Horse Antepost
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Can we discount a number of horses for the 2000 Guineas based on their actual date of birth?...i.e profile by date of birth
I quite fancy Haatef to get into the mix, based on what he did in the Dewhurst. But looking at recent results he'd be breaking the mould a bit regard him being a late foal.
Any other horses that should be treated with possibly a bit of caution?... and when would the forum say is typically the lastest date a horse could be born as a fullly matured foal without its chances of winning the 1st classic being hindered by its subsequent development to mature horses?
I quite fancy Haatef to get into the mix, based on what he did in the Dewhurst. But looking at recent results he'd be breaking the mould a bit regard him being a late foal.
Any other horses that should be treated with possibly a bit of caution?... and when would the forum say is typically the lastest date a horse could be born as a fullly matured foal without its chances of winning the 1st classic being hindered by its subsequent development to mature horses?
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Hi LUFC really fancy Haatef as well, have been backing all rates each way from 33's down and would have been a close third with a clear run in the dewhurst. Will have a look at foaling dates of previous winners
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2006 George Washington - 1 Mar 2003
2005 Footstepsinthesand - 15 Feb 2002 2004 Haafhd - 18 Feb 2001 2003 Refuse to Bend - 17 Mar 2000 2002 Rock of Gibraltar - 8 Mar 1999 2001 Golan - 24 Feb 1998 2000 King's Best - 24 Jan 1997 1999 Island Sands - 27 Jan 1996 1998 King of Kings - 27 Feb 1995 1997 Entrepreneur - 7 Mar 1994 |
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Hello Racegoer
It's these trends that have stopped me going in further on Haatef. Managed to get a few bob on him at big enough prices which I'm happy with, and now he's attracting support with the high street boys. He did show enough at 2 to say he should be in with a shout. I'll be having a bit on one or two of O'Briens more likley types too to compliment him in my bets. Now that HRE is out, Coolmore may go in all guns blazing on this one. I could easily see Admiralofthefleet, in the Tabor colours & Duke of Marmalade in the Magnier colours....both of whom fit in the birthday range of what I can see as a typical winner, and Adagio in the Smith colours. The Coolmore boys like to be all represented in these sort of events. It would seem that May foals rarely take part, and when they do they tend to get stuffed....not good for Haatef!...or Strategic Prince! |
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Horses late foaled to have placed (1,2,3,4) in 2000 Guineas since 1997. Born after 1st April:
1997 - Poteen - 7 Mar 1994. Starborough - 15 May 1994 1998 - Lend a Hand - 4 Apr 1995. 1999 - Enrique - 29 Apr 1996. Brancaster - 6 Apr 1996. 2000 - N/A. 2001 - Minardi - 3 May 1998. 2002 - Redback - 7 Apr 1999. 2003 - Zafeen - 25 Apr 2000. Norse Dancer - 3 Apr 2000. 2004 - Snow Ridge - 9 Apr 2001. 2005 - Kandidate - 15 Apr 2002. Oratorio - 29 Apr 2002. 2006 - Olympian Odyssey - 19 Apr 2003. Araafa - 8 Apr 2003. |
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*Ignore Poteen.
Agreed the record for May foals is generally poor, but he has been well backed recently and on his 2yo form he should stand a good chance of getting placed. I wonder how many May foals have attempted/been forward enough for the guineas in the last few years - and if so how many were fancied/no-hopers. |
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I backed Duke of Marmalade for this after Goodwood - so would be happy if he was entered. However, IMO both he and Admiralofthefleet look stayers to me.
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Probably not too many, but given that both Haatef and Strategic Prince ran very well in the Dewhurst in what is argueably one of the strongest classes in recent years they look to be ahead of the game a bit.
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Haatef should definately finish in front of Strategic Prince with a clear run on 5th May.
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theracegoer
Thanks for the research. It's nice to see a forumite contributing and being positive. |
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kingscem - no problem. On another note, Sp0rting 0dds are the only ones still going 20s (biggest price) so if you fancy it each way - no TBP market up here yet - get on there. It has been well backed this week which is always a positive ;)
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Interesting thread. Where can I find the foaling dates of this year's classic contenders please?
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Stream
if you pull up the "CV" of a horse in the RP website, it'll show you when the horse was foaled |
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I'll do it for the main contenders:
Teofilo - 9th February 2004 Dutch Art - 18th March 2004 Mount Nelson - 7th April 2004 Strategic Prince - 9th May 2004 Authorized - 14th February 2004 Battle Paint - 29th March 2004 Haatef ;) - 11th May 2004 Adagio - 7th April 2004 Duke of Marmalade - 12th March 2004 Asperity - 5th March 2004 Eagle Mountain - 25th February 2004 Admiralofthefleet - 15th February 2004 Mythical Kid - 21st April 2004 |
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A great thread - I haven't seen anything on this topic in the last year and it's fascinating to see that no horse has won the Guineas if foaled After early March for ten years. Surely it can't be this simple?
I know Mordin has a trend that focuses on the phrase 'good looking sort' in raceform, and that last year only GW qualified. |
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Do we know what Mordin considers a "good looking" sort this year?
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Racegoer...he probably fancies all of them!
at one point last September, he had Admiralofthefleet at the head of the Ballydoyle pecking order, only for HRE to usurp him after the Longchamp run. ..and then he was wetting himself over Teofilo on his Dewhurst run. |
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I know what you mean. Almost every horse he records seems to run "an exceptionally fast time".
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Surely Teofilo would be a 'good sort'?
Or even the holy grail: 'nice colt'! |
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Very interesting thread. Is it a similar story for the other classics? Perhaps even reversed for something like the St Ledger (ie later foals doing better)
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racegoer - would you consider Thousand Words in your list - march foal.
Looked to me the type to improve considerably with a winter behind it, and Hills usually has his string firing early. |
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just checked my (admittedly incomplete, only up to August-ish) records
Admiralofthefleet was described by Raceform as a 'good sort' |
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...here's the Derby winners
2006 Sir Percy - 27 Jan 2005 Motivator - 22 Feb 2004 North Light - 1 Mar 2003 Kris Kin - 5 Mar 2002 High Chaparral - 1 Mar 2001 Galileo - 30 Mar 2000 Sinndar - 27 Feb 1999 Oath - 22 Apr 1998 High Rise - 3 May 1997 Benny the Dip - 1 Jan 1996 Shaamit - 11 Feb 1995 Lammtarra - 2 Feb 1994 Erhaab - 24 May 1993 Commander in Chief - 18 May 1992 Dr Devious - 10 Mar 1991 Generous 1990 Quest for Fame |
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1991 Generous - 8 Feb
1990 Quest for Fame - 15 Feb |
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This is an interesting question as according to the weight for age scale a normal 3 year old is one and a half lenghts better (3lbs) on the first of April than he was on the first of March and thereafter improves at a rate of two pounds per month through the summer.
Logically you would expect a 15 of May foal to be 9lbs inferior to a 15 January foal if you go by this scale. While there is definitely some advantage I doubt if it is of this magnitude in most cases. Foals born later thrive quickly from birth due to warmer weather and fresh grass in firmer paddocks. Early foals often take a while before they really 'take off'. Of course a lot depends on the individual, more compact types attain the strenght to operate their frame efficiently much quicker than scopier sorts, who tend to show more improvenment from two to three and throughout their three year old career. It is a mistake though to go entirely on appearance. Sometimes you see a three year old that is well grown and furnished, so much so that you would imagine he could compete with a similarly rated four year old without the WFA allowance. However despite appearances they always have a fair bit of strenghtening up to do between three and four (even if it doesn't show up as actual added muscle). |
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proctor - already backed thousand words last season before it raced at york. won well at newmarket over 7f and then dissapointed on soft in the RP trophy. Would say looked the type connections would aim at the Derby, but lets hope Barry Hills sticks him in the craven then guineas.
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thanks bestinshow - would you consider haatef as fairly compact? Interesting how Derby horses are all such early foals.
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The racegoer,
I haven't seen Haatef, I live in Ireland and concentrate on Irish Racing. I don't really think the telly is any good for assessing horses. He must be a fairly forward sort to show the form he did last season. |
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He's an Irish horse - trained in Ireland - go and see him! I'm joking of course. He did well when so inexperienced at Newmarket having only had one previous start. The smart money suggests he must be fairly forward. Had another 20 each way with Sp0rt1ng 0dds as they're still showing 20/1.
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racegoer - tho' words not entered in derby, would need supplementing, dont think enough stamina in pedigree anyhow. Hope he improves enough over winter to take chance
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me too.
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the racegoer,
Sorry, you are right of course, I remember that one of Kevin Prendergasts running in England now, and he very rarely sends two year olds over. I didn't see his Irish race as I had gone home before the last that day. Interesting horse with a very decent trainer. |
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Unfortunately I don't know much about the trainer - is he any relation to Paddy Prendergast? The last 20s has now gone (I grabbed as much as possible). With HRE I cannot see this horse being out of the first three.
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Kevin Prendergast is one of the senior trainers in Ireland (hope he'll forgive me). I think he trained Oscar Schindler, who was the best looking horse I've seen the day he won his first Irish St Leger.
If the horse is good enough, Kevin is good enough. Kevin's other claim to fame is he shares a birthday with me - 5th July. :) |
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Not one winner foaled after St patricks day in the past ten years......the way the markets now forming, and with the worry with Teofilo missing a bit of training we could now get a late foaled winner of the Guineas this year.
or will one of the early foals that hasn't been seen yet this year burst through on the 5th of May? |
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an excellent thread imo
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This seems a powerful trend BUT
Where are this year's contender's bar Teofilo? Interesting |
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Just had a browse and bar the obvious you've got the Godolphin pair. Dijeerr & Mofarij.
Yet the boys in blue rarely wake up til Ascot these days so... |
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Nick Mordin has" Followmyfootsteps" noted as a possible group 1 winner! He has entries in both Irish and English guineas!
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The Sporting Life
Systems by Nick Mordin 7th October 1995 Foaling ... Win % as 2-y-o January ... 8.26 Early Feb ... 11.93 Late Feb ... 11.72 Early Mar ... 11.29 Late Mar ... 10.66 Early Apr ... 9.66 Late Apr ...8.67 Early May ... 7.96 Late May ... 7.48 "If the foaling date of a two-year-old can tell us anything, it does not concern its maturity. Rather it concerns the horse's potential class and stamina. Foals born in January tend to be low-class sprint types. Foals born in February tend to be higher-class types suited to longer trips. March foals are a bit above average in terms of class and stamina. April foals are pretty much representative of the population as a whole. And May foals, like those born in January, are more likely to be cheap sprint sorts." "Looking at the statistics, I would say it appears very likely that the owners of the very top broodmares like to send their mares to a stallion as early as possible, but not before March. This means theit foals get born in February or early March. The owners of such broodmares tend to be the biggest and best customers, so the stud farm managers naturally try to accomodate them." [my comment - the breeding season starts on 15 February, and the gestation period is eleven months, giving an estimated earliest foal birth date of 15th January in the following year (just after the official 1st January birthday)] |