quite what Henry Cecil said. He clearly stayed 11 furlongs very well indeed and Frankel is pretty much bred for similar amounts of stamina - he just looks quite a lot better. Its true the great man has doubts about Frankel staying, but if he trots up in the 2000 Guineas I personally think his ability to relax and canter in behind before producing the tremndous burst of speed will make him very hard to beat at Epsom and Doncaster. By the way I don't know what the Racing Post or Timeform make of the Royal Lodge, but it again did not look much of a race, with the second having run his best rating of 104 before I think. Of course Frankel did win easing down by 10 lengths or 20lbs, so he is clearly about a 124+ horse. That would go very close to winning many running of the 2000 Guineas and is the best form shown by any 2yo this season. |
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what did you reckon the ground was yesterday croy i had it just about good.
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the lay preacher, whatever the going was, it is still a world away from genuine GF.
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ascot is always the same sint no one can ever suss out the correct going least of all the clerk of the course. but if im not mistaken frankels time was under standard and the fillies race was just over standard so it was defo not as the clerk described it.
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Cecil said he was the best 2 year old he'd had since Wollow - but was at pains to distinguish between pure 2 year olds and those with the potential to be good at 3.
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Why are people saying he is a soft ground horse when this is patently untrue. Cecil and Queally were on record as saying he hated the ground at HQ first time out. Frankel will be seen at his best on quick ground. The whole 2-y-o-only debate is an absurd non-starter. Henry is simply stating the obvious - he's the best 2-y-o he has trained since Wollow. He can't say he's the best 3-y-o simple because he's not 3 yet and hasn't raced yet at 3.
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i did say that johnny and of course they know the horse much bette than me!!im just goin on what i see!!he pounds the ground very hard from what ive seen!
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cryoftruth Joined: 22 Mar 04
Replies: 375 26 Sep 10 08:37 Hi celtic sun again If you think Bullet Train does not even stay 10 furlongs you are wide of the mark, In an interview on ATR after Frankel won at Ascot, Cecil said to Mike Cattermole that in his opinion Bullet Train doesn't really stay 1m2f. Bullet Train won a ridiculously slowly run Derby Trial after leading, this is why he failed miserably in the Derby itself. Frankel will run in the Derby if he won the 2000 Guineas, as the pressure on connections would me immense. |
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unfortunately if he's similar to bullet train, then he may fall apart in his three year old career.
You know I was a bit surprised when cecil said he intended to run him in two big two year old races at the back end of the calendar. That's not normally his modus operandi. Perhaps it's a case of striking while the iron is hot. If you want a 2 year old that looks like he will make a better three year old, then look no further than casamento. He looks a huge horse with plenty of scope and just won the beresford impressively. Now that looks like a horse that'll make a proper 3 year old. The real worry with that one though would be is he going to godawful. Sheik mo should really do the sensible thing for once and keep him where he is. I'm sure frankel will hack up in the dewhurst but his price will probably then collapse even further, maybe to the even money mark. |
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Frankel is a massive beast of a horse, they'll be no problem with him making into a 3yo, it just depends whether he maintains his level ability and whether others catch up with.
There is no doubt where Casamento will be heading this winter, so he'll be a machine to win a Guineas. Look what they've done to Kingsfort ! |
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If we go back to Twice Over, who was the ante post fav for the 2000 Guineas after HRE was retired; His trainer, Henry Cecil wanted to run him in the Guineas, but his owner wouldn't allow it (as he paid the bills) and wanted him to run in the Derby instead. But Henry wasn't keen on the idea, because, being the trainer, he knew that he wouldn't stay 1 1/2 miles. In the end, Henry didn't run him in the Derby. Twice Over went on to be a 10 furlong horse. At this stage, Frankel seems to be better than Twice Over was, but it amazes me how ante post backers retain such optimism, year after year, that they have seen something special and that the horse will run were in the races that they want.
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true Marksman. If Henry says he wont get the trip, then i'd be inclined to believe him.
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saamidd can defo give frankel a run for his money!i prefer frankel too but saamidd has the form, hes beat group winners on thr bidle!HES the one to beat on form!!!interesting to see how frankel handles g/f going!
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It's a general rule that those who miss out at the big prices come on to AP threads and try desperately to pick holes in the form and say what a silly price the horse is and how happy they are to lay him. Deep down, they are, of course, seething having missed out.
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What does 'non staying' mean though exactly
 Does it mean a horse stays 10f and if he goes beyond that he will stop like hes been shot? . [i]Do people really think a Group 1 Miler couldn't win a 0-80 Handicap (off 80) at 1M 4F ?[/i] All it means really is a horse has an Optimum Distance, beyond which he gets gradually less effective, but if he is that superior to the opposition he will still beat them. If Cape Blanco ran a 2 Mile Race vs plodders rated 45-60 he would win in a canter as he would be be simply in a different league and they would not get him off the bridle. There is no way that Njinsky 'stayed' 1 Mile 7 Furlongs , maybe 10f was his best trip , but but his sheer class and superiority more than offset his lack of stamina. So with Frankel , if he is going to be , as many on this thread seem to think , a high 130s/140 horse , then his not staying a mile and half (meaning his optimum trip is 8-10f), won't matter , if as usual , the opposition are, at best low 120s horses . It would only be a problem if there was something else in the field that was 130ish in abilty and had 12f as his own optimum trip. |
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johnnyrant Joined: 14 Feb 07
Replies: 5584 26 Sep 10 18:00 It's a general rule that those who miss out at the big prices come on to AP threads and try desperately to pick holes in the form and say what a silly price the horse is and how happy they are to lay him. Deep down, they are, of course, seething having missed out. cant agree with u there johnny!i myself never bet antepost!but his price is just silly! 2/1 and hasnt even faced a GENUINE G2 horse let alone g1, how often do we see these threads come up after an impressive performance? A LOT! as mentioned when he beats good horses he might deserve 2/1 for the guineas but he should be that to just get there!!hes got 7 months not to get injured and if hes beat in the dewhurst, which is plausable 2/1 backers will have got robbed!! im astonished people are sucked in so easy when we see 'superstars' born every season now!! st nick workforce im happy to let him win the dewhurst and ill just back him at 2/1 on the day if i feel he has a chance and allow eveyone else to have their money tied up in him at the risk that he might actually make it to a race due in 7 months and if he doesnt the bookie get to keep your cash!! eh, no thanks! |
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ilikewavingatbuses, you have missed Dunguib off your list! 6 months ago, he was the wonder horse who supposedly had the Champion Hurdle at his mercy... if only he had run it!
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ilikewavingatbuses Joined: 06 Jun 09
Replies: 4087 26 Sep 10 18:15 johnnyrant Joined: 14 Feb 07 Replies: 5584 26 Sep 10 18:00 It's a general rule that those who miss out at the big prices come on to AP threads and try desperately to pick holes in the form and say what a silly price the horse is and how happy they are to lay him. Deep down, they are, of course, seething having missed out. cant agree with u there johnny!i myself never bet antepost!but his price is just silly! 2/1 and hasnt even faced a GENUINE G2 horse let alone g1, how often do we see these threads come up after an impressive performance? A LOT! as mentioned when he beats good horses he might deserve 2/1 for the guineas but he should be that to just get there!!hes got 7 months not to get injured and if hes beat in the dewhurst, which is plausable 2/1 backers will have got robbed!! im astonished people are sucked in so easy when we see 'superstars' born every season now!! st nick workforce im happy to let him win the dewhurst and ill just back him at 2/1 on the day if i feel he has a chance and allow eveyone else to have their money tied up in him at the risk that he might actually make it to a race due in 7 months and if he doesnt the bookie get to keep your cash!! eh, no thanks! ^ I presume you are talking about the 2000 guineas and not the dewhurst, but he won't be 2-1 on the day. he'll either be shorter than that or any price you want. |