Cheers for that Sint. I must admit when I first saw his post-race comments I (wrongly) assumed they had something else running in the UK trials. Now I am a loss to follow the train of thought unless maybe they are looking to avoid another clash with Misty and waiting for news on her target (understandable if they wouldn't want to take her on again on soft going but not on good).

Still Kudos to TG for having the politeness to reply to you.

It is interesting to note that Moonlight Cloud and Helleborine have been allotted provisional Racing Post Ratings (RPR) of just 97 and 92 respectively for their performances in the Prix Imprudence.  This compares with Helleborine's RPR of 112 for her performance in the Prix Marcel Boussac last season and suggests (if the ratings are to be believed!) that she ran up to 20lbs below her best at Maisons-Laffitte.  The ratings, which undoubtedly underrate the achievement of the winner (who was given a rating of 107 for her tenderly-handled fourth in last season's Lagardere), seem to be based on the running of Etive, who has been given the same rating as the one she achieved in a Listed race at Deauville on 17 March.  That's the problem with slowly-run races - it's practically impossible to take the form seriously.  Nobody knows whether Moonlight Cloud will be able to reproduce that form in a strongly-run Group 1 race over the Rowley Mile.  Freddie Head hinted strongly last autumn that the only reason he decided to take on the colts in the Lagardere was because he didn't want to run his filly over a mile at that stage of her career.  There remains a slight doubt about her getting a truly-run mile in top company.  At least we know that Helleborine, based on her Boussac run, is a top-class filly with a serious turn of foot who was clearly (for whatever reason) a long way below her best in the Imprudence.  The Boussac form is certainly a long way in advance of what Moonlight Cloud achieved in the Imprudence.  I strongly suspect that she was not as forward in condition as Criquette thought.  Or maybe she simply hasn't trained on as well as we expected her to (which seems unlikely, given her pedigree and the way she had reportedly been working prior to the Imprudence).

There are two possible explanations for the Imprudence result: either Moonlight Cloud is a potential superstar and will take all the beating in the Guineas (the eric_morris interpretation) or else the slow pace of the race renders the form highly dubious.  I tend to the latter interpretation, whilst admitting that Moonlight Cloud is undoubtedly a filly of considerable potential.

Together runs in the sales races at Newmarket over 10f tomorrow. I didn't see that coming!!

Yes that's true SJ , but Together was campaigned in a similar way to Lilly Langtry as 2yo who She ran in/won a Sales race over here and then went to the States. But on the face of it she does look below Guineas class.

unclepuncle, you're correct, it's certainly possible to win the Guineas with a filly that only just gets a mile - the Rowley Mile is quite an easy track compared with, say, Ascot (which is an altogether stiffer test of stamina).

re: Together.  She's running over 10f and I'll be amazed if they decide to drop her back to a mile in the Guineas, regardless of what happens today.  She's by Galileo out of a mare that won over 11f in France, which makes her closely related to Jan Vermeer.  Her pedigree screams middle distances.

The key aspect, surely, is that Special Duty achieved a rating of 117 as a juvenile (in the Cheveley Park Stakes) and only needed to run to a rating of 111 to win the Guineas (just 3lbs better than her Prix Imprudence rating).  Moonlight Cloud's rating of 97 is nowhere near good enough to win a Guineas: she will need to improve on that by about 17lbs to win an average Guineas.  That's the problem with these slowly-run races - they're impossible to rate because of the proximity of moderate horses like Miss Fifty and Madly In Love.  It's no surprise that Moonlight Cloud won so easily, but it doesn't necessarily signify that she's good enough to win a Guineas (or even that she is certain to confirm the form with Helleborine if they reoppose in the Guineas, which now seems unlikely).

perhaps criquet head doesn't want to rain on her son's parade.just a thought.

[:D]

At the moment this is a race where it is easy to find a reason NOT to back a horse rather than positive reasons to support one. It has all the hallmarks of going to a more unconsidered one. Personally if I had to make call it would be that it is going to France

Yes, sadly she is not one of the 30 fillies left in the Guineas at yesterday's forfeit stage.

It's possible that the Boussac run has left its mark, although it was a long time ago now and you'd have thought she'd have got over a hard run by now.  On the other hand, it remains to be seen how Misty For Me performs in the Guineas (if, indeed, she runs), the Boussac third (Rainbow Springs) was disappointingly beaten in a maiden recently, and the fourth (Mambia) ran poorly in the Imprudence.  At least the fifth (Galikova) won nicely on her recent seasonal debut, but perhaps the form isn't quite as good as many of us initially thought.

I thought the Imprudence looked quite a competitive renewal on paper, but several of the better fillies ran disappointingly, so the form looks rather dubious (backed up by the slow overall winning time).  But I wouldn't take anything away from the winner, who looked very smart and has unfortunately frightened off Helleborine's connections.  I'm not sure I believe that Helleborine "needs more time", unless of course she hasn't come out of the race quite as well as they had hoped.

I'll admit to having been hopeful regarding Helleborine turning up but the signs were there some while ago. IE didn't come over last year at all / trainer's preferences for 1000 Guineas fillies.
Fully expect her to now go to the French version and go well.

^ Apologies for all the typos

Agree by the way appalling spelling.

Yes Eric I follow your every move because you are the greatest - I just managed to back Nadal to win Wimbledon last year for £5k

Judging by your immediate responses to nearly every post I make I think there is only one stalker on here Eric -  I see it as a form of flattery so you keep at it

I'm still spending my Steinbeck and Zaynar winnings[smiley:crazy]

I really seem to have gotten under you skin Eric - you must either love me or see me as some kind of threat.

I think we're witnessing a breakdown here.

Yes James I suppose deep down I dont really believe the ''needs more time'' argument either. But it will be interesting to see how Misty For Me performs, wherever she runs next.

As far as I am aware several of us have Moonlight Cloud covered at 8/1, whilst DD has 12/1 and you and Ben have 33/40's.

Wouldn't be a bad result truth be told and i'd like to thank Teddy Grimthorpe for replying to my Email!

Is she going French jair1970 just checking with you?