I think horses who have been beaten in their trial vary and previous form can help you assimilate the merit of a trial possibly more than a line through a placed horse on totally different ground where she may have improved and Helleborine not. Special Duty had tremendous form against the colts against Canford Cliffs after his massively impressive Coventry win over a trip we knew Canford would be suited by (staying not a question). Similarly, Moonlight Cloud against the colts ran a tremendous race against Wooton Bassett last season so we can give credence to her run giving it a solid look the other day. Helleborine has now been beaten by Misty For Me who could turn out an Oaks filly and now outkicked with every chance by Moonlight Cloud there doesnt look to be any early indicator to reprise her from her defeats where she has not found the toe of a Guineas winner at the close (fitness could not be used as an excuse against Misty as it is being now). Helleborine had been going well at home and her 2nd is probably a true reflection of her position in the pecking order against what she has raced against.

Of course she would also have Havant, Memory, APOB selected (his best may not be Misty judging by her weakness in the Guineas market), White Moonstone, Laughing Lashes, I Love Me to overcome as well as the 2 that have already beaten her.

Connections may see Helleborine as the 2nd best French filly now and see an excellent opportunity of winning the French Guineas now Moonlight Cloud is Newmarket bound.

Punters on her would be wise to broaden their book on the Guineas now if they havent already.

Of coursewe all know Special Duty was beaten a length in her trial on very soft ground which she was not at all suited to whereas Helleborine had her own ground in the Imprudence.

It's also worth noting that although the race was run a bit quicker than the preceding Prix Djebel, it was still a poor time, as a result of the early crawl which favoured the leader.

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xi0bil_prix-imprudence_sport

special duty also won the guineas because it was  the worst 1000 i can recall

Well, all I can say is that I have clearly been watching a different filly from the one described above.  I watched all of Helleborine's races last year and I can assure you that she not only travels really well but she also has a tremendous kick.  Even in the very soft ground on Arc day she quickened impressively to get upsides the winner but just couldn't maintain momentum in that ground.  Criquette Head-Maarek thinks she is an exceptional filly.  There is no doubt at all that Moonlight Cloud had the run of the race last time and was almost certainly quite a bit fitter than Helleborine, who ran a fine race considering she met traffic problems at a crucial point and was eased in the last 100 yards when her chance of winning had gone.  In my opinion they are two very smart fillies and it's far too early to write off the Boussac form.  At this stage I wouldn't like to predict which one would come out on top if they were to reoppose in the Guineas - I doubt if there would be more than a length in it either way.

The weakness of Misty For Me in the Betfair market for the Guineas is a mystery, as she has always been considered the top filly at Ballydoyle since her two Group 1 wins.  Perhaps she has been slow to come to hand or maybe she is giving signs that a mile might be on the sharp side for her now, but there is plenty of speed in her pedigree.

PS  I'm not sure I would agree that Moonlight Cloud ran a 'tremendous race' against the colts in the Lagardere.  It was certainly a very promising performance, as she was never asked a serious question and could probably have finished closer to the winner, but the bare form is hard to evaluate: if you use Tin Horse (runner-up in the Prix Morny on totally different ground) as a guide, it looks a very smart race, but I very much doubt if the unlucky-in-running Tin Horse ran up to his best.  Maiguri and Utley failed to enhance the form in subsequent races.  The winner Wootton Bassett had looked potentially smart in winning two valuable sales races, but the horse he beat on both occasions (Galtymore Lad) was only Listed class.  Special Duty achieved a lot more as a juvenile than Moonlight Cloud (not least her impressive win in the Cheveley Park Stakes).  Don't get me wrong, I'm a big fan of Moonlight Cloud and backed her for the Guineas at 40/1 last September (straight after the second of her two wins), but I honestly don't think the Imprudence result should be taken at face value.

The notion Helleborine does not have a turn of foot or ''kick'' is lazy and ignorant. Go and read the RP commentary from in-running and you'll see the word ''Quickened'' several times, even in Very Soft going.

Why because they are removing rose tinted glasses?

The 2 Guineas fillies she has met she has failed to even put up a fight at the close, couldnt find a turn of foot to get on terms let alone past them. She would need to find abnormally large improvement to win a Gunieas. Moonlight Cloud looks much the better type for Newmarket won with a lot in hand.

couldnt find a turn of foot to get on terms

Eric I repeat - have you even seen the Boussac ?

bornistheking .... I have said previously on here I dont think Helleborine wants a strongly run mile such as at Newmarket as she may not fully see it out.

The commentator in the Boussac also commented on her being outstayed by Misty after the race. An easier run French Guineas will suit her better than Newmarket imo and she wont be facing as good a field. Moonlight Cloud was very impressive and will love a strong run straight mile as the trainer has observed ... would agree with that there is no reason Helleborine should turn around the form with her over a strongly run straight mile at Newmarketon what we have seen imo of course.

Does she remind anyone of Proviso - who looked really good as a 2 year old, then got beat by an O'Brien horse (Listen in the Fillies Mile) and then subsequently kept running well, but getting beat at the top level until she won four consecutive Grade 1's in the States last year (like many a European import over there)...

i agree with all erics' comments, Moonlight Cloud is a serious filly, i am a great admirer of Helleborine, but their is no way she will beat Moonlight. cheers.

Bear in mind that the winning time for the Imprudence (1:26.10) was slow for the conditions.  The time was much slower, for example, than Elusive Wave's winning time two years ago (1:23.60) on good to soft ground, or Magic America's winning time in 2007 (1:24.50).  It's much easier to quicken from the front off a slow early pace (and consequently harder for those behind to make up ground off a slow early pace when the leader is also quickening).  I'm sure that the various ratings available will show that Moonlight Cloud has yet to produce a performance on a par with Helleborine's in the Prix Marcel Boussac.  The jury is still out, as far as I'm concerned, regarding which of the two French fillies will come out on top in the Guineas.

i agree james hellborine ran a very good prep in my eyes  and that is all it was, a stepping stone to he target lets hope she takes her chance in the newmarket version.. if she does its fairly safe to assume mrs head thinks she can reverse the form with moonlight cloud and given her record  she wouldnt send her to newmarket unless she thought she would go very close she has drifted to a big price now but with the uncertanty she cant be backed again  untill we get a clue as to plans where she is going. i said before the imprudence that i would be happy with a similar race to special duty and nothing has changed ,it is a bit offputting that teddy g was a bit dispondant but mrs head seemed happy enough and that will do for me.

sint, regarding good to firm ground for Helleborine, she's never raced on anything firmer than good, but her pedigree suggests that she will be fine on faster ground.  Her dam New Orchid acted well on good to firm ground (albeit over middle distances) and is a half-sister to Dewhurst winner Distant Music, useful 10f filly Fragrant View and middle distance handicapper Mirthful (all of whom acted well on good to firm ground).  The sire Observatory was versatile with regard to ground conditions and certainly acted on good to firm (won the Jersey Stakes on officially good to firm ground) though was perhaps best with a bit of cut (eg when he beat Giant's Causeway in the QEII); his progeny overall don't have specific ground requirements, his best offspring (by far) Twice Over acts well on a fast surface.  Helleborine's full sister African Rose raced mostly in France with cut in the ground (her best two performances were on soft ground) but she acted well on good ground (winning a 7f Listed race on good ground) and ran OK in her one and only start on a good to firm surface in the July Cup (ran on without troubling leaders, beaten three lengths).  There is no reason to suppose that Helleborine won't be at home on good to firm ground, indeed she may well improve for racing on a faster surface.

cheers James.

Foyles, yeah I know, someone laid me a tenner at 20/1 yesterday.

Keith, it depends on whether you think there are genuine excuses for it.

The ground was officially Very Soft in the Boussac, and for me eyes she quicked but then got outstayed. And her last run was a prep, even if marginally disappointing. The winner is very decent in her own right and logically you can expect signigicant improvement from Helleborine (going on trainer patterns).

If they decided to send her over or not, we'll know.

Plenty of money for Moonlight Cloud, today. Only one firm left going 8/1.

Having watched the Prix Marcel Boussac again (naughtily at my desk when it's clearly nsfw) you might well be right. Helleborine was gliding and perhaps didn't go past Misty for Me as she should've.

My point was more of a general, Monday afternoon musing tbh. I'm pretty obsessed with cognitive biases and try to make sure I'm at least aware of when I'm falling prey to them (many are obviously hard-wired & can't be avoided).

Pace will be key in the 1000 guineas. It's a mouthwatering race...and I wish you all the best with your bets. I'm gonna keep an open mind until the day and then put my each way buttons on.

I'm pretty obsessed with cognitive biases

having found a second thread in 5 minutes with a Keith Lard mention of 'confirmation bias' I was about to suggest the same thing! 

The email response I got from Teddy was pretty uncommital and repeated what he said after the race in France which was that she is unlikely to run. They will announce something in the next fews days.

Of course, they are perfectably entitled to change their minds etc so dont take it as read.