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Helleborine
Helleborine
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I didn't hear that Geoff. No idea as it makes no sense,really.
cheers James. |
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i'm sure it was "the croc" who interviewed Maarek Head before Helleborine ran last time out, so maybe he knows something, my take on it is, if Helleborine doesn't run, then it wouldn't win anyway. cheers.
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Latest comments from Helleborine's trainer Criquette Head-Maarek:
'She's done well and has been working nicely. We will keep our fingers crossed,' said Head-Maarek. 'I think she should run well. I got beat with Hatoof in that race then she won the Guineas, but because you get beat in the first race of the year doesn't mean you can't go to Newmarket. You only get one try in that race. Whatever she does, in principle she is on her way to Newmarket. It looks a nice race.' "She's just fine and everything seems okay with the filly. She spent a nice winter, is physically in good shape and working up to expectations and her work is good. This race is her seasonal debut and she won't be 100 per cent until another race in May." Moonlight Cloud reportedly hasn't grown much during the winter is quite a small filly. The weather forecast for the Paris area is for more very warm weather tomorrow, with a light breeze. The advance going is 'bon' (good). |
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It sounds like there may not be much confidence that Moonlight Cloud has trained on. She's only fifth in the betting on the PMU. I like Nova Step to beat the not fully fit Helleborine.
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Comfortable and, I suppose, a fairly impressive win by Moonlight Cloud - had the run of the race certainly, but hard to see any obvious reason why the placings would be reveresed at N'Mkt.
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That was OK with the likelihood of her being fitter on the day.
I have added MC at 12/1 to cover my total stakes in the race though as she wasn't stopping in front. |
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I wouldnt give up yet if you have backed Helleborine. She wasn't given a hard time and still finished strongly from an inside draw. Arguably she ran a better race than Special Duty did in the Imprudence last year and Mme Head's horses always improve enormously for a run.
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I missed the race.
 Presumably she finished 2nd ? |
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Yup, well held.
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Couldn't get out at a vital time. Probably would have finished closer
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Whilst on the face of it there is no compelling reason to believe that Helleborine will be able to reverse the form with Moonlight Cloud in the Guineas, I'm not too despondent about the result. Bookmakers have cut the winner to a general 8/1 for the Guineas and pushed out Helleborine just a couple of points to around 10/1, and those prices feel about right. The form shouldn't be taken literally, it was just a prep after all, but I suspect it will prove a better race than next week's Nell Gwyn Stakes (for which entries were released today), which looks on paper to be a much weaker event. The winning time was respectable (0.80s faster than the Djebel).
The good thing for Helleborine ante-post backers is that the filly wasn't anywhere near 100% for today's race and she may well improve by around 10lbs on today's performance. Hatoof, for example, improved by 12lbs from the Imprudence to the Guineas in 1992 (according to Racing Post Ratings) and Six Perfections, who was arguably a bit unlucky not to win the 2003 renewal, improved by 9lbs on her Imprudence rating. If Moonlight Cloud improves by the same margin, of course, then Helleborine has no chance of beating her at Newmarket. Trainer Criquette Head-Maarek is far from discouraged by today's performance, saying "she ran very well, but the other filly was fitter. We will see how she comes out of the race. She's in both the Guineas and the Pouliches." I suspect that Criquette would still like to run Helleborine in the Guineas, but Teddy Grimthorpe was typically rather downbeat: "I was a little disappointed. We may have to consider whether she goes to Newmarket or stays at home for the Pouliches. It will depend on how the filly comes out of the race, and on what happens in the other trials."  I hope that Criquette gets her way and that we see Helleborine line up for the Guineas at Newmarket. |
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Having watched the race a couple more times I was more than happy with Helleborine's run remembering that her trainer had warned beforehand she would not be fully wound up (in common with similar stable stars in previous years) and also bearing in mind the very disappointing efforts by stablemates in the last week. In the race itself she was hampered at a crucial stage and was never given a hard time after that, yet was still good enough to finish a clear 2nd behind the admittedly impressive MC who enjoyed the perfect run of the race.
Sister Criquette Head-Maarek declared herself pleased with Helleborine, but issued a warning to those that have backed her for Newmarket. She said "she ran very well, but the other filly was fitter. We will see how she comes out of the race. She's in both the Guineas and the Pouliches." Owner Khalid Abdullah's racing manager Lord Grimthorpe was even more sanguine. "I was a little disappointed. We may have to consider whether she goes to Newmarket or stays at home for the Pouliches. It will depend on how the filly comes out of the race, and on what happens in the other trials." That has to be a worry (mind you in view of the trainer's comments beforehand WTF was he expecting?). |
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Agreed. I thought that Helleborine was given a pretty easy time today once her chance had gone and she is sure to come on considerably for that run.
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Snap
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DD is there anywhere to watch a replay ?
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I cant see anything yet on ATR or youtube.
As the race was shown on RUK as well it ought to crop up on their summary this evening or at the end of the Aintree coverage I would have thought. |
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I've still not seen the run, by the sounds of it both horses are smart on their debuts.
Teddy Grimthorpe's comments are a positive in my eyes, as he was similarly downbeat about SD last year if I remember correctly. Lucky he doesn't train them and is just a mouthpiece! Perhaps Helleborine will drift to 12/1 in the coming days in which case I might tuck in. |
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James, just a point of curiosity, and it is probably pointless, but do you have the quotes from TG after SD's Imprudence run last year ? Would be interesting to compare.
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Criquette Head quotes from last year:
"I think Special Duty ran a good race considering that she needed the run, and the soft ground was also against her. We will make no decision on the [May 2 G1 1000] Guineas until we see how she is and after she works again. I will then discuss plans with Prince Khalid and his racing manager Teddy Grimthorpe." |
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spot the diff
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Teddy Grimthorpe's comments last year: "There is no decision on whether or not Special Duty will go to Newmarket for the 1,000 Guineas for the moment. "We are very aware of the betting market and we will do the best for the filly after taking everything into account. The final decision is up to Prince Khalid. She needed the race and blew a lot afterwards."
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im happy with that she should improve a good few pounds and i expect her to reverse the form if they meet in the guineas, after all it was only a prep to get her ready for may ,just hope khaled abdullah ,teddyg and mrs head agree to go 1,000 route .
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I think maybe this is a case of can't see the wood for the trees, being so caught up in small details- backed and rated the filly before race- your failing to understand the bigger picture. I doubt either is good enough for the Guineas or the Pouliches based on the form of the fillies close up who all finished well. Sorry guys
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Helleborine was the best juvenile filly in France last year, a few pounds ahead of the likes of Espirita and Moonlight Cloud. I have no doubt that the first two home in the Imprudence, which was a strong Gr.3 race (a much better class race, I suspect, than we'll see at Newmarket next week), are good enough to win a typical running of the Pouliches. As to whether they're up to winning a Guineas, we'll have to wait and see: the only ones good enough (or potentially good enough) to beat them, based on last season's form, appear to be Misty For Me, White Moonstone, Hooray (a doubtful stayer), Memory and Havant (in my opinion, of course).
The form of the Imprudence should certainly not be taken literally, but even so it looked a strong trial beforehand: the third Miss Fifty had been beaten 6 lengths by Helleborine in the Prix Marcel Boussac, it's true, but had previously run well in the Gr.3 Prix du Calvados (RPR 101) and was probably much fitter than Helleborine for her seasonal reappearance; the fourth, sixth and seventh were all race-fit; the fifth and sixth were Listed race winners; Wizz Kid was Gr.2-placed last year, Mambia and Izalia were both Gr.3 winners. A solid trial, with the first two (particularly the runner-up) likely to improve significantly. |
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ATR jsut showed a replay of the last 2 furlongs ... obviously it would be great to see the whole race but my first impression was it's not conclusive that Moonlight Cloud would confirm the form. She was out in front and running up the rail.
If Criqutte confirms Helleborine for the race in the next week then i'd be happy to back her at 10/1, probably eachway though. |
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how small did moonlight cloud look to you?
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Surely nobody who isnt already involved will play until we hear something definite about her participation.
(I am rapidly becoming convinced that Teddy G was put on this earth to p1ss me off with his comments. I cant see what else he does  ). |
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She has been beaten by 2 Guineas fillies now so questions over whether she goes French or English Guineas are bound to be asked. The trainers brother may also be giving her the inside line as the race approaches re whether Moonlight Cloud has come on again for the run.
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Agree DD. If Helleborine is confirmed for HQ, or not if that were the case, then that will tell us all we need to know.
It might be prudent to have a cover on Moonlight Cloud. There is still some meat on the bones at 8/1. |
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If anyone wishes to write to Teddy Grimthorpe (racing manager to Helleborine's owner Khalid Abdullah), pointing out why it's still well worth having a crack at the Guineas, the email address is racing@juddmonte.co.uk (but don't expect anything other than a non-committal response...)
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Helleborine last matched at 27 on here - doesn't bode well.[:(]
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Agree 27 doesn't look well (supporters of Misty for Me will have similar concerns) but whatever our opinions of TG et al I very much doubt if they are interested in hoovering a few quid on here. Far more likely we just have to sit tight until the UK trials have taken place..
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Usually it doesn't bode well I agree but I remember Workforce being laid at 20s 5 days before the Derby last year. As DD says, just a case of wait and see, regardless of what happens on here.
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let's be honest here guys, if Helleborine had won in the same fashion as Moonlight Cloud, she would be 2/1 by now, as i said before, if Helleborine doesn't turn up, then it's obvious it isn't deemed good enough, cheers.
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the barin, none of us wood disagree with that. If MC comes over and Helle does not that is a big tip in itself imo which is why it's worth having a few quid cover on MC at 8/1.
My only bets in this race so far is a speculative few quid on Together, but I just liked Helleborine from last season as im sure she could not quicken out of the heavy going behind Misty last season. |
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sint. i agree 8/1 is huge, considering she beat a very good filly easily and has proven she at least has trained on, maybe even better than her 2yo form. 8/1 will be gone by tues. cheers.
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It's not as cut and dried as the video tape looks though the Bairn. If Helleborine is confirmed for the race then we know connections believe they have a good chance of reversing the form. If she is not then, it's a positive pointer to MC. It's that simple,imo.
We had the same arguments last season with Special Duty, and there we even people on the thread saying they were laying her win and place. Absolute craziness. This was a prep race, in early April, when she has ran perfectably respectably. The season is long and hard at the top table, and there is a significant chance the horse will improve tons for the run. 8/1 about MC is just saver material for me personally, not an outright bet. Good luck  [:D] |
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I think people are in danger of reading the form too literally. Moonlight Cloud was clearly the better filly on the day, but it was only a prep race and we won't know which filly is best until they meet again in a 'proper race'. There are numerous examples of classic races where the form of the trials has been turned upside down.
Incidentally, it's worth taking a look at the stats regarding the last 20 winners of the 1000 Guineas. Eight made their seasonal debut in the Guineas, six won their prep race and six were beaten in their prep race (two of them trained by Criquette Head). Of the six that were beaten in their trial, three of them (Hatoof, Sayyedati, Sleepytime) reversed form with the filly that beat them in the trial. Several of the fillies that were beaten in their prep race improved by about a atone or more in the Guineas itself (based on Racing Post Ratings, Hatoof improved by 12lbs, Sleepytime by 16lbs, Lahan by 24lbs). If Helleborine travels over for the Guineas it's because the connections believe she has a chance of beating Moonlight Cloud. |
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*atone = stone!
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One further observation on the Prix Imprudence (to put the race into some kind of perspective): Miss Fifty finished third (a length behind Helleborine), the same filly had finished six lengths behind Helleborine in the Prix Marcel Boussac last season. It's true that the Boussac was run over a mile on very soft ground and the Imprudence was over 7f on good ground, but unless the rather exposed-looking Miss Fifty has made abnormal improvement from two to three (which can't be entirely ruled out, since she also comprehensively reversed form with the disappointing Mambia), I think it's likely that Helleborine ran a long way below (possibly about a stone below) her best form in the Imprudence. If that's the case it's far from certain that Moonlight Cloud will confirm the form in the Guineas, especially in light of the overall record of trial winners in the Guineas in recent years...
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