|
By:
1997 Benny the Dip - 25 Mar
|
|
By:
Major Cadeaux - 3-y-o (1 Mar 2004) ch c
looked every inch a miler in that race. May have been a slow early pace but he quickened well enough |
|
By:
Diamond Tycoon, the maiden winner also is a March Foal.
Has a horse ever won a guineas without winning or at least have run in a group race? |
|
By:
Kings Best half length second in his racecourse debut in the craven and then turned over Giants Causeway by 3/4length
|
|
By:
Keano
Kings Best had already won twice as a two year old, and on RPR and Topspeed ratings looked a likely Guineas type by the August of its 2yo career |
|
By:
agreed...it pays to look at 2yo form
|
|
By:
Golan ran once before winning the Guineas - a maiden win at Chepstow.
|
|
By:
fancied haatef and then remembered this thread. :(
damning evidence |
|
By:
how difficult would it be to make a mistake concerning foaling,many a good greyhound was born jan 1st,any reason horse racing is different,nothing that can be so easily distorted in a very corupt sport should be taken as FACT.
|
|
By:
I certainly wouldn't let a foaling date put me off backing a horse for the Guineas. I haven't done the research, but I wouldn't mind betting that, statistically speaking, late foals do no worse in the Guineas than they ought to, relative to the percentage of them in the wider thoroughbred population. Haatef's birthday wouldn't put me off backing him one bit.
An interesting angle, nevertheless. |
|
By:
An amazing amount of posts for such an irrelevant stat.
|
|
By:
I had a look at the winner and the stats said back anything by Stoute or O'Brien only, I discounted the 2nd because last year the trainer said it was the horse 2yo campaign that mattered....and I didn't think Dutch Art would stay.
DoM 4th Eagle Mountain 5th were the 2 I backed |
|
By:
The first 6 home were foaled before 31st March
|
|
By:
does it work on the 1000 as well ?
|
|
By:
pretty strong stat then!
let's all remember it for next year! |
|
By:
I had a quick sift through past winners of the Derby to see if this stat also holds. It appears not to, with a few winners over the past 20 years being foaled in April and even late May.....but it would seem that if Archipenko (30th May) wins he'd be the youngest winner to do so from the records I could get off the RP website.
Commander in Chief 18th May & Erhaab 24th May fly the flag for the late foals Not sure whether there's any data or record of which is the youngest horse to win the Derby...anyone know. |
|
By:
46. The earliest-foaled Derby winner on record this century was Captain Cuttle, the 1922 victor who was born January 11, while the latest was the May 25-foaled Pont LEveque, successful in 1940.
|
|
By:
Archipenko would have to break a record it would seem then.
|
|
By:
it seems so- be interesting to see how the stats are for the irish derby- a few weeks makes all the difference at this stage perhaps
|
|
By:
2000 Guineas winner 2007
**NEY REBEL (IRE) 3-y-o (16 Mar 2004) b c Not mentioned in the reseach above afaik. |
|
By:
Seems to be a bit of interest in Myboycharlie for next years 2000 Guineas.
It may be worth noting that his foaling date was 20th April. |
|
By:
I still think this is statistically irrelevant, yet charmingly cerebral b0llocks. Can anyone definitively prove otherwise, in case I end up fancying a 'latie' ante-post? It's fair enough to highlight that no late foal has won since Zafonic (did the 'trend' not affect him?) but how have late foals done as a total percentage of Guineas runners against statistical expectations? It would be even more interesting to grade it against market expectations. Can anyone do that? Finishing position in relation to market position with respect to foaling date? And then when you think you have evidence, just check to make sure your Ariens and Taureans didn't turn out to be total mince anyway that would never have won a Guineas even if he'd been getting 2st off the 'earlies'.
At the moment I think this is the best post on the thread... Atavus 26 Apr 16:58 An amazing amount of posts for such an irrelevant stat. ...but I'm willing to be convinced that the stat is of statistical importance. |
|
By:
I might sound like a** here.
I'm not trying to be :) |
|
By:
Hmmmmmmmm !
It is not surely relevant to a certain extent though? No-one would treat it as an outright stat for winner selection, etc. But ten consecutive years is a strong trend in anyone's book. The statistical element is a different ball-game: select a cut-off date e.g. March 19 (my birthday :0 )and then: No. of runners to take part / place / win, for before and after that date as a % Perhaps the last 20 years would produce solid enough results. ?:| |
|
By:
A poser indeed. Another thing that troubles me about it. If a trend concerning age has an effect shouldn't it have this effect on all 3yo races at the time of year in question? Does this hold true? Does it work in the 1000 Guineas? The Craven? The Kentucky Derby? The Greenham? You get the idea. A further question that needs answering IMO.
I'm not even convinced it really is a trend, as such, for all that I can't argue against the evidence. I mean, of the late foals that underperformed in the Guineas, which of those improved later in the season to a level that would have seen them win the Guineas. And if there are such cases, then is there a valid explanation aside from the possibility of a late foal having found improvement? Is it a trend or simply a set of horses with arbitrary birthdays running to their respective abilities, give or take whatever limited scope for improvement with age they might posses? |
|
By:
Hello Chaps
agree that there may not have been too many late foals running in the Guineas, and this could be a source of skewing the pattern, but that pattern still exists. I'd say if you called Coolmore today wanting to book one of their top stallions for next March or April you'd be politely turned down, because they'll be fully booked by their preferred breeders......but July/ August and they'll be much more accomodating. The breeders certainly think that late foals at at a disadvantage in their classic year, hence the prevelance of foals born in late Jan, through Feb and into early March fetching the heftiest prices at the sales. Physical maturity is recognised in racing, and this is reflected in the way 2yo races early in the season are over 5 and 6f, and then (I think by Royal Ascot) 7f, with the mile only exceeded late in the season. And the classics 1m, 1m 4f, and then 1m 6f What a late foal may achieve over 6 and 7f at 2 may not truely reflect their limitations for the following years 2000 Guineas where the pace is fast and Newmarket's Rowley mile is a tough finish. Physical (and mental) development impacts in many other ways too. I remember a report a good 10years+ ago into the typical professional footballer. The vast majority of whom were born September, October and November.....school terms are based around a September year start. I myself will continue to treat late foals with a degree of caution. |
|
By:
This topic interested me so I had a closer look at the last 18 renweals of the English 2000 Guineas.
Foaled after 1st April - 93 runners 1 winner - 1.075% Strike Rate 9 placed - 9.67% SR 81 unplaced Foaled before 1st April - 220 runners 17 winners - 7.72% SR 45 placed - 22.5% SR 158 unplaced Zafonic who was the only horse to win after being foaled after March 31st was only born a day later on the 1st of April. Obviously with there being more early foaled horses the strike rate should be greater than that of the late foaled horses. However with the late foals 93 runners you would expect more winners and more placed horses than their current tally. That is of course if you assume the date a horse is foaled has no impact on how horses perform in the 2000 Guineas. ...................................................................................................................... Well maybe thats because late foals go off at bigger prices than their early foaled rivals? In the last 18 renewals there has been 22 late foaled horses than have gone off at single figure prices. In comparision there has been 57 early foaled horses go off at single digit prices. The ratios of runners to single digit priced runners is very similar for both early and late foals suggesting the market at least doesnt disciminate against late foals. Late foals SP below 10/1 22 runners 1 win - 4.5% SR 3 placed - 13.6% SR Early foals SP below 10/1 57 runners 14 winners - 24.5% SR 10 placed - 17.5% SR ...................................................................................................................... It would appear to me at least that it is a significant disadvantage to be foaled after the 31st of March. This particular stat would then suggest the likes of Myboycharlie 20th April, Famous Name 3 May, Lizard Island 15th April and Tajdeef 13th April are up against it if they are to win the 2000 Guineas. =========================================================== Now im going to go a little off topic but ive been looking at the past runnings of the 2000 Guineas to see if I can see any strong patterns. 15 of the last 18 winners of the 2000 Guineas had made their debut after Royal Ascot. Of the three who made their debuts before Royal Ascot they were all trained by A P OBrien and had won the Railway Stakes - King Of Kings (1998), Rock Of Gibraltar (2002) and George Washington (2006). 17/18 Went off at a single digit SP on debut. Only [b**ney Rebel[/b] @ 10/1 has broken this stat in the last 18 renewals. 18/18 had at least finished in the money (first 4 places) on debut. 13/18 had won first time out. Of the other five all bar Tirol (1991) had then gone on to easily break their maiden next time out, winning by at least two lengths. 18/18 Not run in handicap company. 18/18 Sire stamina influence at least (7.5) 12 of the last 18 winners had run in either the Champagne Stakes at Donny, National Stakes at the Curragh, the Dewhurst at HQ and the Gimcrack at York. As there isnt a list of horses entered in the 2000 Guineas im going to be looking at the horses entered in the races mentioned above and try to come up with a selection based on the stats, breeding and form. ...................................................................................................................... The stats rule out the first three in the betting with some bookmakers Myboycharlie, Henrythenavigator and Winker Watson. Minus the obvious deadwood the stats leaves the following horses. Atlantic Sport, Beret Rouge, Captain Brilliance, Cat Junior, Fast Company, Frozen Fire, McCartney, Minted, New Approach, Rio De La Plata, Sharp Nephew, Skadrax, Tanweer and Unquenchable Fire For my money Frozen Fire will be taken down the Derby route as will New Approach. McCarthey will probably be a typical Mark Johnson Royal Ascot horse for something like the King George VII Stakes. Captain Brilliance disappointed in his maiden first time out but showed that to be all wrong when winning comfortably LTO. He beat some a couple of rivals who had plenty of fancy enteries and he did it well. He runs in the Acomb tomorrow and that will give us a better idea. The fact that he isnt even listed on Betfair suggests great things arent expected though. Tanweer could be anything with his trainers record of improving his horses but strictly on the form of his maiden he cant be fancied. The field was bunched at the finish and they didnt look anything special and only his stable mate Conduit back in 7th had any worthwhile enteries. The time also was only 0.4sec faster than the 2yo seller later in the day. Of the Meehan runners Cat Junior appears to have been touted as the yards best 2yo but strictly on what they have shown its difficult to split them. However being by Storm Cat out of a Sadlers Wells mare he catches the eye on breeding out and looks very interesting. Atlantic Sport and Skadrax are closely matched on the form of their Ascot maiden. That looked a decent maiden with the front three in the market dominating the betting and then the race. Cat Junior was withdrawn from that race because of the soft ground. The two A Fabre trained horses Minted and Beret Rouge look very interesting as do their enteries in the the Dewhurst. The French trainer has had 4 runners in the Dewhurst with 3 winning the race and two of them followed up in the 2000 Guineas. Rio De La Plata was an impressive winner at Goodwood and is another very interesting condender. The form of the Vintage Stakes looks strong with the 2nd Lizard Island the winner of the Railway Stakes, the 3rd Donegal hacked up in his York maiden and the 4th Scintillo was 3rd in the Washington Singer Stakes at the weekend. Despite this Rio De La Plata made them look very average and as he was out in front on his own for almost two furlongs he idled and can be judged as value for his two length winning margin. The worries are though that connections talked about going to America for the Breeders Cup Juvenile and if he ran there I doubt they would come back but instead go for the Kentucky Derby. If the Guineas is his target though he could go very close. That leaves me with a final list below and I shall be following their fortunes with interest. Rio De La Plata Cat Junior Minted Beret Rogue |
|
By:
Sublime work, Jaws.
I remain unconvinced about the foaling date issue on a couple of points. The first one I mentioned earlier on this topic. Of those late foals that were prominent in the market, which had the form going into the race to justify such a position and more importantly, which subsequently showed form good enough to win an average Guineas? For instance, it would defy logic to suggest that Minardi's (5/1) failure to win the Guineas had anything to do with his 3 May foaling date. The fact is that he never showed any subsequent form to suggest he might have improved on that position later in the year (unless we assume that late foals are permanently disadvantaged until they reach full maturity). My second area of scepticism was touched upon by AR earlier in this thread: No-one would treat it as an outright stat for winner selection I doubt many people would disagree with that statement. But beyond that I just can't see that it would have a deciding influence in relation to all the other variables at play. If you feel a horse genuinely has the form to win a Guineas then worrying about minutiae like foaling dates seems to smack of overanalysis to my mind. As far as things to consider go, this would be foaling date would be well down the list below things like form, timefigures, going, physique, market confidence and all the other things that go towards making a selection. All that said, I have a great deal of respect for those who have uncovered this angle. I may dispute it's usefulness, but without wanting to sound pompous I absolutely applaud the contrarian spirit with which it was conceived. I remain to be convinced, but if you feel it is something to bear in mind then the very best of luck to you. :) |
|
By:
The last 3 posts:
Excellent imo. Will add something of far lesser value to the pot in a bit... :) |
|
By:
...which was simply the figures Jaws provides are extremely eye-catching -- for that
reason alone if you had one that you did really fancy, like SLB says, with a late F-date you'd have to be concerned about him placing never mind winning. The correlative aspect is that it is obviously physically very demanding for any horse to win the 2000, it is easy to observe how many get nowhere near the heights they suggested, or were suggested for them, at 2 - or at least it takes many a good chunk of the season to even begin to fulfill their potential. (Others know far more than me about equine physiology obviously). From a betting angle, the F-date would be high in my considerations for next year, and the one I'm interested to see run next - Majestic Marauder - is a February boy! :p |
|
By:
Haatef, Adagio and Strategic Prince all ran below significant market expectations this year
All failed the test. |
|
By:
The first six all passed
|
|
By:
That was pretty conclusive
|
|
By:
As the 2000 Guineas discussions were building up, I thought I'd revive this thread.
Some may deride the logic, but I think last years result gave a fair bit of credibility to the theory. I haven't looked in detail at the entries for this year yet, but I know that Henry THe Navigator, Winke Watson & New Approach all fit the bill regards birthday. ...feel free to continue the scorn or add value to the thread |
|
By:
IBN KHALDUN (USA) 3-y-o (14 Feb 2005) ch c
|
|
By:
Jupiter Pluvius = 30th March :0
|
|
By:
jupiter pluvius just about makes it. 30th march.
|
|
By:
I'm a card-carrying agnostic, but nevertheless...
New Approach - 18 Feb Raven's Pass - 17 Feb Fast Company - 18 Mar Ibn Khaldun - 14 Feb Winker Watson - 19 Feb Jupiter Pluvius - 30 Mar Rio De La Plata - 26 Mar Henrythenavigator - 28 Feb Myboycharlie - 20 Apr Confront - 11 Feb Amaakin - 12 Apr Twice Over - 16 Mar Calming Influence - 21 Mar Bruges - 18 Jan Plan - 13 Apr Gothenburg - 23 Mar Atlantic Sport - 12 Feb Stimulation - 15 Feb ...and so on. |
|
By:
henry all the way
|
|
By:
i was born on the 4th of may, do i get in?
|