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Helleborine
Helleborine
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I would think so yes. Her price probably has a lot to do with the connections aswell.imo.
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Proportional was short a couple of years back also wasn't she?
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Still plenty of 16s. The 8/1 looks a bit of an over-reaction.
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Exemplify only 5th of 6 BTW.
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Would expect Ladbrokes to be better than that, funnily enough it was them who were the standout 8/1 about Special Duty after the Cheveley Park, once bitten and all that
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In their defence they are the only firm to have taken Exemplify out of the market.
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Ben, I agree with you about Moonlight Cloud, she looks a very smart filly and won in a fast time. She's entered in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere but not the Prix Marcel Boussac. She beat Putyball on debut last month and the runner-up won today at Longchamp.
I've viewed a recording of the Prix d'Aumale. They went no pace for the first six furlongs, with Helleborine held up in last place, travelling easily. The leaders started to quicken entering the straight, Helleborine came there travelling strongly under hands and heels, quickened impressively and soon put daylight between herself and the others to win easily. I thought she was very impressive today. The winning time was very slow, reflecting the slow early pace, but it was still 3.4 seconds faster than the Prix de la Masseliere. You can still get 16/1 for the Guineas, which looks good value to me, especially in view of what happened half an hour later... Helleborine's stablemate Exemplify finished only fifth, beaten about 3½ lengths, in the Prix de la Masseliere half an hour later. I've not seen a replay (Equidia have mixed the race up with a recording of a trotting race from Strasbourg!), but the bare result has clearly dented Exemplify's pretensions to being a Guineas filly. We'll see whether there was a valid excuse. |
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Cheers James/DD. Will have a closer look at Helleborine, 16/1 could be a good starting point for thsi race, just doubts over her showing up perhaps?
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Helleborine[:(] reportedly heads next for the Prix Marcel Boussac on 3 October (as expected). "She is a very easy ride and has now confirmed how good she is", said Stephane Pasquier. "Helleborine did it very nicely and was always travelling well," said Abdullah's racing manager Teddy Grimthorpe, before adding "The filly then quickened nicely under a hand ride. She will now go for the Marcel Boussac."
There were no obvious excuses for Exemplify at Longchamp today. She was held up by Pasquier and pulled hard early in the race (there was no pace), but she had plenty of room if she had been able to quicken. She probably used up too much energy in the first part of the race and had nothing left at the business end, which is very disappointing. It had been raining at the course earlier in the afternoon, but I doubt whether much rain got into the ground and it's hard to blame the ground conditions, despite Teddy Grimthorpe's post-race comments: "She never went in the ground and was not happy. She will now be put away for the season and definitely won't run in the Cheveley Park." In retrospect I think Pasquier would have been better off letting the filly bowl along in front: she didn't seem to be suited by hold-up tactics off a slow pace. Freddie Head's filly Moonlight Cloud was very impressive in the second race and now reportedly heads for the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere. It's hard to know what she beat - the second, third and fifth were all newcomers, and the fourth Uldiko had form figures of 8657616586 and had been well beaten in Listed contests (including tailed-off last of eight behind Mambia on penultimate start). The other runner parted company with his jockey soon after the start. But the winner showed a lot of speed and a superb turn of foot and won very easily indeed. She looks a very smart filly. I was so taken by the performance that I have backed her speculatively for the Guineas (I was quoted prices ranging from 12/1 to 40/1). Although she's by Invincible Spirit I think she'll get a mile: her half-brother Cedar Mountain (by Galileo) was a useful 12-14f winner and her half-sister Lakuta (by Pivotal) won over 9-10f; her dam Ventura (by Spectrum out of a half-sister to Generous and Imagine) won twice over a mile. Helleborine and Moonlight Cloud are two exciting prospects. |
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No idea why the 'scared' [:(]emoticon appeared in the earlier comments
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Three of Criquette Head-Maarek' four 1000 Guineas winners contested and won the Cheveley Park.
The fact Helleborine heads to the Prix Marcel Boussac next has to be a huge worry as her trainer has a proven MO when the English Guineas is the main objective for the start of her charges' three-year-old campaigns. BTW Any advice on the best French websites for cards and form? The Racing Post's miserable subscription service can't even stretch to publishing racecards the night before meetings. |
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Thanks James, glad to see you agree about Moonlight Cloud, really like this one myself although not sure about an English classic.
Elbows, any one of Paris Turf, Zeturf, France Galop or Geny are useful sites for French Racing. Obviously pmu.fr for live tote odds. Paris Turf has photos of the race panning out which can be useful. |
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Oh Frogs Racing for English race reports
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French race reports in English I mean
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I take the point about the Cheveley Park Stakes, but Criquette's other Guineas winner Hatoof ran in the Boussac (beaten by a short head). Proportional, who won the Boussac in 2008, would have run in the Guineas if she had performed better on her three-year-old comeback. Two of Criquette's other Boussac winners went on to run in the Newmarket Guineas: Loving Claim won the Boussac in 1997 and ran in the Guineas (was sent off joint-favourite with Cape Verdi); Macoumba won the Boussac in 1994 and ran in the Guineas (behind Harayir). In addition, Roseanna ran in the Boussac and came over for the Nell Gwyn a few years ago (would have run in the Guineas if she had performed better). Etoile Montante was runner-up in the Boussac and ran in the French Guineas, but that was largely because they didn't want to take on Six Perfections (her Boussac conqueror) again. I think there's a very good chance that Helleborine will come over for the Guineas if she wins the Boussac.
For French racing I use the following sites: www.france-galop.com www.zeturf.com www.frogsracing.com www.equidiavideo.fr |
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As both Ravinella and Special Duty won both the 1,000 and the Pouliche there must be a chance that Helleborine (always assuming she is as good as we all hope at this stage) would go for both.
Even if it all fizzles out she counts as another excellent spot by James. Moonlight Cloud's trainer to date has been pretty reluctant to cross the pond, however Mr Strawbridge might have something to say about that. For now with Helleborine and Memory (anyone can have an off day ) in my AP book I will wait for some indication of possible future plans before adding her. |
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Wouldn't rule out Memory yet tbf, looks like a good position you're in, nice one
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Memory is pretty good value now at 12/1 (was awful value at 5/1 pre-Moyglare).
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A mid to late May foal by a sire who's produced only 1 horse rated above 118.
Priced up on connections. |
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Thank you Jamesp, once more, for an excellent thread with tremendous insight and value. Your knowledge and fairness sets you apart on this forum. Here's hoping Helleborine is as good as she looked today. I'm not sure I agree with you though about Memory - I think she's a 2yo. But then, I'd be stupid to argue too much with you....
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Was just trying to find some race replays of this horse on google and it linked me straight back to this thread..It appears Jamesp knows more about this horse than google..Good thread i jumped on ship at 21 thanks
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Just added White Moonstone at 12/1 to the other 2 at 25s.
I very much hope thats the AP book sorted for a while at least |
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DD, do you know the last horse to win the Guineas that won over 1m as a 2yo by any chance .. ?
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I'm pretty sure either Salsabil or Shadiyid did, mind you that's going back a fair bit.
Over the last few winters I have been worrying about whether Natagora & Special Duty would stay the trip. At least with the 3 in this year's book that is less of a concern  |
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Recent 1000 Guineas winners who won over a mile as a two-year-old: Finsceal Beo (2007), Kazzia (2002), Bosra Sham (1996), Hatoof (1992), Shadayid (1991), Salsabil (1990), Miesque (1987), Midway Lady (1986), Oh So Sharp (1985). In addition, Speciosa (2006) won over 7½f and was only beaten a length in the May Hill over a mile. Ameerat (2001) was also only beaten a length in the May Hill. Sleepytime (1997) was an unlucky third in the Fillies Mile (beaten 1½ lengths).
It's much commoner for 1000 Guineas winners to have won over a mile at two than it is for 2000 Guineas winners to have done the same. |
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Thanks for the links jamesp and ben10.
The point re Hatoof is a good one, a run in the Boussac certainly doesn't preclude a horse from turning up, or even winning, at Newmarket. I'd just have a strong preference for the Cheveley Park over the Boussac as a stepping stone to successes in 1000 Guineas. Here's hoping she gets there. |
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Following that last point, I guess it's because the Fillies Mile and Prix Marcel Boussac are prestigious Group 1 races that are targeted by trainers with their classic prospects, whereas the only significant Group 1 race for juvenile colts over a mile is the Racing Post Trophy (there is also the Criterium International, but that race is usually run in a bog!). In place of the Fillies Mile and PMB, the colts have the Group 2 Royal Lodge (over a mile) and the two Group 1 races over 7f (the Dewhurst and the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere).
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hi james, ive missed the boat again ! but still may jump on ship at a later port ! ( hellebourne)will probably wait till around chevely time, have backed white moonstone ' 20s at mo,thus far, would like to know your thoughts on this one, she looked even more impressive to me today than she was in her previous two starts, and the 1000 looks to be making up to a more open race next year,have doubts about memory making a 3yo though, your thoughts again, please ol mate 1
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White Moonstone looked really good but with the possibility of the draw bias at Newmarket slashing your odds in half if you are drawn on the wrong side of the course it is dubious whether you should take under 20s for any horse in the race at this stage. We got lucky with Special Duty she wouldn't have won on the other side.
It seems ridiculous your hopes could be trashed in this way for such a major race after waiting so long. |
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cheers James.
Draw bias only came apparent once the rain had arrived tbf. So it was a combination of the two not just the Draw. |
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enpekd, I was very impressed by White Moonstone at Doncaster and I agree with you that she looked even more impressive than on her previous start at Newmarket. She will surely take all the beating in the Fillies' Mile (Theyskens' Theory rates the main danger there). I'm inclined to ignore Memory's run at the Curragh and reckon she must hold a good chance in the Cheveley Park Stakes if able to recapture her midsummer form (Pontenuovo and Hooray rate the main dangers). See separate thread on the 1000 Guineas.
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It's the acid test for Helleborine on Sunday. There are eight runners for the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac at Longchamp:
1. Helleborine (C.Head-Maarek) S.Pasquier -111 2. Danedream (P.Schiergen) A.Starke -133 3. Mambia (J.Boisnard) D.Bonilla -421111 4. Misty For Me (A.O'Brien) J.Murtagh -0121 5. Nitza (C.Head-Maarek) C-P.Lemaire -3143 6. Rainbow Springs (J.Gosden) W.Buick -2 7. Galikova (F.Head) O.Peslier -1 8. Miss Fifty (U.Suter) M.Guyon -36232 The ground is likely to be testing, which won't be ideal for Helleborine, but she has already won over course and distance on officially 'soft' ground. Mambia is a very progressive filly, who beat Miss Fifty in the Gr.3 Prix du Calvados last time; she should cope with the step up to a mile, but the form leaves a bit to be desired (the third Fork Handles was well beaten in the Fillies' Mile next time). Misty For Me has arguably the strongest form, having won the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes last time out (the third Together ran a blinder in the Fillies' Mile next time out): if she handles this much softer ground and makes the running she could prove hard to pass. Galikova and Rainbow Springs are interesting once-raced contenders but have it all to prove in this exalted company. Galikova, a half-sister to Goldikova, won a traditionally strong mile maiden for unraced fillies quite comfortably but in a slow time (1:45.90 on yielding ground) and she is not considered to be in the same league as stablemate Moonlight Cloud (who tackles the colts in the Gr.1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere half an hour later). Rainbow Springs finished a long way behind Frankel first time out and appears to hold no chance on that showing, and whilst John Gosden clearly thinks she has a lot more to offer, it's surprising that he's not chosen to run one of his promising maiden winners such as Morning Charm. Danedream, Nitza and Miss Fifty all need to improve considerably to get competitive. Misty For Me and Mambia provide a stern test for Helleborine, but I'm hoping that Criquette Head-Maarek's filly will prove up to the job on the testing ground. She was very impressive last time over course and distance in the Prix d'Aumale, and if she's as good as I think she is she has a great chance of going into the winter unbeaten. |
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What price do you think she will go off James..Im looking forward to this race more than the Arc..
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Cheers for the write up James. The improving Mambia does look the danger, I'm not familiar with the trainer though, anyone know anything about him? Would need Helleborine to be odds against for me to be interested in getting involved
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Hi ben. All I can find on the French sites is that he is 4th in the trainers' table with 60 wins at least, he got the 60th on Sept 10th. He trains near Rennes, a former jockey. His family and his wife's family seem to have been in the horse trade for a long time but he seems to be making a name nationally.
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Cheers for the info
Tempted to have an each way play at 14s, will look a bit closer now |
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james all the best to you tomorrow. I had a look at her run there the last day and she's a lovely looking filly, clearly with plenty of ability. I hope she goes well for you
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Massive change of mind from me, gone with Galikova, good luck all players
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Beaten by a good one there.
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Yeah although Misty maybe stayed better, which could be considered a good thing for Guineas backers next year?
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