But even if he wins the Dewhurst, there must be at least a 30-40% chance of injury or not making it to the Guineas. I thought he was incredibly impressive coming round the field round the bend - a real wow factor - but at 2/1 he's a definite lay rather than play for the Guineas.

dont really get the 2ing & throwing on here...most of the pro frankles have secured value double fig prices...the ante frankles are saying he is bad value now...i think we would all agree on that...

Casamento won at The Curragh today by four lengths.  The ground was on the soft side and he seems to have a low action.

Bringing up Killer Instinct is a bit unfair. He never did it on the racecourse. One win from six starts and that was at 1/7 in a Nottingham maiden. Frankel's impressively won three out of three. There's no comparison.

Caution is best advised with any horse that saunters home in the R.Post Trophy. Soft ground and that time of year can exaggerate the winner's superiority - I was totally unconvinced by SNA and Crowded House and happy to lay them both for the Guineas.
Frankel is a totally different proposition. We've heard what HRAC has said and seen what he can do – SNA and Crowded House simply didn't have the same visual impact, at least on me.
He doesn't want soft ground and will be better on quicker ground. At Doncaster he clocked a time faster than standard despite having to gallop on his own quite effortlessly to the line.
To say a horse is a lay because he is 2-1 AP during the winter is quite illogical. George Washington was 9-4 and went off 6-4 on the day. I imagine Zafonic was sub-2-1. He is no great value but 2-1 might look big if he wins easily in the Dewhurst. He is only a lay for those who want to lock down a profit having backed him at big, double figure prices for the Guineas and Derby.

for the record i've got money on Frankel anyway, in an eachway double, so not trying to knock him just because I dont have ''Value'' etc.

sintonian Joined: 21 Sep 04
Replies: 7776 11 Sep 10 19:34   


Saamidd for the 2000 and Frankel for the Derby .. 140/1 double

joking aside .. prices are ridiculous ..

Horses going via Conditions races always leave doubts in my mind.

Royal Palace last Royal Lodge winner to win the Guineas in 67.Look elsewhere for your winner.

according to some guy emailing timeform radio, if you timed frankel from the 3 furlong marker and compare it with the qe2, then frankel would have won that race by 4-6 lengths.

however that doesn't of course take into account the fact they went a much slower pace early on in the royal lodge than they did in the qe2. but whatever happens now, i suspect that huge move frankel made around the home bend will be one of the abiding memories of what has otherwise been a fairly mediocre flat season and one short on real stars.

Mister Baileys?

300 up. Should easily make a thousand on this thread by Derby time next year, I reckon. Just wish I'd managed to procure juicy odds on Frankel doing the Guineas/Derby double. Well done to those who did.

The Ascot thing is a bit like straw clutching. Frankel hardly looked like a donkey at Doncaster either, and actually may have run a rating around the same level there in any event.

Don't think any 2yo will impress me more than Arazi at the Breeders Cup tbh that was just unreal. Think this horse could get close though providing Queally  rides him prominently against better opposition.

Bullet Trains best performance was over 1m3f. Frankel is different class and is tanking along on slow ground after a mile I have little doubt he will get 1m4f. The way he cruised in behind off the slow early pace without the jockey having to pull his head off to settle showed the faster pace of a Derby would be perfect for him to sit off the pace to be delivered 2 out. His kick could be half what it is now and it would still be enough at Epsom against slower middle distance horses IMO.

Arazi was exceptional in France before he went over there. Took 2s the Breeders Cup in a double with a winner before the draw was made and couldn't believe my eyes thought he was done with the draw.

eric_morris,At last we agree,funny how its a 2'y old colt winning over a mile now heading the GNS market mind,your 22.46 post is spot on.

personally i think frankel, although apparently v talented is just another overhyped horse like st nick was last season!i mean he won the rp thophy as easy as you like on the bridle as he hit the front!!

frankel looks a speed horse to me and a horse that loves cut!!im just going by my eyes of course and i may be proved wrong in time and thats fine but i think you all should be careful before getting sucked in to this as i see the same comments every year someone puts up  a good performance!!

nathaniel hasnt even won a race yet and he got to within half a length of him on 1st run!i think hes just beat average horses very well so far but he will face stiffer tests soon!!he hasnt even run in a truly run race yet on good ground!you'd go broke backing these horses for guineas and derbys!

wait until he faces a horse that isnt listed class on good ground in a truly run race and they youll find out how good he is!!

Of course pace means something.

A horse that can run that quickly can't win the Derby. Eddery said straight away after winning hte Guineas Zafonic had too much speed to get the Derby trip(and he was right). If Frankel is as quick as what people are saying on here, he won't get the Derby trip.

More on Frankel, including from a sectional point of view:

http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/bloggers/simon-rowlands/simon-rowlands-frankel-set-to-emulate-legendary-namesak-290910.html

requestingflyby Joined: 06 Jun 06
Replies: 41 29 Sep 10 10:06 
Of course pace means something.

A horse that can run that quickly can't win the Derby. Eddery said straight away after winning hte Guineas Zafonic had too much speed to get the Derby trip(and he was right). If Frankel is as quick as what people are saying on here, he won't get the Derby trip.

of course its important but the whole 4-6L faster in final 3f its a load of  crap as yes this may be true but because the pace of the 2 aces wee different it has no baring on who the better horse is, it just shows he can quicken from a slow pace!!it would have been better for us if it was truly run so we could actually see how good he is!!strong pace on good over a mile against g1 horses, lookin forward to seeing it!!

from the nick mordin website:



CAN FRANKEL SHOW THE SAME FORM OFF A STRONG EARLY PACE?

One horse that taught me a good lesson about the effect of pace many years ago was a South African colt called Big Swinger.

Big Swinger was a very athletic horse whose over-abundant muscles made him very good at short burst activity, like a body builder is. He could pick up in sensational style off a slow early pace. He'd quicken up to sprint right away from his rivals and look like a champion. But when he contested a truly run race the finish was run out of him and he'd fold up like a pricked balloon.

Big Swinger never actually won above Listed class despite looking astonishingly good on several occasions in tactically run races against lesser rivals.

I always saw Big Swinger as something of a freak and never thought I'd see his like again. But FRANKEL (32), the winner of last week's Royal Lodge Stakes, reminds me an awful lot of him.

In the Royal Lodge Stakes the early pace was very moderate. They reached the three furlong from home marker a massive 4.7 seconds later than they did in the QEII on the same card. But when Frankel was shaken up and asked to quicken up from there he did so in the most extraordinary fashion. He actually ran the last three furlongs 2.7 seconds quicker than they did in the QEII. I clocked him doing it in 35.7 seconds despite the fact that the going was yielding and the finish steeply uphill. That's bordering on impossible. So it's hardly surprising Frankel was able to run right away from his rivals to score by ten lengths.

Frankel did something very similar at Doncaster on his previous outing when skating thirteen lengths clear over the last three furlongs in a small field at Doncaster where the early pace was slow for the first half mile.

On his debut, the only occasion he ran in anything like a strongly run race, Frankel scrambled home by just half a length in a maiden.

Frankel's half brother Bullet Train has a similar, hyper-muscular physique and shows the same sharp contrast to his form in slow and strongly run races.

If I invoke the sectional timing formula I use to adjust my speed ratings in slow run races I'd have to give Frankel a rating which suggests he'd have gone close in the QEII itself. But in this instance I have to question whether my formula isn't simply producing a hypothetical rating that Frankel could never produce in a truly run race.

If I could be sure that the pace was going to be slow I'd bet Frankel to beat basically anything over seven furlongs or a mile. But things are going to get a whole lot harder for him from now on because he'll be stepping up to Group 1 company where slow run races are uncommon - at least in Britain and Ireland.

If he were mine the race I'd be shooting for with Frankel this year is the Criterium de Saint Cloud. Next year I'd be focusing his early campaign around the French Guineas. Those races are often slow run. But the Dewhurst, the Racing Post Trophy and the British Guineas are usually strongly run affairs.

It will be interesting to see how Frankel holds up when he's asked to go a strong pace from the start. My suspicion is that he'll run like Big Swinger and his half brother Bullet Train and tire in the closing stages.

My theory looks likely to get a good test in the near future as it seems likely Frankel will head to the Dewhurst Stakes for his next run. In that race Aidan O'Brien will surely employ pacemakers to ensure it's a stiff enough test for Zoffany.

Judged by the comments of trainer Henry Cecil he shares my view that there's only an outside chance Frankel would last the Derby distance. I'd be most surprised if he lined up at Epsom. The horse is all about speed rather than stamina.




^ have to disagree with some of this, most noticeably a horse that travel's as well on the bridle as frankel does is most definitely suited by a strong pace. but then it is the mad professor after all [smiley:crazy]

The answer to my question was kayf tara in the gold cup.  The slow pace of the race meant his class told in the sprint to the finish.  I agree with Mythical Prince, we know already that he is suited by a slow run mile, so a mile in France would be ideal.  However, I think Henry Cecil has set his heart on the English 2000 Guineas, and that is where we will see him.  I think we can rule out the Derby, though.